• 제목/요약/키워드: Decision Cost

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자료포락분석을 이용한 서울시 간선버스노선 효율성 평가 (A DEA(Data Envelopment Analysis) Approach for Evaluating the Efficiency of Exclusive Bus Routes)

  • 한진석;김혜란;고승영
    • 대한교통학회지
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    • 제27권6호
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    • pp.45-53
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    • 2009
  • 서울시의 버스체계개편 시행 후 약 4년이 지난 현재 대중교통 이용승객의 증가에도 불구하고 서울시의 재정부담은 크게 개선되지 못하였다. 이에 서울시는 버스의 경쟁력을 강화하고 효율성을 제고하기 위한 정책들을 수립할 계획이며, 이러한 정책의 효과를 객관적으로 평가하기 위해서는 버스수단 경쟁력의 기반이 되는 노선의 효율성 추정과 이에 영향을 미치는 요인들의 분석이 요구된다. 본 연구에서는 2008년 서울시 간선버스 노선의 자료와 DEA 모형의 하나인 BCC 모형을 이용하여 각 노선의 효율성을 추정하였다. 효율성 추정시 각 노선은 차량대수, 노선거리, 정류장개수, 배차간격, 운영비를 투입하여 승객수와 수익금을 산출하는 것으로 가정하였다. 투입지향 BCC 모형으로 분석한 결과, 평가노선 18개 중 규모수익불변(CRS)인 노선은 총 2개이며, 나머지 16개 노선은 규모수익체증(IRS)인 노선으로 분석되었다. 또한 분석에 사용된 요소들이 효율성 점수에 미치는 영향을 파악하기 위하여 토빗회귀분석을 수행한 결과, 현재 간선버스에 가장 큰 영향을 미치는 변수는 배차간격인 것으로 분석되었다.

수산동물 지정검역물에 대한 표본검사 계획 검토 (Evaluation of Sample Testing Scheme for Designated Aquatic Animals)

  • 박선일
    • 한국임상수의학회지
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    • 제29권1호
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    • pp.58-62
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    • 2012
  • To protect aquatic animal health of importing countries from the potential risks associated with exotic diseases introduced through international trade of live aquatic animals, inspection of designated commodities at ports of entry is a critical component of the safeguarding system. The only way to be 100% confident that no fishes in a shipment are infected with a specific agent is to test every fish in the commodity imported with a perfect diagnostic test. For the majority of cases, this is unrealistic since the group of interest may very large particularly for aquatic animals, or imperfect tests are often available. It is, therefore, more common to test a fixed proportion of a group by preplanned sampling schemes. However, decision making based on results of testing the sample can provide quite a chance that infected groups may be misclassified as uninfected, depending on sampling strategy employed. The objective of this study was to determine the possibility that one or more fishes in the group imported being infected but tests negative after inspecting samples. This question is critical to government authorities to examine whether sampling plan is sufficient to achieve the purpose intended for. At fixed population size, the maximum number of infected fishes when all tests negative was decreased as the sampling fraction increased. The probability of including at least one undetected but infected fish in a group for negative tests increased with the number of fish tested or true prevalence. The risk was much lesser where high sensitivity test was assumed; when increasing test sensitivity from 0.9 to 0.99, this risk was dramatically reduced to about a tenth or a fourth for prevalence ranges from 2 to 10%, given sample size ranges from 10 to 200. Based on the preliminary analysis, the author concluded that current sampling plan testing 4-8% of the import proposal for human consumption still can yield high false negative results. Therefore, from the quarantine inspection point of view, an enforced commodity-specific sampling design that accounts for the cost of testing with an imperfect test at the specified design prevalence is urgent.

