• Title/Summary/Keyword: Data uncertainty

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Quantitative Comparison of Activity Calculation Methods for the Selection of Most Reliable Radionuclide Inventory Estimation

  • Hwang, Ki-Ha;Lee, Sang-Chul;Lee, Kun-Jai;Jeong, Chan-Woo;Ahn, Sang-Myeon;Kim, Tae-Wook;Kim, Kyoung-Doek;Herr, Y.H.
    • Proceedings of the Korean Radioactive Waste Society Conference
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    • 2003.11a
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    • pp.322-327
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    • 2003
  • It is important to know the accurate radionuclide inventory of radioactive waste for the reliable management. However, estimation of radionuclide concentrations in drummed radioactive waste is difficult and unreliable because of difficulties of direct detection, high cost, and radiation exposure of sampling personnel. In order to overcome these difficulties, scaling factors (SFs) have been used to assess the activities of radionuclides that could not be directly analyzed. A radionuclide assay system has been operated at KORI site since 1996 and consolidated scaling factor method has played a dominant role in determination of radionuclides concentrations. However, some problems are still remained such as uncertainty of estimated scaling factor values, inaccuracy of analyzed sample values, and disparity between the actual and ideal correlation pairs and the others. Therefore, it needs to improve the accuracy of scaling factor values. The scope of this paper is focused on the improvement of accuracy and representativeness of calculated scaling factor values based on statistical techniques. For the selection of reliable activity determination method, the accuracy of estimated SF values for each activity determination method is compared. From the comparison of each activity determination methods, it is recommended that SF determination method should be changed from the arithmetic mean to the geometrical mean for more reliable estimation of radionuclide activity. Arithmetic mean method and geometric mean method are compared based on the data set in KORI system.

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Numerical Study of Pre-swirl Stator for Model and Full Scales (스케일 변화에 따른 전류고정날개의 영향 수치해석)

  • Park, Sunho;Oh, Gwangho;Rhee, Shin Hyung;Koo, Bon-Yong;Lee, Hoseong
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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    • v.17 no.3
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    • pp.205-211
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    • 2014
  • Interests on energy saving devices (ESDs) have been increased with the concern of the energy efficiency design index (EEDI) developed by the international maritime organization (IMO). To study the influence of ESDs, KVLCC2 with energy saving pre-swirl stator (PSS) was selected. To validate the computations, computed nominal wake of the model scale ship was compared with the experimental data, and the numerical uncertainty assessment was done for the full scale ship computations. The PSS changed rotational flow, which was assistant to the propeller thrust for the model and full scale ships. Performances of the full scale ships were predicted by ITTC methods, and new prediction method was proposed.

Climate Change Impact Assessment of Abies nephrolepis (Trautv.) Maxim. in Subalpine Ecosystem using Ensemble Habitat Suitability Modeling (서식처 적합모형을 적용한 고산지역 분비나무의 기후변화 영향평가)

  • Choi, Jae-Yong;Lee, Sang-Hyuk
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Environmental Restoration Technology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.103-118
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    • 2018
  • Ecosystems in subalpine regions are recognized as areas vulnerable to climatic changes because rainfall and the possibility of flora migration are very low due to the characteristics of topography in the regions. In this context, habitat niche was formulated for representative species of arbors in subalpine regions in order to understand the effects of climatic changes on alpine arbor ecosystems. The current potential habitats were modeled as future change areas according to the climatic change scenarios. Based on the growth conditions and environmental characteristics of the habitats, the study was conducted to identify direct and indirect causes affecting the habitat reduction of Abies nephrolepis. Diverse model algorithms for explanation of the relationship between the emergence of biological species and habitat environments were reviewed to construct the environmental data suitable for the six models(GLM, GAM, RF, MaxEnt, ANN, and SVM). Weights determined through TSS were applied to the six models for ensemble in an attempt to minimize the uncertainty of the models. Based on the current climate determined by averaging the climates over the past 30years(1981~2010) and the HadGEM-RA model was applied to fabricate bioclimatic variables for scenarios RCP 4.5 and 8.5 on the near and far future. The results of models of the alpine region tree species studied were put together and evaluated and the results indicated that a total of eight national parks such as Mt. Seorak, Odaesan, and Hallasan would be mainly affected by climatic changes. Changes in the Baekdudaegan reserves were analyzed and in the results, A. nephrolepis was predicted to be affected the most in the RCP8.5. The results of analysis as such are expected to be finally utilizable in the survey of biological species in the Korean peninsula, restoration and conservation strategies considering climatic changes as the analysis identified the degrees of impacts of climatic changes on subalpine region trees in Korean peninsula with very high conservation values.

