Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention

Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention (아시아태평양암예방학회)
권호 표지
DOI QR코드

DOI QR Code

Cervical Cancer Mortality Trends in China, 1991-2013, and Predictions for the Future

  • Du, Pei-Ling (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) ;
  • Wu, Ku-Sheng (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) ;
  • Fang, Jia-Ying (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) ;
  • Zeng, Yang (Shantou University Medical College) ;
  • Xu, Zhen-Xi (Shantou University Medical College) ;
  • Tang, Wen-Rui (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College) ;
  • Xu, Xiao-Ling (Shantou University Medical College) ;
  • Lin, Kun (Department of Preventive Medicine, Shantou University Medical College)
  • Published : 2015.10.06
Download PDF
⟨ Previous Next ⟩

Abstract

Background: To analyze cervical cancer mortality trends in China from 1991-2013 and forecast the mortality distribution in future five years (2014-2018), and provide clues for prevention and treatment. Materials and Methods: Mortality data for cervical cancer in China from 1991 to 2013 were used to describe the epidemiological characteristics and distribution, including the trend of the standardized mortality rate, urban-rural differences, and age variation. Trend-surface analysis was used to analyze the geographical distribution of mortality. Curve estimation, time series, gray modeling, and joinpoint regression were performed to predict and forecast mortality trends. Results: In recent years, the mortality rate of cervical cancer has increased, and there is also a steady increase in the incidence from 2003 to 2013 in China. Mortality rates in rural areas are higher than in urban areas. The mortality dramatically increases in the 40+ yr age group, reaching a peak in the >85 yr age group. In addition, geographical analysis showed that the cervical cancer mortality increased from the southwest to west-central and from the southeast to northeast of the country. Conclusions: The incidence rate and the mortality rate are increasing from 1991 to 2013, and the predictions show this will continue in the future. Thus, implementation of prevention and management programs for cervical cancer are necessary in China, especially for rural areas, young women in urban areas, and high risk regions (the west-central).

