• Title/Summary/Keyword: Delay Change

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Analysis of Causality of the Increase in the Port Congestion due to the COVID-19 Pandemic and BDI(Baltic Dry Index) (COVID-19 팬데믹으로 인한 체선율 증가와 부정기선 운임지수의 인과성 분석)

  • Lee, Choong-Ho;Park, Keun-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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    • v.37 no.4
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    • pp.161-173
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    • 2021
  • The shipping industry plummeted and was depressed due to the global economic crisis caused by the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers in the US in 2008. In 2020, the shipping market also suffered from a collapse in the unstable global economic situation due to the COVID-19 pandemic, but unexpectedly, it changed to an upward trend from the end of 2020, and in 2021, it exceeded the market of the boom period of 2008. According to the Clarksons report published in May 2021, the decrease in cargo volume due to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 has returned to the pre-corona level by the end of 2020, and the tramper bulk carrier capacity of 103~104% of the Panamax has been in the ports due to congestion. Earnings across the bulker segments have risen to ten-year highs in recent months. In this study, as factors affecting BDI, the capacity and congestion ratio of Cape and Panamax ships on the supply side, iron ore and coal seaborne tonnge on the demand side and Granger causality test, IRF(Impulse Response Function) and FEVD(Forecast Error Variance Decomposition) were performed using VAR model to analyze the impact on BDI by congestion caused by strengthen quarantine at the port due to the COVID-19 pandemic and the loading and discharging operation delay due to the infection of the stevedore, etc and to predict the shipping market after the pandemic. As a result of the Granger causality test of variables and BDI using time series data from January 2016 to July 2021, causality was found in the Fleet and Congestion variables, and as a result of the Impulse Response Function, Congestion variable was found to have significant at both upper and lower limit of the confidence interval. As a result of the Forecast Error Variance Decomposition, Congestion variable showed an explanatory power upto 25% for the change in BDI. If the congestion in ports decreases after With Corona, it is expected that there is down-risk in the shipping market. The COVID-19 pandemic occurred not from economic factors but from an ecological factor by the pandemic is different from the past economic crisis. It is necessary to analyze from a different point of view than the past economic crisis. This study has meaningful to analyze the causality and explanatory power of Congestion factor by pandemic.

Development and Application of Instrument for Level Scale of the Systems Thinking Ability about Carbon Cycle (탄소 순환에 대한 시스템 사고 능력 수준 측정을 위한 검사도구 개발 및 적용)

  • Jeon, Jaedon;Lee, Hyundong;Lee, Hyonyong
    • Journal of The Korean Association For Science Education
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    • v.42 no.4
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    • pp.397-415
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    • 2022
  • As the global warming problem becomes serious, the need for carbon cycle education in school is increasing. Adopting systems thinking ability is needed to understand the carbon cycle systematically. Furthermore, under the rapid change of environment, society, and economy, systems thinking ability is being emphasized as it can strengthen the competencies of students who will be leading the future society. The purposes of this study are as follows: first, is developing the systems thinking instrument for the carbon cycle and the rubric for analysis of systems thinking instrument. The second is analyzing the systems thinking ability of students using the developed instrument and rubric. In order to perform this study, previous studies related to the carbon cycle and systems thinking education were analyzed. Based on the analysis results, the systems thinking instrument for the carbon cycle and rubric were developed. The systems thinking ability was analyzed by implementing the developed instrument and rubric to 172 high school and university students. The results of this study are as follows: first, the systems thinking instrument for the carbon cycle was developed, and a rubric utilization guide was constructed. The instrument and rubric were modified through pilot study for middle school students producing expert opinion in relation to systems thinking and carbon cycle. Second, the systems thinking ability of students was analyzed. Consequently, students had systems thinking ability fully at a low level, such as identifying the variables related to the carbon cycle. However, it was shown that they lacked the systems thinking ability at a high level, such as time delay and feedback processes. The importance of the carbon cycle has been increasing since the global warming is the most pressing issue and significant environmental problem facing us today. Application of the systems thinking ability can contribute to understanding these complex problems and finding fundamental solutions.

