• KDI Journal of Economic Policy
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• v.31 no.1
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• pp.169-206
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• 2009

This study stems from a question, "How should we understand the pattern of the Korean economy after the 1990s?" Among various analytic methods applicable, this study chooses a Structural Vector Autoregression (SVAR) with long-run restrictions, identifies diverse impacts that gave rise to the current status of the Korean economy, and differentiates relative contributions of those impacts. To that end, SVAR is applied to four economic models; Blanchard and Quah (1989)'s 2-variable model, its 3-variable extensions, and the two other New Keynesian type linear models modified from Stock and Watson (2002). Especially, the latter two models are devised to reflect the recent transitions in the determination of foreign exchange rate (from a fixed rate regime to a flexible rate one) as well as the monetary policy rule (from aggregate targeting to inflation targeting). When organizing the assumed results in the form of impulse response and forecasting error variance decomposition, two common denominators are found as follows. First, changes in the rate of economic growth are mainly attributable to the impact on productivity, and such trend has grown strong since the 2000s, which indicates that Korea's economic growth since the 2000s has been closely associated with its potential growth rate. Second, the magnitude or consistency of impact responses tends to have subsided since the 2000s. Given Korea's high dependence on trade, it is possible that low interest rates, low inflation, steady growth, and the economic emergence of China as a world player have helped secure capital and demand for export and import, which therefore might reduced the impact of each sector on overall economic status. Despite the fact that a diverse mixture of models and impacts has been used for analysis, always two common findings are observed in the result. Therefore, it can be concluded that the decreased rate of economic growth of Korea since 2000 appears to be on the same track as the decrease in Korea's potential growth rate. The contents of this paper are constructed as follows: The second section observes the recent trend of the economic development of Korea and related Korean articles, which might help in clearly defining the scope and analytic methodology of this study. The third section provides an analysis model to be used in this study, which is Structural VAR as mentioned above. Variables used, estimation equations, and identification conditions of impacts are explained. The fourth section reports estimation results derived by the previously introduced model, and the fifth section concludes.

• Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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• v.18 no.1
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• pp.42-54
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• 2016

It is highly anticipated that warming temperature resulting from global climate change will affect the phenological pattern of kiwifruit, which has been commercially grown in Korea since the early 1980s. Here, we present the potential impacts of climate change on the variations of flowering day of a gold kiwifruit cultivar, Haegeum, in the Jeonnam Province, Korea. By running six global climate models (GCM), the results from this study emphasize the uncertainty in climate change scenarios. To predict the flowering day of kiwifruit, we obtained three parameters of the 'Chill-day' model for the simulation of Haegeum: $6.3^{\circ}C$ for the base temperature (Tb), 102.5 for chill requirement (Rc), and 575 for heat requirement (Rh). Two separate validations of the resulting 'Chill-day' model were conducted. First, direct comparisons were made between the observed flowering days collected from 25 kiwifruit orchards for two years (2014-15) and the simulated flowering days from the 'Chill-day' model using weather data from four weather stations near the 25 orchards. The estimation error between the observed and simulated flowering days was 5.2 days. Second, the model was simulated using temperature data extracted, for the 25 orchards, from a high-resolution digital temperature map, resulting in the error of 3.4 days. Using the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 climate change scenarios from six GCMs for the period of 2021-40, the future flowering days were simulated with the 'Chill-day' model. The predicted flowering days of Haegeum in Jeonnam were advanced more than 10 days compared to the present ones from multi-model ensemble, while some individual models resulted in quite different magnitudes of impacts, indicating the multi-model ensemble accounts for uncertainty better than individual climate models. In addition, the current flowering period of Haegeum in Jeonnam Province was predicted to expand northward, reaching over Jeonbuk and Chungnam Provinces. This preliminary result will provide a basis for the local impact assessment of climate change as more phenology models are developed for other fruit trees.

• Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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• v.10 no.4
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• pp.654-686
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• 2007

