• Title/Summary/Keyword: Correlated error

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Photovoltaic Generation Forecasting Using Weather Forecast and Predictive Sunshine and Radiation (일기 예보와 예측 일사 및 일조를 이용한 태양광 발전 예측)

  • Shin, Dong-Ha;Park, Jun-Ho;Kim, Chang-Bok
    • Journal of Advanced Navigation Technology
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    • v.21 no.6
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    • pp.643-650
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    • 2017
  • Photovoltaic generation which has unlimited energy sources are very intermittent because they depend on the weather. Therefore, it is necessary to get accurate generation prediction with reducing the uncertainty of photovoltaic generation and improvement of the economics. The Meteorological Agency predicts weather factors for three days, but doesn't predict the sunshine and solar radiation that are most correlated with the prediction of photovoltaic generation. In this study, we predict sunshine and solar radiation using weather, precipitation, wind direction, wind speed, humidity, and cloudiness which is forecasted for three days at Meteorological Agency. The photovoltaic generation forecasting model is proposed by using predicted solar radiation and sunshine. As a result, the proposed model showed better results in the error rate indexes such as MAE, RMSE, and MAPE than the model that predicts photovoltaic generation without radiation and sunshine. In addition, DNN showed a lower error rate index than using SVM, which is a type of machine learning.

Speech Recognition Accuracy Measure using Deep Neural Network for Effective Evaluation of Speech Recognition Performance (효과적인 음성 인식 평가를 위한 심층 신경망 기반의 음성 인식 성능 지표)

  • Ji, Seung-eun;Kim, Wooil
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.21 no.12
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    • pp.2291-2297
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    • 2017
  • This paper describe to extract speech measure algorithm for evaluating a speech database, and presents generating method of a speech quality measure using DNN(Deep Neural Network). In our previous study, to produce an effective speech quality measure, we propose a combination of various speech measures which are highly correlated with WER(Word Error Rate). The new combination of various types of speech quality measures in this study is more effective to predict the speech recognition performance compared to each speech measure alone. In this paper, we describe the method of extracting measure using DNN, and we change one of the combined measure from GMM(Gaussican Mixture Model) score used in the previous study to DNN score. The combination with DNN score shows a higher correlation with WER compared to the combination with GMM score.

A Study on the Price Discovery of Lean Hog Futures (돈육선물의 가격발견에 관한 연구)

  • Byun, Youngtae
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.23 no.2
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    • pp.126-134
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    • 2017
  • The purpose of this paper was to examine the dynamics of the price discovery function between lean hog futures and spot markets using the vector error correction model (VECM). The researcher also investigated the existence of the long-run equilibrium relationship between the lean hog futures and spot markets. Daily time series data of lean hog futures and spot observed in the Korean market during the period from 5 Jan. 2011 to 28 Dec. 2012 were analyzed. To examine the price discovery, this study employed the Gonzalo and Granger's (1995) information ratio and Hasbrock's (1995) information ratio measurement method. The significant findings of the study are summarized as follows. First, lean hog futures and spot market are significantly correlated. Secondly, the lean hog future market plays a more dominant role in price discovery than the spot market. Finally, price discovery measures based on the VECM suggested that the lean hog future market plays a more dominant role in price discovery than the lean hog spot market. This is the important systematic empirical work to find the relationship between the lean hog future and spot market.

On the prediction of unconfined compressive strength of silty soil stabilized with bottom ash, jute and steel fibers via artificial intelligence

  • Gullu, Hamza;Fedakar, Halil ibrahim
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.12 no.3
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    • pp.441-464
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    • 2017
  • The determination of the mixture parameters of stabilization has become a great concern in geotechnical applications. This paper presents an effort about the application of artificial intelligence (AI) techniques including radial basis neural network (RBNN), multi-layer perceptrons (MLP), generalized regression neural network (GRNN) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in order to predict the unconfined compressive strength (UCS) of silty soil stabilized with bottom ash (BA), jute fiber (JF) and steel fiber (SF) under different freeze-thaw cycles (FTC). The dosages of the stabilizers and number of freeze-thaw cycles were employed as input (predictor) variables and the UCS values as output variable. For understanding the dominant parameter of the predictor variables on the UCS of stabilized soil, a sensitivity analysis has also been performed. The performance measures of root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE) and determination coefficient ($R^2$) were used for the evaluations of the prediction accuracy and applicability of the employed models. The results indicate that the predictions due to all AI techniques employed are significantly correlated with the measured UCS ($p{\leq}0.05$). They also perform better predictions than nonlinear regression (NLR) in terms of the performance measures. It is found from the model performances that RBNN approach within AI techniques yields the highest satisfactory results (RMSE = 55.4 kPa, MAE = 45.1 kPa, and $R^2=0.988$). The sensitivity analysis demonstrates that the JF inclusion within the input predictors is the most effective parameter on the UCS responses, followed by FTC.

