Journal of Technology Innovation (기술혁신연구)
- Volume 9 Issue 1
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- Pages.95-120
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- 2001
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- 1598-1347(pISSN)
기술예측에의 적용을 위한 상호영향분석법의 이론적 고찰 : 한계와 연구방향
Abstract
One of the systematic attempts for technological forecasting is Delphi Method that externalizes and manipulates unformalized experts opinion in a particular problem or subject. It has, however, a critical shortcoming that it can not reflect the degree of interaction that exists among forecast events or subject. Gordon and Hayward(1969) criticize that when the forecast events are strongly interrelated, a totally unrealistic consensus may result. They proposed a new forecasting method that considers the interaction of events, that is, Cross Impact Analysis (CIA). A number of related models have been developed after them. In this study, we examine a variety of research results related to CIA obtained by literature survey and propose the limitation and future research direction. This analysis would be expected to help us to create a strategic scenario on future technology development at the government and firm level.
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