Keywords

References

  1. Boyle P, Levin B (2008). World cancer report 2008. International Agency for Research on Cancer press.
  2. China health statistics yearbook (2006). Beijing: China union medical university press.
  3. China health statistics yearbook (2007). Beijing: China union medical university press.
  4. China health statistics yearbook (2008). Beijing: China union medical university press.
  5. China health statistics yearbook (2009). Beijing: China union medical university press.
  6. China health statistics yearbook (2011). Beijing: China union medical university press.
  7. China health statistics yearbook (2012). Beijing: China union medical university press.
  8. China statistical yearbook of health and family planning (2013). Beijing: China union medical university press.
  9. China statistical yearbook of health and family planning (2014). Beijing: China union medical university press.
  10. Chen W, Zheng R, Zeng H, et al (2015). Annual report on status of cancer in China, 2011. Chin J Cancer Res, 27, 2-12.
  11. Chen Z (2008). The third national mortality retrospective sampling survey report. Beijing, China union medical university press.
  12. Ferlay J, Shin HR, Bray F, et al (2010). Estimates of worldwide burden of cancer in 2008: GLOBOCAN 2008. Int J Cancer, 127, 2893-917. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.25516
  13. Gonzaga CMR, Freitas-Junior R, Barbaresco AA, et al (2013). Cervical cancer mortality trends in Brazil: 1980-2009. Cad Saude Publica, 29, 599-608. https://doi.org/10.1590/S0102-311X2013000300017
  14. Goovaerts P (2013). Analysis of geographical disparities in temporal trends of health outcomes using space-time joinpoint regression. Int J Appl Earth Obs Geoinf, 22, 75-85. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jag.2012.03.002
  15. Hao J, Zhao P, Chen W (2011). Chinese cancer registry annual report 2011: cancer incidence and mortality in Chinese cancer registration areas in 2008. Beijing, Military Medical Science Press.
  16. Hao J, Chen W (2012). Chinese cancer registry annual report 2012: cancer incidence and mortality in Chinese cancer registration areas in 2009. Beijing, Military Medical Science Press.
  17. Jia Y, Li S, Yang R, et al (2013). Knowledge about cervical cancer and barriers of screening program among women in Wufeng County, a high-incidence region of cervical cancer in China. PLoS One, 8, 67005. https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pone.0067005
  18. Jing Li, Le-Ni Kang, Qiao1 Y-L (2011). Review of the cervical cancer disease burden in Mainland. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 11, 1149-53.
  19. Luo S, Ma J, Chen J (2008). Malignant tumor mortality trend surface analysis of regional distribution. Chinese J Hlth Stat, 25, 357-9.
  20. Shi JF, Canfell K, Lew JB, et al (2012). The burden of cervical cancer in China: synthesis of the evidence. Int J Cancer, 130, 641-52. https://doi.org/10.1002/ijc.26042
  21. Shi XJ, Au WW, Wu KS, et al (2014). Mortality characteristics and prediction of female breast cancer in China from 1991 to 2011. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 15, 2785-91. https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2014.15.6.2785
  22. Tang W-R, Fang J-Y, Wu K-S (2014). Epidemiological characteristics and prediction of esophageal cancer mortality in china from 1991 to 2012. Asian Pac J Cancer Prev, 15, 6929-34. https://doi.org/10.7314/APJCP.2014.15.16.6929
  23. Torre LA, Bray F, Siegel RL, et al (2015). Global cancer statistics, 2012. CA Cancer J Clin, 65, 87-108. https://doi.org/10.3322/caac.21262
  24. Yang L HX, Zhang sw (2003). Changes of mortality rate for cervical cancer during 1970s and 1990s periods in China. Acta Acad Med Sin, 25, 386-90.
  25. Zhao P, Chen W (2008). Chinese cancer registry annual report 2004, Beijing, Peking Union Medical College Publication House.
  26. Zhao P, Chen W (2009). Chinese cancer registry annual report 2008: cancer incidence and mortality in Chinese cancer registration areas in 2005. Beijing, Military Medical Science Press.
  27. Zhao P, Chen W (2010). Chinese cancer registry annual report 2009: cancer incidence and mortality in Chinese cancer registration areas in 2006. Beijing, Military Medical Science Press.
  28. Zhao P, Chen W (2010). Chinese cancer registry annual report 2010: cancer incidence and mortality in Chinese cancer registration areas in 2007. Beijing, Military Medical Science Press.
  29. Zheng T, Chen J (2001). Trend Surface Analysis, the Study of Changle Malignant Tumor onset of Geographical Features. J Math Med, 14, 86-7.
  30. Zheng YL, Zhang LP, Zhang XL, et al (2015). Forecast model analysis for the morbidity of tuberculosis in xinjiang, china. PLoS One, 10, 116832.

Cited by

  1. Screening and identification of a specific peptide binding to cervical cancer cells from a phage-displayed peptide library vol.39, pp.10, 2017, https://doi.org/10.1007/s10529-017-2381-7
  2. Awareness of and willingness to be vaccinated by human papillomavirus vaccine among junior middle school students in Jinan, China pp.2164-554X, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1080/21645515.2017.1393132
  3. Crk-like adapter protein is overexpressed in cervical carcinoma, facilitates proliferation, invasion and chemoresistance, and regulates Src and Akt signaling vol.12, pp.5, 2016, https://doi.org/10.3892/ol.2016.5160
  4. Upregulation of microRNA-129-5p inhibits cell invasion, migration and tumor angiogenesis by inhibiting ZIC2 via downregulation of the Hedgehog signaling pathway in cervical cancer pp.1555-8576, 2018, https://doi.org/10.1080/15384047.2018.1491497
  5. Suppression of long noncoding RNA NCK1-AS1 increases chemosensitivity to cisplatin in cervical cancer vol.234, pp.4, 2019, https://doi.org/10.1002/jcp.27198