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http://dx.doi.org/10.15266/KEREA.2020.29.2.219

Real Option Study on Cookstove Offset Project under Emission Allowance Price Uncertainty  

Lee, Jaehyung (SK Telecom)
Publication Information
Environmental and Resource Economics Review / v.29, no.2, 2020 , pp. 219-246 More about this Journal
Abstract
From the Phase II (2018~2020) of K-ETS, the offset credit from 'CDM projects that domestic companies and others have carried out in foreign countries' can be used in the K-ETS. As a result, stakeholders in the K-ETS market are actively developing overseas CDM projects, such as the 'high-efficiency cook stove project'. which can secure a large amount of credits while marginal cost is relatively low. This paper develops the investment decision-making model of offset project for the 'high-efficiency cook stove project' using the real option approach. Under the uncertainty of the emission allowance price, the optimal investment threshold (p⁎) is derived and sensitivity analysis is conducted. As a result, in the standard scenario (PoA-S), the optimal investment threshold is 29,054won/ton, which is lower than the stock price (p⁎spot). However, allocation entities are not only economics in the CDM project, but also CDM risk factors such as non-renewable biomass ratio, cook stove replacement ratio, equity ratio with host country, investment period and submission limitation of emission allowance. In addition, offset project developers will be able to derive the optimal investment threshold for each business stage and use it for economic feasibility checks.
Keywords
Emission trading scheme; Emission allowance price; Offset; Cook stove; Real option;
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