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Development Strategy for New Climate Change Scenarios based on RCP (온실가스 시나리오 RCP에 대한 새로운 기후변화 시나리오 개발 전략)

  • Baek, Hee-Jeong;Cho, ChunHo;Kwon, Won-Tae;Kim, Seong-Kyoun;Cho, Joo-Young;Kim, Yeongsin
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.2 no.1
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    • pp.55-68
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    • 2011
  • The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change(IPCC) has identified the causes of climate change and come up with measures to address it at the global level. Its key component of the work involves developing and assessing future climate change scenarios. The IPCC Expert Meeting in September 2007 identified a new greenhouse gas concentration scenario "Representative Concentration Pathway(RCP)" and established the framework and development schedules for Climate Modeling (CM), Integrated Assessment Modeling(IAM), Impact Adaptation Vulnerability(IAV) community for the fifth IPCC Assessment Reports while 130 researchers and users took part in. The CM community at the IPCC Expert Meeting in September 2008, agreed on a new set of coordinated climate model experiments, the phase five of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project(CMIP5), which consists of more than 30 standardized experiment protocols for the shortterm and long-term time scales, in order to enhance understanding on climate change for the IPCC AR5 and to develop climate change scenarios and to address major issues raised at the IPCC AR4. Since early 2009, fourteen countries including the Korea have been carrying out CMIP5-related projects. Withe increasing interest on climate change, in 2009 the COdinated Regional Downscaling EXperiment(CORDEX) has been launched to generate regional and local level information on climate change. The National Institute of Meteorological Research(NIMR) under the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA) has contributed to the IPCC AR4 by developing climate change scenarios based on IPCC SRES using ECHO-G and embarked on crafting national scenarios for climate change as well as RCP-based global ones by engaging in international projects such as CMIP5 and CORDEX. NIMR/KMA will make a contribution to drawing the IPCC AR5 and will develop national climate change scenarios reflecting geographical factors, local climate characteristics and user needs and provide them to national IAV and IAM communites to assess future regional climate impacts and take action.

A Study on Vulnerability Assessment and Prioritizing Sectors to Support Adaptation Strategy to Climate Change - Case Study of Gangwon Province - (기후변화 적응대책 수립 지원을 위한 취약성 평가 및 부문별 우선순위 선정 방안 연구 - 강원도 사례를 중심으로 -)

  • Oh, Suhyun;Lee, Woo-Kyun;Yoo, Seongjin;Byun, Jungyeon;Park, Sunmin;Kwak, Hanbin;Cui, Guishan;Kim, Moonil;Jung, Raesun;Nam, Kijun;Shin, Donghee
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.3 no.4
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    • pp.245-257
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    • 2012
  • Vulnerability assessment has been required for establish climate adaptation plan to prevent damage from climate change. In this study we assessed vulnerability with 1 km resolution and determined which sectors have the highest priority in each municipality of Gangwon province based on the result of vulnerability assessment. All sectors of vulnerability assessment are composed of three criteria; sensitivity, exposure and adaptation capacity. And suitable indicators of each sector were selected and spatial data set was prepared using GIS. Priority of vulnerability was classified with the degree of vulnerability in present and variation in vulnerability between present and future. The results of vulnerability assessment were different among municipalities due to the contribution of indicators. Present and future trends in vulnerability showed similar results but high vulnerable area was predicted to expand in the future. In addition increase in temperature led whole area to be more vulnerable generally. The result of prioritizing sectors of vulnerability indicated the most considerable sectors within a municipality. Also, the municipalities which have similar geographic, climatic and social conditions tended to be classified as the same priority class. The method of vulnerability assessment and determining priorities suggested in this study could be used to support decision makers to establish adaptation plan of local area.

Evaluation of Dental Hygienist Job Validity according to Judgment Standard of Medical Practice in Medical Law (의료행위 기준에 따른 치과위생사 직무 타당도 평가)

  • Bae, Soo-Myoung;Shin, Sun-Jung;Lee, Hyo-Jin;Shin, Bo-Mi
    • Journal of dental hygiene science
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.357-366
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    • 2018
  • The purpose of this study was to evaluate the validity of dental hygienist job according to judgment standard of medical practice in medical law. In this study, we conducted a self-administered questionnaire survey to evaluate the validity of dental hygienist job for 12 professors of dental college in Gangneung-Wonju National University from November 10 to 20, 2017. We investigated whether the dental hygienist job conforms to the three criteria of medical practice such as disease prevention and treatment, patient care, and health hazard. The response rates were scored and classified into four categories according to the final score. As a result of this study, dental hygienist job are classified into four categories according to judgment standard of medical practice. The higher the level of the category, the higher the degree of difficulty, and the higher the level of expertise and skills required. More than 50% of respondents answered that measuring the gingival pocket, bleeding on probing, professional tooth cleaning, oral health education, counseling after dental treatment are all three criteria for medical treatment. And these were classified into Level 4 group which requires the difficulty and expertise in the final score 4.3. It is necessary to develop and utilize standardized guidelines on the level of knowledge, education, and qualification standards required for dental practice in order to effectively allocate work among the dental personnel while ensuring the health rights of patients in the dental clinic field in Korea. In addition, there is a need to evaluate the various aspects of cost effectiveness, dental health service productivity, and health promotion contribution to dental hygienist jobs, And based on this evidence, it is necessary to continue to expand and adjust the dental hygienist job and to reorganize the dental workforce system.