Unusual Delay of Heading Date in the 2022 Rice Growth and Yield Monitoring Experiment (2022년도 벼 작황시험에서 관찰된 출수기 지연 현상 보고)

  • HyeonSeok, Lee;WoonHa, Hwang;SeoYeong, Yang;Yeongseo, Song;WooJin, Im;HoeJeong, Jeong;ChungGen, Lee;HyeongJoo, Lee;JongTae, Jeong;JongHee, Shin;MyoungGoo, Choi
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.330-336
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    • 2022
  • It is likely that the heading would occur early when air temperature increases. In 2022, however, the heading date was delayed unusually, e.g., by 3 to 5 days although temperature during the vegetative growth stage was higher than normal years. The objective of this study was to identify the cause of such event analyzing weather variables including average temperature, sunshine hours, and day-length for each growth stage. The observation data were collected for medium-late maturing varieties, which has been grown at crop yield experiment sites including Daegu, Andong, and Yesan. The difference in heading date was compared between growing seasons in 2021 and 2022 because crop management options, e.g., the cultivars and cultivation methods, were identical at those sites during the study period. It appeared that the heading date was delayed due to the difference in temperature responsiveness under a given day-length condition The effect of the temperature increase on the heading date differed between the periods during which when the day-length was more than 14.3 hours before and after the summer-solstice.. The effect of the temperature decrease during the period from which the day-length decreased to less than 14.3 hours to the heading date was relatively greater. This merits further studies to examine the response of rice to the temperature change under different day-length and sunshine duration in terms of heading.

Improving the Shelf Life of Pork by using a Coating Agent with Mandarin Peel Powder (귤 과피 분말을 첨가한 피막제 처리에 의한 돈육의 저장성 향상)

  • Hyeonjeong Choi;Yong-Suk Kim
    • Journal of Food Hygiene and Safety
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    • v.38 no.2
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    • pp.55-62
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    • 2023
  • This study aimed to investigate the effect of a coating agent on pork storage. Pork was coated with a coating agent containing sodium carboxymethyl cellulose (CMC) and mandarin peel powder (M). The treatments were divided into control, a 0.1% CMC treatment, and a 0.1% CMC +5% M treatment, and pH, color, 2-thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS), volatile basic nitrogen (VBN), and the number of viable cell counts were measured. In the case of redness (a), it was found that the reduction over the storage period was less in the 0.1% CMC + 5% M treatment than in the control and the 1% CMC treatment. When stored at 4℃ and 25℃, TBARS of pork tended to increase during the storage period, followed by control, 0.1% CMC treatment, and 0.1% CMC + 5% M treatment, indicating that lipid oxidation was most suppressed in pork coated with mandarin peel powder. As a result of measuring the VBN of pork stored at 4℃ and 25℃, the 0.1% CMC + 5% M treatment showed lower values than the control and 0.1% CMC treatment. When the film-coated pork was stored at 4℃, the number of viable cell counts in the 0.1% CMC +5% M treatment area was 7.13±0.96 log CFU/g on the 12th day of storage, delaying the growth of viable cell counts for approximately 3 d more than other treatments. Therefore, coating pork with a film containing CMC and mandarin peel powder has been confirmed to delay the increase in the number of viable cell counts while reducing the quality change during pork storage, which is an effective alternative to improving the storage of fresh food as an edible film.

