The Impact of Export Instability on Economic Growth: Evidence from Jordan

To provide empirical evidence on the impact of export instability on economic growth in developing countries, this study estimated the neoclassical production function using data of the Jordanian economy for the period 1995-2019. Real exports, real capital, and export instability were the independent variables in the production function. To determine the appropriate methodology for estimating the production function, the study conducted some preliminary tests, including the Augmented-Dickey Fuller (ADF), on the study data. The results of this test indicated that all study variables were stationary at first difference. Therefore, the Johanson cointegration test was applied to determine that there was cointegration between the study variables since the results of the former test indicated that there was one cointegration vector between these variables. The cointegration equation revealed a positive and statistically significant impact of real capital, real exports, and an indicator of export instability on economic growth. The most important policy implications for these results would be reducing the geographical concentration of exports through the expansion of free trade agreements (FTA) to enhance the positive impact of the instability of exports on economic growth. Moreover, the study recommends strengthening export-oriented actions to achieve higher levels of economic growth.