• 경영과학
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• 제21권3호
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• pp.129-147
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• 2004

Scenario analysis for strategic planning, unlike most forecasting methods, provides a qualitative, contextual description of how the present will evolve into the future. It normally tries to identify a set of possible futures, each of whose occurrence is plausible but not assured. In this paper, we propose the use of Cross Impact Analysis(CIA) approach for scenario generation about the future of Korean IT environments. In this analysis, we classified IT environments into technical, social, legislative, and economic factor. And various variables and events were defined in each factor. From the survey collected from IT related experts, we acquire probability of occurrence and compatibility estimates of every possible pairs of events as input. Then 2 phase analysis is used in order to choice events with high probability of occurrence and generate scenario. Finally, after CIA using Monte Carlo simulation, a detail scenario for 2010 was developed. These scenario drawn from the CIA approach is a result considered by cross impacts of various events.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제42권2호
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• pp.35-48
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• 2017

As the technology convergence paradigm emerges, the need for "CIA techniques" to analyze the mutual effects of technology is increasing. However, since the CIA input parameter estimation is difficult, the present study suggests a "CIA input parameter setting model" to alleviate the difficulty of CIA input parameter estimation. This paper is focused on the difference of measurement difficulty by each scale which expert's estimation behavior was defined as measurement activity quantifying the judgment of future technology. Therefore, this model is designed to estimate the input variable as a sequence or isometric scale that is relatively easy to measure, and then converts it into a probability value. The input parameter setting model of the CIA technique consists of three sub-models : 'probability value derivation model', 'influence estimation model', and 'impact value calculation model', in order to develop a series of models the Thurstone V model, Regression Analysis, etc has been used.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 2008년도 추계학술대회 및 정기총회
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• pp.8-23
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• 2008

The purpose of this study is to develop a Cross Impact System Alternatives Tree(CISAT) model necessary for selecting the interdependent R&D planning system alternatives. This model modifies System Alternatives Tree(SAT) model developed by Kwon et al.. The SAT model is composed of several functions necessary for the achievement of a final goal and several subsystems for satisfying each function. In case that the relationship of technology alternatives is interdependent, this model overlooked a relative importance derived from occurrence or nonoccurrence of the technology alternatives in the future time varience. However, a complex evaluation process within the ballot system is another disadvantage of the SAT. To solve such problems, the Cross Impact Analysis(CIA) model is applied in the SAT model so as to consider the cross impact among interdependent system alternatives.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제8권2호
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• pp.9-25
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• 1983

A new approach to cross impact analysis using probabilistic system dynamics(PSD) is presented in this article. The previous models using PSD consist of system dynamics models as a basis which are interacting with cross impact analysis (CIA) sectors. In this model, the policy impact analysis part is separated from the CIA sectors and is constituted an independent subsectors of the model. The policy subsector is designed to separate the policy impact and provide feedback both to the system dynamics base model and cross impact analysis sectors. The new technique is applied to the forecasting, assessment and policy formulation of air pollution in Seoul metropolitan area in 2,000. The results show that the new tool consider policy effects more effectively than the previous PSD models.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 2008년도 추계학술대회 및 정기총회
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• pp.444-447
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• 2008

This study is intended to develop a improved version of Cross Impact Analysis Model based on Scaling Theory. In developing the model, we applied the scale transformation technique and regression technique to existing CIA model. Improved CIA model is composed of two sub-models: 'model for impact value measurement,' and 'model for impact value conversion'. We applied a technique which measures data by ordinal scale and then transforms them into interval scale and ratio scale data to CIA model. The accuracy of forecasting and the usability of CIA application have been improved.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제27권1호
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• pp.1-17
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• 2002

The objective of this paper is to develop a new priority setting algorithm that considers the cross-impact of the future technology alternatives and that satisfies the final goal of the technology management through multi-hierarchy evaluation criteria. By combining the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) model, which is a well-known priority setting model, and Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) model, which is a technological forecasting method that considers cross-impact among R&D Items, we developed an Integrated Cross-Impact Hierarchical (CIH) model, which sets the priority by considering technological forecasting and technology dependency simultaneously. A step-by-step numerical example of the model developed here is presented as backup of its practicality.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 2000년도 추계학술대회 및 정기총회
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• pp.259-262
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• 2000

The Cross-impact Hierarchy Process (CHP), an extended model of the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) which is linked to Cross Impact Analysis(CIA), is a powerful decision making tool to assist in the ranking of large number of dependent technological alternatives. In this paper, we will describe an application of the CHP to the aerospace industry. We here conducted a questionnaire survey for S company that is one of the representative aerospace companies in Korea. A questionnaire was designed to obtain both the priority with dependence (the CHP priority) and the priority with independence (the AHP priority) in order to compare the priority derived by each of two methods. The hierarchy in this case study is concerned with priority setting for R&D area to ensure dependent aerospace design technology of the company, The result shows that there exists the difference hard to neglect between the final priorities gained by two methods.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 2001년도 추계학술대회 논문집
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• pp.242-245
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• 2001

This study is aimed to design a priority setting algorithm necessary for evaluating and selecting interdependent R&D planning system alternatives. In case that the relationship of technology alternatives is interdependent, a relative importance as occurrence or nonoccurrence of the technology alternatives viewed from the future time varies. So, we are subject to design the evaluation process considering a cross- impact of future technology alternatives. Thus, we apply the cross impact analysis (CIA) model to consider the cross-impact among interdependent system alternatives. Also, the analytic hierarchy process(AHP) model is applied to determine the priority of alternatives by taking the pair-wise comparison among factors.

• 한국항공운항학회지
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• 제19권4호
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• pp.74-82
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• 2011

In order to enhance the aviation industry in Korea, many strategies have been published by some researchers as well as the government. However, considering the constrained conditions in real, since the ranking of their importance has not determined yet, they are difficult to be implemented by decision makers. Therefore, in terms of their demand for deciding the significance of strategies, the evaluation model of this paper was developed. In this study, the Cross-impact Hierarchy Process(CHP), an linked model of both the Analytic Hierarchy Process(AHP) and Cross Impact Analysis(CIA), was selected as the best model. That is because the strategies are not independent from each other, and one strategy can affect the others depending on its realization, which can be considered in CHP. To achieve our objective, at first, the strategies were categorized and arranged according to the evaluation structure. Secondly, the parameters such as conditional probability and weights were estimated from the survey conducted by 16 experts in the aviation field. Lastly, the result of the assessment were discussed, and further studies were suggested.

• 기술혁신연구
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• 제9권1호
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• pp.95-120
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• 2001

One of the systematic attempts for technological forecasting is Delphi Method that externalizes and manipulates unformalized experts opinion in a particular problem or subject. It has, however, a critical shortcoming that it can not reflect the degree of interaction that exists among forecast events or subject. Gordon and Hayward(1969) criticize that when the forecast events are strongly interrelated, a totally unrealistic consensus may result. They proposed a new forecasting method that considers the interaction of events, that is, Cross Impact Analysis (CIA). A number of related models have been developed after them. In this study, we examine a variety of research results related to CIA obtained by literature survey and propose the limitation and future research direction. This analysis would be expected to help us to create a strategic scenario on future technology development at the government and firm level.