Impact and significance of Nongak(農樂) education in Agricultural High School since 1950 on the modern Korean Nongak History (1950년대 중반 이후 농림/농업고등학교에서의 농악(農樂) 교육이 한국농악 현대사에 끼친 영향과 의의)

  • Yang, Ok-Kyung
    • (The) Research of the performance art and culture
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    • no.40
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    • pp.111-136
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    • 2020
  • Agricultural high schools are undergoing a change their name from the mid-1950s to the 2000s. Although it varies slightly depending on the case, it has been changed from 'rural forests' to 'agricultural farms' or 'agricultural industries' and 'life sciences high schools' in turn. In several aricultural high schools had managed Nongak Department(class), it's guarantees the continuity of Korea's traditional folk art. Examples include entertainment and farming in Honam region of Jeonju aricultural high School in North Jeolla Province, Geumsan aricultural high School in South Chungcheong Province, Gimcheon aricultural high School in North Gyeongsang Province. Therefore, the interpretation and significance of studies should follow. This method of Nongak education in modern school institutions is a new phenomenon in the history of Nongak after modern time, the emergence of a whole new pattern of professional entertainment Nongak after paving and Female-Nongak, as well as local traditional folk music. Education here was conducted in such a way that the best performers of the time were invited as guidance teachers among traditional folk artists. Thus, various local and professional music and entertainment were able to be promoted Apart from the social relations of delay, social progress, and economy, the education of farming and music, which consists of teachers and students in public schools, has provided an environment where unlimited freedom is allowed for art forms. In other words, the conditions for a new performance style experiment and creative fusion were met, and the foundation for the development of professional musical performers who had acquired individualized talents from previous generations was laid down in the context of the phenomenon of active stage music and theater performance of outstanding in the culture of Nongak. In other words, the Department of Agriculture and aricultural high school was a very free space compared to other communities' and economic community's agricultural music in social relationships bound by traditional cultural customs. This is why they have created a new style of performance through a new experiment and a different traditional performance repertoire, and their activities have led to a more stylistic expansion from traditional farming. More importantly, the figures who came across Agricultural Nongak department became the main experts of traditional Korean folk music nowdays. Thus, Nongak Department, operated by the Agriculture and Forestry High School, was a space where would give a very important meaning in terms of Nongak history.

Deriving Key Risk Sub-Clauses of General Conditions of FIDIC White Book - Based on FIDIC Client/Consultant Model Services Agreement, 5th edition 2017 - (FIDIC White Book 일반조건 핵심 리스크 세부조항 도출 - 피딕 클라이언트/컨설턴트 모델 서비스 계약, 2017년 5판 기준으로 -)

  • Jei, Jaeyong;Hong, Seongyeoll;Seo, Sungchul;Park, Hyungkeun
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.24 no.2
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    • pp.59-69
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    • 2023
  • FIDIC White Book is a Model Services Agreement between the Client and the Consultant. This study aimed to derive the Key Risk Sub-Clauses out of 63 Sub-Clauses of General Conditions of the FIDIC White Book by using the Delphi technique. A panel of 40 experts with more than 10 years of experience and expertise in overseas construction services agreements and FIDIC White Book was formed, and the reliability was improved in the direction of increasing the consensus of experts through a total of three Delphi survey processes. In the first Delphi survey, a closed-type survey was conducted on the impact of risk among 63 Sub-Clauses of General Conditions on a Likert 5-point scale, and 26 main risk Sub-Clauses were derived. The Content Validity of the results of the first Delphi survey was verified with the CVR value. In the 2nd and 3rd Delphi surveys, a closed-type survey was conducted on a Likert 10-point scale for 26 main risk Sub-Clauses and the risk possibility and impact of each main risk Sub-Clause were evaluated. The reliability of the 3rd Delphi survey result was verified with the COV value. Total 14 Key Risk Sub-Clauses were derived by applying the average risk possibility and impact of each of the 26 main risk Sub-Clauses to the PI Risk Matrix. The results of deriving Key Risk Sub-Clauses showed that agreement on specific scope of service, delay management, and change management were the most important. As a result of this study, from a practical point of view, consultants of consulting companies provide guidelines that should be reviewed to minimize contractual risks when signing service contracts with clients. From an academic point of view, the direction of research on deriving key risks related to service contracts for consultants participating in overseas construction is presented.

