• 제목/요약/키워드: Cumulative Probability Density

검색결과 94건 처리시간 0.025초

확률밀도함수를 이용한 피로균열 발생수명 예측에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Prediction of Fatigue Life by use of Probability Density Function)

  • 김종호
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제23권4호
    • /
    • pp.453-461
    • /
    • 1999
  • The estimation of fatigue life at the design stage is very important in order to arrive at feasible and cost effective solutions considering the total lifetime of the structure and machinery compo-nents. In this study the practical procedure of prediction of fatigue life by use of cumulative damage factors based on Miner-Palmgren hypothesis and probability density function is shown with a $135,000m^3$ LNG tank being used as an example. In particular the parameters of Weibull distribution taht determine the stress spectrum are dis-cussed. At the end some of uncertainties associated with fatigue life prediction are discussed. The main results obtained from this study are as follows: 1. The practical procedure of prediction of fatigue life by use of cumulative damage factors expressed in combination of probability density function and S-N data is proposed. 2. The calculated fatigue life is influenced by the shape parameter and stress block. The conser-vative fatigue design can be achieved when using higher value of shape parameter and the stress blocks divded into more stress blocks.

  • PDF

LNG탱크 겹침용접부의 피로강도에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Fatigue Strength of Lap Weld of LNG Tank)

  • 김종호
    • 한국해양공학회지
    • /
    • 제13권3호통권33호
    • /
    • pp.29-35
    • /
    • 1999
  • At the design of Mark III membrane type LNG tank, an analytical and experimental approach on the fatigue strengths of membrane and its welds are very important in order to assist designers and surveyors. In this study, fatigue tests of lap weld of Mark III membrane type LNG tank were carried out and cumulative damage factor was calculated in order to estimate the fatigue life by probability density function and rule methods. It contained the following tests and reviews : 1) The fatigue tests of lap weld of stainless steel according to statistical testing method recommended by JSME, 2)Preparation of S-N curve for lap welds considering the statistical properties of the results of fatigue tests. 3) Procedure for estimating the initiation life of fatigue crack of lap welds under variable loads by the rule lf classification society and probability density function, 4) Guideline for inspection of lap welds fo membrane type LNG tank.

  • PDF

질화물 우선석출이 발생하는 결정립계 어긋남 각도의 통계 및 확률적 평가 (II) (Statistical and Probabilistic Assessment for the Misorientation Angle of a Grain Boundary for the Precipitation of in a Austenitic Stainless Steel (II))

  • 이상호;최병학;이태호;김성준;윤기봉;김선화
    • 대한금속재료학회지
    • /
    • 제46권9호
    • /
    • pp.554-562
    • /
    • 2008
  • The distribution and prediction interval for the misorientation angle of grain boundary at which $Cr_2N$ was precipitated during heating at $900^{\circ}C$ for $10^4$ sec were newly estimated, and followed by the estimation of mathematical and median rank methods. The probability density function of the misorientation angle can be estimated by a statistical analysis. And then the ($1-{\alpha}$)100% prediction interval of misorientation angle obtained by the estimated probability density function. If the estimated probability density function was symmetric then a prediction interval for the misorientation angle could be derived by the estimated probability density function. In the case of non-symmetric probability density function, the prediction interval could be obtained from the cumulative distribution function of the estimated probability density function. In this paper, 95, 99 and 99.73% prediction interval obtained by probability density function method and cumulative distribution function method and compared with the former results by median rank regression or mathematical method.

확률밀도함수를 이용한 멤브레인방식 LNG탱크의 선형누적손상도 평가에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Evaluation of Linear Cumulative Damage Factor of Membrane Type LNG Tank by use of Probability Density Function)

  • 김종호
    • Journal of Advanced Marine Engineering and Technology
    • /
    • 제28권6호
    • /
    • pp.993-999
    • /
    • 2004
  • The estimation of fatigue life at the design stage of membrane type LNG tank is very important in order to arrive at feasible and cost effective solutions considering the total lifetime of the tank. In this study, the practical procedure of fatigue life prediction by use of cumulative damage factors based on Miner-Palmgren hypothesis and probability density function has been shown with the corner region of Gaz Transport Membrane type LNG tank being used as an example. In particular the parameters of Weibull distribution that determine the stress spectrum are discussed. The main results obtained from this study are as follows: 1. The recommended value for the shape parameter of Weibull distribution for the LNG tank is 1.1 in case of using the direct calculation method proposed in this study. 2. The calculated fatigue life is influenced by the shape parameter of Weibull distribution and stress block. The safe fatigue design can be achieved by using higher value of shape parameter and the stress blocks divided into more stress blocks.

Theoretical prediction on thickness distribution of cement paste among neighboring aggregates in concrete

  • Chen, Huisu;Sluys, Lambertus Johannes;Stroeven, Piet;Sun, Wei
    • Computers and Concrete
    • /
    • 제8권2호
    • /
    • pp.163-176
    • /
    • 2011
  • By virtue of chord-length density function from the field of statistical physics, this paper introduced a quantitative approach to estimate the distribution of cement paste thickness between aggregates in concrete. Dynamics mixing method based on molecular dynamics was employed to generate one model structure, then image analysis algorithm was used to obtain the distribution of thickness of cement paste in model structure for the purpose of verification. By comparison of probability density curves and cumulative probability curves of the cement paste thickness among neighboring aggregates, it is found that the theoretical results are consistent with the simulation. Furthermore, for the model mortar and concrete mixtures with practical volume fraction of Fuller-type aggregate, this analytical formula was employed to predict the influence of aggregate volume fraction and aggregate fineness. And evolution of its mean values were also investigated with the variation of volume fraction of aggregate as well as the fineness of aggregates in model mortars and concretes.