Motion Vector Recovery Scheme for H.264/AVC (H.264/AVC을 위한 움직임 벡터 복원 방법)

  • Son, Nam-Rye
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.8 no.5
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    • pp.29-37
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    • 2008
  • To transmit video bit stream over low bandwidth such as wireless channel, high compression algorithm like H.264 codec is exploited. In transmitting high compressed video bit-stream over low bandwidth, packet loss causes severe degradation in image quality. In this paper, a new algorithm for recovery of missing or erroneous motion vector is proposed. Considering that the missing or erroneous motion vectors in blocks are closely correlated with those of neighboring blocks. Motion vector of neighboring blocks are clustered according to average linkage algorithm clustering and a representative value for each cluster is determined to obtain the candidate motion vector sets. As a result, simulation results show that the proposed method dramatically improves processing time compared to existing H.264/AVC. Also the proposed method is similar to existing H.264/AVC in terms of visual quality.

Validity and Reliability of Korean Version of the Revised Stress Appraisal Measure (RSAM) (한국어판 수정된 스트레스 평가 도구(Revised Stress Appraisal Measure)의 타당도와 신뢰도)

  • Kim, Jeong Sun;Kim, Kye-Ha;Kang, Hyuncheol
    • The Journal of the Korea Contents Association
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.290-302
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    • 2015
  • The study purpose was to test the validity and reliability of the Korean version of the Revised Stress Appraisal Measure (RSAM) to assess stress appraisal in undergraduate students. Internal consistency reliability, construct and criterion validity were calculated using IBM SPSS Statistics 21 and AMOS 21 program. Survey data were collected from a convenience sample of 296 undergraduate students enrolled in five universities in G city and C area, South Korea. The Korean version of RSAM categorized into 5 factors explaining 68.4% of the total variance. The model of five subscales was validated by confirmatory factor analysis (p<.001, Goodness of Fit Index, Adjusted Goodness of Fit Index, Normed Fit Index, Comparative Fit Index >.08, Root Mean Square Error of Approximation=.056). In criterion validity, the scores for the scale were significantly correlated with the Perceived Stress Scale-Korean. Cronbach's alpha coefficient for the 19 items was .73~.89. The Korean RSAM showed satisfactory construct and criterion validity and reliability. Thus it may be an appropriate instrument for measuring stress appraisal in Korean university students.

Sensitivity Analysis of Wind Resource Micrositing at the Antarctic King Sejong Station (남극 세종기지에서의 풍력자원 국소배치 민감도 분석)

  • Kim, Seok-Woo;Kim, Hyun-Goo
    • Journal of the Korean Solar Energy Society
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.1-9
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    • 2007
  • Sensitivity analysis of wind resource micrositing has been performed through the application case at the Antarctic King Sejong station with the most representative micrositing softwares: WAsP, WindSim and Meteodyn WT. The wind data obtained from two met-masts separated 625m were applied as a climatology input condition of micro-scale wind mapping. A tower shading effect on the met-mast installed 20m apart from the warehouse has been assessed by the CFD software Fluent and confirmed a negligible influence on wind speed measurement. Theoretically, micro-scale wind maps generated by the two met-data located within the same wind system and strongly correlated meteor-statistically should be identical if nothing influenced on wind prediction but orography. They, however, show discrepancies due to nonlinear effects induced by surrounding complex terrain. From the comparison of sensitivity analysis, Meteodyn WT employing 1-equation turbulence model showed 68% higher RMSE error of wind speed prediction than that of WindSim using the ${\kappa}-{\epsilon}$ turbulence model, while a linear-theoretical model WAsP showed 21% higher error. Consequently, the CFD model WindSim would predict wind field over complex terrain more reliable and less sensitive to climatology input data than other micrositing models. The auto-validation method proposed in this paper and the evaluation result of the micrositing softwares would be anticipated a good reference of wind resource assessments in complex terrain.