Study on the Short-Term Hemodynamic Effects of Experimental Cardiomyoplasty in Heart Failure Model (심부전 모델에서 실험적 심근성형술의 단기 혈역학적 효과에 관한 연구)

  • Jeong, Yoon-Seop;Youm, Wook;Lee, Chang-Ha;Kim, Wook-Seong;Lee, Young-Tak;Kim, Won-Gon
    • Journal of Chest Surgery
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    • v.32 no.3
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    • pp.224-236
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    • 1999
  • Background: To evaluate the short-term effect of dynamic cardiomyoplasty on circulatory function and detect the related factors that can affect it, experimental cardiomyoplasties were performed under the state of normal cardiac function and heart failure. Material and Method: A total of 10 mongrel dogs weighing 20 to 30kg were divided arbitrarily into two groups. Five dogs of group A underwent cardiomyoplasty with latissimus dorsi(LD) muscle mobilization followed by a 2-week vascular delay and 6-week muscle training. Then, hemodynamic studies were conducted. In group B, doxorubicin was given to 5 dogs in an IV dose of 1 mg/kg once a week for 8 weeks to induce chronic heart failure, and simultaneous muscle training was given for preconditioning during this period. Then, cardiomyoplasties were performed and hemodynamic studies were conducted immediately after these cardiomyoplasties in group B. Result: In group A, under the state of normal cardiac function, only mean right atrial pressure significantly increased with the pacer-on(p<0.05) and the left ventricular hemodynamic parameters did not change significantly. However, with pacer-on in group B, cardiac output(CO), rate of left ventricular pressure development(dp/dt), stroke volume(SV), and left ventricular stroke work(SW) increased by 16.7${\pm}$7.2%, 9.3${\pm}$3.2%, 16.8${\pm}$8.6%, and 23.1${\pm}$9.7%, respectively, whereas left ventricular end-diastole pressure(LVEDP) and mean pulmonary capillary wedge pressure(mPCWP) decreased by 32.1${\pm}$4.6% and 17.7${\pm}$9.1%, respectively(p<0.05). In group A, imipramine was infused at the rate of 7.5mg/kg/hour for 34${\pm}$2.6 minutes to induce acute heart failure, which resulted in the reduction of cardiac output by 17.5${\pm}$2.7%, systolic left ventricular pressure by 15.8${\pm}$2.5% and the elevation of left ventricular end-diastole pressure by 54.3${\pm}$15.2%(p<0.05). With pacer-on under this state of acute heart failu e, CO, dp/dt, SV, and SW increased by 4.5${\pm}$1.8% and 3.1${\pm}$1.1%, 5.7${\pm}$3.6%, and 6.9${\pm}$4.4%, respectively, whereas LVEDP decreased by 11.7${\pm}$4.7%(p<0.05). Comparing CO, dp/dt, SV, SW and LVEDP that changed significantly with pacer-on, both under the state of acute and chronic heart failure, augmentation widths of these left ventricular hemodynamic parameters were significantly larger under the state of chronic heart failure(group B) than acute heart failure(group A)(p<0.05). On gross inspection, variable degrees of adhesion and inflammation were present in all 5 dogs of group A, including 2 dogs that showed no muscle contraction. No adhesion and inflammation were, however, present in all 5 dogs of group B, which showed vivid muscle contractions. Considering these differences in gross findings along with the following premise that the acute heart failure state was not statistically different from the chronic one in terms of left ventricular parameters(p>0.05), the larger augmentation effect seen in group B is presumed to be mainly attributed to the viability and contractility of the LD muscle. Conclusion: These results indicate that the positive circulatory augmentation effect of cardiomyoplasty is apparent only under the state of heart failure and the preservation of muscle contractility is important to maximize this effect.

