• Korea Trade Review
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• v.46 no.6
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• pp.191-209
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• 2021

In this paper, various time series analysis models and machine learning models are presented for long-term prediction of export growth rate, and the prediction performance is compared and reviewed by RMSE and MAE. Export growth rate is one of the major economic indicators to evaluate the economic status. And It is also used to predict economic forecast. The export growth rate may have a negative (-) value as well as a positive (+) value. Therefore, Instead of using the ReLU function, which is often used for time series prediction of deep learning models, the PReLU function, which can have a negative (-) value as an output value, was used as the activation function of deep learning models. The time series prediction performance of each model for three types of data was compared and reviewed. The forecast data of long-term prediction of export growth rate was deduced by three forecast methods such as a fixed forecast method, a recursive forecast method and a rolling forecast method. As a result of the forecast, the traditional time series analysis model, ARDL, showed excellent performance, but as the time period of learning data increases, the performance of machine learning models including LSTM was relatively improved.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.8
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• pp.13-19
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• 2021

To provide empirical evidence on the impact of export instability on economic growth in developing countries, this study estimated the neoclassical production function using data of the Jordanian economy for the period 1995-2019. Real exports, real capital, and export instability were the independent variables in the production function. To determine the appropriate methodology for estimating the production function, the study conducted some preliminary tests, including the Augmented-Dickey Fuller (ADF), on the study data. The results of this test indicated that all study variables were stationary at first difference. Therefore, the Johanson cointegration test was applied to determine that there was cointegration between the study variables since the results of the former test indicated that there was one cointegration vector between these variables. The cointegration equation revealed a positive and statistically significant impact of real capital, real exports, and an indicator of export instability on economic growth. The most important policy implications for these results would be reducing the geographical concentration of exports through the expansion of free trade agreements (FTA) to enhance the positive impact of the instability of exports on economic growth. Moreover, the study recommends strengthening export-oriented actions to achieve higher levels of economic growth.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.26 no.5
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• pp.39-55
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• 2022

Purpose - This study empirically examines the effect of the Korean government export promotion program (EPP) on small and medium-sized enterprise (SMEs) export performance using firm-level data. Unlike most previous studies that investigated some specific samples of firms, this study analyzes a vast amount of SME data of the Korean Small and Medium Business Administration over the period 2005 to 2008. Design/methodology - An endogeneity problem arises when a firm's probability of being selected is correlated with the likelihood of successfully implementing EPPs. To control for the endogeneity of the EPPs in a relatively short-period sample, we employ 2-Stage Residual Inclusion (2SRI) RE-Tobit and bivariate Tobit procedure. Findings - Analyses show that Korean government EPPs have positive significant effects on SME exports. Empirical results also show that SME export activities are significantly encouraged by R&D investment and capital intensity, but not obviously by labor productivity. Originality/value - This study provides evidence that SME capital intensity, R&D investment, and the number of workers are significant determinants to SME exporting activities, whereas per worker labor cost and employee education are not. These results imply that even for SMEs, firm size is a major factor in promoting exporting activities.

• The Research Journal of the Costume Culture
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• v.17 no.5
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• pp.897-910
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• 2009

Clothing exports of Korea have been steadily declining since 1990, but its international competitiveness will be continued in the future because of its history and technology. The purpose of this study is to find out the characteristics of knitted clothing exports of Korea compared to China. Statistical data of knitted clothing articles(HS 61) $2000{\sim}2008$ were used for analyses. The results of the study were as follows: First, the proportion of knitted clothing export out of the total clothing export has been consistently increased in Korea and China both, it is similar now. Second, export articles of large proportion are different between Korea and China. Socks, gloves and fancy goods became major export articles in Korea and men's and women's clothing in China in late 2000's. Third, the unit price of Korean export clothing is higher than that of Chinese from two to ten times. Generally the growth rate of unit prices of Korea outpaced that of China. The results of this study will help Korean export firms to develop competitive export articles and make out export strategy.

• Journal of Distribution Science
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• v.15 no.10
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• pp.65-80
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• 2017

Purpose - The purpose of the present study is to discover success factors for small and medium-sized exporting enterprises and to derive factors that can positively influence the export of small and medium-sized enterprises. The ultimate goal is to contribute to the problem solution mentioned above. Research design, data, and methodology - A total of 258 filled-in questionnaires were collected; afterwards, frequency and cross tabulation analyses were conducted. The PPML analytic technique was applied to the core factors analyzed in Stages 1 and 2 to conduct regression analysis (cause and effect analysis and estimation method), thereby deriving success factors. Result - Based on detailed factors, a total of 15 success factors directly/indirectly involved in the success of export in small and medium-sized enterprises comprising 9 success factors, three positive effect factors for export, and three governments support policy factors were identified. Conclusions - The present paper is a rare empirical study paper that found and presented three detailed factors that positively influence on export and three government support policy factors, in addition to the above factors. Therefore, the results can be used by small and medium-sized enterprises that require not only previous studies, but also actual export success factor.

