• Title/Summary/Keyword: Decision Methods

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Evaluation criterion for different methods of multiple-attribute group decision making with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy information

  • Qiu, Junda;Li, Lei
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제12권7호
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    • pp.3128-3149
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    • 2018
  • A number of effective methods for multiple-attribute group decision making (MAGDM) with interval-valued intuitionistic fuzzy numbers (IVIFNs) have been proposed in recent years. However, the different methods frequently yield different, even sometimes contradictory, results for the same problem. In this paper a novel criterion to determine the advantages and disadvantages of different methods is proposed. First, the decision-making process is divided into three parts: translation of experts' preferences, aggregation of experts' opinions, and comparison of the alternatives. Experts' preferences aggregation is considered the core step, and the quality of the collective matrix is considered the most important evaluation index for the aggregation methods. Then, methods to calculate the similarity measure, correlation, correlation coefficient, and energy of the intuitionistic fuzzy matrices are proposed, which are employed to evaluate the collective matrix. Thus, the optimal method can be selected by comparing the collective matrices when all the methods yield different results. Finally, a novel approach for aggregating experts' preferences with IVIFN is presented. In this approach, experts' preferences are mapped as points into two-dimensional planes, with the plant growth simulation algorithm (PGSA) being employed to calculate the optimal rally points, which are inversely mapped to IVIFNs to establish the collective matrix. In the study, four different methods are used to address one example problem to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the proposed approach.

투자와 수출 및 환율의 고용에 대한 의사결정 나무, 랜덤 포레스트와 그래디언트 부스팅 머신러닝 모형 예측 (Investment, Export, and Exchange Rate on Prediction of Employment with Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting Machine Learning Models)

  • 이재득
    • 무역학회지
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    • 제46권2호
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    • pp.281-299
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    • 2021
  • This paper analyzes the feasibility of using machine learning methods to forecast the employment. The machine learning methods, such as decision tree, artificial neural network, and ensemble models such as random forest and gradient boosting regression tree were used to forecast the employment in Busan regional economy. The following were the main findings of the comparison of their predictive abilities. First, the forecasting power of machine learning methods can predict the employment well. Second, the forecasting values for the employment by decision tree models appeared somewhat differently according to the depth of decision trees. Third, the predictive power of artificial neural network model, however, does not show the high predictive power. Fourth, the ensemble models such as random forest and gradient boosting regression tree model show the higher predictive power. Thus, since the machine learning method can accurately predict the employment, we need to improve the accuracy of forecasting employment with the use of machine learning methods.

Extraction of Hierarchical Decision Rules from Clinical Databases using Rough Sets

  • Tsumoto, Shusaku
    • 한국지능정보시스템학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국지능정보시스템학회 2001년도 The Pacific Aisan Confrence On Intelligent Systems 2001
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    • pp.336-342
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    • 2001
  • One of the most important problems on rule induction methods is that they cannot extract rules, which plausibly represent experts decision processes. On one hand, rule induction methods induce probabilistic rules, the description length of which is too short, compared with the experts rules. On the other hand, construction of Bayesian networks generates too lengthy rules. In this paper, the characteristics of experts rules are closely examined and a new approach to extract plausible rules is introduced, which consists of the following three procedures. First, the characterization of decision attributes (given classes) is extracted from databases and the classes are classified into several groups with respect to the characterization. Then, two kinds of sub-rules, characterization rules for each group and discrimination rules for each class in the group are induced. Finally, those two parts are integrated into one rule for each decision attribute. The proposed method was evaluated on a medical database, the experimental results of which show that induced rules correctly represent experts decision processes.

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엔트로피 방법에 의한 다 요소 의사결정에 관한 연구 (On the Multi-attribute Decision Making by Entropy Methods)

  • 정순석
    • 대한안전경영과학회지
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    • 제6권2호
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    • pp.177-186
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    • 2004
  • Decision analysis has becomes an important technique for decision making in the face of uncertainty. It is characterized by enumerating all the available courses of action, identifying the payoffs for all possible outcomes, and quantifying the subjective probabilities for the all possible random events. When the data are available, decision analysis becomes a powerful tool for determining an optimal course of action. We study the multi-attribute decision making in a compensatory models. In this paper, we use the entropy methods in weights calculating. For the purpose of making optimal decision, the data of five different car models are used. For computing, we used Visual Numerica Version 1.0 software package.

