Korea Trade Review (무역학회지)

Korea Trade Research Association (한국무역학회)
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Investment, Export, and Exchange Rate on Prediction of Employment with Decision Tree, Random Forest, and Gradient Boosting Machine Learning Models

투자와 수출 및 환율의 고용에 대한 의사결정 나무, 랜덤 포레스트와 그래디언트 부스팅 머신러닝 모형 예측

  • Chae-Deug Yi (Department of International Trade, Pusan National University)
  • Received : 2021.04.10
  • Accepted : 2021.04.28
  • Published : 2021.04.30
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Abstract

This paper analyzes the feasibility of using machine learning methods to forecast the employment. The machine learning methods, such as decision tree, artificial neural network, and ensemble models such as random forest and gradient boosting regression tree were used to forecast the employment in Busan regional economy. The following were the main findings of the comparison of their predictive abilities. First, the forecasting power of machine learning methods can predict the employment well. Second, the forecasting values for the employment by decision tree models appeared somewhat differently according to the depth of decision trees. Third, the predictive power of artificial neural network model, however, does not show the high predictive power. Fourth, the ensemble models such as random forest and gradient boosting regression tree model show the higher predictive power. Thus, since the machine learning method can accurately predict the employment, we need to improve the accuracy of forecasting employment with the use of machine learning methods.

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