• Title/Summary/Keyword: Data trend analysis

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A Study on the Prediction Model of Stock Price Index Trend based on GA-MSVM that Simultaneously Optimizes Feature and Instance Selection (입력변수 및 학습사례 선정을 동시에 최적화하는 GA-MSVM 기반 주가지수 추세 예측 모형에 관한 연구)

  • Lee, Jong-sik;Ahn, Hyunchul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.147-168
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    • 2017
  • There have been many studies on accurate stock market forecasting in academia for a long time, and now there are also various forecasting models using various techniques. Recently, many attempts have been made to predict the stock index using various machine learning methods including Deep Learning. Although the fundamental analysis and the technical analysis method are used for the analysis of the traditional stock investment transaction, the technical analysis method is more useful for the application of the short-term transaction prediction or statistical and mathematical techniques. Most of the studies that have been conducted using these technical indicators have studied the model of predicting stock prices by binary classification - rising or falling - of stock market fluctuations in the future market (usually next trading day). However, it is also true that this binary classification has many unfavorable aspects in predicting trends, identifying trading signals, or signaling portfolio rebalancing. In this study, we try to predict the stock index by expanding the stock index trend (upward trend, boxed, downward trend) to the multiple classification system in the existing binary index method. In order to solve this multi-classification problem, a technique such as Multinomial Logistic Regression Analysis (MLOGIT), Multiple Discriminant Analysis (MDA) or Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) we propose an optimization model using Genetic Algorithm as a wrapper for improving the performance of this model using Multi-classification Support Vector Machines (MSVM), which has proved to be superior in prediction performance. In particular, the proposed model named GA-MSVM is designed to maximize model performance by optimizing not only the kernel function parameters of MSVM, but also the optimal selection of input variables (feature selection) as well as instance selection. In order to verify the performance of the proposed model, we applied the proposed method to the real data. The results show that the proposed method is more effective than the conventional multivariate SVM, which has been known to show the best prediction performance up to now, as well as existing artificial intelligence / data mining techniques such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, and it is confirmed that the prediction performance is better than this. Especially, it has been confirmed that the 'instance selection' plays a very important role in predicting the stock index trend, and it is confirmed that the improvement effect of the model is more important than other factors. To verify the usefulness of GA-MSVM, we applied it to Korea's real KOSPI200 stock index trend forecast. Our research is primarily aimed at predicting trend segments to capture signal acquisition or short-term trend transition points. The experimental data set includes technical indicators such as the price and volatility index (2004 ~ 2017) and macroeconomic data (interest rate, exchange rate, S&P 500, etc.) of KOSPI200 stock index in Korea. Using a variety of statistical methods including one-way ANOVA and stepwise MDA, 15 indicators were selected as candidate independent variables. The dependent variable, trend classification, was classified into three states: 1 (upward trend), 0 (boxed), and -1 (downward trend). 70% of the total data for each class was used for training and the remaining 30% was used for verifying. To verify the performance of the proposed model, several comparative model experiments such as MDA, MLOGIT, CBR, ANN and MSVM were conducted. MSVM has adopted the One-Against-One (OAO) approach, which is known as the most accurate approach among the various MSVM approaches. Although there are some limitations, the final experimental results demonstrate that the proposed model, GA-MSVM, performs at a significantly higher level than all comparative models.

Topic Modeling Analysis of Beauty Industry using BERTopic and LDA

  • YANG, Hoe-Chang;LEE, Won-Dong
    • The Journal of Economics, Marketing and Management
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    • v.10 no.6
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is identifying the research trends of degree papers related to the beauty industry and providing information which can contribute to the development of the domestic beauty industry and the direction of various research about beauty industry. Research design, data and methodology: This study used 154 academic papers and 189 academic papers with English abstracts out of 299 academic papers. All of these papers were found by searching for the keyword "beauty industry" in ScienceON on August 15, 2022. For the analysis, BERTopic and LDA (Latent Dirichlet Allocation) analysis were conducted using Python 3.7. Also, OLS regression analysis was conducted to understand the annual increase and decrease trend of each topic derived with trend analysis. Results: As a result of word frequency analysis, the frequency of satisfaction, management, behavior, and service was found to be high. In addition, it was found that 'service', 'satisfaction' and 'customer' were frequently associated with program and relationship in the word co-occurrence frequency analysis. As a result of topic modeling, six topics were derived: 'Beauty shop', 'Health education', 'Cosmetics', 'Customer satisfaction', 'Beauty education', and 'Beauty business'. The trend analysis result of each topic confirmed that 'Beauty education' and 'Health education' are getting more attention as time goes by. Conclusions: The future studies must resolve the extreme polarization between the structure of the small beauty industry and beauty stores. Furthermore, the researches have to direct various ways to create the performance of internal personnel. The ways to maximize product capabilities such as competitive cosmetics and brands are also needed attentions.

