The Journal of The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems (한국ITS학회 논문지)

The Korea Institute of Intelligent Transport Systems (한국ITS학회)
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A Development of Traffic Accident Prediction Model at Rural Unsignalized Intersections Using Random Parameter

Random Parameter를 이용한 지방부 무신호교차로 교통사고 예측모형개발

  • 이규훈 (한국교통대학교 도시.교통공학과) ;
  • 오주택 (한국교통대학교 도시.교통공학과) ;
  • 박정순 (도로교통공단 교통과학연구원)
  • Received : 2017.06.30
  • Accepted : 2017.07.20
  • Published : 2017.08.31
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Abstract

Previous count models using fixed parameter can not consider the unobserved heterogeneity, as the standard error of the count value is underestimated, excessive t-values are derived thereby reducing the reliability of the model. Also, the study of unsignalized intersections are inadequate because of the difficulty of collecting data and statistical limits for accurate analytical processes compared to the signalized intersections. The purpose of this study is to analyze the factors affecting traffic accidents by constructing the count model using random parameters, and it aimed to distinguish between existing studies based on the rural unsignalized intersections. As a result of the analysis, 7 variables were presented as significant variables, and 2 variables(presence of crosswalk, speed limit) were presented as random parameter.

기존의 고정모수를 이용한 가산모형은 관측되지 않은 이질성을 고려할 수 없으며, 계수값의 표준오차가 과소추정됨에 따라 과도한 t-값이 도출되어 모형의 신뢰성이 감소하게 된다. 또한 무신호교차로의 경우 자료 수집의 어려움과 정확한 분석과정의 통계적 한계로 신호교차로에 비해 연구가 미비한 실정이다. 본 연구에서는 Random Parameter를 이용한 가산모형을 구축하여 교통사고에 영향을 미치는 요인들을 분석하고자 하였으며, 지방부 무신호교차로를 대상으로 하여 기존 연구들과의 차별성을 두고자 하였다. 분석 결과, 총 7개의 변수가 유의한 변수로 나타났고, 이 중 2개의 변수(횡단보도 유무, 제한 속도)가 확률적 변수로 나타났다.

Keywords

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