• 한국아동복지학
• /
• 제26호
• /
• pp.61-86
• /
• 2008

본연구의 목적은 이혼가정자녀들의 문제행동을 예측하는데 있어서 누적적 위험모델의 효과성과 누적적 위험요인의 수와 그 누적적 영향력이 이혼가정자녀의 문제행동에 영향을 미치는지를 검증하는데 있다. 누적적위험 요인은 생태체계적인 측면에서 12개로 구성하였으며 위험요인의 원점수를 2진수로 변환하여 0-12점의 점수로 측정하였다. 연구결과, 이혼가정자녀들이 부모이혼후 경험한 위험요인의 수가 많은 아동일수록 문제행동의 가능성은 증가하는 것으로 나타나 위험요인의 누적적 효과가 있음이 검증되었다. 또한 이혼가정자녀의 문제행동에 누적적위험요인의 영향력과 다중위험 요인의 영향력이 일관성있게 나타났다. 이러한 결과를 근거로 이혼가정자녀들의 행동문제를 위한 예방과 전략이 모색되었다.

• 아동학회지
• /
• 제35권2호
• /
• pp.43-61
• /
• 2014

The main purpose of this study was to investigate the paths from the cumulative risk factors to infant's development at 24 months of age via the mediation of maternal parenting behaviors. The data consisted of 3 year's worth of data harvested from 1802 families participating in the Panel Study on Korean Children (PSKC). The results revealed that cumulative family risk factors tended to stay in the family in relatively stable ways. Early risk factors significantly predicted later risk factors. Cumulative risk factors were negatively associated with the parenting styles of mothers, which in turn, significantly predicted the development of the infants concerned. Statistical tests supported the notion that mothers' parenting behavior is the mediator of the relation between family risk factors and infant's developmental outcomes.

• 한국아동복지학
• /
• 제54호
• /
• pp.79-111
• /
• 2016

본 연구는 영유아 시기에 경험하는 생애 초기 가족의 누적위험요인이 가정학습환경을 통해 유아의 언어 및 사회성 발달에 영향을 미치는 구조적 모델을 검증하는 데 그 목적이 있다. 만 3세 유아의 언어발달은 표현어휘력으로, 사회성 발달은 또래유능성으로 나타내었다. 한국아동패널(PSKC)의 2차년도와 4차년도 자료를 이용하여, 1,725가족을 대상으로 분석을 실시하였다. 상관관계 분석 및 구조방정식모델링 기법을 통하여 분석한 결과는 다음과 같다. 우선, 만 1세 누적위험요인과 만 3세 누적위험요인 간 상관관계는 높아, 누적위험요인의 종단적 지속성을 시사하였다. 만 1세 누적위험요인은 만 3세 가정학습환경의 질적 수준에 부정적인 영향을 미치고 가정학습환경은 유아의 언어 및 사회성 발달 모두를 유의하게 예측하였다. 하지만 만 1세 누적위험요인은 유아발달을 직접적으로 예측하지 않았다. 마지막으로 만3세 누적위험요인은 유아의 언어발달을 직접 예측하였으나 사회성 발달 및 가정학습환경에 유의한 영향을 미치지 않았다. 만 1세 누적위험요인${\rightarrow}$가정학습환경${\rightarrow}$유아발달의 구조적 관계에서 가정학습환경의 매개적 역할은 통계적으로 유의하였다. 종합하면, 영아기 가족 내 누적위험요인은 유아기 자녀의 발달을 돕는 가정학습환경 구성에 부정적인 영향을 미쳐 유아 발달에 간접적인 효과를 가지는 것으로 밝혀졌다. 영아기 자녀를 둔 위기가족을 대상으로 하는 조기 중재 및 지원에 대한 정책적 시사점이 논의되었다.

• 한국신뢰성학회지:신뢰성응용연구
• /
• 제16권1호
• /
• pp.56-63
• /
• 2016

Purpose: The purpose of this study is to point out that the Kaplan-Meier method is not valid to calculate the survival probability or failure probability (risk) in the presence of competing risks and to introduce more valid method of cumulative incidence function. Methods: Survival analysis methods have been widely used in biostatistics division. However the same methods have not been utilized in reliability division. Especially competing risks cases, where several causes of failure occur and the occurrence of one event precludes the occurrence of the other events, are scattered in reliability field. But they are not noticed in the realm of reliability expertism or they are analysed in the wrong way. Specifically Kaplan-Meier method which assumes that the censoring times and failure times are independent is used to calculate the probability of failure in the presence of competing risks, thereby overestimating the real probability of failure. Hence, cumulative incidence function is introduced and sample competing risks data are analysed using cumulative incidence function and some graphs. Finally comparison of cumulative incidence functions and regression type analysis are mentioned briefly. Results: Cumulative incidence function is used to calculate the survival probability or failure probability (risk) in the presence of competing risks and some useful graphs depicting the failure trend over the lifetime are introduced. Conclusion: This paper shows that Kaplan-Meier method is not appropriate for the evaluation of survival or failure over the course of lifetime. In stead, cumulative incidence function is shown to be useful. Some graphs using the cumulative incidence functions are also shown to be informative.