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Liability of the Compensation for Damage Caused by the International Passenger's Carrier by Air in Montreal Convention (몬트리올조약에 있어 국제항공여객운송인의 손해배상책임)

  • Kim, Doo-Hwan
    • The Korean Journal of Air & Space Law and Policy
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    • v.18
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    • pp.9-39
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    • 2003
  • The rule of the Warsaw Convention of 1929 are well known and still being all over the world. The Warsaw Convention is undoubtedly the most widely accepted private international air law treaty with some 140 countries. In the international legal system for air transportation, the Warsaw Convention has played a major role for more than half century, and has been revised many times in consideration of the rapid developments of air high technology, changes of social and economic circumstances, need for the protection of passengers. Some amendments became effective, but others are still not effective. As a result, the whole international legal system for air transportation is at past so complicated and tangled. However, the 'Warsaw system' consists of the Warsaw Convention of 1929 the Guadalajara Convention of 1961, a supplementary convention, and the following six protocols: (1) the Hague Protocol of 1955, (2) the Guatemala Protocol of 1971, (3) the Montreal Additional Protocols, No.1, (4) the Montreal Additional Protocol No.2, (5) the Montreal Additional Protocol No.3, and (6) the Montreal Additional Protocol No.4. of 1975. As a fundamental principle of the air carrier's liability in the international convention and protocols, for instance in the Warsaw Convention and the Hague Protocol, the principle of limited liability and a presumed fault system has been adopted. Subsequently, the Montreal Inter-carrier Agreement of 1966, the Guatemala City Protocol, the Montreal Additional Protocol No.3, and the Montreal Additional Protocol No. 4 of 1975 maintained the limited liability, but substituted the presumed liability system by an absolute liability, that is, strict liability system. The Warsaw System, which sets relatively low compensation limits for victims of aircraft accidents and regulates the limited liability for death and injury of air passengers, had become increasingly outdated. Japanese Airlines and Inter-carrier Agreement of International Air Transport Association in 1995 has been adopted the unlimited liability of air carrier in international flight. The IATA Inter-Carrier Agreement, in which airlines in international air transportation agree to waive the limit of damages, was long and hard in coming, but it was remarkable achievement given the political and economic realities of the world. IATA deserves enormous credit for bringing it about. The Warsaw System is controversial and questionable. In order to find rational solution to disputes between nations which adopted differing liability systems in international air transportation, we need to reform the liability of air carriers the 'Warsaw system' and fundamentally, to unify the liability system among the nations. The International Civil Aviation Organization(ICAO) will therefore reinforce its efforts to further promote a legal environment that adequately reflects the public interest and the needs of the parties involved. The ICAO Study Group met in April, 1998, together with the Drafting Committee. The time between the "Special Group on the Modernization and Consolidation of the 'Warsaw system'(SGMW)" and the Diplomatic Conference must be actively utilized to arrange for profound studies of the outstanding issues and for wide international consultations with a view to narrowing the scope of differences and preparing for a global international consensus. From 11 to 28 May 1999 the ICAO Headquarters at Montreal hosted a Diplomatic Conference convened to consider, with a view to adoption, a draft Convention intended to modernize and to integrate replace the instruments of the Warsaw system. The Council of ICAO convened this Conference under the Procedure for the Adoption of International Conventions. Some 525 participants from 121 Contracting States of ICAO attended, one non-contracting State, 11 observer delegations from international organizations, a total of 544 registered participants took part in the historic three-week conference which began on 10 May. The Conference was a success since it adopted a new Convention for the Unification of Certain Rules for International Carriage by Air. The 1999 Montreal Convention, created and signed by representatives of 52 countries at an international conference convened by ICAO at Montreal on May 28, 1999, came into effect on November 4, 2003. Representatives of 30 countries have now formally ratified the Convention under their respective national procedures and ratification of the United States, which was the 30th country to ratify, took place on September 5, 2003. Under Article 53.6 of the Montreal Convention, it enters into force on the 60th day following the deposit of the 30th instrument of ratification or acceptation. The United States' ratification was deposited with ICAO on September 5, 2003. The ICAO have succeeded in modernizing and consolidating a 70-year old system of international instruments of private international law into one legal instrument that will provide, for years to come, an adequate level of compensation for those involved in international aircraft