• Title/Summary/Keyword: Cumulative growth

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A Reliability Growth Prediction for a One-Shot System Using AMSAA Model (AMSAA 모델을 이용한 일회성 체계의 신뢰도성장 예측)

  • Kim, Myung Soo;Chung, Jae Woo;Lee, Jong Sin
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.14 no.4
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    • pp.225-229
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    • 2014
  • A one-shot device is defined as a product, system, weapon, or equipment that can be used only once. After use, the device is destroyed or must undergo extensive rebuild. Determining the reliability of a one-shot device poses a unique challenge to the manufacturers and users due to the destructive nature and costs of the testing. This paper presents a reliability growth prediction for a one-shot system. It is assumed that 1) test duration is discrete(i.e. trials or rounds); 2) trials are statistically independent; 3) the number of failures for a given system configuration is distributed according to a binomial distribution; and 4) the cumulative expected number of failures through any sequence of configurations is given by AMSAA model. When the system development is represented by three configurations and the number of trials and failures during configurations are given, the AMSAA model parameters and reliability at configuration 3 are estimated by using a reliability growth analysis software. Further, if the reliability growth predictions do not meet the target reliability, the sample size of an additional test is determined for achieving the target reliability.

Optimization of Culture Conditions for Production of Pneumococcal Capsular Polysaccharide Type IV

  • Kim, S.N.;Min, K.K.;Choi, I.H.;Kim, S.W.;Pyo, S.N.;Rhee, D.K.
    • Archives of Pharmacal Research
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.173-177
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    • 1996
  • The Pneumococcus, Streptococcus pneumoniae, has an ample polysaccharide (PS) capsule that is highly antigenic and is the main virulence factor of the organism. The capsular PS is the source of PS vaccine. This investigation was undertaken to optimize the culture conditions for the production of capsular PS by type 4 pneumococcus. Among several culture media, brain heart infusion (BHI) and Casitone based medium were found to support luxuriant growth of pneumococcus type 4 at the same level. Therefore in this study, the Casitone based medium was used to study optimization of the culture condition because of BHI broth's high cost and complex nature. The phase of growth which accomodated maximum PS production was exponential phase. Concentrations of glucose greater than 0.8% did not enhance growth or PS production. Substitution of nitrogen sources with other resources or supplementation of various concentrations of metal ion (with the exception of calcium, copper, and magnesium ions) had adverse effects on growth and PS production. On the other hand, low level aeration and supplementation of 3 mg/l concentration of asparagine, phenylalanine, or threonine were beneficial for increased PS production. The synergistic effect of all the favorable conditions observed in pneumococcal growth assays provided a two-fold cumulative increase in capsular PS production.

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Re-estimation of Model Parameters in Growth Curves When Adjusting Market Potential and Time of Maximum Sales (성장곡선 예측 모형의 특성치 보정에 따른 매개변수의 재추정)

  • Park, Ju-Seok;Ko, Young-Hyun;Jun, Chi-Hyuck;Lee, Jae-Hwan;Hong, Seung-Pyo;Moon, Hyung-Don
    • IE interfaces
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.103-110
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    • 2003
  • Growth curves are widely used in forecasting the market demand. When there are only a few data points available, the estimated model parameters have a low confidence. In this case, if some expert opinions are available, it would be better for predicting future demand to adjust the model parameters using these information. This paper proposes the methodology for re-estimation of model parameters in growth curves when adjusting market potential and/or time of maximum sales. We also provide the detailed procedures for five growth curves including Bass, Logistic, Gompertz, Weibull and Cumulative Lognormal models. Applications to real data are also included.

Development of Calculating System of Solids Level to Harvest High Solids Potato (Solanum tuberosum L.)

