• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제14권2호
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• pp.129-136
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• 2014

Reliability test is focusing to detect the unexpected reliability failure and solve them for the high quality of products. The test data should be used to assess and project the current level of interesting product reliability and so it is very important to have the accurately assessing methodology with test data. There are two type of trend for test data as constant and changing one during testing and this paper shows the difference in the assessing results of these two cases. There is less information how to define the existence of reliability growth rate changing and calculate the parameters of the reliability growth models to make an accurate assessment with such condition, so i established the process and mathematical model to calculate the parameters at such condition to make reliability growth curve with high Goodness of Fit. I validated the new method with the data made from Monte Carlo Simulation and case from Demko (1993). Even the assessed result with the new methodology may be different with the case by case because of very diversity in test condition and testing product quality, but the process and method founded in this research can be applied to any case using Duane and AMSAA model for their test data assessment. I also present the evaluation method to see the effectiveness with new one which is a conventional knowledge and not popular to use, so it is possible to compare the results with the newly presented and conventional method for better business decision.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권17호
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• pp.7991-7995
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• 2015

Background: To identify the epidemiological characteristics of colorectal cancer mortality in China during the period of 1991-2011, and forecast the future five-year trend. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for colorectal cancer in China from 1991 to 2011 was used to describe epidemiological characteristics in terms of age group, gender, and rural/urban residence. Trend surface analysis was performed to analyze the geographical distribution of colorectal cancer. Four models including curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling and joinpoint regression were applied to forecast the trends for the future five years. Results: Since 1991 the colorectal cancer mortality rate increased yearly, and our results showed that the trend would continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate in males was higher than that of females and the rate in urban areas was higher than in rural areas. The mortality rate was relatively low for individuals less than 60 years of age, but increased dramatically afterwards. People living in the northeastern China provinces or in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for colorectal cancer than those living in middle or western China provinces. Conclusions: The steadily increasing mortality of colorectal cancer in China will become a substantial public health burden in the foreseeable future. For this increasing trend to be controlled, further efforts should concentrate on educating the general public to increase prevention and early detection by screening. More effective prevention and management strategies are needed in higher mortality areas (Eastern parts of China) and high-risk populations (60+ years old).

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권15호
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• pp.6729-6734
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• 2015

Background: To analyze the mortality distribution of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013, to predict the mortality in the ensuing five years, and to provide evidence for prevention and treatment of nasopharyngeal carcinoma. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe its epidemiological characteristics, such as the change of the standardized mortality rate, sex and age differences, urban-rural differences. Trend-surface analysis was used to study the geographical distribution of the mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were used to predict the mortality for the ensuing five years in the future. Results: In China, the standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma increased with time from 1996, reaching the peak values of $1.45/10^5$ at the year of 2002, and decreased gradually afterwards. With males being 1.51 times higher than females, and the city had a higher rate than the rural during the past two decades. The mortality rate increased from age 40. Geographical analysis showed the mortality rate increased from middle to southern China. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma is falling. The regional disease control for Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma should be focused on Guangdong province of China, and the key targets for prevention and treatment are rural men, especially after the age of 40. The mortality of Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma will decrease in the next five years.

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권15호
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• pp.6391-6396
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• 2015

Background: To analyze cervical cancer mortality trends in China from 1991-2013 and forecast the mortality distribution in future five years (2014-2018), and provide clues for prevention and treatment. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for cervical cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics and distribution, including the trend of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences, and age variation. Trend-surface analysis was used to analyze the geographical distribution of mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were performed to predict and forecast mortality trends. Results: In recent years, the mortality rate of cervical cancer has increased, and there is also a steady increase in the incidence from 2003 to 2013 in China. Mortality rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas. The mortality dramatically increases in the 40+ yr age group, reaching a peak in the >85 yr age group. In addition, geographical analysis showed that the cervical cancer mortality increased from the southwest to west-central and from the southeast to northeast of the country. Conclusions: The incidence rate and the mortality rate are increasing from 1991 to 2013, and the predictions show this will continue in the future. Thus, implementation of prevention and management programs for cervical cancer are necessary in China, especially for rural areas, young women in urban areas, and high risk regions (the west-central).

• Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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• 제16권14호
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• pp.5829-5834
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• 2015

Objective: To describe and analyze the epidemiological characteristics of lung cancer mortality in China from 1991 to 2013, forecast the future five-year trend and provide scientific evidence for prevention and management of lung cancer. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for lung cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe epidemiological characteristics. Trend surface analysis was applied to analyze the geographical distribution of lung cancer. Four models, curve estimation, time series modeling, gray modeling (GM) and joinpoint regression, were performed to forecast the trend for the future. Results: Since 1991 the mortality rate of lung cancer increased yearly. The rate for males was higher than that for females and rates in urban areas were higher than in rural areas. In addition, our results showed that the trend will continue to increase in the ensuing 5 years. The mortality rate increased from age 45-50 and peaked in the group of 85 years old. Geographical analysis indicated that people living in northeast China provinces and the coastal provinces in eastern China had a higher mortality rate for lung cancer than those living in the centre or western Chinese provinces. Conclusions: The standardized mortality rate of lung cancer has constantly increased from 1991 to 2013, and been predicted to continue in the ensuing 5 years. Further efforts should be concentrated on education of the general public to increase prevention and early detection. Much better prevention and management is needed in high mortality areas (northeastern and eastern parts of China) and high risk populations (45-50-year-olds).

• 한국물환경학회지
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• 제31권5호
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• pp.482-490
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• 2015

In this study, considering the factors that affects sediment trapping efficiency of Vegetative Filter Strips (VFS), the scenarios were designed to develop a regression equation to estimate sediment trapping efficiency of VFS for agricultural fields in South-Korea. For this, general conditions of agricultural fields in South-Korea were investigated. Then, based on these results, total 53,460 scenarios were set and simulated by Vegetative Filter Strip MODel (VFSMOD-w). Two variables were determined from the results of 53,460 scenarios. These two variables were applied to CurveExpert for development of a equation, which can estimate sediment trapping efficiency of VFS. The equation developed in this study can be used in SWAT model for estimation of sediment reduction efficiency of VFS to upland field in Korea. Moreover, it is expected that VFS will be effectively applied to agricultural fields in South-Korea.

• 농업과학연구
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• 제32권1호
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• pp.81-94
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• 2005

This study is aimed at giving the basic information for individual farm households to make decisions for optimizing their farm sizes and for the government to implement farm size optimization policies through the identification of combinations among rice production factors in plain areas like Cheolwon district and the suggestion of the optimal farm sizes of individual farmers based on the scale of economy calculated. The data of agricultural production costs of 50 rice farmers in the plain area which is located in Dongsong-eup Cholwon district, Kangwon province were used in the analysis. The 'translog' cost function among various methods which is a flexible function type was adopted to calculate the scale of economy in rice production. Seemingly unrelated regression(SUR) method was used in forecasting functions and processing other statistics by SHAZAM which is one of the computer aid program for quantitative econometric analysis. In conclusion, the long-run average cost(LAC) curve showed 'U-shape' which was different from 'L-type' one which was shown in the previous studies by others. The lowest point of the LAC was 9.764ha and the concerned production cost amounted to 633 Won/kg. Based on these results, it have to be suggested that around 10 ha of paddy is the target size for policy assistances to save costs under the present level of farming practices and technology. The above results show that the rice production costs could be saved up to 10ha in Cheolwon plain area which is a typical paddy field. However, land use, land condition, land ownership and manager's ability which may affect scale of economy should be considered. Furthermore, reasonable management will have to be realized by means of labor saving technology and cost saving management skill like enlargement of farm size of rice.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
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• 제15권2호
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• pp.90-100
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• 2015

Reliability growth rate (or reliability growth curve slope) have the two cases of trend as a constant or changing one during the reliability growth testing. The changing case is very common situation. The reasons of reliability growth rate changing are that the failures to follow the NHPP (None-Homogeneous Poisson Process), and the solutions implemented during test to break out other problems or not to take out all of the root cause permanently. If the changing were big, the "Goodness of Fit (GOF)" of reliability growth curve to test data would be very low and then reduce the accuracy of assessing result with test data. In this research, we are using Duane model and AMSAA model for assessing test data and projecting the reliability level of complex and repairable system as like construction equipment and vehicle. In case of no changing in reliability growth rate, it is reasonable for reliability engineer to implement the original Duane model (1964) and Crow-AMSAA model (1975) for the assessment and projection activity. However, in case of reliability growth rate changing, it is necessary to find the method to increase the "GOF" of reliability growth curves to test data. To increase GOF of reliability growth curves, it is necessary to find the proper parameter calculation method of interesting reliability growth models that are applicable to the situation of reliability growth rate changing. Since the Duane and AMSAA models have a characteristic to get more strong influence from the initial test (or failure) data than the latest one, the both models have a limitation to contain the latest test data information that is more important and better to assess test data in view of accuracy, especially when the reliability growth rate changing. The main objective of this research is to find the parameter calculation method to reflect the latest test data in the case of reliability growth rate changing. According to my experience in vehicle and construction equipment developments over 18 years, over the 90% in the total development cases are with such changing during the developing test. The objective of this research was to develop the newly assessing method and the process for GOF level increasing in case of reliability growth rate changing that would contribute to achieve more accurate assessing and projecting result. We also developed the new evaluation method for GOF that are applicable to the both models as Duane and AMSAA, so it is possible to compare it between models and check the effectiveness of new parameter calculation methods in any interesting situation. These research results can reduce the decision error for development process and business control with the accurately assessing and projecting result.

