• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.23 no.4
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• pp.42-48
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• 2015

This paper has its purpose on constructing a prediction model of the arrival sequencing strategy which reflects the actual sequencing patterns of air traffic controllers. As the first step, we analyzed a pair-wise sequencing of two aircraft entering TMA from different entering points. Based on the historical trajectory data, several traffic factors such as time, speed and traffic density were examined for the model. With statistically significant factors, we constructed a prediction model of arrival sequencing through a binary logistic regression analysis. With the estimated coefficients, the performance of the model was conducted through a cross validation.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Aviation and Aeronautics
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.39-46
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• 2018

Departure Manager (DMAN) is a tool to optimize the departure sequence and to suggest appropriate take-off time and off-block time of each departure aircraft to the air traffic controllers. To that end, Variable Taxi Time (VTT), which is time duration of the aircraft from the stand to the runway, should be estimated. In this paper, a study for development of VTT prediction algorithm based on machine learning techniques is presented. The factors affecting aircraft taxi speeds were identified through the analysis of historical traffic data on the airport surface. The prediction model suggested in this study consists of several sub-models that reflect different types of surface maneuvers based on the analysis result. The prediction performance of the proposed method was evaluated using the actual operational data.

• Journal of Information Technology Services
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• v.21 no.3
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• pp.63-72
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• 2022

The extinction crisis of local cities, caused by a population density increase phenomenon in capital regions, directly causes the increase of vacant houses in local cities. According to population and housing census, Gunsan-si has continuously shown increasing trend of vacant houses during 2015 to 2019. In particular, since Gunsan-si is the city which suffers from doughnut effect and industrial decline, problems regrading to vacant house seems to exacerbate. This study aims to provide a foundation of a system which can predict and deal with the building that has high risk of becoming vacant house through implementing a data driven vacant house prediction machine learning model. Methodologically, this study analyzes three types of machine learning model by differing the data components. First model is trained based on building register, individual declared land value, house price and socioeconomic data and second model is trained with the same data as first model but with additional POI(Point of Interest) data. Finally, third model is trained with same data as the second model but with excluding water usage and electricity usage data. As a result, second model shows the best performance based on F1-score. Random Forest, Gradient Boosting Machine, XGBoost and LightGBM which are tree ensemble series, show the best performance as a whole. Additionally, the complexity of the model can be reduced through eliminating independent variables that have correlation coefficient between the variables and vacant house status lower than the 0.1 based on absolute value. Finally, this study suggests XGBoost and LightGBM based machine learning model, which can handle missing values, as final vacant house prediction model.

• Environmental Engineering Research
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.404-411
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• 2019

In this study, we designed a data-driven model to predict chlorophyll-a using M5P model tree and extreme learning machine (ELM). The Juksan weir in the Youngsan River has high chlorophyll-a, which is the primary indicator of algal bloom every year. Short-term algal bloom prediction is important for environmental management and ecological assessment. Two models were developed and evaluated for short-term algal bloom prediction. M5P is a classification and regression-analysis-based method, and ELM is a feed-forward neural network with fast learning using the least square estimate for regression. The dataset used in this study includes water temperature, rainfall, solar radiation, total nitrogen, total phosphorus, N/P ratio, and chlorophyll-a, which were collected on a daily basis from January 2013 to December 2016. The M5P model showed that the prediction model after one day had the highest performance power and dropped off rapidly starting with predictions after three days. Comparing the performance power of the ELM model with the M5P model, it was found that the performance power of the 1-7 d chlorophyll-a prediction model was higher. Moreover, in a period of rapidly increasing algal blooms, the ELM model showed higher accuracy than the M5P model.

• Journal of Korean Society of Disaster and Security
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• v.12 no.2
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• pp.73-82
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• 2019

Recently, as the occurrence frequency of sudden floods due to climate change increased, the flood damage on riverside social infrastructures was extended so that there has been a threat of overflow. Therefore, a rapid prediction of potential flooding in riverside social infrastructure is necessary for administrators. However, most current flood forecasting models including hydraulic model have limitations which are the high accuracy of numerical results but longer simulation time. To alleviate such limitation, data driven models using artificial neural network have been widely used. However, there is a limitation that the existing models can not consider the time-series parameters. In this study the water surface elevation of the Hangang River bridge was predicted using the NARX model considering the time-series parameter. And the results of the ANN and RNN models are compared with the NARX model to determine the suitability of NARX model. Using the 10-year hydrological data from 2009 to 2018, 70% of the hydrological data were used for learning and 15% was used for testing and evaluation respectively. As a result of predicting the water surface elevation after 3 hours from the Hangang River bridge in 2018, the ANN, RNN and NARX models for RMSE were 0.20 m, 0.11 m, and 0.09 m, respectively, and 0.12 m, 0.06 m, and 0.05 m for MAE, and 1.56 m, 0.55 m and 0.10 m for peak errors respectively. By analyzing the error of the prediction results considering the time-series parameters, the NARX model is most suitable for predicting water surface elevation. This is because the NARX model can learn the trend of the time series data and also can derive the accurate prediction value even in the high water surface elevation prediction by using the hyperbolic tangent and Rectified Linear Unit function as an activation function. However, the NARX model has a limit to generate a vanishing gradient as the sequence length becomes longer. In the future, the accuracy of the water surface elevation prediction will be examined by using the LSTM model.

