• 한국농공학회논문집
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• 제56권2호
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• pp.11-23
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• 2014

The impact and adaption on agricultural water resources considering climate change is significant for reservoirs. The change in rainfall patterns and hydrologic factors due to climate change increases the uncertainty of agricultural water supply and demand. The quantitative evaluation method of uncertainty based on agricultural water resource management under future climate conditions is a major concern. Therefore, it is necessary to improve the vulnerability management technique for agricultural water supply based on a probabilistic and stochastic risk evaluation theory. The objective of this study was to analyse the uncertainty of water resources under future climate change using probability distribution function of water supply in agricultural reservoir and demand in irrigation district. The uncertainty of future water resources in agricultural reservoirs was estimated using the time-specific analysis of histograms and probability distributions parameter, for example the location and the scale parameter. According to the uncertainty analysis, the future agricultural water supply and demand in reservoir tends to increase the uncertainty by the low consistency of the results. Thus, it is recommended to prepare a resonable decision making on water supply strategies in terms of using climate change scenarios that reflect different future development conditions.

• Asia Marketing Journal
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• 제10권1호
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• pp.133-160
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• 2008

본 연구는 소비자들이 다양한 이유로 인해 인터넷 구매결정을 연기하는 쇼핑행동을 경험적 관점에서 바라보고 이를 통해 감정적 요인들이 쇼핑몰 만족도에 미치는 영향력을 살펴보고자 하였다. 본 연구모델의 실증분석을 위해 설문조사를 실시한 결과, 성과적 위험지각, 재정적 위험지각, 사회적 위험지각에 의한 구매결정 연기는 부정적 감정을 경험하게 하며, 특히 성과적 위험지각의 경우 긍정적 감정에 부적 영향을 미치는 것으로 나타났다. 하지만 사회적 위험지각과 절차 불확실성에 의한 구매결정 연기는 쇼핑 중 긍정적 감정에 영향을 미치고, 필요 불확실성에 의한 구매결정 연기는 부정적 감정을 감소시켜 쾌락적 쇼핑성향과 관련된 구매결정 연기는 긍정적 감정을 경험하게 하는 것으로 나타났다. 또한 인터넷 쇼핑감정에서 경험된 긍정적 감정은 쇼핑몰 만족도에 정적 영향을 미치고 부정적 감정은 부적 영향을 미침을 알 수 있었다.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제4권4호
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• pp.201-211
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• 2003

불확정 요소가 많은 건설 프로젝트에서 코스트 리스크의 분석은 관련 전문가의 통찰력이나 주관적 판단에 의존하는 경우가 많다. 하지만 국내 건설산업의 경우 코스트 리스크 분석시 객관적인 산출근거에 의한 확률만을 고려 할 뿐 계량적 측정이 어려운 주관적 요소를 합리 적으로 반영하기 위한 방법이나 절차를 갖고 있지 못하다. 이와 같은 관점에서 본 연구는 보다 신뢰성이 우수한 비용견적을 위해서 전문가의 주관적인 요소까지 종합적으로 평가하고, 리스크로 인한 비용의 변동을 정량적으로 분석할 수 있는 새로운 로스트 리스크 분석모델을 제시하였다 아울러 실무에서도 간단한 절차에 따라 모델을 체계적으로 수행할 수 있도록 편리한 사용자 인터페이스를 제공해 주는 프로토타입을 구현하였다.

• 한국정보시스템학회지:정보시스템연구
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.233-254
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• 2011

Although e-commerce is growing fast, e-commerce consumers are still under higher risk and uncertainty in the comparison of the traditional commerce's. Consumer review boards of online shopping malls are good measures to help buyer's decision making, and should be managed effectively by sellers. We formulate the research model on consumer trust formation on seller managed web review boards on the background of previous literatures on e-WOM and trust. Our data analysis with 368 samples shows seller's reputation, e-service quality, perceived reviewer's benevolence and ability have significant positive effect on the trustworthiness of the board. Product involvement shows weak negative moderation effect on the relationship between perceived reviewer's benevolence and trustworthiness of review boards.