통합환경관리제도 운영을 위한 최적가용기법 평가·선정기법 연구 (Evaluation and Selection Method of Best Available Techniques for Integrated Environmental Management System)

  • 박재홍
    • 한국물환경학회지
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    • 제33권3호
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    • pp.348-358
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    • 2017
  • The process of evaluating and selecting the best available techniques presents various characteristics for each country. In the case of EU, BAT is selected through TWG meeting after first screening, mass and energy balance, impact assessment and decision support process. Korea has proposed four principles to select BAT that can be carbon neutral for each environmental infrastructure in order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions. In order to evaluate and select the best available technique, it is necessary to differentiate the method according to whether it is a technique generally applied at the current workplace, whether it is a single technique or a combination technique, and whether it is a technology technique or management technique. In the case of a single technique, it should be evaluated whether it is a technique applied in the workplace, excessive cost, superior environmental technique over BAT, and secondary environmental pollution. In the case of multiple techniques, it is necessary to examine whether the emission standards are met and whether the pollutants can be treated at the same level as BAT. In the case of BAT candidates for management techniques, whether or not they contribute directly or indirectly to lowering the emission level of pollutants can be an important evaluation item. In the case of environmental techniques that are not generally applied in the workplace, it is recommended that the following 8 steps be carried out, including those prescribed by law. In the first stage, the list of performance evaluation factors is listed. In the second stage, the level of disposal of pollutants and the level of satisfaction with standards are listed. In the third stage, the environmental evaluation elements are listed. In the fourth stage, Is to list the economic evaluation elements, step 6 is to list the pollution and accident prevention evaluation factors, step 7 is the quantitative evaluation of the technical working group, and step 8 is BAT confirmation through deliberation of the central environmental policy committee.

A Hybrid Multiuser Detection Algorithm for Outer Space DS-UWB Ad-hoc Network with Strong Narrowband Interference

  • Yin, Zhendong;Kuang, Yunsheng;Sun, Hongjian;Wu, Zhilu;Tang, Wenyan
    • KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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    • 제6권5호
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    • pp.1316-1332
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    • 2012
  • Formation flying is an important technology that enables high cost-effective organization of outer space aircrafts. The ad-hoc wireless network based on direct-sequence ultra-wideband (DS-UWB) techniques is seen as an effective means of establishing wireless communication links between aircrafts. In this paper, based on the theory of matched filter and error bits correction, a hybrid detection algorithm is proposed for realizing multiuser detection (MUD) when the DS-UWB technique is used in the ad-hoc wireless network. The matched filter is used to generate a candidate code set which may contain several error bits. The error bits are then recognized and corrected by an novel error-bit corrector, which consists of two steps: code mapping and clustering. In the former step, based on the modified optimum MUD decision function, a novel mapping function is presented that maps the output candidate codes into a feature space for differentiating the right and wrong codes. In the latter step, the codes are clustered into the right and wrong sets by using the K-means clustering approach. Additionally, in order to prevent some right codes being wrongly classified, a sign judgment method is proposed that reduces the bit error rate (BER) of the system. Compared with the traditional detection approaches, e.g., matched filter, minimum mean square error (MMSE) and decorrelation receiver (DEC), the proposed algorithm can considerably improve the BER performance of the system because of its high probability of recognizing wrong codes. Simulation results show that the proposed algorithm can almost achieve the BER performance of the optimum MUD (OMD). Furthermore, compared with OMD, the proposed algorithm has lower computational complexity, and its BER performance is less sensitive to the number of users.

Bitcoin Price Forecasting Using Neural Decomposition and Deep Learning

  • 마렌드라;김나랑;이태헌;유승의
    • 한국산업정보학회논문지
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    • 제23권4호
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    • pp.81-92
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    • 2018
  • Bitcoin is a cryptographic digital currency and has been given a significant amount of attention in literature since it was first introduced by Satoshi Nakamoto in 2009. It has become an outstanding digital currency with a current market capitalization of approximately $60 billion. By 2019, it is expected to have over 5 million users. Nowadays, investing in Bitcoin is popular, and along with the advantages and disadvantages of Bitcoin, learning how to forecast is important for investors in their decision-making so that they are able to anticipate problems and earn a profit. However, most investors are reluctant to invest in bitcoin because it often fluctuates and is unpredictable, which may cost a lot of money. In this paper, we focus on solving the Bitcoin forecasting prediction problem based on deep learning structures and neural decomposition. First, we propose a deep learning-based framework for the bitcoin forecasting problem with deep feed forward neural network. Forecasting is a time-dependent data type; thus, to extract the information from the data requires decomposition as the feature extraction technique. Based on the results of the experiment, the use of neural decomposition and deep neural networks allows for accurate predictions of around 89%.

