• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cycle life prediction

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Development of maintenance cost estimation method considering bridge performance changes (교량 성능변화를 고려한 유지관리비용 추계분석 방법 개발)

  • Sun, Jong-Wan;Lee, Huseok;Park, Kyung-Hoon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.19 no.12
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    • pp.717-724
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    • 2018
  • To prepare for the explosive increase in maintenance costs of bridges according to the aging of infrastructure, future maintenance costs of bridges should be predicted. For this purpose, the management status of bridges was investigated and modeled as the upper limit of the performance level and the target management level according to the life cycle. This paper proposes methodologies and procedures for estimating the bridge maintenance costs using two models and existing cost and performance prediction models that consist of unit repair cost model according to the safety score, performance degradation model of bridges, unit reconstruction cost, and average reconstruction time. To verify the applicability, future maintenance costs can be forecasted for specific management agency considering the number of bridges, degree of aging, and current management status. As a result, it is possible to obtain the maintenance cost and safety level of an individual bridge level for each year. In addition, by summing them up to the agency level, the average safety score, ratio of the safety level, inspection costs, repair costs, and reconstruction costs can be obtained. In a further study, the changes in maintenance costs can be analyzed according to the changes in the target management levels using the developed method. The optimal management level can be suggested by reviewing the results.

Asset Evaluation Method for Road Pavement Considering Life Cycle Cost (생애주기비용을 고려한 도로포장의 자산가치 평가에 대한 연구)

  • Do, Myungsik;Kim, Jeunghwan
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.29 no.1D
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    • pp.63-72
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    • 2009
  • This study aims at establishing the decision-making support system for the highway assets, long-term performance presumption and evaluation of asset value, which are appropriate for Korea, and proposing the methods of the optimal engineering method and the timing decision for the preventive maintenance through the project evaluation, the optimization method and life-cycle analysis related to the highways. In order to supplement the current problem of the near-sighted budget management system, which chooses the maintenance place of the highway, depending on the level of the budget with fixed amount, the long-term required budget prediction system and the economy principle were introduced, so that the pavement agency can predict the level of the required budget, and it was aimed to develop the pavement asset evaluation system to maintain the performance of the highway with the minimum of the cost. In the use of the highway pavement asset evaluation system, to maintain the appropriate level of the pavement evaluation index, when the budget was efficiently established in the reference of the required maintenance budget for the chosen section of the highway in the year concerned, it was possible to analyze the most rational pavement maintenance budget. With this result, it is estimated to prevent the unnecessary waste of budget in advance, and through the development of the decision-making system for the long-term performance presumption and the asset value estimation of the pavement, it is expected to able to analyze the previous evaluation of the project related to the highway and the feasibility of introduction.

Feasibility of the Lapse Rate Prediction at an Hourly Time Interval (기온감률의 일중 경시변화 예측 가능성)

  • Kim, Soo-ock;Yun, Jin I.
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.18 no.1
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    • pp.55-63
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    • 2016
  • Temperature lapse rate within the planetary boundary layer shows a diurnal cycle with a substantial variation. The widely-used lapse rate value for the standard atmosphere may result in unaffordable errors if used in interpolating hourly temperature in complex terrain. We propose a simple method for estimating hourly lapse rate and evaluate whether this scheme is better than the conventional method using the standard lapse rate. A standard curve for lapse rate based on the diurnal course of temperature was drawn using upper air temperature for 1000hPa and 925hPa standard pressure levels. It was modulated by the hourly sky condition (amount of clouds). In order to test the reliability of this method, hourly lapse rates for the 500-600m layer over Daegwallyeong site were estimated by this method and compared with the measured values by an ultrasonic temperature profiler. Results showed the mean error $-0.0001^{\circ}C/m$ and the root mean square error $0.0024^{\circ}C/m$ for this vertical profile experiment. An additional experiment was carried out to test if this method is applicable for the mountain slope lapse rate. Hourly lapse rates for the 313-401m slope range in a complex watershed ('Hadong Watermark 2') were estimated by this method and compared with the observations. We found this method useful in describing diurnal cycle and variation of the mountain slope lapse rate over a complex terrain despite larger error compared with the vertical profile experiment.