• 한국ITS학회 논문지
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• 제22권1호
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• pp.192-207
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• 2023

Lv.4 자율주행의 상용화를 위하여 안전한 도로환경과 자율주행차량이 안전하게 운행할 수 있는 구체적인 정의가 필요되고, 미래 교통안전 문제에 대비하기 위해 자율주행차량의 안전한 운행 여부를 판단할 수 있는 위험도 평가모델이 요구된다. 자율주행차량의 운행 위험요소를 선정 및 등급화를 수행하였으나, 자율주행차량의 사고 발생 원인과 운행 자료 구득에 어려움이 있어 자율주행 분야 전문가 설문조사를 활용하여 정성적 자료로 의사결정방법을 적용하였다. 의사결정자의 애매모호한 언어적 표현, 불확실함을 정량적 수치로 변환하는 퍼지-계층화 분석법을 통해 다기준 의사결정에 있어 기존의 계층화 분석법(AHP)의 단점을 보완할 수 있었다. 상위·하위속성들의 가중치 도출 과정을 거쳐, 물리적 인프라인 도로선형이 자율주행차량의 운행 위험도에 가장 중요한 위험요소로 분석되었다. 또한, 자율주행차량의 운행 위험도 범례를 통하여 평가 대상지 5곳에 대한 자율주행차량 운행 위험 여부를 도출하였다.

• Asia pacific journal of information systems
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.1-23
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• 2010

Some researches insist that, to participate in an e-partnership, a distributor needs a given level of trust to reduce the perceived risk of an e-partnership to his/her own threshold. However, other researches insist that if a distributor has only a given level of trust in his/her suppliers, irrelevant of the perceived risk level, he/she participates in the e-partnership. Thus, from the perspective of a distributor, this study built a trust model in which these two viewpoints were reflected. And then this study examined whether or not perceived risk mediates an influence of trust to e-partnership. The proposed trust model was tested with 265 questionnaires about a distributor-supplier e-partnership in food wholesale markets. The analysis results Indicated that perceived risk partially had a mediating effect between trust and e-partnership Intention. That is, of the two risk types, only perceived performance risk mediated an influence from competence trust to e-partnership intention. Relational risk did not play a mediating role between goodwill trust and e-partnership intention. This result Implies two managerial meanings. First, a distributor Intends to engage In e-partnership with his/her supplier, irrelevant of relational risk's level if goodwill trust level surpasses his/her own threshold. Thus, suppliers should concentrate more effort in developing goodwill trust than in reducing relational risk. To develop goodwill trust, they should endeavor to establish mutual interests and individual trust with their distributor, and to utilize institutional trust bases. Second, a distributor requires a certain competence In his/her suppliers to sufficiently reduce performance risk caused bye-partnership. Thus, to develop competence trust in e-partnership, suppliers should improve on any lack of competence and build a good reputation.

• 아태비즈니스연구
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.231-246
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• 2023

Purpose - This study attempts to provide a new theoretical perspective on the quality signaling and its impact on a market under information asymmetry, focusing on how the accuracy and the cost of quality signaling affect sellers' and buyers' profit, suggesting appropriate designs of quality signaling methods which mitigates information asymmetry. Design/methodology/approach - In order to examine the effect of quality signaling on strategic interactions within the market, we establish an analytic model where market outcomes are determined by seller's quality claim and price, and buyers are risk-neutral. By investigating this analytic model through relevant game trees, we find the subgame perfect Nash equilibria of the market and predict related market outcomes based on sellers' quality signaling strategy. Findings - Our analytic model shows counterintuitive results that seller profit will be the lowest with inaccurate quality signaling and the highest with no quality signaling, mostly due to the certification cost. Consequently, sellers should proceed with caution if the quality signaling is less than accurate, as it may backfire. We believe that this is due to the fact that the inaccuracy of quality signaling causes some confusion and uncertainty in both sellers and buyers' decision to maximize profit, making it hard for sellers to predict buyers' behavior. Research implications or Originality - Although the sources and types of quality signaling errors have been investigated in the literature, there has not been satisfactory understanding regarding how inaccuracy of quality certification affects specific market outcomes. We expect that our theoretical model would provide important implications on how to utilize quality signaling to solve adverse selection issues in markets under information asymmetry.