A Comparative Study of Medical Data Classification Methods Based on Decision Tree and System Reconstruction Analysis

  • Tang, Tzung-I;Zheng, Gang;Huang, Yalou;Shu, Guangfu;Wang, Pengtao
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • 제4권1호
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    • pp.102-108
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    • 2005
  • This paper studies medical data classification methods, comparing decision tree and system reconstruction analysis as applied to heart disease medical data mining. The data we study is collected from patients with coronary heart disease. It has 1,723 records of 71 attributes each. We use the system-reconstruction method to weight it. We use decision tree algorithms, such as induction of decision trees (ID3), classification and regression tree (C4.5), classification and regression tree (CART), Chi-square automatic interaction detector (CHAID), and exhausted CHAID. We use the results to compare the correction rate, leaf number, and tree depth of different decision-tree algorithms. According to the experiments, we know that weighted data can improve the correction rate of coronary heart disease data but has little effect on the tree depth and leaf number.

Decision Support System Regarding the Possibility of Using the Reproductive Technologies Taking into Account Civil Law

  • Hnatchuk, Yelyzaveta;Hovorushchenko, Tetiana;Medzatyi, Dmytro
    • International Journal of Computer Science & Network Security
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    • 제22권7호
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    • pp.413-420
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    • 2022
  • The review of known methods and decision support systems regarding the possibility of using the reproductive technologies showed that currently there are no methods and decision support systems regarding the possibility of using reproductive technologies taking into account civil law. Although the analyzed methods and systems have great potential for use in different contexts, these methods and systems do not take into account the civil law requirements of any country. The paper has developed a decision support system regarding the possibility of using the reproductive technologies taking into account civil law, which automatically and free of charge determines the possibility/impossibility of surrogate motherhood or in vitro fertilization. If it is determined that surrogate motherhood or in vitro fertilization is impossible, the sufficiency of the information in the analyzed contract is evaluated, and the reasons for the impossibility of surrogate motherhood or in vitro fertilization are presented to the user.

효율적인 교통관리를 위한 혼잡상황변화 유형 분류기법 개발 (Classification Method of Congestion Change Type for Efficient Traffic Management)

  • 심상우;이환필;이규진;최기주
    • 한국도로학회논문집
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.127-134
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    • 2014
  • PURPOSES : To operate more efficient traffic management system, it is utmost important to detect the change in congestion level on a freeway segment rapidly and reliably. This study aims to develop classification method of congestion change type. METHODS: This research proposes two classification methods to capture the change of the congestion level on freeway segments using the dedicated short range communication (DSRC) data and the vehicle detection system (VDS) data. For developing the classification methods, the decision tree models were employed in which the independent variable is the change in congestion level and the covariates are the DSRC and VDS data collected from the freeway segments in Korea. RESULTS : The comparison results show that the decision tree model with DSRC data are better than the decision tree model with VDS data. Specifically, the decision tree model using DSRC data with better fits show approximately 95% accuracies. CONCLUSIONS : It is expected that the congestion change type classified using the decision tree models could play an important role in future freeway traffic management strategy.

시스템 다이내믹스를 기반으로 한 그룹 의사결정 지원 방안에 관한 연구 (System Dynamics based Group Decision-Making Support)

  • 곽기영;김희웅
    • 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.49-58
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    • 2003
  • There have been growing recognition on the needs of coordination of diverse activities across cross-functional business areas necessarily involving group decision-making processes. Although many group decision-making support tools and methods have been introduced to enable the collaborative processes of group decision-making, they often lack features supporting the dynamic complexity issues. This study proposes system dynamics modeling approach based on simulation techniques to deal with the group decision-making tasks having properties of dynamic complexity.

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R&D 프로젝트 투자 의사결정을 위한 실물옵션 의사결정나무 모델 (Real Option Decision Tree Models for R&D Project Investment)

  • 최경현;조대명;정영기
    • 산업공학
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    • 제24권4호
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    • pp.408-419
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    • 2011
  • R&D is a foundation for new business chance and productivity improvement leading to enormous expense and a long-term multi-step process. During the R&D process, decision-makers are confused due to the various future uncertainties that influence economic and technical success of the R&D projects. For these reasons, several decision-making models for R&D project investment have been suggested; they are based on traditional methods such as Discounted Cash Flow (DCF), Decision Tree Analysis (DTA) and Real Option Analysis (ROA) or some fusion forms of the traditional methods. However, almost of the models have constraints in practical use owing to limits on application, procedural complexity and incomplete reflection of the uncertainties. In this study, to make the constraints minimized, we propose a new model named Real Option Decision Tree Model which is a conceptual combination form of ROA and DTA. With this model, it is possible for the decision-makers to simulate the project value applying the uncertainties onto the decision making nodes.