• Title/Summary/Keyword: Count model

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A Development of Traffic Accident Prediction Model at Rural Unsignalized Intersections Using Random Parameter (Random Parameter를 이용한 지방부 무신호교차로 교통사고 예측모형개발)

  • Lee, Kyu-Hoon;Oh, Ju-Taek;Park, Jeong-Soon
    • The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems
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    • v.16 no.4
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    • pp.64-75
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    • 2017
  • Previous count models using fixed parameter can not consider the unobserved heterogeneity, as the standard error of the count value is underestimated, excessive t-values are derived thereby reducing the reliability of the model. Also, the study of unsignalized intersections are inadequate because of the difficulty of collecting data and statistical limits for accurate analytical processes compared to the signalized intersections. The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors affecting traffic accidents by constructing the count model using random parameters, and it aimed to distinguish between existing studies based on the rural unsignalized intersections. As a result of the analysis, 7 variables were presented as significant variables, and 2 variables(presence of crosswalk, speed limit) were presented as random parameter.

Estimating the Economic Value of Skin Scuba Marine Tourism: Focused on Jeju Island (스킨스쿠버 해양어촌관광의 경제적 가치 추정: 제주도를 대상으로)

  • Kang, Seok-Kyu
    • The Journal of Fisheries Business Administration
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    • v.47 no.1
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    • pp.21-29
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    • 2016
  • The purpose of this study is to estimate the economic value of skin scuba marine tourism activity in Jeju Island. The economic value is estimated as consumer surplus using count data models including the truncated Poisson model and the truncated negative binominal distribution model. This study collects the effective 369 questionnaires from skin scuba marine tourists through three times in Jeju Island. The truncated Poisson model was statistically more suitable and valid than other models. The truncated Poisson model was applied to estimate consumer surplus as economic value from skin scuba in Jeju Island. A consumer surplus value per trip was estimated as about 4,081,633 won. The annual economic value from skin scuba marine tourism activity was estimated as 8,428,571 won in Jeju Island. Consequently, skin scuba marine tourism activity has a very large economic value in Jeju Island.

The Effects of Sentiment and Readability on Useful Votes for Customer Reviews with Count Type Review Usefulness Index (온라인 리뷰의 감성과 독해 용이성이 리뷰 유용성에 미치는 영향: 가산형 리뷰 유용성 정보 활용)

  • Cruz, Ruth Angelie;Lee, Hong Joo
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.43-61
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    • 2016
  • Customer reviews help potential customers make purchasing decisions. However, the prevalence of reviews on websites push the customer to sift through them and change the focus from a mere search to identifying which of the available reviews are valuable and useful for the purchasing decision at hand. To identify useful reviews, websites have developed different mechanisms to give customers options when evaluating existing reviews. Websites allow users to rate the usefulness of a customer review as helpful or not. Amazon.com uses a ratio-type helpfulness, while Yelp.com uses a count-type usefulness index. This usefulness index provides helpful reviews to future potential purchasers. This study investigated the effects of sentiment and readability on useful votes for customer reviews. Similar studies on the relationship between sentiment and readability have focused on the ratio-type usefulness index utilized by websites such as Amazon.com. In this study, Yelp.com's count-type usefulness index for restaurant reviews was used to investigate the relationship between sentiment/readability and usefulness votes. Yelp.com's online customer reviews for stores in the beverage and food categories were used for the analysis. In total, 170,294 reviews containing information on a store's reputation and popularity were used. The control variables were the review length, store reputation, and popularity; the independent variables were the sentiment and readability, while the dependent variable was the number of helpful votes. The review rating is the moderating variable for the review sentiment and readability. The length is the number of characters in a review. The popularity is the number of reviews for a store, and the reputation is the general average rating of all reviews for a store. The readability of a review was calculated with the Coleman-Liau index. The sentiment is a positivity score for the review as calculated by SentiWordNet. The review rating is a preference score selected from 1 to 5 (stars) by the review author. The dependent variable (i.e., usefulness votes) used in this study is a count variable. Therefore, the Poisson regression model, which is commonly used to account for the discrete and nonnegative nature of count data, was applied in the analyses. The increase in helpful votes was assumed to follow a Poisson distribution. Because the Poisson model assumes an equal mean and variance and the data were over-dispersed, a negative binomial distribution model that allows for over-dispersion of the count variable was used for the estimation. Zero-inflated negative binomial regression was used to model count variables with excessive zeros and over-dispersed count outcome variables. With this model, the excess zeros were assumed to be generated through a separate process from the count values and therefore should be modeled as independently as possible. The results showed that positive sentiment had a negative effect on gaining useful votes for positive reviews but no significant effect on negative reviews. Poor readability had a negative effect on gaining useful votes and was not moderated by the review star ratings. These findings yield considerable managerial implications. The results are helpful for online websites when analyzing their review guidelines and identifying useful reviews for their business. Based on this study, positive reviews are not necessarily helpful; therefore, restaurants should consider which type of positive review is helpful for their business. Second, this study is beneficial for businesses and website designers in creating review mechanisms to know which type of reviews to highlight on their websites and which type of reviews can be beneficial to the business. Moreover, this study highlights the review systems employed by websites to allow their customers to post rating reviews.