농촌환경자원의 정보관리시스템 구축 (Development of Management Information System of Rural Environmental Resources)

  • 이상영;김상범
    • 농촌계획
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.73-84
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    • 2007
  • The first theme of this study is to preserve and manage rural multi-functionality resource Information. This study is to suggest the method that can irradiate rural multi-functionality resource Information efficiently and constructively. GIS uses PDA and Tablet PC as an investigation tool and verifies the outcome of the development in the investigation system. This study enhanced the mobility function of PDA by installing recording system and camera to the PDA. Also, Using GPS has been ensured scientific precision and realism to the investigation. Direct input on spot can save time, cost and minimize human error by simplifying the investigation process. Database is composed of characters like scale, form, location, distance, resident's opinion and image of 37 resources. The survey system was applied in 170 villages and got a total of 12,270 resources data. Management system should be easy to input and output the surveyed information and to get reports in any kind of form ( i.e. final result can be produced as a map). By utilizing of the Rural Resource information system, the study made a simulation to compare the target areas before and after. Also, digitalized investigation system, minimized re-input and reprocessing of data and enabled to simplify and standardize the process than memorandum investigation. Data collected through digital system could offer people useful information by Web-GIS. It was need to specify practical way in decision-making and a way to measure the value of resources to align with the regional plan. Also, need to keep on developing statistical data and application program that can connect us to present the best solution to support regional planning. Therefore, quality of data is very important. Finally, it is very important to develop various programs to analyze space md rural resource by monitoring rural environment.

소유 집중도가 기업 연구개발 투자에 미치는 영향: 국내 제약 산업을 중심으로 (How Does the Concentration of Ownership Impact R&D Investments? Evidence from Korean Pharmaceutical Firms)

  • 한결;문성욱
    • 기술혁신연구
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    • 제22권2호
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    • pp.157-183
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    • 2014
  • 본 연구는 2004년부터 2008년까지 8년간 국내 제약 기업들을 대상으로 소유 집중도가 기업의 연구개발투자에 미치는 영향을 실증적으로 분석한다. 특히 소유 경영 체제 또는 전문 경영 체제가 소유 집중도와 연구개발투자 간의 관계에 미치는 영향을 분석한다. 분석 결과 최대주주 지분율과 연구개발투자는 역 U자 형태의 상관관계가 있으며, 소유 또는 전문 경영 체제 여부는 역 U자 관계의 강도에 영향을 주는 것으로 나타났다. 즉, 전문 경영 체제하에서는 소유 집중도가 낮을 경우 소유 집중도의 추가적인 증가는 대리인 비용을 줄여 연구개발투자를 소유 경영 체제하에서 보다 더 크게 증가시키지만, 소유 집중도가 높을 경우 소유 집중도의 추가적인 증가는 지나친 위험 노출 증가에 대한 고려로 연구개발투자를 소유 경영 체제하에서 보다 더 빠르게 감소시킨다.

Meta Frontier를 이용한 국내 IT서비스기업의 효율성 분석 및 Tobit 모형을 이용한 효율성 결정요인 분석에 대한 연구 (A Study on the Efficiency Analysis of IT Service Companies Using Meta Frontier and the Determinants of Efficiency Using Tobit Model)