  • Jung, Jae-Youn;Suh, Sang-Gon
    • Horticultural Science & Technology
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    • v.31 no.1
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    • pp.103-109
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    • 2013
  • Estimating the high tuber solids needs a simulation system on potato growth, and its development should be obtained by using agricultural elements which analyze the relationship between crop growth and agricultural factors. An accurate simulation to predict solids level against climatic change employs a calculation of in vivo energy consumption and bias for growth and induction shape in a slight environmental adaptation. So, to calculate in vivo energy consumption, this study took a concept of estimate of the amount of basal metabolism in each tuber. In the validation experiments, the results of measuring solid accumulation of potatoes harvested at dates suggested by simulation agreed with the actual measured values in each regional field during the growth period of years from 2006 till 2010. The mean values of tuber solids level and inter-annual level variation in validation experiments were predicted well by the simulation model. And also, the results of validation experiments represent that concentration of tuber solids were due mainly to the duration of sunshine, above 190 hours per a month, and the cumulative amount of radiation, above 2,200 $MJ{\cdot}m^{-2}$, of the effective growth period.

Growth Model of Leaf Lettuce Based on the Cumulative Photosynthetic Photon Flux Density (적산일사량에 따른 상추 생육모델)

  • 문보흠;이병일
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Bio-Environment Control Conference
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    • 2002.04a
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    • pp.85-92
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    • 2002
  • 채소는 다른 작물에 비해 생육기간이 매우 짧기 때문에 환경의 영향을 많이 받는다. 특히 환경이 제어되는 시설에서 양액재배를 할 경우에는 생육이 왕성하므로 노지에 비해 재배기간을 단축시킬 수 있으며, 근권부 양액제어나 지상부 환경제어를 통해 고품질 채소를 생산할 수 있는 장점이 있다. 따라서 빠른 생육을 제어하거나 예측할 수 없어 수확적기를 놓치면 외관적 품질이 현저히 떨어지고 질적 품질도 저하하여 소비자의 기호에 맞추기 힘들게 된다. (중략)

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Evaluation of Microscopic Damage to TIG Welded Carbon Steel using Acoustic Emission and Ultrasonic Test (음향방출과 초음파를 이용한 TIG 용접탄소강의 미시적 손상평가)

  • Lee, Joon-Hyun;Lee, Jin-Kyung
    • Journal of Ocean Engineering and Technology
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    • v.26 no.5
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    • pp.5-10
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    • 2012
  • In this study, carbon steel (A53) is used as the material for the pipes in a marine plant and ship industry. Welds are necessary to join the carbon steel, and the effect of this welding on the properties of the carbon steel has been studied by many researchers. In this study, the dynamic behavior of welded carbon steel was studied using an acoustic emission (AE) technique, which is a nondestructive test. There are numerous AE parameters that can be used to analyze the damage behavior of carbon steel by external loading. The AE parameters of energy, cumulative count, amplitude, and AE event were used, and each parameter was differentiated according to the degree of damage to the carbon steel. The energy showed a high level at the elastic range of the load curve, while the amplitude had the highest value at the hardening region. The cumulative count showed a growth tendency similar to the loading curve. In addition, an ultrasonic technique and hardness test were applied to evaluate the mechanical properties according to the base zone, HAZ region, and weld zone of the weld specimen. The velocity and attenuation ratio showed little change between zones, and an evaluation of the ultrasonic waves on each zone of the specimen was found to be a useful method to clarify the mechanical properties of the carbon steel.

Statistical Life Prediction of Fatigue Crack Growth for SiC Whisker Reinforced Aluminium Composite (SiC 휘스커 보강 Al6061 복합재료의 통계학적 피로균열진전 수명예측)

  • 권재도;안정주;김상태
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.475-485
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    • 1995
  • In this study, statistical analysis of fatigue data which had obtained from respective 24 fatigue crack, was examined for SiC whisker reinforced aluminium 6061 composite alloy (SiC$_{w}$/A16061) and aluminium 6061 alloy. SiC volume fraction in composite alloy is 25%. The analysis results stress intensity factor range and 0.1 mm fatigue crack initiation life for SiC$_{w}$/A16061 composite & A16061 matrix are the log-normal distribution. And regression analysis by linear model, exponential model and multiplicative model were performed to find out the relationship between fatigue crack growth rate(da/dN) and stress intensity for find out the relationship between fatigue crack growth rate(da/dN) and stress intensity factor range(.DELTA.K) in the SiC$_{w}$/A16061 composite and examine the applicability of Paris' equation to SiC$_{w}$A16061 composite. Also computer simulation was performed for fatigue life prediction of SiC$_{w}$/A16061 composite using the statistical results of this study.udy.

