• Journal of the Korea Society for Simulation
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• v.26 no.2
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• pp.41-49
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• 2017

In the acquisition program, the conceptual design is the most important step toward specifying the military objectives, establishing requirements and determining future developmental directions, of a target system. However, if both the requirements and directions are incorrectly set due to the lack of development experiences and literature backgrounds in the target systems, such as future ground combat vehicles, it may become a major risk in the future design phases and the entire acquisition program. In order to correct these errors in the future phases, time, effort and cost are required. Therefore, it is necessary to reduce the errors that occur in the initial stages to effectively acquire the future ground combat vehicles. This paper describes the initial design method for verifying the requirements and the developmental directions and estimating the system performance at the conceptual design through the system-level physical modeling and simulation (M&S) and the target system performance analysis. The system-level physical M&S use cutting-edge design tools, model-based designs and geometric-based designs. The system performance estimation is driven from the results of the system-level physical M&S and the specialized system analysis software.

• Journal of Korean Tunnelling and Underground Space Association
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.137-153
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• 2019

Estimating tunnel construction time and costs are the most fundamental part of a tunnel project planning, which has been generally assessed on a deterministic basis until now. In this paper, excavation cycle time was investigated for two road tunnels and one subway tunnel, and the results were compared with the Standard of Construction Estimate (SE), which is made for the estimation of construction time and cost in a design stage. The results show that the difference in cycle time between SE and actual cycle time is 50%, 7% and 31% respectively for the three tunnels, which means that SE does not reflect practical operation time. The major reasons of the difference are skilled level of tunneling workers, the change of operation sequences for more effective operations, much more complicated working atmosphere in a tunnel than the assumption of SE etc. Finally, even though the results can not be generalized since investigated tunnels are only 3, but it is thought that SE needs to be upgraded into the model able to consider quite common situations through additional tunnel investigation and studies in the future.

• Journal of Radiation Protection and Research
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• v.33 no.4
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• pp.127-134
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• 2008

Potential economic impact of a hypothetical severe accident at a nuclear power plant(Uljin units 3/4) was estimated by applying the Delphi method, which is based on the expert judgements and opinions, in the process of quantifying uncertain factors. For the purpose of this study, it is assumed that the radioactive plume directs the inland direction. Since the economic risk can be divided into direct costs and indirect effects and more uncertainties are involved in the latter, the direct costs were estimated first and the indirect effects were then estimated by applying a weighting factor to the direct cost. The Delphi method however subjects to risk of distortion or discrimination of variables because of the human behavior pattern. A mathematical approach based on the Bayesian inferences was employed for data processing to improve the Delphi results. For this task, a model for data processing was developed. One-dimensional Monte Carlo Analysis was applied to get a distribution of values of the weighting factor. The mean and median values of the weighting factor for the indirect effects appeared to be 2.59 and 2.08, respectively. These values are higher than the value suggested by OECD/NEA, 1.25. Some factors such as small territory and public attitude sensitive to radiation could affect the judgement of panel. Then the parameters of the model for estimating the direct costs were classified as U- and V-types, and two-dimensional Monte Carlo analysis was applied to quantify the overall economic risk. The resulting median of the overall economic risk was about 3.9% of the gross domestic products(GDP) of Korea in 2006. When the cost of electricity loss, the highest direct cost, was not taken into account, the overall economic risk was reduced to 2.2% of GDP. This assessment can be used as a reference for justifying the radiological emergency planning and preparedness.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.22 no.1 s.72
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• pp.43-62
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• 2004