Effects of External Environment and Organizational Resources and Capabilities on Strategy and Performance: An evidence from an analysis on ventures (벤처기업의 전략 및 성과에 대한 외부환경과 조직자원 및 능력의 영향)

  • Song, Woo-Yong;Hwang, Kyung-Yun
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.369-387
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    • 2012
  • Based on the survey data, this study focused venture firms examines how organizational resources and capabilities along with its external environmental conditions have an effect on its strategy and performance. In particular, this article attempts, by performing a binary logistic regression analysis, to identify the venture-specific importance and priority of the factors that may influence firms' strategy patterns, with multiple regression analysis on the relationships between some variables included in the model. The survey was conducted from October 1, 2010 through October 30, 2010. The results of this study are the following. First, the more firms are exposed to high industry growth and low competitive intensity, the higher chance they get to pursuit aggressive strategy. And then a firm seeks aggressive strategy, when it has more technological resources and human resources. Third, environmental uncertainty, industry growth, technological resources, human resources, financial resources and marketing capabilities have positive effects on firm's performance. But, competitive intensity has no direct influence firm's performance. Finally, CEO competence directly influences firm's performance, but the interaction. of CEO competence with other variables is not significant.

A Study on the Presumption of Construction Cost of Public Apartment by Analyzing Actual Construction Cost (실적공사비 분석을 통한 공공주택 공사비 추정에 관한 연구)

  • Yoon, Woo-Sung;Lee, Hyun-Chul;Lee, Han-Min;Go, Seong-Seok
    • Korean Journal of Construction Engineering and Management
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.132-144
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    • 2009
  • In this study, the basic data for calculating the proper construction cost as minimizing the uncertainty at the stage of forecasting construction cost with the basis of the analysis on the actual construction cost within completed domestic public apartment house. In this regard, 23 public apartment houses by each region which were ordered by the Korea National Housing Corporation and completed from 2004 to 2007 were selected as the objects of study. Four works such as common temporary installation, construction work, civil work and machine/equipment work which are the important direct cost items based on the actually inputted and settled construction costs were classified by completion year, region, architectural area, and the distribution type considering inflation rate. The sequent actual construction costs per 3.3m2 were compared and analyzed by each work, the proper construction costs were analogized and the calculating formula were presumed with the basis of average actual construction costs to be analyzed and presented.

Application of Stepped Isothermal Methods to Lifetime Prediction of Geogrids (SIM을 적용한 성토보강용 지오그리드의 수명예측)

  • Koo, Hyun-Jin;Kim, You-Kyum;Kim, Dong-Whan
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.4 no.1
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    • pp.3-6
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    • 2005
  • The failure of geogrids can be defined as an excessive creep strain which causes the collapse of slopes and embankments. In this study, the lifetime of knitted polyester geogrids was predicted by using SIM(Stepped Isothermal Methods using TTS principal) and statistical data analysis techniques. The results indicate that the creep strain was 8.74, 8.79, 8.80% with 2.16~2.20% of CV% at 75, 100, 114 years, respectively and the creep strain reaches 9.3% after 100 years of usage at $27^{\circ}C$ which meets the required lifetime(creep strain less than 10% after 100 years of usage) in the fields. The SIM method is shown to be effective in reduction of uncertainty associated with inherent variability of multi-specimen tests and shorter test times than conventional TTS(Time-Temperature Superposition).

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The Use of Reliability-based Approach to Design Anchored Sheet Pile Walls (신뢰성에 근거한 앵커 널말뚝의 설계방안 연구)

  • Kim, Hyung-Bae;Lee, Seoung-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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    • v.18 no.3
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    • pp.95-104
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    • 2002
  • In this study, a reliability-based design (RBD) procedure for determining design values fur anchored sheet pile wall is proposed considering overturning about the anchor point as the major failure mode. In this design procedure, the depth of embedment of the sheet pile wall is logically chosen in accordance with degrees of uncertainties of design input parameters using approximate probabilistic computation methods. These methods have been successfully used in the geotechnical engineering requiring neither understandings of complex probabilistic theories nor efforts to prepare more data. It was investigated that the design results by the proposed method were compatible with those by commonly used deterministic design methods. Additionally, in an effort to investigate the effects of changes in the degree of uncertainties of major design variables on the design results of the sheet pile wall, a sensitivity analysis was peformed.