Effects of Ojeoksan extracted by varied extraction method in HA-induced model of blood stasis (煎湯方法의 變化에 의한 五積散 물추출액이 Hydrocortisone acetate로 유발한 瘀血病態에 미치는 효과)

  • Seo, Bu-Il;Kim, Mi-Ryeo;Park, Ji-Ha;Ji, Seon-Yeong
    • The Journal of Korean Medicine Ophthalmology and Otolaryngology and Dermatology
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    • v.14 no.1
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    • pp.182-189
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    • 2001
  • This study was performed to compare the effect of Ojeoksan which have extracted by varied extractor(press extractor : PE, pressless extractor : PLE, short acting extractor : SE) on model of blood stasis in rats, Except for the normal group, hydrocortisone acetate(HA;25mg/kg in ethanol. IM) to induce experimental blood stasis model for 1 weeks and each extract of Ojeaksan was administrated after 1hr following HA injection for 1week. We measured the hematocrit, the platelet count, the prothrombin time, levels of fibrinogen in rats' blood, The sample Ⅰ(Ojeoksan extracted by PE) group showed significant decrease of hematocrit. prothrombin time and significant increase of the platelet count, levels of fibrinogen in comparison with those of the control group, The sample Ⅱ(Ojeaksan) extracted by PLE) group showed significant decrease of hematocrit and significant increase of levels of fibrinogen in comparison with those of the control group. Administration of the sample Ⅲ(Ojeaksan extracted by SE) group showed significant decrease of hematocrit and significant increase of the platelet count, levels of fibrinogen in comparison with those of the control group.

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Analysis of Traffic Accident by Circular Intersection Type in Korea Using Count Data Model (가산자료 모형을 이용한 국내 원형교차로 유형별 교통사고 분석)

  • Kim, Tae Yang;Lee, Min Yeong;Park, Byung Ho
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Safety
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    • v.32 no.5
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    • pp.129-134
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    • 2017
  • This study aims to develop the traffic accident models by circular intersection type using count data model. The number of accident, the number of fatal and injured persons(FSI), and EPDO are calculated from the traffic accident data of TAAS. The circular intersection accident models are developed through Poisson and negative binomial regression analysis. The main results of this study are as follows. First, the null hypotheses that there are differences in the number of traffic accidents, FSI and EPDO by type of circular intersections are rejected. Second, the scale of intersection(median, large), number of approach road, mean width and length of exit road, area of the circulating roadway and central island are selected as factors influencing the number of traffic accidents, FSI and EPDO in rotary. Third, the scale of intersection(median), guide signs(limited speed, direction, roundabout), number of approach road, entry angle, area of the intersection and central island are adopted as factors influencing the number of traffic accidents, FSI and EPDO in roundabout. Finally, transferring from rotary to roundabout could be expected to make the accident decrease.

A Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial regression model based on Pólya-Gamma latent variables with an application to pharmaceutical data (폴랴-감마 잠재변수에 기반한 베이지안 영과잉 음이항 회귀모형: 약학 자료에의 응용)

  • Seo, Gi Tae;Hwang, Beom Seuk
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.35 no.2
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    • pp.311-325
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    • 2022
  • For count responses, the situation of excess zeros often occurs in various research fields. Zero-inflated model is a common choice for modeling such count data. Bayesian inference for the zero-inflated model has long been recognized as a hard problem because the form of conditional posterior distribution is not in closed form. Recently, however, Pillow and Scott (2012) and Polson et al. (2013) proposed a Pólya-Gamma data-augmentation strategy for logistic and negative binomial models, facilitating Bayesian inference for the zero-inflated model. We apply Bayesian zero-inflated negative binomial regression model to longitudinal pharmaceutical data which have been previously analyzed by Min and Agresti (2005). To facilitate posterior sampling for longitudinal zero-inflated model, we use the Pólya-Gamma data-augmentation strategy.