Conventionally the estimation method of the origin-destination Matrix has been developed by implementing the expansion of sampled data obtained from roadside interview and household travel survey. In the survey process, the bigger the sample size is, the higher the level of limitation, due to taking time for an error test for a cost and a time. Estimating the O-D matrix from observed traffic count data has been applied as methods of over-coming this limitation, and a gradient model is known as one of the most popular techniques. However, in case of the gradient model, although it may be capable of minimizing the error between the observed and estimated traffic volumes, a prior O-D matrix structure cannot maintained exactly. That is to say, unwanted changes may be occurred. For this reason, this study adopts a conjugate gradient algorithm to take into account two factors: estimation of the O-D matrix from the conjugate gradient algorithm while reflecting the prior O-D matrix structure maintained. This development of the O-D matrix estimation model is to minimize the error between observed and estimated traffic volumes. This study validates the model using the simple network, and then applies it to a large scale network. There are several findings through the tests. First, as the consequence of consistency, it is apparent that the upper level of this model plays a key role by the internal relationship with lower level. Secondly, as the respect of estimation precision, the estimation error is lied within the tolerance interval. Furthermore, the structure of the estimated O-D matrix has not changed too much, and even still has conserved some attributes.

• The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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• v.16 no.11
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• pp.421-433
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• 2016

Recently, although the interest in transfer and transactions of intangible assets increases, there is no valuation model to objectively assess market value of knowledge and information contents such as electronic databases and the necessity of researches associated is brought up. Therefore, the present study proposes valuation models so as to utilize as objective reference information in the contents market of intangible assets, by assessing the market value of science and technology information contents including patents, academic papers and reports. First, we look into application methods of calculating cash flows by content types out of key variables which has been applied to the present technology valuation, and in case of patents we propose valuation methods based on concepts which are applied in the present technology valuation. Next, in case of both papers and reports, in order to reflect the characteristics of these contents we newly propose qualitative valuation methods which are adjustable based on both technology innovation and market demands indices while estimating the economic life cycle of the technology, and also present the input cost-based calculation method as the calculation method of cash flows. Throughout the study, we could establish frameworks by technology fields and business models applicable such as copyright licensing, transactions of individual science and technology information contents, and expect that more objective and reasonable assessment of content values is accessible.

• Journal of the Korea Convergence Society
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• v.6 no.6
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• pp.221-229
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• 2015

This study aims to identify and analyze the main factors that determine the properties and buying behavior in the premium bottled select and analyze the degree of impact on the relevant variables are premium water demand. When applied to the truncated negative binomial model to derive the study results: The results of estimating the variables that affect the demand for premium mineral water are as follows. Premium bottled water demand of this group my purchases with a choice between buying behavior variables are significantly higher than the relative population. To also do a good ingredient water, it appeared to be on a statistically significant positive effect on the demand for the more groups you purchase a premium bottled water for the purpose of receiving special feeling, just buy purpose is called to drinking water does not significantly affect to be analyzed. Among demographic characteristics it showed that demand for premium bottled water purchases are significantly higher in women than in men, professional / clerical job, such as the military, college graduates were more consumer research as significant in comparison to the relative population. Taste and package design factors of premium bottled mineral water among the select attribute factors are having a significant positive impact on the purchasing demand, local conditions and cost factors have been estimated to be insignificant.

• Journal of the Korea Institute of Building Construction
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• v.10 no.3
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• pp.121-128
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• 2010

This study aims to make improvements to the standard estimation process used to estimate reasonable costs for construction work, and to suggest a work crew based estimation using a new cost estimation model. In addition, work crew shift combination and construction process were systematically organized in order to improve the estimation technique and the construction capability of the cement liquid waterproofing work for apartment buildings. In addition, in terms of manpower and productivity, analyses were performed on the cement liquid waterproofing work for apartment buildings with net areas between $84-85m^2$ and $125-184m^2$, and the results were then compared with those calculated using the conventional work-crew based estimation method. Through this study, when the results of this study and those calculated by the conventional method were compared, for apartments with the net area of $84-85m^2$, the differences between specialists were shown to be 1.91 times to 2.13 times on average, while they were 8.82 times to 9.52 times between normal workers on average. For apartments with the net area of $125-184m^2$, the differences betweenspecialists were shownto be 1.89 times to 2.07 times on average, and 8.57 times to 9.38 times on average between normal workers.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.20 no.1
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• pp.35-45
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• 2018

