• 제목/요약/키워드: Demand Estimation Method

검색결과 287건 처리시간 0.028초

차두시간분포 분석을 통한 고속도로 설계용량 산정모형의 개발 (Freeway Design Capacity Estimation through the Analysis of Time Headway Distribution)

  • 김점산;박창호
    • 대한토목학회논문집
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    • 제26권2D호
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    • pp.251-258
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    • 2006
  • 본 연구에서는 개별차량의 차두시간분포 분석을 통해 고속도로 설계용량 산정모형을 개발하였으며 연구결과를 요약하면 다음과 같다. 교통류 기본관계와 차두시간 분포특성을 분석한 결과, 1) 개별차량 자료로부터 작성한 속도-교통량 관계는 선형을 이루지 않고 상당한 편차가 있는 분포를 이루고 있었으며, 2) 속도별 차두시간의 통계적 분포는 Pearson type V 분포의 형태로 추정하였을 경우 통계적 검정값이 가장 우수하였다. 새로운 고속도로 설계용량 산정모형은 기존 미국 도로용량편람의 용량의 정의에 본 연구의 결과인 속도별 최소차두시간의 통계적 정의를 포함시킴으로써 개발하였다. 새로운 고속도로 설계용량 산정모형에 의해 설계속도별로 산정한 용량수준을 기존의 용량편람에서 제시한 용량과 비교한 결과, 본 연구에서 제시한 도로설계 시 기준용량은 설계속도 80km/h 이하에서는 기존 용량편람보다 낮게, 설계속도 106km/h 이상에서는 기존 용량편람보다 높게 평가되었다. 더불어 본 연구 결과와 기존 용량편람의 큰 차이점은 용량을 확률분포로 정의함으로써 도로 설계 시 용량수준을 유연하게 적용할 수 있다는 사실이다. 다시 말해 본 연구는 도로설계 시 차로수 산정에 있어 기존의 단 한대의 추가 수요가 발생하더라도 한 차로를 추가하여야 하는 비효용에 대한 이론적 반론을 제시하고 있다.

균질화 기법을 이용하여 기공이 있는 이차전지 극판의 대표 기계 물성 도출을 위한 연구 (Estimation of Representative Mechanical Property of Porous Electrode for Secondary Batteries with Homogenization Method)

  • 표창민;김재웅
    • 한국기계가공학회지
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    • 제21권9호
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    • pp.85-91
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    • 2022
  • The demand for electric vehicles has increased because of environmental regulations. The lithium-ion battery, the most widely used type of battery in electric vehicles, is composed of a cathode, an anode, and an electrolyte. It is manufactured according to the pole plate, assembly, and formation processes. To improve battery performance and increase manufacturing efficiency, the manufacturing process must be optimized. To do so, simulation can be used to reduce wasted resources and time, and a finite-element method can be utilized. For high simulation quality, it is essential to reflect the material properties of the electrode by considering the pores. However, the material properties of electrodes are difficult to derive through measurement. In this study, the representative volume element method, which is a homogenization method, was applied to estimate the representative material properties of the electrode considering the pores. The representative volume element method assumes that the strain energy before and after the conversion into a representative volume is conserved. The method can be converted into one representative property, even when nonhomogeneous materials are mixed in a unit volume. In this study, the material properties of the electrode considering the pores were derived. The results should be helpful in optimizing the electrode manufacturing process and related element technologies.

ArcHydro를 이용한 GIS기반의 관개시스템 네트워크 모델링 (Network Modeling of Paddy Irrigation System using ArcHydro GIS)

  • 박근애;박민지;장중석;김성준
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2006년도 학술발표회 논문집
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    • pp.323-327
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    • 2006
  • During the past decades in South Korea, there have been several projects to reduce water demand and save water for paddy irrigation system by automation. This is called as intensive water management system by telemetering of paddy ponding depth and canal water level and telecontrol of water supply facilities. This study suggests a method of constructing topology-based irrigation network system using GIS tools. For the network modeling, a typical agricultural watershed included reservoirs, irrigation and drainage canals, pumping stations was selected. ArcHydro tools composed of edge, junction, waterbody and watershed were used to construct hydro-network. ArcHydro Model was then designed and the network was successfully built using the HydroID. Visualization using ArcHydro tools could display table property of each object. ArcHydro Model was linked to Agricultural Water Demamd and Supply Estimation System (AWDS) which developed by Korea Rural Community and Agriculture Corporation (KRC) to extract information of the study area. And menu of supply facilities information, demand analysis and supply analysis constructed for information acquisition and visualization of acquired informations.