Overdispersion in count data - a review (가산자료(count data)의 과산포 검색: 일반화 과정)

  • 김병수;오경주;박철용
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.8 no.2
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    • pp.147-161
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    • 1995
  • The primary objective of this paper is to review parametric models and test statistics related to overdspersion of count data. Poisson or binomial assumption often fails to explain overdispersion. We reviewed real examples of overdispersion in count data that occurred in toxicological or teratological experiments. We also reviewed several models that were suggested for implementing experiments. We also reviewed several models that were suggested for implementing the extra-binomial variation or hyper-Poisson variability, and we noted how these models were generalized and further developed. The approaches that have been suggested for the overdispersion fall into two broad categories. The one is to develop a parametric model for it, and the other is to assume a particular relationship between the variance and the mean of the response variable and to derive a score test staistics for detecting the overdispersion. Recently, Dean(1992) derived a general score test statistics for detecting overdispersion from the exponential family.

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Demand Analysis for Community-based Tourism Using Count Data Models (가산자료모형을 이용한 지역사회기반형 관광수요 분석)

  • Yun, Hee-Jeong
    • The Korean Journal of Community Living Science
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    • v.22 no.2
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    • pp.247-255
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    • 2011
  • This study analyzed the demand for a community-based tourism site using a poisson model, a negative binominal model, a truncated poisson model and a truncated negative binominal model as count data models. For these reasons, questionnaire surveys were conducted into 5 community-based tourism sites in Chuncheon city with 406 tourists, and was analyzed using the STATA program. The fitness levels of four models were significant(p=0.0000) using a likelihood ratio test. The study results suggest that the demand of community-based tourism sites for visiting tourists was influenced by a pre-visiting experience, recognition of sustainable tourism, visitation of downtown, purchase of souvenir or farm produce, conversation with regional residents, regional harmony, preservation of natural resources and sex within the poisson and truncated poisson models. However, the variables of visitation of downtown, preservation of natural resources and sex were not significant within the negative binominal model and the visitation of downtown and preservation of natural resources were not significant within the truncated negative binominal model. The results of the visiting demand of community-based tourism sites can provide information for sustainable regional development strategies.

A Comparative Study on Estimation Models for the Value of Access to a Natural Recreation Site: Focusing on the Estuary Area of Yeongsan River (자연휴양지 방문편익 추정모형의 비교 연구 - 영산강 하구를 대상으로)

  • Shin, Youngchul
    • Environmental and Resource Economics Review
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    • v.21 no.4
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    • pp.981-998
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, several count data model of travel cost recreation demand with Poisson and negative binominal specification are applied to estimate the value of access to the estuary area of Yeongsan river from visitor survey data. The results show that the negative binomial model that accounts for truncation and overdispersion provides the better goodness-of-fit, and therefore the value per visit(i.e. consumer surplus) is 89,350 won for resident of Jeolla province and 432,526 won for that of other provinces. If don't correct overdispersion by relying on Poisson estimates, the consumer surplus will be underestimated. Whereas the consumer surplus will be overestimated unless correct truncation by using estimates of untruncated models. As a result, the truncated negative binomial model should be applied to estimate the travel demand and the consumer surplus per visit by using survey data from single site visitors.

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Pre-treatment Elevated Platelet Count Associates with HER2 Overexpression and Prognosis in Patients with Breast Cancer

  • Gu, Mei-Ling;Yuan, Cai-Jun;Liu, Xiao-Mei;Zhou, Yi-Chao;Di, Shu-Huan;Sun, Fei-Fei;Qu, Quan-Ying
    • Asian Pacific Journal of Cancer Prevention
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    • v.16 no.13
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    • pp.5537-5540
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    • 2015
  • Purpose: To research the association between pre-treatment elevated platelet count and clinicopathologic characteristics in breast cancer (BC), as well as explore the relationship between pre-treatment elevated platelet count and HER2 status and prognosis of BC patients. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort of BC patients who were newly diagnosed or treated by surgery only and had pathological detection results and platelet values in the Department of Oncology, the First Affiliated Hospital of Liaoning Medical College were enrolled from 1/1/2008 until 31/12/2009, and followed up until 31/12/2014. Age, thrombocyte parameters before chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy, immunohistochemical (IHM) indexes, and regional lymph node (LN) involvement and progression-free survival (PFS) were recorded. Results: A total of 447 eligible subjects were included in this research. As we analyzed, for HER2, positive and negative, the incidence rates of elevated platelet count were 25.8% and 14.7% (P<0.05). In the Cox proportional hazards model both variables were independent risk factors for BC (for HER2, OR, 0.592, 95% confidence interval, CI, 0.355 to 0.985, P=0.044;f or PLT, OR, 0.998, 95% CI, 0.996 to 1.000, P=0.042). For ER, PR, Ki67 and LN involvement, the differences were not statistically significant (P>0.05). Conclusions: In this research, pre-treatment elevated level of platelet count demostrated a significantrelationship with HER2 amplification/overexpression, and both variables significantly influenced the prognosis of BC. However, elevated platelet count did not exhibit any association with ER, PR, Ki67 and LN involvement.