• 한국산업보건학회지
• /
• 제23권1호
• /
• pp.20-26
• /
• 2013

Objectives: This study was conducted to evaluate the health risk of workers exposed to butyl glycidyl ether to prevent them from developing occupational diseases. Methods: The workplaces that coat floor with epoxy were selected and the samples were collected and analyzed with NIOSH 1616 Method. We calculate workplace reference concentration using with NOAEL estimated by the study of Anderson et al. in 1978. Risk was calculated by the ratio of exposure to workplace reference concentration. Monte-Carlo simulation was performed to derivate the median, cumulative 90%, and cumulative 95% value by using Crystal Ball. Results: Butyl glycidyl ether is a skin, eye irritator and can result in central nervous system depression, allergic reaction. NOAEL was 38 ppm and workplace reference concentration was calculated as 0.73 ppm corrected with uncertainty factors. Geometric mean was 1.152 ppm and geometric standard deviation was 1.522 by the workplace environment measurement. The median, cumulative 90%, and cumulative 95% value of risk were calculated as 1.617, 1.934, and 2.092, respectively. Conclusions: Not only cumulative 90% and cumulative 95% value but also the median of risk is higher than 1.0 by the risk characterization, so it can do a lot of harm to workers. Therefore, the process of derivating workplace reference concentration and the appropriacy of the uncertainty factors should be re-examined.

• 한국안전학회지
• /
• 제12권4호
• /
• pp.153-160
• /
• 1997

The purpose of this paper is to present design recommendations intended to reduce the risk of cumulative trauma disorders(CTD) at the Osram Slvania, Inc. The CTD risk index score is a method which quantifies the risk factors to CTD incidence, namely extreme postures, high force elements, frequent damaging hand motions, and other miscellaneous factors. The risk index score quantified the jobs as a single composite value by weighting the scores for each risk factor. Jobs were prioritized for capital outlays in workstation redesign, and the factors of highest risk within each job could be identified. Three jobs which presented the greatest risk of CTD incidence were redesigned ergonomically.

• Nuclear Engineering and Technology
• /
• 제56권3호
• /
• pp.819-823
• /
• 2024

The main criteria used in NEI 18-04 to define SSCs as risk-significant include (1) the SSC is required to keep all LBEs within the F-C target, and (2) the total frequency with the SSC failed exceeds 1% of the limit for at least one of the three cumulative risk metrics used for evaluating the integrated plant risk. The first one is a reasonable criterion in determining the risk significant SSCs. However, the second criterion may not be adequate to serve the purpose of determining the risk significance of SSCs. In the second criterion, the cumulative risk metric values representing the integrated plant risk (less the preventive and mitigative effects of the SSC being evaluated) are compared to a risk limit that represents a very small contribution to the overall integrated plant risk, which corresponds appropriately to the contributions from individual SSCs. The easiest approach to redefine the NEI 18-04 definition of risk-significant SSCs in relation to the integrated plant risk metrics is to compare the difference, between the risk metric value calculated with the SSC failed and the risk metric value calculated with the SSC credited, with 1% of the risk limit established for the integrated plant risk metrics.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
• /
• 제23권6호
• /
• pp.555-562
• /
• 2016

Interval censored data often occur in an observational study where the subject is followed periodically. Instead of observing an exact failure time, two inspection times that include it are available. There are several methods to analyze interval censored failure time data (Sun, 2006). However, in the presence of competing risks, few methods have been suggested to estimate covariate effect on interval censored competing risk data. A sub-distribution hazard model is a commonly used regression model because it has one-to-one correspondence with a cumulative incidence function. Alternatively, Klein and Andersen (2005) proposed a pseudo-value approach that directly uses the cumulative incidence function. In this paper, we consider an extension of the pseudo-value approach into the interval censored data to estimate regression coefficients. The pseudo-values generated from the estimated cumulative incidence function then become response variables in a generalized estimating equation. Simulation studies show that the suggested method performs well in several situations and an HIV-AIDS cohort study is analyzed as a real data example.

• 한국산업보건학회지
• /
• 제11권1호
• /
• pp.85-91
• /
• 2001

Background : It goes without saying that cumulative trauma disorders is spreading to various types of occupation in many advanced countries including America, and it forms considerable rate of total occupational disorders already. and as the result of it, the seriousness of worker health problem and economic loss owing to production loss, recuperation expense, etc. are on the increasing trend through whole society. In case of Korea, the related measures as well as accurate fact-finding survey data on cumulative trauma disorders aren't prepared in detail, so it implies forward problem would be serious. Purpose : The purpose of this study is to draw the risk factor of cumulative trauma disorders in production factory, to forecast the rate of occurrence of cumulative trauma disorders on the basis of subjective symptoms, and to present forward realistic and effective prevention measures by showing the risk of cumulative trauma disorders, objecting the production factory of a domestic riding automobile assembly shop, by estimating in the aspect of human-engineering through the analysis of risk factor being a cause of cumulative trauma disorders. Methods : For this study, I investigated work type and on-duty hours, breathing time, and subjective symptoms of cumulative trauma disorders through questionnaire, objecting the workers in press. car body, coating, and outfit factory. Results : As a result of research, 81.2% of workers were in the physical burden due to present working, and the highest prevalence by part of body is an waist. The higher a rule score, The higher the number of workers complaind for working intensity, and the higher age work duration, tool used time, the higher prevalence of subjective symptoms by part of body. The number of workers complaind subjective symptom for treatment is the highest in drugstore.

• 품질경영학회지
• /
• 제39권2호
• /
• pp.320-328
• /
• 2011

This research proposes comprehensive models for analyzing common cause failures (CCF) due to cumulative shocks and to assess system reliability under the CCF. The proposed cumulative shock models are based on the binomial failure rate (BFR) model. Six kinds of models are proposed so as to explain diverse cumulative shock phenomena. The models are composed of the initial failure probability, shape parameter, and the total shock number. Some parameters of the proposed models can not be explicitly estimated, so we adopt the Expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm in order to obtain the maximum likelihood estimator (MLE) for the parameters. By estimating the parameters for the cumulative shock models, the system reliability with CCF can be assessed sequentially according to the number of cumulative shocks. The result can be utilizes in dynamic probabilistic safety assessment (PSA), aging studies, or risk management for nuclear power plants. Replacement or maintenance policies can also be developed based on the proposed model.