PURPOSES : This study examines the performance changes of road networks according to the strength of a disaster, and proposes a method for estimating the quantitative resilience according to the road-network performance changes and damage scale. This study also selected high-influence road sections, according to disasters targeting the road network, and aimed to analyze their hazard resilience from the network aspect through a scenario analysis of the damage recovery after a disaster occurred. METHODS : The analysis was conducted targeting Sejong City in South Korea. The disaster situation was set up using the TransCAD and VISSIM traffic-simulation software. First, the study analyzed how road-network damage changed the user's travel pattern and travel time, and how it affected the complete network. Secondly, the functional aspects of the road networks were analyzed using quantitative resilience. Finally, based on the road-network performance change and resilience, priority-management road sections were selected. RESULTS : According to the analysis results, when a road section has relatively low connectivity and low traffic, its effect on the complete network is insignificant. Moreover, certain road sections with relatively high importance can suffer a performance loss from major damage, for e.g., sections where bridges, tunnels, or underground roads are located, roads where no bypasses exist or they exist far from the concerned road, including entrances and exits to suburban areas. Relatively important roads have the potential to significantly degrade the network performance when a disaster occurs. Because of the high risk of delays or isolation, they may lead to secondary damage. Thus, it is necessary to manage the roads to maintain their performance. CONCLUSIONS : As a baseline study to establish measures for traffic prevention, this study considered the performance of a road network, selected high-influence road sections within the road network, and analyzed the quantitative resilience of the road network according to scenarios. The road users' passage-pattern changes were analyzed through simulation analysis using the User Equilibrium model. Based on the analysis results, the resilience in each scenario was examined and compared. Sections where a road's performance loss had a significant influence on the network were targeted. The study results were judged to become basic research data for establishing response plans to restore the original functions and performance of the destroyed and damage road networks, and for selecting maintenance priorities.

• Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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• v.27 no.4
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• pp.31-40
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• 2009

Some road charges toll to finance the cost or to manage traffic congestion. With a growth of PPI projects, toll roads would be increase continuously. Tolls have a considerable influence on user's route choice, and sometimes can affect to the departure time and even to mode choice. For modelling toll roads, user's WTP or VOT has an important role and it is general that VOT is equivalent to the wages of workers. The current way of modelling technique yields various toll price elasticity from low to high. When there exist few alternative routes, unrealistic result that all traffic assigned to some shortest path may occur. The toll price elasticity can be influenced by alternative route and congestion level, but some result shows nearly unrealistic patterns. The model to forecast more realistic toll road demand is very essential for estimating toll revenue, choice of optimal toll level & collecting location and establishing toll charge strategy. This paper reviewed some literatures about toll road modelling and tested case study about the assignment technique with different VOT. The case study shows that using different VOT yields more realistic result than the use of single VOT.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.39 no.5 s.166
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• pp.405-415
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• 2006

The deposition of sewer solids during dry weather in combined sewer systems results in a loss of flow capacity that may restrict flow and cause a local flooding and enhanced solids deposition. Sewer solid accumulations in drainage systems also create the 'first-flush' phenomena during wet weather runoff periods. In order to solve these problems, measurement of these loadings for a given sewer system for extended period is needed but this task is very difficult and extremely expensive. In this study, generalized procedures for estimating sewer sediment solid during dry weather in combined sewer systems developed by the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency were applied in a drainage system in Korea. As result, the appropriate equation can be selected and applied according to the available data. However, the estimated solid sediment shows considerable difference between methods which classified by model and estimation methods of variable. The estimated values using equations (1) $\sim$ (4) are greater than that of equations (5) $\sim$ (9) and intermediate models show greater values than elaborate or simplest models. The comparison between simulated and measured solid deposition is difficult due to the absent of measurement data, but this estimation method can be used usefully for the management of sewer solid with reduction of cost and effort if the measurement is carried out and the equation is adjusted according to the actual drainage systems in Korea.