• The Plant Pathology Journal
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• v.36 no.1
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• pp.54-66
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• 2020

This study was conducted to evaluate usefulness of numerical weather prediction data generated by the Unified Model (UM) for plant disease forecast. Using the UM06- and UM18-predicted weather data, which were released at 0600 and 1800 Universal Time Coordinated (UTC), respectively, by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), disease forecast on bacterial grain rot (BGR) of rice was examined as compared with the model output based on the automated weather stations (AWS)-observed weather data. We analyzed performance of BGRcast based on the UM-predicted and the AWS-observed daily minimum temperature and average relative humidity in 2014 and 2015 from 29 locations representing major rice growing areas in Korea using regression analysis and two-way contingency table analysis. Temporal changes in weather conduciveness at two locations in 2014 were also analyzed with regard to daily weather conduciveness (C_i) and the 20-day and 7-day moving averages of C_i for the inoculum build-up phase (C_inc) prior to the panicle emergence of rice plants and the infection phase (C_inf) during the heading stage of rice plants, respectively. Based on C_inc and C_inf, we were able to obtain the same disease warnings at all locations regardless of the sources of weather data. In conclusion, the numerical weather prediction data from KMA could be reliable to apply as input data for plant disease forecast models. Weather prediction data would facilitate applications of weather-driven disease models for better disease management. Crop growers would have better options for disease control including both protective and curative measures when weather prediction data are used for disease warning.

• The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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• v.58 no.7
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• pp.1443-1449
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• 2009

This paper presents a profiling model of a wide-window superscalar microprocessor using multiple branch prediction. The key idea is to apply statistical profiling technique to the superscalar microprocessor with a wide instruction window and a multiple branch predictor. The statistical profiling data are used to obtain a synthetical instruction trace, and the consecutive multiple branch prediction rates are utilized for running trace-driven simulation on the synthesized instruction trace. We describe our design and evaluate it with the SPEC 2000 integer benchmarks. Our performance model can achieve accuracy of 8.5 % on the average.

• International Journal of Advanced Culture Technology
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• v.7 no.1
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• pp.8-13
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• 2019

Despite technical advances in healthcare, the rates of hospital-acquired pressure injury (HAPI) are still high although many are potentially preventable. The purpose of this study was to determine whether tree-based prediction modeling is suitable for assessing the risk of HAPI in ICU patients. Retrospective cohort study has been carried out. A decision tree model was constructed with Age, Weight, eTube, diabetes, Braden score, Isolation, and Number of comorbid conditions as decision nodes. We used RStudio for model training and testing. Correct prediction rate of the final prediction model was 92.4 and the Area Under the ROC curve (AUC) was 0.699, which means there is about 70% chance that the model is able to distinguish between HAPI and non-HAPI. The results of this study has limited generalizability as the data were from a single academic institution. Our research finding shows that the data-driven tree-based prediction modeling may potentially support ICU sensitive risk assessment for HAPI prevention.

• KEPCO Journal on Electric Power and Energy
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• v.4 no.2
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• pp.101-105
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• 2018

In this paper, the kernel regression model is applied for the case study of gas turbine abnormal state analysis. In addition to vibration analysis at the remote site, the kernel regression model technique can is useful for analyzing abnormal state of rotor vibration signals of gas turbine in power plant. In monitoring based on data-driven techniques correlated measurements, the fault free training data of shaft vibration obtained during normal operations of gas turbine are used to develop a empirical model based on auto-associative kernel regression. This data-driven model can be used to predict virtual measurements, which are compared with real-time data, generating residuals. Any faults in the system may cause statistically abnormal changes in these residuals and could be detected. As the result, the kernel regression model provides information that can distinguish anomalies such as sensor failure in a shaft vibration signal.

• KSII Transactions on Internet and Information Systems (TIIS)
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• v.10 no.7
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• pp.3150-3170
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• 2016

In Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS), logistics distribution and mobile e-commerce, the real-time, accurate and reliable vehicle trajectory prediction has significant application value. Vehicle trajectory prediction can not only provide accurate location-based services, but also can monitor and predict traffic situation in advance, and then further recommend the optimal route for users. In this paper, firstly, we mine the double layers of hidden states of vehicle historical trajectories, and then determine the parameters of HMM (hidden Markov model) by historical data. Secondly, we adopt Viterbi algorithm to seek the double layers hidden states sequences corresponding to the just driven trajectory. Finally, we propose a new algorithm (DHMTP) for vehicle trajectory prediction based on the hidden Markov model of double layers hidden states, and predict the nearest neighbor unit of location information of the next k stages. The experimental results demonstrate that the prediction accuracy of the proposed algorithm is increased by 18.3% compared with TPMO algorithm and increased by 23.1% compared with Naive algorithm in aspect of predicting the next k phases' trajectories, especially when traffic flow is greater, such as this time from weekday morning to evening. Moreover, the time performance of DHMTP algorithm is also clearly improved compared with TPMO algorithm.