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멀티프로세서용 임베디드 시스템을 위한 UML 기반 소프트웨어 모델의 분할 기법 (A Partition Technique of UML-based Software Models for Multi-Processor Embedded Systems)

  • 김종필;홍장의
    • 정보처리학회논문지D
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    • 제15D권1호
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    • pp.87-98
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    • 2008
  • 임베디드 시스템의 하드웨어 구성요소들에 대한 성능 고도화가 요구됨에 따라 이에 탑재될 소프트웨어의 개발 방법도 영향을 받고 있다. 특히 MPSoC와 같은 고가의 하드웨어 아키텍처에서는 효율적인 자원의 사용 및 성능의 향상을 위해 소프트웨어 측면에서의 고려가 필수적으로 요구된다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 임베디드 소프트웨어 개발과정에서 멀티프로세서 기반의 하드웨어 아키텍처를 고려하는 소프트웨어 태스크의 분할기법을 제시한다. 제시하는 기법은 UML 기반의 소프트웨어 모델을 CBCFG (Constraints-Based Control Flow Graph)로 변환하고, 이를 병렬성과 데이터 의존성을 고려한 소프트웨어 컴포넌트로 분할하는 기법이다. 이러한 기법은 임베디드 소프트웨어의 플랫폼 의존적인 모델 개발과 태스크 성능 예측 등을 위한 자료로 활용할 수 있다.

환경부 8일 유량‧수질 자료를 이용한 SS오염부하량 산정의 한계점 분석 (Limitation Analysis on Estimation of SS Pollutant Load using Korean Ministry of Environment's 8-Day Interval Flow and Water Quality data)

  • 김태구;유종원;조형익;한정호;이동준;정영훈;양재의;임경재
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제32권2호
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    • pp.149-162
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    • 2016
  • In recent years, there has been demand for precise estimations of pollutant loads on nationwide scale for the development of appropriate site specific (watershed specific) policies to reduce the negative impact of pollutant loads. River flow data and water quality data that were previously collected by various research institutes and universities for specific research purposes for a limited period was utilized in this study. However, only TMDL 8-day interval flow and water quality data were available in national scale. Three watersheds were selected and pollutant loads were calculated by two methods i.e., Numeric Integration (NI) method and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Subsequently, the results were compared to determine the appropriate method for monitoring nonpoint source networks nationwide. The SWAT model was calibrated and its estimated daily flow data were used in the NI method with estimated sediment data for 8-day monitoring data for three watersheds. The results indicated that the quantity of pollutant loads estimated with the NI and SWAT are different to some degrees especially during the summer season for all the three study watersheds. Thus, more frequent sampling of water quality is needed for nonpoint source pollutant estimation.

찢김에너지를 이용한 자동차용 방진 부품의 내구수명 예측 (Fatigue Life Prediction for Automotive Vibroisolating Rubber Component Using Tearing Energy)

  • 문형일;김호;우창수;김헌영
    • 한국자동차공학회논문집
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    • 제20권6호
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    • pp.100-106
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    • 2012
  • Recently, the demand to acquire and improve durability performance has steadily risen in rubber components design. In design process of a rubber component, an analytical prediction is the most effective way to improve fatigue life. Existing methods of analytical estimation have mainly used an equation for fatigue life obtained from fatigue test data. However, such formula is rarely used due to costs and time required for fatigue testing, as well as randomness of rubber materials. In this paper, we describe fatigue life estimation of rubber component using only the results from a relatively simple tearing test. We estimated fatigue life of the Janggu type fatigue specimen and the automotive motor mount, and evaluated reliability of the proposed method by comparing the estimated values with actual test results.

부순모래를 사용한 레디믹스트 콘크리트의 배합설계 및 강도추정방법 (Strength Estimation of Ready-Mixed Concrete Using Crushed Sand)

  • 서진국
    • 한국산업융합학회 논문집
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    • 제2권1호
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    • pp.45-52
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    • 1999
  • It is difficult to keep the balance of supply and demand for natural aggregates in recent years, because natural resources have become to be almost exhausted. Crushed stone is already used for coarse aggregate instead of river gravel at present. Now, crushed sand or sea sand should be used for fine aggregate, because natural sand also has been exhausted with a few exceptions around Nakdong River. The sea sand has a lot of problems which are the corrosion of reinforcement bars, the investment of facility for cleansing salt and the cost increase due to the insufficiency of industrial water. Therefore, it is necessary to produce and to utilize the crushed sand very actively, but some material properties which are related to water absorption, strength and chemical durability, prevent from determining the generalized criteria because its rocks make much differences in its physical and chemical characteristics. In this paper, fundamental physical properties of crushed sand, which comes from Daegu Subway construction fields, have been investigated for the usability on basic material of concrete. The optimum replacement ratio and the strength estimation method of crushed sand replacing natural sand also have been presented here through the compressive strength test of ready-mixed concrete cylinders.