• 기술혁신연구
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• 제5권1호
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• pp.206-222
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• 1997

The conventional analysis with which justifies government intervention of the private sector's innovation activities is the market failure approach. According to such analysis, fund allocation through autonomous market mechanisms is not optimal in technology financing because of the disparity between the desirable level of investment for society as a whole and that for private firms. To optimize the fund allocation, public policies such as subsidy, preferencial loan and venture capital investment programs are designed for technology development projects performed by private firms. They, however, have not been effective in increasing private investment for such projects. In most cases, it was found that little considerations given to the relationship between uncertainty embodied in technology development projects and each types of financing. With respect to optimizing fund allocation, technology development projects should be financed by different means according to their probability of success and the expected value of technology. Employing various theoretical models on financing decision-making we verify here that technology development projects to be supported by commercial banks or venture capital institutions is limited contingent upon levels of uncertainty adn expected value. Under the assumption that financial institutions are risk averse, loan or investment can be available only if the probability of success of the project is higher than the probability premium and the current market rate of interest. Therefore, the projects that have lower probability of success and/or small expected return are excluded from commercial loan or investment programs. However, the remaining projects, whose probability of success is low but with high expected return, may be applied under government subsidy programs. To achieve optimality of fund allocation and to activate technology financing, we conclude that there should be a systematic division of role among financial institutions including government commercial banks, and venture capital institutions.

• 수산경영론집
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• 제33권2호
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• pp.1-29
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• 2002

The main objective of this research aims at analyzing efficiency of government financial transfers(GFTs) to the Korean fisheries sector, using the Linear Structural Relations model(i.e., LISERL model) and the field survey data. Most policies of GFTs tend to be implemented to protect industries with weak competitive advantages such as infant and/or primary industries. Specific policy instruments include income transfers, government loans with lower interest rates, taxes and the like. Fishing activities are made at a highly changeable natural environment of the ocean with a great amount of risk and uncertainty. Fishing households make their livelihood under the small-scale fisheries. Such fisheries and fishing households have also a relatively weak market power. Because of these fisheries characteristics most coastal states have adopted a variety of government support programs. However, despite such a huge government support, during the past several decades the world fishing communities have seen a tendency of continuous fishereis resource overexploitation. For this resason there have been hot debates over the government support policies for fisheries through OECD, FAO, WTO, and UNEP. In general, policy evaluations tend to be made on the basis of benefit-cost(B/C) analysis. However, the B/C analysis may produce results quite different from real ones primarily due to many unmeasurable effects. Thus, the authors composed simple questionaires and let fishermen, government officials and academic people answer the questions. The survery was made in several ways such as post-mail and personal/group interviews. In recent years, for analysis of policy performances and effectiveness, the LISREL model has often been used, which consists of structural and measurement eqquations. This model has a good advantage of transforming unobservable variables to observable ones so that it helps construct endogenous cause and effect relationships among relevant variables. The evaluation was done from the two aspects: policy results and policy effectiveness. The policy result evaluation showed that there is a need for improvement for policy problem perception and decision-making process, while the policy effect evaluation suggested that the policy goals were successfully achieved and social justice was improved from the perspective of the entire society as well. However, the research results showed that the GFT policies rendered little contrubtion to narrowing down the gap between GFT beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries incomes.

• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제29권2호
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• pp.219-246
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• 2020

배출권거래제 2차 계획기간(2018~2020년)부터 '국내기업 등이 외국에서 직접 시행한 CDM 사업'의 감축실적을 할당대상업체가 사용할 수 있게 되었다. 이에 시장의 이해관계자들은 한계비용이 낮으면서 많은 양의 배출권을 확보할 수 있는 '고효율 쿡스토브 보급사업'과 같은 해외 CDM 사업을 적극 추진하고 있다. 본 논문은 실물옵션 방법론을 활용하여 '고효율 쿡스토브 보급사업' 대한 외부사업자의 투자의사결정 모형을 개발하였다. 그리고 배출권 가격 불확실성하에서 '고효율 쿡스토브 보급사업'의 최적투자분기점(p^⁎) 도출 및 민감도 분석을 시행하였다. 그 결과 기준시나리오(PoA-S)에서의 최적투자분기점은 29,054원/톤으로 현재 배출권 현물 가격(p^⁎_spot)보다 낮아 고효율 쿡스토브 보급사업은 경제성이 있는 것으로 나타났다. 그러나 할당대상업체는 CDM 사업 추진 시 경제성뿐 아니라, 본 논문에서 분석한 투자유치국의 비재생 바이오매스 비율, 쿡스토브 교체 비율, 지분율, 사업기간 및 해외 외부사업 배출권의 사용 한도와 같은 위험요소도 고려하여 의사결정을 해야 한다. 그리고 외부사업자는 외부사업자의 고유 파라미터로 사업단계별 최적투자분기점을 도출하여 경제성 점검에 활용할 수 있을 것이다.