Analysis of the Shell Height Frequencies on the Fresh-Water Cockle, Corbicula elatior, by Means of Probability Graph (확률도에 의한 재첩(Corbicula elatior) 각고빈도의 분석)

  • PARK Sing Won;LEE Sung Hun
    • Korean Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences
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    • v.1 no.1
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    • pp.31-43
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    • 1968
  • 1. Shell height frequencies of the fresh-water cockle, Corbicula elatior, sampled in the period of 1960 to 1963, are analyzed to assess the age composition and average growth pattern. Cumulative frequencies in a sample are traced on a probability scale, and the points of inflection on a probability graph are assumed to dissect age groups. 2. Seasonal growth of Corbicula elatior in the Naktong River ill as follows: Young cockles settle down on river-bed by June and grow rapidly during the summer season, reaching 14mm in shell height by October. From October to April the growth is very slow. The rapid growth in the second year starts around in May. 3. Survival rate per year for Corbicula elatior in the Naktong River is estimated to be $5\~10\%$ by age composition.

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Lifetime Production of Kajli Ewes at Khushab and Khizerabad : Reproduction and Lamb Production as Affected by Ewe Longevity

  • Qureshi, M.A.;Nawaz, M.;Khan, M.A.
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.10 no.4
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    • pp.408-415
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    • 1997
  • Data from 5,311 ewes and 13,076 lambing from 1977 through 1994 were used to analyse both annual and cumulative outputs in terms on total number of lambs born, total lamb weight weaned and total wool produced per ewe for ewe longevity 1 to 8 depending on their productive life in the flock. Ewes at Khushab produced 0.08 more lambs per parturition than ewes at Khizerabad; however, 0.39 less lambs were weaned at Khushab than at Khizerabad. Similarly, cumulative number of lambs born was more at Khushab flock than Khizerabad flock (p < .01). However, total weight of lambs weaned was greater at Khizerabad than Khushab flock (p < .01) for each ewe longevity. Most ewes (35%) were sold/replaced just after their first parturition (i. e. ewe longevity 1). The overall mean for annual sale/replacement was 32 and 23% at Khushab and Khizerabad, respectively. Distribution of growth and reproductive traits from 1977-94 did not show upward or downward trend inspite of heavy sale/replacement except yearly variation. Lack of any genetic progress over the year suggested that random breeding was employed without any scientific selection programme. Annual means for lambs born, lambs weaned and weight of lambs weaned per ewe present in the flock were the highest for ewe longevity 2 compared with other ewe longevity groups. Relative efficiency in terms of net income was highest for ewe longevity 5 followed by ewe longevity 4 and 6 in both flocks.

Distribution Characteristics of Data Retention Time Considering the Probability Distribution of Cell Parameters in DRAM

  • Lee, Gyeong-Ho;Lee, Gi-Yeong
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics Engineers of Korea SD
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    • v.39 no.4
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2002
  • The distribution characteristics of data retention time for DRAM was studied in connection with the probability distribution of the cell parameters. Using the cell parameters and the transient characteristics of cell node voltage, data retention time was investigated. The activation energy for dielectric layer growth on cell capacitance, the recombination trap energy for leakage current in the junction depletion region, and the sensitivity characteristics of sense amplifier were used as the random variables to perform the Monte Carlo simulation, and the probability distributions of cell parameters and distribution characteristics of cumulative failure bit on data retention time in DRAM cells were calculated. we found that the sensitivity characteristics of sense amplifier strongly affected on the tail bit distribution of data retention time.