Mechanical Properties And Chlorde Penetration Resistance of Shotcrete according to Mineral Admixture Types and Supplemental Ratio (광물성 혼화재료의 종류 및 혼입율에 따른 숏크리트의 역학적 특성 및 염해 저항성)

  • Han, Seung-Yeon;Yun, Kyong-Ku;Nam, Kyeong-Gung;Lee, Kyeo-Re;Eum, Young-Do
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.16 no.7
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    • pp.4960-4968
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    • 2015
  • In this study to improve the chloride durability of the shotcrete structure depending on types and contents of mineral admixture chloride resistance was evaluated by NT BUILD 492 of european test standards. It was also evaluated with the mechanical properties such as static strength and chloride penetration resistance. For shotcrete mixed crushed stone aggregate of the maximum size 10mm of coarse aggregates was produced. Based on 28days compression strength the variable mixed with 15% silica fume showed the highest strength in 67.55MPa. As the content of fly ash and blast furnace slag increased, the strength lowered. In the chloride penetration resistance test, OPC showed "high grade" and In the case of admixture, the penetration resistance tended to increase in all variables except the fly ash. In order to evaluate the service life, the accelerated chloride penetration test was conducted by the standards of KCL, ACI, FIB. Test results were obtained with the lowest spreading factor in a variable mixed with silica fume of 15%. At the KCI standards, It was found to have a service life of about 65 years and at the FIB standards, It was found to have a service life of 131 years. Among standards, the service life of KCI standard in all of the variables was evaluated as the lowest.

A Probabilistic Prediction of Weapon Systems Evaluation Test Execution Ratio and Management Scheme (무기체계 평가시험 수행율의 확률적 예측 및 관리기법)

  • Jang, Young-sik;Han, Sung-hee;Han, Hyun-goo;Mun, Chang-min
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.21 no.2
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    • pp.468-474
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    • 2017
  • A test service for the weapon systems evaluation is one of the most important processes during the weapon systems acquisition or development life cycle. Before completion of weapon systems development, the appropriate evaluation test can reduce risk and expense which might be expected during weapon systems development procedure. In this paper, it is suggested that a probabilistic prediction method based on Monte Carlo simulation for how much the annual weapon systems evaluation test excution ratio can be reached compared to the yearly initial planned test quantity. And then a weapon systems evaluation test quantitative management scheme is suggested to assist decision making for the test schedule manager who can arrange monthly test schedule based on the prediction result of annual test excution ratio. And the proposed method is applied for the weapon systems evaluation firing test data of the 8th directorate, Agency for Defense Development(ADD). And also the application result is examined.

Non-Enzymatic Browning Reaction of the Dried File-Fish (건조(乾燥) 말쥐치의 비효소적(非酵素的) 갈변(褐變))

  • Chun, Soon-Sil;Kim, Mu-Nam;Lee, Kang-Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Food Science and Nutrition
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    • v.11 no.3
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    • pp.21-27
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    • 1982
  • A kinetical approach for the non-enzymatic browning reaction of the dried file-fish was studied. The reaction rates revealed a tend to increase with increasing water activity and showed the maximum at $0.75\;a_w$ The activation energies obtained from the Arrhenius plot ranged 12.5 to 16.5 Kcal/mole. From these energies of activation, the $Q_{10}$ values at $45^{\circ}C$ showed 1.9 to 2.3 and both activation energy and $Q_{10}$ values were reduced with increase in $a_w$ Shelf-lives, the time to reach an 0.15 O.D./g solid at which severe brown color change could be de ectable, decreased rapidly as the temperature and water activity increase. A storage study under a square-wave fluctuating temperature condition (at 35 and $55^{\circ}C$ periodically with 7 days interval), the rate constants at all water activities used in the experiments were higher than those at $45^{\circ}C$, the mean temperature of the cycle which affects other kinetic parameters including activation energies, $Q_{10}$ values and finally the shelf-lives. The data obtained from the fluctuating temperaure storage study will be used in prediction of shelf-life. The shelf lives assessed at $25^{\circ}C$ from the accelerated shelf-life tests ranged from 179 daysat $0.75\;a_w$ to 302 days at $0.44\;a_w$.