추계학적 위너 확률과정을 이용한 경사제의 실시간 피해경로 추적과 잔류수명 추정 (Estimation of Residual Useful Life and Tracking of Real-time Damage Paths of Rubble-Mound Breakwaters Using Stochastic Wiener Process)

  • 이철응
    • 한국해안·해양공학회논문집
    • /
    • 제32권3호
    • /
    • pp.147-160
    • /
    • 2020
  • 추계학적 WP을 이용하여 불확실성을 고려하면서 항만 구조물의 실시간에 따른 피해와 파괴확률 그리고 잔류수명을 해석할 수 있는 모형을 수립하였다. 과거부터 현재까지의 피해상태와 미래에 발생될 피해 진행 과정에 포함되는 불확실성을 고려할 수 있는 추계학적 확률모형이다. 피해경로를 추적할 수 있으며 누적피해의 밀도함수도 산정하여 파괴확률을 추정할 수 있다. 또한 구조물의 잔류수명에 대한 밀도함수도 구할 수 있다. 최소자승법과 최우도법을 이용하여 모형의 파라미터를 추정할 수 있는 방법도 제시하였다. 검증을 위해 시간의 진행에 따른 누적피해와 잔류수명에 대한 밀도함수를 산정하고 해석하였는데 이론적인 결과가 MCS 기법의 수치적인 결과와 매우 잘 일치하였다. 또한 내구수명이나 잔류수명에 대한 밀도함수의 거동과 MTTF와 MRL이 정량적으로 잘 일치하였다. 한편 본 연구에 수립된 모형을 경사제에 적용하기 위하여 피복재 피해에 대한 수리모형 실험자료를 활용하여 모형의 파라미터들을 추정하였다. 시간의 진행에 따른 피복재 누적피해의 밀도함수와 파괴확률을 산정하였는데 MCS의 결과와 이론적인 결과가 매우 잘 일치하였다. 경과시간이 클수록 밀도함수가 우측으로 이동하면서 불확실성이 커지면서 파괴확률이 급격하게 증가하였다. 또한 재령에 따른 잔류수명의 거동특성을 해석하였는데, 잔류수명의 분포함수에서 좌측보다는 우측 꼬리 부분이 길게 형성되어 MRL이 급격하게 감소하는 경향을 보였다. 이는 경사제 피복재의 피해가 완만하게 증가하는 현상을 반영한 것으로 판단된다. 특히 재령과 내구수명 그리고 잔류수명의 관계를 해석하였는데, 재령이 오래될수록 재령과 MRL의 합이 MTTF와 큰 차이를 보이고 있다. 이는 재령이 증가하면 잔류수명의 평균인 MRL이 불확실성에 의하여 급격히 감소하기 때문이다.

A Heuristic Approach for Approximating the ARL of the CUSUM Chart

  • Kim, Byung-Chun;Park, Chang-Soon;Park, Young-Hee;Lee, Jae-Heon
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
    • /
    • 제23권1호
    • /
    • pp.89-102
    • /
    • 1994
  • A new method for approximating the average run length (ARL) of cumulative sum (CUSUM) chart is proposed. This method uses the conditional expectation for the test statistic before the stopping time and its asymptotic conditional density function. The values obtained by this method are compared with some other methods in normal and exponential case.

  • PDF

Empirical modelling approaches to modelling failures

  • Baik, Jaiwook;Jo, Jinnam
    • International Journal of Reliability and Applications
    • /
    • 제14권2호
    • /
    • pp.107-114
    • /
    • 2013
  • Modelling of failures is an important element of reliability modelling. Empirical modelling approach suitable for complex item is explored in this paper. First step of the empirical modelling approach is to plot hazard function, density function, Weibull probability plot as well as cumulative intensity function to see which model fits best for the given data. Next step of the empirical modelling approach is select appropriate model for the data and fit the parametric model accordingly and estimate the parameters.

  • PDF

차량 번호판 검출을 위한 자동차 개인 저장 장치 이미지 향상 알고리즘 (An image enhancement algorithm for detecting the license plate region using the image of the car personal recorder)

  • 윤종호;최명렬;이상선
    • 한국산학기술학회논문지
    • /
    • 제17권3호
    • /
    • pp.1-8
    • /
    • 2016
  • 본 논문은 블랙박스 적용을 위한 적응형 히스토그램 스트레칭 알고리즘을 제안하였다. 본 알고리즘은 자동차 개인 저장장치 영상을 이용한 차량 번호판 검출을 위한 전처리 단계로 사용하였다. 제안 방식은 확률밀도함수(PDF: Probability Density Function)와 누적분포함수(CDF: Cumulative Density) 이용하여 영상의 밝기 분포도를 분석하였다. 이 두 함수는 일정한 간격을 두고 샘플링 한 영상을 사용하여 구하였다. 두 함수를 이용하여 영상의 특성을 분석하여, 특정 인자를 검출하였다. 검출된 인자를 분포도에 따라 각각 다른 스트레칭을 수행하였다. 알고리즘 검증은 촬영 된 자동차 개인 저장장치 영상을 사용하였다. 기존 알고리즘 비교는 시각적인 평가, 히스토그램 분포, 표준 및 표준 편차 값을 분석하였다. 또한 시뮬레이션 결과를 자동차 번호판 인식 알고리즘에 적용하여 번호판 인식율을 분석하였다. 기존 알고리즘보다 열화 현상이 적게 나타났고, 향상된 콘트라스트 값을 통하여, 차량 번호판 검출에서 기존 알고리즘보다 정확한 위치가 나타났다.