To estimate and analyze an interested science and technology level in any case requires three basic informations: (1) relative positions of our technology level, (2) other relevant technology level of the world best country holding the state of the art technology, and (3) its theoretical or practical maximum level within a certain period of time. Further, additional information from analyzing its respective rate of technology changes is necessary. It seems that most previous empirical or case studies on technology level have not considered third and fourth informations seriously, and thus critically have missed important findings from a dynamic point of view on the matter. A dynamic approach considering types of development processes and paths as well as current position needs an application of a concept of technology development stages and respective growth curves. This paper proposes a new method of approach and application by implementing relatively simple types of the growth curve(S-curve) such as logistic and Comports curves and applying estimation results of these curves to ten core technologies of the growth engines for the next future generation in Korea. The study implies that Korean science and technology level in general clearly gets higher as it approaches to a recent time of period, but relative technology gap from the world best in terms of catching-up period does not get better or narrower in case of at least part of the concerned technologies such as bio new drugs and human organs, and intelligence robots. The possibility does exist that some of our concerned technologies shooting for the next future generation may not come to the world highest level in the near future. The purpose of this study is to propose possibilities of catching-up, if any, by estimating its relevant type of growth pattern by way of measuring and analyzing technology level and by analyzing the technology development process through a position analysis. At this stage this study tries to introduce a new theoretical approach of estimating technology level and its application to existing case study results(data) from Korea Institute of Science and Technology Planning and Evaluation(KISTEP) and Korea Institute of Industrial Technology Evaluation and Planing(ITEP), for years of 2004 and 2006 respectively. The study has some limitations in terms of accuracy of measuring(estimating) a relevant growth curve to a particular technology, feasibility of applying estimated results, accessing and analyzing panel experts opinions. Hence, it is recommended that further study would follow soon enough to verify practical applicability and possible expansion of the study results.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.31 no.5
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• pp.695-706
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• 1998

SST (Sea Surface. Temperature) fronts which were found in the South-West Sea of Korea and the northern area of the East China Sea were examined in order to clarify their positions, shapes, seasonal changes and the formation mechanism, For this study used SST data rearranged from the SST IR image during 1991 to 1996 and oceanographical data obtained by National Fisheries Research and Development Institute. Temperature front in the Cheju Strait was analyzed by the data obtained from a fisheries guidance ship of Cheju Provincial Government, The coastal frontal zone in the South-West Sea of Korea and the offshore frontal zone in the northern area of the East China Sea can be divided into several types (Type of Winter, Summer, Spring, Autumn and late Autumn), Short term variations of SST fronts have a tendency not to move to any Bleat extent for several days. The location of the frontal zone in the southwestern sea of Cheju Island changes on a much large scale than that of the one in the southern coast of Korea, The frontal Tone, formed every year in the southern sea of Korea approaches closer to the coastal area in winter, and moves closer to the south in spring and autumn. The frontal zone of the southwestern sea of Cheju Island moves in a westerly direction from the east, and reaches its most westerly point in the winter and its most easterly point in the summer related to the seasonal change of the Tsushima Current. Additionally, the frontal zone of the southwestern sea of Korea becomes extremely weak in March, April and November. SST fronts are formed every year around the line connecting Cheju Island to Yeoseo Island or to Chungsan Island in the Cheju Strait. A Ring-shaped tidal mixing front appears along the coastal area of Cheju Island throughout the year except during the months from November to January. Especially, in May and October fronts are formed between the coastal waters of Cheju Island and the Tsushima currents connecting the frontal zone of the coastal region in the southern sea of Korea with that of the southwestern sea of Cheju Island.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.185-192
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• 1991

The vertical distribution and chemical characteristics of water masses were measured along two south-north transects in the polar front region of the central Korean East Sea. In February, a thermocline was present at depth between 50m and loom at the southern sites of a landward A-transect, and its depth was gradually deepened northward. At an outside B-transect, a thermocline was observed at significantly deep depth of 300m to 400m at two northern stations(Stn. 10 and 11), though the depth of the southward stations was nearly identical to that at the northward stations on a A-transect. In September, there were vertically more various water masses, i.e. the Tsushima Warm surface water(TWSW) or more than $20^{\circ}C$, the Tsushima Middle water(TMW) with a range of $12{\~}17^{\circ}C$, the North Korea Cold Water(NKCW) with $1{\~}7^{\circ}C$ temperature, the Japan Sea Proper Water(JSPW) of less than $1^{\circ}C$, and the mixed water. The North Korea Cold Water could be distinguishable from the other waters, especially from the mixed water of the Tsushima Middle Water and the Japan Sea Proper Water by the pattern of $T-O_2$ diagram. For instance, the North Korea Cold Water had higher oxygen by $1{\~}2ml/l$ than those in the mixed water, although both the two water masses ranged $1{\~}7^{\circ}C$ in water temperature. AOU value was the highest in the JSPW and the lowest in the TWSW. Also, AOU indicated a nearly linear and negative correlation with water temperature. However, AOU data for two masses, the NKCW and the TMW, in September departed remarkably from a regression line. Moreover, the ratio of $$\Delta P/\Delta AOU)$ in September was about $0.45{\mu}g-at/ml$ and higher than the value observed in the open sea. This high value could be elucidated by two factors; intrusion of the NKCW with high oxygen and molecular diffusion of dissolved oxygen from the surface into the lower layer. AOU would be a useful tracer for water masses in the polar front area of the Korean East Sea.

• Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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• v.24 no.3
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• pp.177-184
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• 1991

We have investigated geographical distribution and physico-chemical properties of water masses or water types at mid-bottom depth in the neighbouring sea of Cheju Island in August 1986. In 50m layer the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water(YSBCW) below $12^{\circ}C$ was observed in the northwestern area of Cheju Island, while the Tsushima Warm Water(TWW) with relatively high temperature$(>16^{\circ}C)$ and salinity more than 34.0 in its southeastern area extended as far as the coast of about 15km. Also, 50m layer at the outside stations of its southwestern area indicated relatively cold water temperature$(11-30^{\circ}C)$, probably due to southward transport of the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water(YSBCW . The Yellow Sea Warm Water(YSWW), the mixed water of the YSBCW and the TWW, ranged $13^{\circ}C$ to $16^{\circ}C$ in water temperature and was appeared mainly in the coastal and intermediate area of Cheju Island. And the relatively cold water in the southwestern area and the Tsushima Warm Water were more extensively distributed in 50m layer than the deeper layer. Horizontal distributions of nitrate and phosphate showed a pattern similar to that of water temperature. As it were, the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water had the highest concentration of nutrients, while southwestern outside stations had the lowest nutrient contents. Especially, the concentration of nitrate in the latter was remarkably low compared with the value at the other stations. It may be attributed to intensive vertical mixing by collision of the northward driven Tn with the southward driven YSBCW. Also, it was particular that the Tsushima Warm Water indicated relatively high silicate content corresponding to that of the Yellow Sea Bottom Cold Water. Based on the data of $\Delta Si/\Delta P$ ratio, it seems that the mid-bottom waters in this study area are younger than the surface or intermediate water in the Korean East Sea.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.16 no.4
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• pp.195-211
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• 2010

An exhibition is defined as market events for specific duration to present exhibitors' main product range to either business or private visitors, and it also plays a key role as effective marketing channels. Especially, as the effect of the opinions of the visitors after the exhibition impacts directly on sales or the image of companies, exhibition organizers must consider various needs of visitors. To meet needs of visitors, ubiquitous technologies have been applied in some exhibitions. However, despite of the development of the ubiquitous technologies, their services cannot always reflect visitors' preferences as they only generate information when visitors request. As a result, they have reached their limit to meet needs of visitors, which consequently might lead them to loss of marketing opportunity. Recommendation systems can be the right type to overcome these limitations. They can recommend the booths to coincide with visitors' preferences, so that they help visitors who are in difficulty for choices in exhibition environment. One of the most successful and widely used technologies for building recommender systems is called Collaborative Filtering. Traditional recommender systems, however, only use neighbors' evaluations or behaviors for a personalized prediction. Therefore, they can not reflect visitors' dynamic preference, and also lack of accuracy in exhibition environment. Although there is much useful information to infer visitors' preference in ubiquitous environment (e.g., visitors' current location, booth visit path, and so on), they use only limited information for recommendation. In this study, we propose a booth recommendation methodology using Sequential Association Rule which considers the sequence of visiting. Recent studies of Sequential Association Rule use the constraints to improve the performance. However, since traditional Sequential Association Rule considers the whole rules to recommendation, they have a scalability problem when they are adapted to a large exhibition scale. To solve this problem, our methodology composes the confidence database before recommendation process. To compose the confidence database, we first search preceding rules which have the frequency above threshold. Next, we compute the confidences of each preceding rules to each booth which is not contained in preceding rules. Therefore, the confidence database has two kinds of information which are preceding rules and their confidence to each booth. In recommendation process, we just generate preceding rules of the target visitors based on the records of the visits, and recommend booths according to the confidence database. Throughout these steps, we expect reduction of time spent on recommendation process. To evaluate proposed methodology, we use real booth visit records which are collected by RFID technology in IT exhibition. Booth visit records also contain the visit sequence of each visitor. We compare the performance of proposed methodology with traditional Collaborative Filtering system. As a result, our proposed methodology generally shows higher performance than traditional Collaborative Filtering. We can also see some features of it in experimental results. First, it shows the highest performance at one booth recommendation. It detects preceding rules with some portions of visitors. Therefore, if there is a visitor who moved with very a different pattern compared to the whole visitors, it cannot give a correct recommendation for him/her even though we increase the number of recommendation. Trained by the whole visitors, it cannot correctly give recommendation to visitors who have a unique path. Second, the performance of general recommendation systems increase as time expands. However, our methodology shows higher performance with limited information like one or two time periods. Therefore, not only can it recommend even if there is not much information of the target visitors' booth visit records, but also it uses only small amount of information in recommendation process. We expect that it can give real?time recommendations in exhibition environment. Overall, our methodology shows higher performance ability than traditional Collaborative Filtering systems, we expect it could be applied in booth recommendation system to satisfy visitors in exhibition environment.

• Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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• v.20 no.2
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• pp.93-107
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• 2014

In this paper, we report what we have observed with regard to user-perspective issue clustering based on multi-layered two-mode network analysis. This work is significant in the context of data collection by companies about customer needs. Most companies have failed to uncover such needs for products or services properly in terms of demographic data such as age, income levels, and purchase history. Because of excessive reliance on limited internal data, most recommendation systems do not provide decision makers with appropriate business information for current business circumstances. However, part of the problem is the increasing regulation of personal data gathering and privacy. This makes demographic or transaction data collection more difficult, and is a significant hurdle for traditional recommendation approaches because these systems demand a great deal of personal data or transaction logs. Our motivation for presenting this paper to academia is our strong belief, and evidence, that most customers' requirements for products can be effectively and efficiently analyzed from unstructured textual data such as Internet news text. In order to derive users' requirements from textual data obtained online, the proposed approach in this paper attempts to construct double two-mode networks, such as a user-news network and news-issue network, and to integrate these into one quasi-network as the input for issue clustering. One of the contributions of this research is the development of a methodology utilizing enormous amounts of unstructured textual data for user-oriented issue clustering by leveraging existing text mining and social network analysis. In order to build multi-layered two-mode networks of news logs, we need some tools such as text mining and topic analysis. We used not only SAS Enterprise Miner 12.1, which provides a text miner module and cluster module for textual data analysis, but also NetMiner 4 for network visualization and analysis. Our approach for user-perspective issue clustering is composed of six main phases: crawling, topic analysis, access pattern analysis, network merging, network conversion, and clustering. In the first phase, we collect visit logs for news sites by crawler. After gathering unstructured news article data, the topic analysis phase extracts issues from each news article in order to build an article-news network. For simplicity, 100 topics are extracted from 13,652 articles. In the third phase, a user-article network is constructed with access patterns derived from web transaction logs. The double two-mode networks are then merged into a quasi-network of user-issue. Finally, in the user-oriented issue-clustering phase, we classify issues through structural equivalence, and compare these with the clustering results from statistical tools and network analysis. An experiment with a large dataset was performed to build a multi-layer two-mode network. After that, we compared the results of issue clustering from SAS with that of network analysis. The experimental dataset was from a web site ranking site, and the biggest portal site in Korea. The sample dataset contains 150 million transaction logs and 13,652 news articles of 5,000 panels over one year. User-article and article-issue networks are constructed and merged into a user-issue quasi-network using Netminer. Our issue-clustering results applied the Partitioning Around Medoids (PAM) algorithm and Multidimensional Scaling (MDS), and are consistent with the results from SAS clustering. In spite of extensive efforts to provide user information with recommendation systems, most projects are successful only when companies have sufficient data about users and transactions. Our proposed methodology, user-perspective issue clustering, can provide practical support to decision-making in companies because it enhances user-related data from unstructured textual data. To overcome the problem of insufficient data from traditional approaches, our methodology infers customers' real interests by utilizing web transaction logs. In addition, we suggest topic analysis and issue clustering as a practical means of issue identification.

• The Korean Journal of Petroleum Geology
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• v.10 no.1_2 s.11
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• pp.23-33
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• 2004