Evaluation of long-term water quality management policy effect using nonparametric statistical methods

  • Jung, Kang Young;Ahn, Jung Min;Cho, Sohyun;Lee, Yeong Jae;Han, Kun Yeun;Shin, Dongseok;Kim, Kyunghyun
    • Membrane and Water Treatment
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    • v.10 no.5
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    • pp.339-352
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    • 2019
  • Long term water quality change was analyzed to evaluate the effect of the Total Maximum Daily Load (TMDL) policy. A trend analysis was performed for biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) and total phosphorus (TP) concentrations data monitored at the outlets of the total 41 TMDL unit watersheds of the Nakdong River in the Republic of Korea. Because water quality data do not usually follow a normal distribution, a nonparametric statistical trend analysis method was used. The monthly mean values of BOD and TP for the period between 2004 and 2015 were analyzed by the seasonal Mann-Kendall test and the locally weighted scatterplot smoother (LOWESS). The TMDL policy effect on the water quality change of each unit watershed was analyzed together with the results of the trend analysis. From the seasonal Mann-Kendall test results, it was found that for BOD, 7.8 % of the 41 points showed downward trends, 26.8 % and the rest 65.9% showed upward and no trends. For TP, 51.2% showed no trends and the rest 48.8% showed downward trends. From the LOWESS analysis results, TP began to decrease in most of the unit watersheds from mid-2010s when intensive chemical treatment processes were introduced to existing wastewater treatment plants. Overall, for BOD, relatively more points were improved in the main stream compared to the points of the tributaries although overall trends were mostly no trend or upward. For TP, about half of the points were improved and the rest showed no trends.

Catastrophic Health Expenditure and Trend of South Korea in 2017 (2017년 재난적 의료비 경험률 현황 및 추이)

  • Kim, Yunkyung;Choi, Dong-Woo;Park, Eun-Cheol
    • Health Policy and Management
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.86-89
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    • 2019
  • Catastrophic health expenditure refers to spending more than a certain level of household's income on healthcare expenditure. The aim of this study was to investigate the proportion of households that experienced catastrophic health expenditure between 2006 and 2017 with the National Survey of Tax and Benefit (NaSTaB) and between 2011 to 2016 using Households Income and Expenditure Survey (HIES) data. The results of the NaSTaB showed 2.16% of households experienced the catastrophic health expenditure in 2017. In trend analysis, the NaSTaB revealed a statistically significant decreasing trend (annual percentage change [APC] = -2.01, p<0.001) in the proportion of households with the catastrophic health expenditure. On the other hand, the results of the HIES showed 2.92% of households experienced the catastrophic health expenditure in 2016. Also, there was a slightly increasing trend (APC= 1.43, p<0.001). In subgroup analysis, groups with lower income levels were likely to experience catastrophic health expenditure. In conclusion, further public support system is needed to lower experience these healthcare expenditures and monitor the low income group.

Development of TREND dynamics code for molten salt reactors

  • Yu, Wen;Ruan, Jian;He, Long;Kendrick, James;Zou, Yang;Xu, Hongjie
    • Nuclear Engineering and Technology
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    • v.53 no.2
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    • pp.455-465
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    • 2021
  • The Molten Salt Reactor (MSR), one of the six advanced reactor types of the 4th generation nuclear energy systems, has many impressive features including economic advantages, inherent safety and nuclear non-proliferation. This paper introduces a system analysis code named TREND, which is developed and used for the steady and transient simulation of MSRs. The TREND code calculates the distributions of pressure, velocity and temperature of single-phase flows by solving the conservation equations of mass, momentum and energy, along with a fluid state equation. Heat structures coupled with the fluid dynamics model is sufficient to meet the demands of modeling MSR system-level thermal-hydraulics. The core power is based on the point reactor neutron kinetics model calculated by the typical Runge-Kutta method. An incremental PID controller is inserted to adjust the operation behaviors. The verification and validation of the TREND code have been carried out in two aspects: detailed code-to-code comparison with established thermal-hydraulic system codes such as RELAP5, and validation with the experimental data from MSRE and the CIET facility (the University of California, Berkeley's Compact Integral Effects Test facility).The results indicate that TREND can be used in analyzing the transient behaviors of MSRs and will be improved by validating with more experimental results with the support of SINAP.

A Foreign Trend of Solar Energy (국외 태양광 에너지 동향)

  • Jung, Jong-Wook;Kim, Sun-Gu;Kim, Oh-Hwan;Han, Woon-Ki
    • Proceedings of the Korean Institute of Electrical and Electronic Material Engineers Conference
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    • 2009.06a
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    • pp.463-464
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    • 2009
  • This paper describes the political and technical trends of foreign 10 countries advanced in solar energy field. In the trend analysis, a couple of statistical data and related references were compared. As a result, all of the advanced countries mentioned in this paper have their own PV policy strategies and regulatory frameworks to strengthen their stable market structures and have financially supported by various types of incentives and tariff systems. It was confirmed that the political basis and technical regulations including electrical safety have to be prepared as soon as possible at both national and rural level in this country.