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Evaluation of the environmental load and the amount of $CO_2$ emissions on Design for railway Alignment (철도선형설계의 환경부하량 및 이산화탄소 발생량 평가)

  • Kwon, Suk-Hyun;Lim, Kwang-Soo;Kim, Min-Ji
    • Proceedings of the KSR Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.476-482
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    • 2011
  • Following public expectations from the emergence of an international agreement with greater legal force after the expiration of the 2012 Kyoto Protocol, Korea is also making efforts to effectively and systematically initiate the mitigation policy and enforce the terms of the international climate change agreement. The majority of domestic industries are candidates for greenhouse gas emission regulation, thereby requiring the proposal of a method that effectively reduces environmental contaminate substances released from railway facilities, following the prediction of an increase in railway usage as an environment-friendly transportation method in the future. Accordingly, this study has quantitatively calculated the amount of released environmental contaminates through the life cycle assessment (LCA) on railway facility constructions, and has evaluated the environmental load and the amount of greenhouse gas emissions through the resulting values. The results of the LCA analysis showed that the amount of environmental load was the highest at the early stages of material implementation and construction, and that the value of global warming was viewed as the highest among the effects. As officially announced by the World Meteorological Organization and the United Nations Environment Program that $CO_2$ is the main culprit of global warming, the analytical values confirmed that the amount of $CO_2$ emissions accounted for more than half of the released greenhouse gases at 2.90E+04tons. The environmental load and $CO_2$ emission rates analyzed in this study are judged to be used in the deduction of the optimum environment-friendly method and quantitative environmental effect of railway facility constructions in the future, as the values can be evaluated based on their degree of environment friendliness.

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A Modification in the Analysis of the Growth Rate of Short Fatigue Cracks in S45C Carbon Steel under Reversed Loading (반복하중조건 하에서의 S45C 탄소강에 대한 미소피로균열 성장속도 해석의 수정)

  • McEvily,A.J.
    • Journal of Welding and Joining
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.96-105
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    • 1995
  • A modified method for the analysis of short fatigue crack growth has been presented, and calculations based upon the modified method are compared with experimental results for S45C carbon steel. It is also shown that the modified method is in good agreement with experimental data. The proposed equation for the fatigue crack growth rates includes a material constant which relates the threshold level to the endurance limit, a correction for elastic-plastic behaviour and a means for dealing with the effects of crack closure. In this study one of the modifications is to substitute the Forman' s elastic expression of the stress intensity factor range into the geometrical factor The other is a consideration of the bending effect which is developed from the moment caused by the eccentric cross sectional geometry as the crack grows. Thus, this method is useful for residual life prediction of the mechanical structures as well as the welding structures.

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A Comparison of Calibration Methods for the COCOMO II Post-Architecture Model (COCOMOII의 후구조 모델에 대한 캘리브레이션 방법 비교)

  • Yoon, Myoung-Young
    • Proceedings of the Korea Society for Industrial Systems Conference
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    • 2000.05a
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    • pp.135-143
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    • 2000
  • The COCOMO Ⅱ model is well-suited for the new software development life cycle such as non-sequential and rapid-development processes. The traditional regression approach based on the least square criterion is the most commonly used technique for empirical calibration in the COCOMO Ⅱ model. But it has a few assumptions frequently violated by software engineering data sets. It is true that the source data is also generally imprecise in reporting size, effort, and cost-driver ratings, particularly across different organizations. And that the outlier for the source data is a peculiarity and indicates a data pint To cope with difficulties, in this paper, we propose a new regression method for calibrating COCOMO Ⅱ post-architecture model based on the minimum relative erro(MRE) criterion. The characteristic of the proposed method is insensitive to the extreme values of the data in the empirical calibration. As the experimental results, It is evident that our proposed calibration method MRE was shown to be superior to the traditional regression approach for model calibration, as illustrated by the values obtained for standard deviation(^σ), and prediction at level L PRED(L) measures.

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A Sequential Pattern Analysis for Dynamic Discovery of Customers' Preference (고객의 동적 선호 탐색을 위한 순차패턴 분석: (주)더페이스샵 사례)

  • Song, Ki-Ryong;Noh, Soeng-Ho;Lee, Jae-Kwang;Choi, Il-Young;Kim, Jae-Kyeong
    • Information Systems Review
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.195-209
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    • 2008
  • Customers' needs change every moment. Profitability of stores can't be increased anymore with an existing standardized chain store management. Accordingly, a personalized store management tool needs through prediction of customers' preference. In this study, we propose a recommending procedure using dynamic customers' preference by analyzing the transaction database. We utilize self-organizing map algorithm and association rule mining which are applied to cluster the chain stores and explore purchase sequence of customers. We demonstrate that the proposed methodology makes an effect on recommendation of products in the market which is characterized by a fast fashion and a short product life cycle.