• 대한토목학회논문집
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• 제33권3호
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• pp.1007-1015
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• 2013

하중 발생과정에 따른 누적피해의 선형뿐만 아니라 비선형 거동을 해석할 수 있는 추계학적 확률모형이 수립되었다. 여러 종류의 피해강도함수를 도입하여 내용년수의 파괴확률과 비선형 누적피해의 거동이 자세히 해석되었다. 특히 본 연구에서는 저항한계를 임의의 분포함수를 갖는 확률변수로 취급하여 한계상태의 불확실성을 고려하였다. 또한 피복재에 대한 피해수준을 이용하여 처음으로 추계학적 확률모형을 경사제에 적용하였다. 실험 자료와의 비교를 통해 추정된 경사제 피복재에 대해 피해강도함수를 이용하여 내용년수에 따른 파괴확률과 비선형 누적피해의 거동을 해석하였다. 마지막으로 해석 결과를 이용하여 경사제 피복재의 보수 보강 시점과 최소한의 보수 보강규모를 정량적으로 산정할 수 있는 예방적 유지관리 방법을 제시하였다.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제4권3호
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• pp.299-324
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• 2013

The current research focuses on the seismic vulnerability assessment of typical Southern Europe buildings, based on processing of a large set of observational damage data. The presented study constitutes a sequel of a previous research. The damage statistics have been enriched and a wider damage database (178578 buildings) is created compared to the one of the first presented paper (73468 buildings) with Damage Probability Matrices (DPMs) after the elaboration of the results from post-earthquake surveys carried out in the area struck by the 7-9-1999 near field Athens earthquake. The dataset comprises buildings which developed damage in several degree, type and extent. Two different parameters are estimated for the description of the seismic demand. After the classification of damaged buildings into structural types they are further categorized according to the level of damage and macroseismic intensity. The relative and the cumulative frequencies of the different damage states, for each structural type and each intensity level, are computed and presented, in terms of damage ratio. Damage Probability Matrices (DPMs) are obtained for typical structural types and they are compared to existing matrices derived from regions with similar building stock and soil conditions. A procedure is presented for the classification of those buildings which initially could not be discriminated into structural types due to restricted information and hence they had been disregarded. New proportional DPMs are developed and a correlation analysis is fulfilled with the existing vulnerability relations.

• Geomechanics and Engineering
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• 제12권2호
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• pp.269-294
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• 2017

This study aimed to realize the creation of fuzzy stochastic damage to describe reliability more essentially with the analysis of harmony of damage conception, probability and fuzzy degree of membership in interval [0,1]. Two kinds of fuzzy behaviors of damage development were deduced. Fuzzy stochastic damage models were established based on the fuzzy memberships functional and equivalent normalization theory. Fuzzy stochastic damage finite element method was developed as the approach to reliability simulation. The three-dimensional fuzzy stochastic damage mechanical behaviors of Jianshan mine slope were analyzed and examined based on this approach. The comprehensive results, including the displacement, stress, damage and their stochastic characteristics, indicate consistently that the failure foci of Jianshan mine slope are the slope-cutting areas where, with the maximal failure probability 40%, the hazardous Domino effects will motivate the neighboring rock bodies' sliding activities.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제10권2호
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• pp.429-450
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• 2016

An attempt has been made to incorporate the concept of collapse safety margin into the procedures proposed in the performance-based earthquake engineering (PBEE) framework for direct earthquake loss estimation, in which the collapse probability curve obtained from incremental dynamic analysis (IDA) is mathematically characterized with the S-type fitting model. The regressive collapse probability curve is then used to identify non-collapse cases and collapse cases. With the assumed lognormal probability distribution for non-collapse damage indexes, the expected direct earthquake loss ratio is calculated from the weighted average over several damage states for non-collapse cases. Collapse safety margin is shown to be strongly related with sustained damage endurance of structures. Such endurance exhibits a strong link with expected direct earthquake loss. The results from the case study on three concrete frames indicate that increase in cross section cannot always achieve a more desirable output of collapse safety margin and less direct earthquake loss. It is a more effective way to acquire wider collapse safety margin and less direct earthquake loss through proper enhancement of reinforcement in structural components. Interestingly, total expected direct earthquake loss ratio seems to be insensitive a change in cross section. It has demonstrated a consistent correlation with collapse safety margin. The results also indicates that, if direct economic loss is seriously concerned, it is of much significance to reduce the probability of occurrence of moderate and even severe damage, as well as the probability of structural collapse.

• 한국전산구조공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국전산구조공학회 2003년도 봄 학술발표회 논문집
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• pp.357-365
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• 2003

The major problems with the conventional neural network, especially Back Propagation Neural Network, arise from the necessity of many training data for neural network learning and ambiguity in the relation of neural network structure to the convergence of solution. In this paper, the PNN is used as a pattern classifier to detect the damage of structure to avoid those drawbacks of the conventional neural network. In the PNN-based pattern classification problems, the probability density function for patterns is usually assumed by Gaussian distribution. But, in this paper, several probability density functions are investigated in order to select the most approriate one for structural damage assessment.

• Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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• 제39권6호
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• pp.795-812
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• 2011

Estimation of damage probability of buildings under a future earthquake is an essential issue to ensure the seismic reliability. Fragility curves are useful tools for showing the probability of structural damage due to earthquakes as a function of ground motion indices. The purpose of this study is to compare the damage probability of R/C buildings with low and high level of strength and ductility through fragility analysis. Two different types of sample buildings have been considered which represent the building types mentioned above. The first one was designed according to TEC-2007 and the latter was designed according to TEC-1975. The pushover curves of sample buildings were obtained via pushover analyses. Using 60 ground motion records, nonlinear time-history analyses of equivalent single degree of freedom systems were performed using bilinear hysteretic model and peak-oriented hysteretic model with stiffness - strength deterioration for each scaled elastic spectral displacement. The damage measure is maximum inter-story drift ratio and each performance level considered in this study has an assumed limit value of damage measure. Discrete damage probabilities were calculated using statistical methods for each considered performance level and elastic spectral displacement. Consequently, continuous fragility curves have been constructed based on the lognormal distribution assumption. Furthermore, the effect of hysteresis model parameters on the damage probability is investigated.

• Earthquakes and Structures
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• 제22권6호
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• pp.609-623
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• 2022

To study the empirical seismic fragility of a reinforced concrete girder bridge, based on the theory of numerical analysis and probability modelling, a regression fragility method of a rapid fragility prediction model (Gaussian first-order regression probability model) considering empirical seismic damage is proposed. A total of 1,069 reinforced concrete girder bridges of 22 highways were used to verify the model, and the vulnerability function, plane, surface and curve model of reinforced concrete girder bridges (simple supported girder bridges and continuous girder bridges) considering the number of samples in multiple intensity regions were established. The new empirical seismic damage probability matrix and curve models of observation frequency and damage exceeding probability are developed in multiple intensity regions. A comparative vulnerability analysis between simple supported girder bridges and continuous girder bridges is provided. Depending on the theory of the regional mean seismic damage index matrix model, the empirical seismic damage prediction probability matrix is embedded in the multidimensional mean seismic damage index matrix model, and the regional rapid prediction matrix and curve of reinforced concrete girder bridges, simple supported girder bridges and continuous girder bridges in multiple intensity regions based on mean seismic damage index parameters are developed. The established multidimensional group bridge vulnerability model can be used to quantify and predict the fragility of bridges in multiple intensity regions and the fragility assessment of regional group reinforced concrete girder bridges in the future.

• 대한조선학회논문집
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• 제48권1호
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• pp.33-41
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• 2011

For the assessment of ultimate longitudinal strengths of damaged hull girders, it is preliminarily necessary to determine the extents and locations of the damages due to severe accidents. This paper deals with the estimation of the damages from collisions and groundings of large-sized vessels where deterministic and probabilistic approaches are investigated. Deterministic damages estimated from MARPOL(or ICLL), ABS and DNV are compared with probabilistic damages from IMO guideline and some references including damage statistic data. Damages from MARPOL show largest one among all the investigated damage estimation, since it was developed not for the residual strength of hull girder but for the damage stability calculation. IMO guideline with high level probability of damage(eg. 95% probability level) also forecasts even severer damage extents than MARPOL. On the other hand, assuming average probability level of damage, the calculated damage sizes are around the one from deterministic approaches.

• 한국지반환경공학회 논문집
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• 제22권11호
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• pp.15-21
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• 2021

도심지 지하에 매설된 열수송관 등 지하매설관이 점차 노후화함에 따라 파손에 의한 인적, 경제적 피해가 증가하고 있다. 외부로 노출되지 않아 파손 등 문제점을 즉시 확인하기 어려운 열수송관의 특징을 고려할 때, 시설물 유지관리를 통해 주기적으로 수집하는 이력정보를 기반으로 시설물의 상태를 간접적으로 확인하는 방법이 현실적이다. 본 논문에서는 열수송관 이력정보를 검토하여 파손확률과 연관성을 가지는 평가인자를 도출하고, 이를 통해 파손확률을 추정하는 방법론을 제시하고자 한다. 파손확률 추정을 위한 영향인자는 유럽의 사례, 국내 열수송관 관리기준 등을 분석해 도출하였으며, 데이터의 확보 가능성도 함께 고려하여 선정하였다. 열수송관 설치기준이 변경된 1999년을 기준으로 매설시기에 따라 2가지 파손확률 추정 함수를 달리 제시하고 관경, 용도, 관리주체 등 평가인자별 정보에 따른 가중치를 부여하여 파손확률을 보정하여 파손확률추정의 신뢰성을 확보하였다.

• Smart Structures and Systems
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• 제20권2호
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• pp.207-217
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• 2017

Because of the inevitable uncertainties such as structural parameters, external excitations and measurement noises, the effects of uncertainties should be taken into consideration in structural damage detection. In this paper, two probabilistic structural damage detection approaches are proposed to account for the underlying uncertainties in structural parameters and external excitation. The first approach adopts the statistical moment-based structural damage detection (SMBDD) algorithm together with the sensitivity analysis of the damage vector to the uncertain parameters. The approach takes the advantage of the strength SMBDD, so it is robust to measurement noise. However, it requests the number of measured responses is not less than that of unknown structural parameters. To reduce the number of measurements requested by the SMBDD algorithm, another probabilistic structural damage detection approach is proposed. It is based on the integration of structural damage detection using temporal moments in each time segment of measured response time history with the sensitivity analysis of the damage vector to the uncertain parameters. In both approaches, probability distribution of damage vector is estimated from those of uncertain parameters based on stochastic finite element model updating and probabilistic propagation. By comparing the two probability distribution characteristics for the undamaged and damaged models, probability of damage existence and damage extent at structural element level can be detected. Some numerical examples are used to demonstrate the performances of the two proposed approaches, respectively.