• The Journal of Industrial Distribution & Business
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• v.11 no.9
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• pp.7-16
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• 2020

Purpose: Many studies show that promoting the development of trade facilitation has a positive role in stimulating the country's foreign trade. Therefore, it is of great practical significance to study the development level of trade facilitation for China's export trade. Research design, data and methodology:This study analyzes the growth trend of China's export trade volume in 2009-2019, the characteristics of China's export trade market according to the top 18 major exporting countries in 2017-2018, the structure of export commodities to understand China's economic development level, and compares the total amount of trade exported to all uses this to measure the level of trade development. On this basis, this paper selects the 2011-2018 Trade Facilitation Index and C continents to study the development trend. Based on the theory of trade facilitation, this paper constructs the Trade Facilitation Index, and hina's export trade volume for empirical research. Results: The results show that trade facilitation has a positive and significant impact on the development of China's export trade. Conclusions: Based on the analysis of the actual situations and empirical results, this paper puts forward some suggestions to promote the level of trade facilitation in order to promote the development of import and export trade.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• v.8 no.11
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• pp.145-155
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• 2021

This study examines the export competitiveness of four major natural rubber exporters in the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) region and investigates the factors affecting bilateral natural rubber export. This study utilized the revealed symmetric comparative advantage (RSCA) to measure export competitiveness. Next, this study employed the gravity model using the Poisson Pseudo Maximum Likelihood (PPML) estimation to analyze the factors affecting bilateral export from the four major natural rubber exporters to 46 countries in the region. The analysis is conducted by using annual data from 2001 till 2018. The findings showed that all four major exporters maintained their export competitiveness. Indonesia and Vietnam notably exhibited increasing trends in the early 2000s. Besides, the market share for Malaysia and Vietnam have increased from 2013 to 2015 with the BRI implementation in 2013. In addition, this study discovered that non-tariff measures (NTM) have a positive and significant impact on the bilateral export of natural rubber. The overall findings strongly indicate that the natural rubber export has increased post BRI announcement. The outcome highlighted the benefits of BRI implementation on the natural rubber export. This study is the first attempt to apply the gravity model on the natural rubber exports within the BRI region.

• Journal of Korea Society of Industrial Information Systems
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.61-72
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• 2013

The relationship between export growth and economic growth in developing countries has been one of the main issues in the growth theory field. Many of empirical studies have been done during the last three decades in order to investigate the export-led growth hypothesis using either time-series or cross-sectional data mainly in developing countries. This paper applies cointegration and error correction models to test causal relationship between export growth and economic growth in the Korean 8 manufacturing industries using the industrial time-series quarterly data over 1975-2010. The export-output relationship is tested by including industrial capital stock and the industrial labor force as exogenous variables. The cointegration and error-correction modelling technique with industrial export and output data have showed the strong evidence that there is a bi-directional causality between industrial export and industrial output in 6 manufacturing industries except wood & pulp and nonmetallic industries.

• Journal of Korea Port Economic Association
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.1-14
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• 2015

The standard GARCH model imposing symmetry on the conditional variance, tends to fail in capturing some important features of the data. This paper, hence, introduces the models capturing asymmetric effect. They are the EGARCH model and the GJR model. We provide the systematic comparison of volatility models focusing on the asymmetric effect of news on volatility. Specifically, three diagnostic tests are provided: the sign bias test, the negative size bias test, and the positive size bias test. This paper shows that there is significant evidence of GARCH-type process in the data, as shown by the test for the Ljung-Box Q statistic on the squared residual data. The estimated unconditional density function for squared residual is clearly skewed to the left and markedly leptokurtic when compared with the standard normal distribution. The observation of volatility clustering is also clearly reinforced by the plot of the squared value of residuals of export volume and values. The unconditional variance of both export volumes and export value indicates that large shocks of either sign tend to be followed by large shocks, and small shocks of either sign tend to follow small shocks. The estimated export volume news impact curve for the GARCH also suggests that $h_t$ is overestimated for large negative and positive shocks. The conditional variance equation of the GARCH model for export volumes contains two parameters ${\alpha}$ and ${\beta}$ that are insignificant, indicating that the GARCH model is a poor characterization of the conditional variance of export volumes. The conditional variance equation of the EGARCH model for export value, however, shows a positive sign of parameter ${\delta}$, which is contrary to our expectation, while the GJR model exhibits that parameters ${\alpha}$ and ${\beta}$ are insignificant, and ${\delta}$ is marginally significant. That indicates that the asymmetric volatility models are poor characterization of the conditional variance of export value. It is concluded that the asymmetric EGARCH and GJR model are appropriate in explaining the volatility of export volume, while the symmetric standard GARCH model is good for capturing the volatility.

• Journal of Korea Trade
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• v.26 no.1
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• pp.20-32
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• 2022

Purpose - This paper intends to make theoretical analysis and empirical test on the factors influencing China's export to South Korea, and draw conclusions about China's export efficiency and trade potential. Based on the conclusions, the reasons for China's trade deficit with South Korea are found, and a solution is put forward for solving the problem of China's trade deficit with South Korea. Design/methodology - Based on the data of 2004-2017 years in China, this paper uses the stochastic frontier gravity model to analyze the influencing factors of China's export to South Korea, as well as the export efficiency of each province and the export potential that can be explored. Findings - First, in terms of the factors affecting China's export trade to South Korea, the GDP of the provinces and cities in China, the FDI of South Korea to the provinces and cities in China, the GDP of South Korea, the population and education level of provinces and cities in China can significantly promote the export scale of Chinese provinces and cities to South Korea. The distance between Chinese provincial capitals and the South Korean capital significantly hinders Chinese exports to South Korea; Second, in terms of export trade efficiency, the trade exchange rate of the economically developed cities along the eastern coast of China and several provinces that are close to South Korea is higher than that of the cities in the central and western regions; Third, economic globalization makes trade more convenient, the average export trade efficiency of China's exports to South Korea showed an upward trend. However, under the influence of the 2008 global financial crisis, the export trade efficiency declined from 2008 to 2009, indicating that the impact of the financial crisis on the trade efficiency cannot be ignored. Originality/value - This paper finds out the influencing factors of China's export to South Korea, analyzes the export efficiency of different provinces and cities, excavates the export potential, and puts forward some suggestions for the balanced development of China and South Korea trade in the next step.