• Title/Summary/Keyword: Demand Estimation

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Study of Peak Load Demand Estimation Methodology by Pearson Correlation Analysis with Macro-economic Indices and Power Generation Considering Power Supply Interruption

  • Song, Jiyoung;Lee, Jaegul;Kim, Taekyun;Yoon, Yongbeum
    • Journal of Electrical Engineering and Technology
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.1427-1434
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    • 2017
  • Since the late 2000s, there has been growing preparation in South Korea for a sudden reunification of South and North Korea. Particularly in the power industry field, thorough preparations for the construction of a power infrastructure after reunification are necessary. The first step is to estimate the peak load demand. In this paper, we suggest a new peak demand estimation methodology by integrating existing correlation analysis methods between economic indicators and power generation quantities with a power supply interruption model in consideration of power consumption patterns. Through this, the potential peak demand and actual peak demand of the Nation, which experiences power supply interruption can be estimated. For case studies on North Korea after reunification, the potential peak demand in 2015 was estimated at 5,189 MW, while the actual peak demand within the same year was recorded as 2,461 MW. The estimated potential peak demand can be utilized as an important factor when planning the construction of power system facilities in preparation for reunification.

An Study on Demand Estimation for Lifetime Sports Facilities (생활체육시설의 수요에측에 관한 연구)

  • Min, Young-Gi
    • Journal of The Korean Digital Architecture Interior Association
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    • v.3 no.2
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    • pp.30-38
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this study was to analyze the demand estimation erection of lifetime sports facilities for making an accurate estimate of its demand on the basis of the rate of the people participating in lifetime sports activities. Participation rate was determined on the basis of the fact-finding survey [by the Ministry of Culture and Tourism(2000)] as a basis research on facilities demand, and its demand was calculated by making an estimate of facilities demand. An estimate of facilities demand was made in the equation by participation population, facilities demand for each person, sports space area for each person, time of sports, cycle of sports, possible time to use of sports space. Facilities demand for each person by sports event is the following: $swimming;0.03m^2$, $basketball;0.045m^2$, martial arts(taekwondo, judo, korean fencing);0.003 $75m^2$, $aerobics;0.0289m^2,\;health;0.00326m^2,\;badminton;0.00323m^2,\;tennis;0.01429m^2,\;soccer;0.1112m^2,\;squash;0.01323m^2$.

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A REVIEW ON THE DEMAND ESTIMATION MODEL FOR THE PEDIATRIC DENTISTS IN KOREA (소아치과 전문의 수요추계 모형에 관한 고찰)

  • Lee, Moon-Young;Jeong, Tae-Sung;Kim, Shin
    • Journal of the korean academy of Pediatric Dentistry
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    • v.34 no.1
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    • pp.43-52
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    • 2007
  • The supply and demand planning the pediatric dentists is earnest, because of the start of the dental specialist system on 2008 and aging society with low fertility. Therefore in order to develop the model, that is adequate to estimate demand for the pediatric dentists, a studies on the supply and demand planing of other health manpower were reviewed. The obtained results were as follows : 1. The health demand method was appropriate for demand estimation of the pediatric dentists. 2. There was independent variables needed for demand estimation model: prevalence, utilization rate, referral rate, fertility rate, productivity, annual working days, and so on. 3. Since statistical data for application of these variables was insufficient as result of searching, questionnaire researching and discussion of specialist may be necessary. 4. Each independent variables should be inducted into an equation by using a adequate regression model and then estimated.

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A Study on the Needs Level for a Demand Estimation Model in Knowledge Administration Activities (지식행정 활동의 수요예측 모형을 위한 요구수준 진단)

  • Kim, Gu
    • Knowledge Management Research
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.23-47
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    • 2005
  • This study is performed the multinomial logistic regression with the officials needs level about a component of knowledge administration for drawing a demand estimation model in the knowledge administration activities. This study is not that an activity and domain of knowledge administration is to apply and to operate uniformly it in public sector, one is suggested an application with a demand diagnose of knowledge administration in order to saw a course of the knowledge administration programs to suit a function and role of public administration. A result of this study is that an activity and domain of the knowledge administration is different from a component of it namely, knowledge creating, knowledge organizing, knowledge sharing and distribution, knowledge utility, and knowledge store. And the officials individual characteristics, administration agency, a kind of business, and a function and role of work are different from demand of knowledge administration. Also, the practical use of KMS (knowledge management system) is not so high in public sector. Accordingly, the tools of knowledge administration will deliberate on a consolidation with the existing system in the device.

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The Rearch Of Method in the Appropriate number of Demand and Supply of OMD (한의사인력(韓醫師人力) 공급(供給)의 적정화방안(適定化方案) 연구(硏究))

  • Lee, Jong-Soo
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine
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    • v.19 no.1
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    • pp.299-326
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    • 1998
  • 1. Comparison of demand and supply A. Assumption of estimation of demand and supply we will briefly assumptions used for presumption once more before comparing the result of estimation of demand and supply examined previously 1) supply - The average applying rate for state. examination of graduate: ${\alpha}$=1.03109 - The ratio of successful applicants of state examinations: ${\beta}$=0.97091 - Mortality classified by age : presumed data of the Bureau of statistics - Emigrating rate: 0 % - Time of retire: unconsidered - An army doctor number: unconsidered and regard number of employed oriental medicine doctor. - Standard of 1995 : The number of survival oriental medicine doctor is 8195. the number of employed oriental medicine doctor is 7419. 2) demand - derivated demand method Daily the average amount of medical treatment: according to medical insurance federation data. there is 16 or 6 non allowance patient, we consider amount of medical treatment as 22 persons in practical because 21.94 persons (founded practical examination) are converted to allowance in comming demand. Daily the proper amount of medical treatment: 7 hours form -35 persons 5 hours 30 minutes form -28 persons. Yearly medical treatment days: 229 days. 255 days. 269 days . Increasing rate of visiting hospital days: -1996 year. 1997 year. 1998 year- . Rate of applying insurance: yearly average 71.51% (among the investigated patient) B. Comparison of total sum result 1) supply (provision) Table Ⅳ-1 below shows the estimation of the oriental medicine doctor in the future.