• 지구물리와물리탐사
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• 제7권2호
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• pp.109-116
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• 2004

석유/천연가스 저류층 특성화는 사용 가능한 현장자료를 이용하여 여러 저류층 물성의 공간적 특성을 정량적으로 추정하는 과정이다. 저류층 물성 중 특히 공극률과 유체투과율은 저류층 내의 유체 함유 공간의 크기와 유체 유동 능력을 나타내며, 저류층 평가와 운영에 있어 가장 중요한 특성변수이다. 불균질 저류층에 있어 코어가 채취되지 않은 구간이나 시추공에서 일반적인 물리검층 자료로부터 기존의 통계적 방법을 통해 공극률과 유체투과율을 추정하는 것은 매우 어렵고 복잡한 작업이므로, 이 연구에서는 물리검출 자료를 이용한 저류층 물성결정 방법으로 퍼지이론과 신경망을 이용한 지능형 기법을 제시하였다. 퍼지이론을 기초로 한 퍼지 곡선법으로 코어 공극률, 유체투과율 자료와 상관성이 높은 물리검층 자료를 선택하고, 선택된 물리검층 자료와 코어분석 자료를 이용한 신경망 학습을 통해 저류층의 공극률과 유체투과율을 추정하고자 하였다. 이 연구에서 제시한 지능형 저류층 특성화 기법을 이용하여 국내대륙붕 시추공의 유정자료를 분석하여 기존 방법 보다 정확하고 신뢰성 있는 해석 결과를 얻을 수 있었다. 이러한 지능형 저류층 특성화 해석기법은 국내외 석유/천연가스 개발사업에 있어 보다 신뢰성 있는 물리검층 자료를 이용한 저류층 특성화 도구로 활용할 수 있을 것이다.

• 한국조경학회지
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• 제39권1호
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• pp.11-21
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• 2011

본 연구는 난지도 쓰레기 매립지였던 월드컵공원내 하늘공원과 노을공원에 서식하는 나비 출현종 및 흡밀식물 현황, 흡밀식물과 나비와의 상호관계를 구명하여 나비 서식지 조성시 식재종 선정을 위한 기초자료를 제공하고자 하였다. 나비는 총 5과 23종 1,129개체가 출현하였으며,나비의 주요 행동은 흡밀 행동이 전체의 36%로 연구대상지가 나비에게 흡밀공간으로서 중요한 역할을 하고 있었다. 월드컵공원에서 나비와 흡밀식물과의 관계를 분석한 결과, 나비와 흡밀식물의 꽃색은 상관관계를 보이지 않아 나비를 유인하기 위한 식재시 특별하게 꽃색을 고려할 필요는 없는 것으로 분석되었다. 또한 나비가 선호하는 흡밀식물은 대부분 귀화식물로 나비 서식지를 조성함에 있어 흡밀하는 식물로 자생종이나 귀화종을 구분하여 나비를 유인하는 것은 큰 의미가 없음을 알 수 있었다. 자생식물을 활용할 필요가 있는 지역의 경우에는 낭아초, 싸리, 벌개미취와 같은 종이 나비 유입을 위해 유리한 것으로 판단되었다. 흡밀나비 개체수와 흡밀식물 종 수는 양의 상관관계를 보였으며, 곡선추정 회귀분석 대수모형 곡선에서 일반종과 특이종으로 구분한 결과, 노랑나비, 배추흰나비, 줄점팔랑나비는 일반종으로 구분되었고, 범부전나비, 큰줄흰나비, 남방부전나비, 푸른부전나비는 특이종으로 구분되었다. 특이종 중 범부전나비는 낮은 산이나 숲을 선호하는 종으로, 초지를 선호하는 3종(큰줄흰나비, 남방부전나비, 푸른부전나비)과 서식지 차이가 있어 초본식생지에서 목본식생지로 천이가 진행되고 있는 쓰레기 매립지의 식생현황에서 보전가치가 더 높다고 판단되었다. 이러한 결과는 나비서식지 조성시 목표종을 선정할 때, 식물과의 상호관계를 고려하여 상대적으로 특이성이 높은 종을 고려할 수 있음을 보여주었다. 이러한 특이종은 경우에 따라 대상지내의 목표종으로서의 가치를 가질 수 있을 것이다.