Program for Estimating the Probability of Causation to Korean Radiation Workers with Cancer (국내 방사선작업종사자에게 발생한 암의 방사선 인과도를 평가하기 위한 인과확률 계산 프로그램)

  • Jeong, Mee-Seon;Jin, Young-Woo;Kim, Chong-Soon
    • Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.221-230
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    • 2004
  • The probability of causation(PC) is the measure to ascertain the likelihood that a particular cancer may be attributed to a particular prior exposure to radiation. Since the PC is involved in several uncertainties, it is desirable to use the confidence limit for the PC, not a point estimate for determining whether to award compensation. We developed the program for estimating the PC to Korean radiation workers with cancer, the so-called RHRI-PEPC, which is based on the most reasonable model for radiation cancer risk and recent Korean baseline data. RHRI-PEPC gives us the upper confidence limit for the PC after adjusting several uncertainties and therefore we can assess more reasonably the causality of radiation exposure for cancer occurred in Korean radiation workers.

DIAMETRAL CREEP PREDICTION OF THE PRESSURE TUBES IN CANDU REACTORS USING A BUNDLE POSITION-WISE LINEAR MODEL

  • Lee, Sung-Han;Kim, Dong-Su;Lee, Sim-Won;No, Young-Gyu;Na, Man-Gyun;Lee, Jae-Yong;Kim, Dong-Hoon;Jang, Chang-Heui
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.43 no.3
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    • pp.301-308
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    • 2011
  • The diametral creep of pressure tubes (PTs) in CANDU (CANada Deuterium Uranium) reactors is one of the principal aging mechanisms governing the heat transfer and hydraulic degradation of the heat transport system (HTS). PT diametral creep leads to diametral expansion, which affects the thermal hydraulic characteristics of the coolant channels and the critical heat flux (CHF). The CHF is a major parameter determining the critical channel power (CCP), which is used in the trip setpoint calculations of regional overpower protection (ROP) systems. Therefore, it is essential to predict PT diametral creep in CANDU reactors. PT diametral creep is caused mainly by fast neutron irradiation, temperature and applied stress. The objective of this study was to develop a bundle position-wise linear model (BPLM) to predict PT diametral creep employing previously measured PT diameters and HTS operating conditions. The linear model was optimized using a genetic algorithm and was devised based on a bundle position because it is expected that each bundle position in a PT channel has inherent characteristics. The proposed BPLM for predicting PT diametral creep was confirmed using the operating data of the Wolsung nuclear power plant in Korea. The linear model was able to predict PT diametral creep accurately.

Determination of EMCs and Comparison with Sampled Concentrations in Paved Areas (포장지역에서의 강우사상별 EMC 산정 및 단순 샘플농도와의 비교)

  • Lee, Eun-Ju;Ko, Seok-Oh;Kang, Hee-Man;Lee, Joo-Kwang;Lee, Byung-Sik;Lim, Kyeong-Ho;Kim, Lee-Hyung
    • Journal of Korean Society on Water Environment
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.104-109
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    • 2006
  • TPLMS programs in four large rivers have been developed to improve the water quality from possible pollutants originated from watershed areas. The success of TPLMS program is depended on nonpoint source control. Currently, the pollutant loading from nonpoint pollution sources is gradually increasing as developing the nearby watershed. However, there are not enough data concerning on nonpoint pollution in Korea because of lacking of monitoring activities. It is the main reason of uncertainty. Therefore, this manuscript will summarize the EMCs in various landuses based on monitoring program. Also the EMC in each paved area will be compared and discussed to find the differences. When the EMC is compared by average monitored sample concentrations, the EMC values are 2-4 times higher than sample concentrations. It means the monitoring program is very important in the field of nonpoint pollution. The pollutant loadings from bridge landuse is higher than loadings from parking lot and highway because of more traffic activities.