Accuracy of an equation for estimating age from mandibular third molar development in a Thai population

  • Verochana, Karune;Prapayasatok, Sangsom;Janhom, Apirum;Mahasantipiya, Phattaranant May;Korwanich, Narumanas
    • Imaging Science in Dentistry
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    • v.46 no.1
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    • pp.1-7
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    • 2016
  • Purpose: This study assessed the accuracy of age estimates produced by a regression equation derived from lower third molar development in a Thai population. Materials and Methods: The first part of this study relied on measurements taken from panoramic radiographs of 614 Thai patients aged from 9 to 20. The stage of lower left and right third molar development was observed in each radiograph and a modified Gat score was assigned. Linear regression on this data produced the following equation: Y=9.309+1.673 mG+0.303S (Y=age; mG=modified Gat score; S=sex). In the second part of this study, the predictive accuracy of this equation was evaluated using data from a second set of panoramic radiographs (539 Thai subjects, 9 to 24 years old). Each subject's age was estimated using the above equation and compared against age calculated from a provided date of birth. Estimated and known age data were analyzed using the Pearson correlation coefficient and descriptive statistics. Results: Ages estimated from lower left and lower right third molar development stage were significantly correlated with the known ages (r=0.818, 0.808, respectively, $P{\leq}0.01$). 50% of age estimates in the second part of the study fell within a range of error of ${\pm}1year$, while 75% fell within a range of error of ${\pm}2years$. The study found that the equation tends to estimate age accurately when individuals are 9 to 20 years of age. Conclusion: The equation can be used for age estimation for Thai populations when the individuals are 9 to 20 years of age.

Isobaric Vapor-Liquid Equilibrium of 1-propanol and Benzene System at Subatmospheric Pressures (일정압력하에서 1-propanol/benzene 계의 기-액 상평형)

  • Rho, Seon-Gyun;Kang, Choon-Hyoung
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.56 no.2
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    • pp.222-228
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    • 2018
  • Benzene is one of the most widely used basic materials in the petrochemical industry. Generally, benzene exists as a mixture with alcohols rather than as a pure substance. Further, the alcohols-added mixtures usually exhibit an azeotropic composition. In this context, knowledge of the phase equilibrium behavior of the mixture is essential for its separation and purification. In this study, the vapor-liquid equilibrium data were measured in favor of a recirculating VLE apparatus under constant pressure for the 1 - propanol / benzene system. The measured vapor - liquid equilibrium data were also correlated by using the UNIQUAC and WILSON models and the thermodynamic consistency test based on the Gibbs/Duhem equation was followed. The results of the phase equilibrium experiment revealed RMSEs (Root Mean Square Error) and AADs (Average Absolute Deviation) of less than 0.05 for both models, indicating a good agreement between the experimental value and the calculated value. The results of the thermodynamic consistency test also confirmed through the residual term within ${\pm}0.2$.

Sparse Signal Recovery with Parallel Orthogonal Matching Pursuit and Its Performances (병렬OMP 기법을 통한 성긴신호 복원과 그 성능)

  • Park, Jeonghong;Jung, Bang Chul;Kim, Jong Min;Ban, Tae Won
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.17 no.8
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    • pp.1784-1789
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, parallel orthogonal matching pursuit (POMP) is proposed to supplement the orthogonal matching pursuit (OMP) which has been widely used as a greedy algorithm for sparse signal recovery. The process of POMP is simple but effective: (1) multiple indexes maximally correlated with the observation vector are chosen at the firest iteration, (2) the conventional OMP process is carried out in parallel for each selected index, (3) the index set which yields the minimum residual is selected for reconstructing the original sparse signal. Empirical simulations show that POMP outperforms than the existing sparse signal recovery algorithms in terms of exact recovery ratio (ERR) for sparse pattern and mean-squared error (MSE) between the estimated signal and the original signal.