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A Research Trend on the Stages of Interior Design Process - Focused on The Analysis of KIID Journal - (디자인 과정 단계별 실내디자인 연구 경향 - 한국 실내디자인학회 논문집 분석을 중심으로 -)

  • 이민아
    • Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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    • no.39
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    • pp.54-61
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this paper was to study interior design research trend through categorizing the research in interior design process and investigating the research method used at each stage of the process. The ultimate aim was to evaluate the relationship of design process and interior design research and to indicate the guide line of future research. As results of the study, interior design research did not reflect recently increasing renovation and remodeling trend since evaluation research was less performed than data collection, program and design development research. Only educational/research space showed higher rate in evaluation research. In recent years, interior design research is interested in objective design problem solving since programming research Increased, and in user-participation planning since questionnaire and interview research Increased as data collection method. For the future research, it is expected researchers to show creative thinking process on the stage of design development and to develop various research method on the stage of evaluation.

A Study on the Characteristics of Change by Observation Area which changes as the observation time passes in Interior Space (실내공간에서 주시시간의 경과에 따른 구역별 주시특성에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Jong-Ha;Ban, Young-Sun
    • Korean Institute of Interior Design Journal
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.84-91
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    • 2012
  • The total data of observing interior space was divided into a few time frames for analysis. If we can understand the changing process of observation degree as the observation time passes, we will be able to analyse the characteristic and process of information obtainment in the case of space observation. For this purpose, the observation time was parted into 30 second units and the changing characteristic by time frame and observation area was analysed. The conclusion derived from this study is as the following: First, analysis of observation frequency and time on the basis of the average data of each subject showed that the observation time increased compared with the subject's frequency and the overall trend but that it was difficult for me to think there was a certain trend in the observation time of each subject. However, when I examined the time change by using the trend line which is a dynamic average line representing the observation time from the subjects as the trend element of time series, I could see the trend that the subject's observation time increased at a fixed rate as the frequency increased. Second, when I compared and analysed the average observation area at Area I set up by the time of 30 second unit and the observation area of Area I from the all data, I could see that the former had more degree of concentration at Area I. This analysis enabled me to get the degree of concentration on the observed area every time, and accordingly I could also see that when the data of intensive observation by time frame is analysed, the degree of concentration is dispersed for the subjects to observe very intensively or the area with overlapping observations each time frame can be seen as Area I out of the entire observation data. Third, when I analysed the observation characteristics by time frame at the 6 areas divided at 30 second unit at the rate of the number to the time of observation areas, I could see that as the observation time passed while the number of the observation areas defined as decreased the observation time increased, which means that when the area numbers decreases the area intensively observed by the subjects decreases as the time passes. In spit of that, the increase of time can be interpreted as more intensive observation of a specific area.

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Hotel Uniform Proposal for Jeju I

  • Kwon, Sookhee
    • Fashion & Textile Research Journal
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.987-994
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    • 2014
  • The purpose of this research is to propose employee uniforms for tourist hotels on Jeju Island, such uniforms that embrace Jeju's unique culture and promote the tourism of Jeju Island. It has been suggested that there exists a need for hotel employee uniforms to attract more tourist attention and boost Jeju's tourism industry. We designed the uniform after analyzing the empirical data collected from academia thesis, periodicals, papers and pictures from internet search, and fashion industry magazines. The uniform analysis and production procedures are as follows: (1) precedent research case review (2) current (existing) uniform status survey (3) latest fashion trend analysis (2010 - 2014) (4) creating the uniform implementing the trend-based design with Gal Cheon, Jeju's cultural product material. We found tipping points of the design through literature and trend analysis; we developed appropriate uniforms accordingly that are harmonious with Jeju's unique identity. We received great evaluations on the appearance and comfort as well. A new concept of uniform featuring Gal Cheon has been proposed. It is expected that the uniforms will promote the brand image of Jeju as an international freedom city and its culture.

Analysis of Global Research Trend on Information Security (정보보안에 대한 연구 트렌드 분석)

  • Kim, Won-pil
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.19 no.5
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    • pp.1110-1116
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    • 2015
  • This paper analyzes global research trend on information security. All technical fields based on information requires security so that discovering technologies (technical terms) which are developing newly or dramatically is able to guide the future direction of the field of information security. In this paper, the ultimate of this research is to figure out the technologies related to information security and to forecast the future through understanding their trends. The paper, as a beginning for the analysis on macroscopic viewpoint, contains measurement of yearly relatedness between technical terms from 2001 to 2014 by using temporal co-occurrence and interpretation of its meaning through comparing the relatedness with trends of top-related technical terms. And to conclude, we could find that Android platform, Big data, Internet of things, Mobile technologies, and Cloud computing are emerging technologies on information security.