accidents. An international diplomatic conference on air law by ICAO of 1999 succeeded in adopting a new regime for air carrier liability, replacing the Warsaw Convention and five other related legal instruments with a single convention that provided for unlimited liability in relation to passengers. Victims of international air accidents and their families will be better protected and compensated under the new Montreal Convention, which modernizes and consolidates a seventy-five year old system of international instruments of private international law into one legal instrument. A major feature of the new legal instrument is the concept of unlimited liability. Whereas the Warsaw Convention set a limit of 125,000 Gold Francs (approximately US$ 8,300) in case of death or injury to passengers, the Montreal Convention introduces a two-tier system. The first tier includes strict liability up to l00,000 Special Drawing Rights (SDR: approximately US$ 135,000), irrespective of a carrier's fault. The second tier is based on presumption of fault of a carrier and has no limit of liability. The 1999 Montreal Convention also includes the following main elements; 1. In cases of aircraft accidents, air carriers are called upon to provide advance payments, without delay, to assist entitled persons in meeting immediate economic needs; the amount of this initial payment will be subject to national law and will be deductable from the final settlement; 2. Air carriers must submit proof of insurance, thereby ensuring the availability of financial resources in cases of automatic payments or litigation; 3. The legal action for damages resulting from the death or injury of a passenger may be filed in the country where, at the time of the accident, the passenger had his or her principal and permanent residence, subject to certain conditions. The new Montreal Convention of 1999 included the 5th jurisdiction - the place of residence of the claimant. The acceptance of the 5th jurisdiction is a diplomatic victory for the US and it can be realistically expected that claimants' lawyers will use every opportunity to file the claim in the US jurisdiction - it brings advantages in the liberal system of discovery, much wider scope of compensable non-economic damages than anywhere else in the world and the jury system prone to very generous awards. 4. The facilitation in the recovery of damages without the need for lengthy litigation, and simplification and modernization of documentation related to passengers. In developing this new Montreal Convention, we were able to reach a delicate balance between the needs and interests of all partners in international civil aviation, States, the travelling public, air carriers and the transport industry. Unlike the Warsaw Convention, the threshold of l00,000 SDR specified by the Montreal Convention, as well as remaining liability limits in relation to air passengers and delay, are subject to periodic review and may be revised once every five years. The primary aim of unification of private law as well as the new Montreal Convention is not only to remove or to minimize the conflict of laws but also to avoid conflict of jurisdictions. In order to find a rational solution to disputes between nations which have adopted differing liability systems in international air transport, we need fundamentally to reform their countries's domestic air law based on the new Montreal Convention. It is a desirable and necessary for us to ratify rapidly the new Montreal Convention by the contracting states of lCAO including the Republic of Korea. According to the Korean and Japanese ideas, airlines should not only pay compensation to passengers immediately after the accident, but also the so-called 'condolence' money to the next of kin. Condolence money is a gift to help a dead person's spirit in the hereafter : it is given on account of the grief and sorrow suffered by the next of kin, and it has risen considerably over the years. The total amount of the Korean and Japanese claims in the case of death is calculated on the basis of the loss of earned income, funeral expenses and material demage (baggage etc.), plus condolence money. The economic and social change will be occurred continuously after conclusion of the new Montreal Convention. In addition, the real value of life and human right will be enhanced substantially. The amount of compensation for damage caused by aircraft accident has increased in dollar amount as well as in volume. All air carrier's liability should extend to loss of expectation of leisure activities, as well as to damage to property, and mental and physical injuries. When victims are not satisfied with the amount of the compensation for damage caused by aircraft accident for which an airline corporation is liable under the current liability system. I also would like to propose my opinion that it is reasonable and necessary for us to interpret broadly the meaning of the bodily injury on Article 17 of the new Montreal Convention so as to be included the mental injury and condolence. Furthermore, Korea and Japan has not existed the Air Transport Act regulated the civil liability of air carrier such as Air Transport Act (Luftverkehrsgestz) in Germany. It is necessary for us to enact "the Korean Air Transport Contract Act (provisional title)" in order to regulate the civil liability of air carrier including the protection of the victims and injured persons caused by aircraft accident.

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