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배전계통 적정 신뢰도 유지를 위한 설비교체 순위 평가 (Component Replacement Ordering Evaluation for Proper Reliability Maintenance in Power Distribution System)

  • 이희태;김재철;문종필;추철민
    • 대한전기학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 대한전기학회 2005년도 제36회 하계학술대회 논문집 A
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    • pp.48-50
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    • 2005
  • New environment change of electric power system focused in consumer's energy supply and demand. But electric power reliability preservation and reliability improvement countermeasure also need for long-term. It is need that change equipments that is composing electric power system in well-timed time and by maintaining, prevent breakdown beforehand and prevent consumer's power interruption by equipment fail. However, as only quantitative estimation is available by reliability estimation method that is presented in existing, it is no to use in dictionary fault prevention. Therefore, applied optimum reliability preservation through existent equipment fault data analysis of electric power system in equipment replace side, and this when maintain equipment replace of electric power system for reliability preservation using responsiveness analysis to base ordering evaluate. In existing about main equipment plain that this paper is power system the valued failure rate use this by score and precedence of electric power system equipment for replace of system considered expense.

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Gaussian noise addition approaches for ensemble optimal interpolation implementation in a distributed hydrological model

  • Manoj Khaniya;Yasuto Tachikawa;Kodai Yamamoto;Takahiro Sayama;Sunmin Kim
    • 한국수자원학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국수자원학회 2023년도 학술발표회
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    • pp.25-25
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    • 2023
  • The ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) scheme is a sub-optimal alternative to the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) with a reduced computational demand making it potentially more suitable for operational applications. Since only one model is integrated forward instead of an ensemble of model realizations, online estimation of the background error covariance matrix is not possible in the EnOI scheme. In this study, we investigate two Gaussian noise based ensemble generation strategies to produce dynamic covariance matrices for assimilation of water level observations into a distributed hydrological model. In the first approach, spatially correlated noise, sampled from a normal distribution with a fixed fractional error parameter (which controls its standard deviation), is added to the model forecast state vector to prepare the ensembles. In the second method, we use an adaptive error estimation technique based on the innovation diagnostics to estimate this error parameter within the assimilation framework. The results from a real and a set of synthetic experiments indicate that the EnOI scheme can provide better results when an optimal EnKF is not identified, but performs worse than the ensemble filter when the true error characteristics are known. Furthermore, while the adaptive approach is able to reduce the sensitivity to the fractional error parameter affecting the first (non-adaptive) approach, results are usually worse at ungauged locations with the former.

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Time-Series Estimation based AI Algorithm for Energy Management in a Virtual Power Plant System

  • Yeonwoo LEE
    • 한국인공지능학회지
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.17-24
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    • 2024
  • This paper introduces a novel approach to time-series estimation for energy load forecasting within Virtual Power Plant (VPP) systems, leveraging advanced artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms, namely Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA). Virtual power plants, which integrate diverse microgrids managed by Energy Management Systems (EMS), require precise forecasting techniques to balance energy supply and demand efficiently. The paper introduces a hybrid-method forecasting model combining a parametric-based statistical technique and an AI algorithm. The LSTM algorithm is particularly employed to discern pattern correlations over fixed intervals, crucial for predicting accurate future energy loads. SARIMA is applied to generate time-series forecasts, accounting for non-stationary and seasonal variations. The forecasting model incorporates a broad spectrum of distributed energy resources, including renewable energy sources and conventional power plants. Data spanning a decade, sourced from the Korea Power Exchange (KPX) Electrical Power Statistical Information System (EPSIS), were utilized to validate the model. The proposed hybrid LSTM-SARIMA model with parameter sets (1, 1, 1, 12) and (2, 1, 1, 12) demonstrated a high fidelity to the actual observed data. Thus, it is concluded that the optimized system notably surpasses traditional forecasting methods, indicating that this model offers a viable solution for EMS to enhance short-term load forecasting.