  • 신민수;박지용
    • 한국IT서비스학회지
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    • 제16권4호
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    • pp.15-31
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    • 2017
  • This study analyzes 45 Korea IT service companies from 2012 to 2016 using DEA analysis. Large enterprises, medium enterprises and small and medium enterprises (SMEs). CCR model and BCC model were used for efficiency analysis. Among the various analytical objects, the decision objects which yield the maximum output with minimum input are compared with other analysis objects. The relative inefficiency was measured through this, and Technical Efficiency (TE), Pure Technology Efficiency (PTE), Scale Efficiency (SE), scale profit, reference frequency were analyzed. Also, we analyzed the Technology Gap Ratio (TGR), which is the distance between production function and Meta-Frontier for each firm, using Meta-Frontier analysis. Finally, the Tobit model is used to analyze the sources of efficiency and inefficiency. The inputs are assets, capital, and employees, and the output factor is sales. The analysis shows that large firms are achieving technological achievements more efficiently than small and medium enterprises. As a result, medium-sized enterprises and SMEs can improve efficiency overall through efficient operation of workforce and appropriate combination of inputs such as assets and capital. Also, as a result of the influence factor analysis, it was found that the ratio of the managed asset ratio and the management cost ratio were significant factors influencing the efficiency of the IT service companies. This study suggests the efficiency analysis using DEA for many Korea IT service companies. Inefficient parts of each company are classified according to size and technology. Also, we identify the most efficient companies and analyze the causes of those companies whose profits are lower than their size.

확률.통계적 리스크분석을 활용한 인적재난 위험평가 기법 제안 (Probabilistic Risk Evaluation Method for Human-induced Disaster by Risk Curve Analysis)

  • 박소순
    • 한국방재학회 논문집
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    • 제9권6호
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    • pp.57-68
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    • 2009
  • 최근 인적재난 발생의 불확실성에 대한 유연한 대처를 위해 확률 통계적 재난위험성 평가 및 위험관리 기술에 대한 필요성이 고조되고 있어 관련기술을 인적재난에 적용하기 위한 연구를 수행하였다. 먼저 재난위험성 평가 기법의 실효성, 경제성 및 지속가능한 시스템 구현을 위한 선제조건을 검토하였다. 이로부터 재난의 피해규모-발생확률 분포함수의 이론적 검토를 통해 확률 통계적인 재난위험 지표를 도출하고 재난안전(위험)도 평가에 활용함으로서 보다 간편한 정량적 재난위험도 평가기법을 개발하였기에 이를 소개한다. 또한 이를 활용하여 우리나라와 일본의 확률 통계적인 화재 안전유지 성능을 비교 분석하고 그 결과를 안전지수로 제시하였다. 향후 기존의 재난위험 평가기술과 융화 발전시켜 국내실정에 맞는 미래 재난 추정 및 예측 모델의 최적화 방안을 마련함으로써 지속적인 위험도 분석결과에 기반을 둔 합리적인 통합재난관리 방안 마련이 가능 할 것으로 기대된다.

신제품 개발에서 신기술 및 모듈화 도입이 기업수익에 미치는 영향에 대한 분석 (An Analysis of the Effect of Adopting New Technology and Modularity in NPD on Firm Profitability)

  • 편제범
    • 한국산업정보학회논문지
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    • 제24권6호
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    • pp.81-93
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    • 2019
  • 고객의 요구나 선호도가 다양해짐에 따라 제품의 다양화가 필요하지만, 이는 오퍼레이션스의 비효율성이 야기될 수 있어 기업의 중요 관심사가 되고 있다. 따라서 원활한 오퍼레이션스 기능 수행을 위해 기업들은 제품의 모듈화 구조를 도입해 왔다. 하지만 신제품 개발 과정에서 모듈화의 효과를 계량적으로 분석한 연구는 미흡하다. 이에 본 연구는 기존 제품에 신기술이 포함된 부품이 도입되는 제품개발의 상황에서 모듈화가 기업의 수익에 미치는 영향에 관한 계량모델을 개발하고 이를 분석하여 몇 가지 중요한 명제를 도출함으로써 신제품 개발 시 고려해야 할 신기술 도입 및 모듈화의 의사결정에 필요한 가이드라인을 제시하였다. 연구 결과, i) 제품의 업그레이드가 용이하거나, ii) 외부요인으로 인해 제품의 가격이 높게 책정되어야 할 경우, iii) 신기술 투자비용의 효과가 불확실할 경우, 모듈화 수준을 높이는 노력이 필요하고, 모듈화에 대한 수요탄력성이 낮은 제품의 신제품 개발 시에는 신기술 도입의 투자비용을 늘리는 것이 바람직하다.