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  • Demand Estimation Methodology for a New Air Route (신규 항공노선에 대한 수요 예측 모델 연구)

    • Choi, Jong Haea;Yoo, Kwang Yui;Lee, Sang Yong
      • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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      • v.33 no.2
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      • pp.145-158
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      • 2015
    • A network connectivity has been regarded as a key element to strengthen a business competitive power in the aviation industry, so many airport authorities try to attract the new airlines and scheme out new air routes. With this trend, a study for an induced travel demand estimation methodology is needed. This study introduces a demand estimation method, especially for a new air route to a promising destination. With the results of previous studies, the derived demand is classified into four types - Local, Beyond, Behind and Bridge. The explanatory variables are established for each type of demand and the main independent variables are composed of distance, ratio of detour, and relative capacity compared with other airports. The equations using such variables and statistically significant coefficients are suggested as the model to make an estimation of derived demand for a new route. Therefore this study will be expected to take an initial step for all related parties to be involved more deeply into developing new air routes to enhance network connectivity.

    Parameter estimation of the Diffusion Model for Demand Side Management Monitoring System (DSM Monitoring을 위한 확산 모델의 계수 추정)

    • Choi, Cheong-Hun;Jeong, Hyun-Su;Kim, Jin-O
      • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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      • 1998.07c
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      • pp.1073-1075
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      • 1998
    • This paper presents the method of parameter estimation of diffusion model for monitoring Demand-Side Management Program. Bass diffusion model was applied in this paper, which has different values according to parameters ; coefficients of innovation, imitation and potential adopters. Though it is very important to estimate three parameter, there are no empirical results in practice. Thus, this paper presents the method of parameter estimation in case of few data with constraints to reduce the possibility of bad estimation. The constraints are empirical results or expert's decision. Case studies show the diffusion curves of high-efficient lighting and also forecasting of the peak value for power demand considering diffusion of high-efficient lighting, the feedback and least-square parameter estimation method used in this paper enable us to evaluate the status and forecasting of the effect of DSM program.

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    Study on a Demand Volume Estimation Method using Population Weighted Centroids in Facility Location Problems (시설물 입지에 있어 인구 중심점 개념을 이용한 수요 규모 추정 방법 연구)

    • Joo, Sung-A;Kim, Young-Hoon
      • Journal of the Korean Association of Geographic Information Studies
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      • v.10 no.2
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      • pp.11-22
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      • 2007
    • This paper is to discuss analytical techniques to estimate demand sizes and volumes that determine optimal locations for multiple facilities for a given services. While demand size estimation is a core part of location modeling to enhance solution quality and practical applicability, the estimation method has been used in limited and restrict parts such as a single population centroid in a given larger census boundary area or small theoretical application experiments(e.s. census track and enumeration district). Therefore, this paper strives to develop an analytical estimation method of demand size that converts area based demand data to point based population weighted centroids. This method is free to spatial boundary units and more robust to estimate accurate demand volumes regardless of geographic boundaries. To improve the estimation accuracy, this paper uses house weighted value to the population centroid calculation process. Then the population weighted centroids are converted to individual demand points on a grid formated surface area. In turn, the population weighted centroids, demand points and network distance measures are operated into location-allocation models to examine their roles to enhance solution quality and applicability of GIS location models. Finally, this paper demonstrates the robustness of the weighted estimation method with the application of location-allocation models.

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    An Estimation of Call Demand for the Internet Telephony (국내 인터넷전화의 통화수요 추정)

    • Chung, Shin-Ryang;Kim, Yong-Kyu
      • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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      • v.8 no.3
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      • pp.639-645
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      • 2007
    • In this study, an estimation of call demand for the internet telephony was carried out using the monthly time-series data from June 2001 to December 2004. In the estimation, the call traffic was assumed to be explained by tariff of the internet telephony service, tariff of fixed and wireless services, income, quality of service, and lagged traffic variable. The traffic is assumed to follow the partial adjustment mechanism. The estimation result shows that the call traffic demand is elastic to the tariff of the service while it is inelastic to the change of income. The qualisty of service is regarded as an important factor of demand. Also there appeared the call demand is adjusting to the change of explanatory variables with some lags.

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    Development of a demand estimation method by using multiclass traffic assignment based on traffic counts (다차종통행배분을 이용한 통행량기반 수요추정기법개발)

    • 김종형;이승재
      • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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      • v.19 no.1
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      • pp.77-88
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      • 2001
    • Until now, though most of the studies related to demand estimation method using traffic counts use methods based on singleclass, travel demands or flows are made by mixing various vehicles in real networks. In general, existing demand estimation methods based on traffic counts estimate O/D by converting a multiclass O/D matrix and traffic counts into a singleclass O/D matrix and traffic counts through PCE conversion, and analyze a O/D matrix by dividing into a multiclass O/D matrix and traffic counts after multiplying an estimated O/D matrix by the fixed ratio of a singleclass O/D matrix and traffic counts before PCE conversion. However, the merits of a demand estimation method based on multiclass calculate each route choice ratio about multiclass O/D, and maximize the estimation capability of multiclass by calculating each gradient, the reduction direction of objective function. Therefore, this study aims to establish a demand estimation method which considers congestion between vehicle and vehicle by using multiclass instead of singleclass.

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