The Lago Sofia conglomerate in southern Chile is a lenticular unit encased within mudstone-dominated, deep-sea successions (Cerro Toro Formation, upper Cretaceous), extending from north to south for more than $120{\cal}km$. The Lago Sofia conglomerate is a unique example of long, gravelly deep-sea channels, which are rare in the modern environments. In the northern part (areas of Lago Pehoe and Laguna Goic), the conglomerate unit consists of 3-5 conglomerate bodies intervened by mudstone sequences. Paleocurrent data from these bodies indicate sediment transport to the east, south, and southeart. The conglomerate bodies in the northern Part are interpreted as the tributary channels that drained down the Paleoslope and converged to form N-S-trending trunk channels. In the southern part (Lago Sofia section), the conglomerate unit comprises a thick (> 300 m) conglomerate body, which probably formed in axial trunk channels of the N-5-trending foredeep trough. The well-exposed Lago Sofia section allowed for detailed investigation of sedimentary facies and large-scale architecture of the deepsea channel conglomerate. The conglomerate in Lago Sofia section comprises stratified conglomerate, massive-to-graded conglomerate, and diamictite, which represent bedload deposition under turbidity currents, deposition by high-density turbidity currents, and muddy debris flows, respectively. Paleocurrent data suggest that the debris flows originated from the failure of nearby channel banks or slopes flanking the channel system, whereas the turbidity currents flowed parallel to the orientation of the overall channel system. Architectural elements produced by turbidity currents represent vertical stacking of gravel sheets, lateral accretion of gravel bars, migration of gravel dunes, and filling of channel thalwegs and scoured hollows, similar to those in terrestrial gravel-bed braided rivers. Observations of large-scale stratal pattern reveal that the channel bodies are offset stacked toward the east, suggestive of an eastward migration of the axial trunk channel. The eastward channel migration is probably due to tectonic tilting related to the uplift of the Andean protocordillera just west of the Lago Sofia deep-sea channel system.

• Journal of muscle and joint health
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• v.3 no.1
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• pp.90-103
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• 1996

The purpose of this paper is to compare two approach to assessment of coping patterns. The sampling method was a purposive sampling technique. The study participants were out patients 113 of rheumatoid arthritis center of one University hospitals in Seoul. Datas were collected from Nov. 13 to Nov. 24, 1995. The instruments used for this study were Graphic Rating Scales of pain, The Beck Depression Inventory and Coping Patterns tool. The collected data were analyzed for frequency, means, SD, factor analysis., Pearsons' correlations and ANOVA. The results were summerized as follows ; 1. When raw scores were used : there were not correlation in all three coping patterns. 2. When relative scores were used : there were significantly correlated in all three coping patterns. 1) Active coping and Positive-cognitive coping (r=-0.352, p< 0.0001) 2) Positive-cognitive coping and Negative-cognitive coping (r=-0.594, p< 0.0001) 3) Active coping and Negative-cognitive coping(r=-0.544, p< 0.0001) The results of this research with relative scales provided more insight into the correlation in all three coping patterns. 3. Pearsons' Correlations were computed for each coping pattern, age, pain level, duration of pain and BDI. 1) Using raw score : (1) Active coping was significantly related to pain level(sensory score ; r=0.268, p<0.05, affective score ; r=0.266, p< 0.05) (2) Positive-cognitive coping was significantly related to age (r=-0.252, p< 0.05), pain level (sensory score ; r= -0.244, p< 0.05) (3) Negative-cognitive coping was significantly related to depression level (r=0.312 p< 0.0001). 2) Using relative score (1) Active coping was significantly related to pain level(sensory score ; r=0.299, p<0.05, affective score ; r=0.246, p< 0.05) (2) Positive-cognitive coping was significantly related to age (r= -0.187, P< 0.05), pain level (sensory score ; r=-0.317, p<0.0001, affective score : r=-0.305, p<0.0001) and depression level(-0.339, p<0.0001)) (3) Negative-cognitive coping was significantly related to depression. level(r=0.313, p<0.0001). 4. When raw and realtive coping scores were compared to those of age groups, religious groups and BDI level(high, middle, low) ; 1) Using raw score : (1) Active coping : there were not significantly difference (2) Positive-cognitive coping ; 20-39 age group and 50-59age group had significantly higher scores than over 60age group. BDI-low level group had significantly higher scores than other groups. (3) Negative-cognitive coping : 20-39age group and over 60age group had significantly higher scores than 40-49age group. Non-religious group had significantly higher scores than christian group. BDI-high level group had significantly higher scores than other groups. 2) Using relative score : (1) Active coping : over 60 age group had significantly higher scores than 20-39 age group and 40-49age group had significantly higher scores than 20-39 age group (2) Positive-cognitive coping ; 40-49age group, 20-39age group and 50-59age group had significantly higher scores than over 60age group. Christian group had significantly higher scores than non-religious group. BDI-low level group had significantly higher scores than other groups. (3) Negative-cognitive coping ; Non-religious group had significantly higher scores than christian group and buddhistic group. BDI-high level group had significantly higher scores than other groups. The current data suggest that relative scores may yield a different perspective on coping patters than raw scores. The use of relative scores reveals the relation clearly, without its being blurred statistically by the effect of other coping strategies or being relegated to a partial correlation. The use of relative scores holds promise for delineating the relations between ways of coping and health-related behavior.