Characteristics of Indoor Particulate Matter Concentrations by Size at an Apartment House During Dusty-Day (황사 발생시 아파트 실내에서 미세먼지 크기별 농도 특성)

  • Joo, Sang-Woo;Ji, Jun-Ho
    • Particle and aerosol research
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.37-44
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    • 2019
  • It is recommended for the public to stay at home and to close the doors and windows when a high-particulate-matter environment such as a yellow sand event occurs outside. However, there are lack of empirical studies describing how much outdoor PM infiltrates into a closed house and how much indoor PM an inhabitant is exposed to during the period. In this study, the $PM_{10}$ and $PM_{2.5}$ were measured at the kitchen in an apartment house by an optical particle counter for 3 days including a yellow sand event. The outdoor PMs and the outdoor wind speeds were referred from surrounding weather stations. We analyzed the penetration of $PM_{10-2.5}$ and $PM_{2.5}$ at the test house against the outdoor wind speed supposed corresponding to the change of air exchange rate. In addition, the effect of an indoor activity on change in the indoor PM was investigated. In result, the indoor $PM_{10-2.5}$ was very low even a yellow sand event occurred outside; rather, a contribution of indoor activities to increase in $PM_{10-2.5}$ was higher. In contrast, the indoor $PM_{2.5}$ fluctuated following the outdoor $PM_{2.5}$ trend at high wind speeds or remained almost constant at low wind speed.

Analysis of Research Trends of 'Word of Mouth (WoM)' through Main Path and Word Co-occurrence Network (주경로 분석과 연관어 네트워크 분석을 통한 '구전(WoM)' 관련 연구동향 분석)

  • Shin, Hyunbo;Kim, Hea-Jin
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.179-200
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    • 2019
  • Word-of-mouth (WoM) is defined by consumer activities that share information concerning consumption. WoM activities have long been recognized as important in corporate marketing processes and have received much attention, especially in the marketing field. Recently, according to the development of the Internet, the way in which people exchange information in online news and online communities has been expanded, and WoM is diversified in terms of word of mouth, score, rating, and liking. Social media makes online users easy access to information and online WoM is considered a key source of information. Although various studies on WoM have been preceded by this phenomenon, there is no meta-analysis study that comprehensively analyzes them. This study proposed a method to extract major researches by applying text mining techniques and to grasp the main issues of researches in order to find the trend of WoM research using scholarly big data. To this end, a total of 4389 documents were collected by the keyword 'Word-of-mouth' from 1941 to 2018 in Scopus (www.scopus.com), a citation database, and the data were refined through preprocessing such as English morphological analysis, stopwords removal, and noun extraction. To carry out this study, we adopted main path analysis (MPA) and word co-occurrence network analysis. MPA detects key researches and is used to track the development trajectory of academic field, and presents the research trend from a macro perspective. For this, we constructed a citation network based on the collected data. The node means a document and the link means a citation relation in citation network. We then detected the key-route main path by applying SPC (Search Path Count) weights. As a result, the main path composed of 30 documents extracted from a citation network. The main path was able to confirm the change of the academic area which was developing along with the change of the times reflecting the industrial change such as various industrial groups. The results of MPA revealed that WoM research was distinguished by five periods: (1) establishment of aspects and critical elements of WoM, (2) relationship analysis between WoM variables, (3) beginning of researches of online WoM, (4) relationship analysis between WoM and purchase, and (5) broadening of topics. It was found that changes within the industry was reflected in the results such as online development and social media. Very recent studies showed that the topics and approaches related WoM were being diversified to circumstantial changes. However, the results showed that even though WoM was used in diverse fields, the main stream of the researches of WoM from the start to the end, was related to marketing and figuring out the influential factors that proliferate WoM. By applying word co-occurrence network analysis, the research trend is presented from a microscopic point of view. Word co-occurrence network was constructed to analyze the relationship between keywords and social network analysis (SNA) was utilized. We divided the data into three periods to investigate the periodic changes and trends in discussion of WoM. SNA showed that Period 1 (1941~2008) consisted of clusters regarding relationship, source, and consumers. Period 2 (2009~2013) contained clusters of satisfaction, community, social networks, review, and internet. Clusters of period 3 (2014~2018) involved satisfaction, medium, review, and interview. The periodic changes of clusters showed transition from offline to online WoM. Media of WoM have become an important factor in spreading the words. This study conducted a quantitative meta-analysis based on scholarly big data regarding WoM. The main contribution of this study is that it provides a micro perspective on the research trend of WoM as well as the macro perspective. The limitation of this study is that the citation network constructed in this study is a network based on the direct citation relation of the collected documents for MPA.

Predicting stock movements based on financial news with systematic group identification (시스템적인 군집 확인과 뉴스를 이용한 주가 예측)

  • Seong, NohYoon;Nam, Kihwan
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.25 no.3
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2019
  • Because stock price forecasting is an important issue both academically and practically, research in stock price prediction has been actively conducted. The stock price forecasting research is classified into using structured data and using unstructured data. With structured data such as historical stock price and financial statements, past studies usually used technical analysis approach and fundamental analysis. In the big data era, the amount of information has rapidly increased, and the artificial intelligence methodology that can find meaning by quantifying string information, which is an unstructured data that takes up a large amount of information, has developed rapidly. With these developments, many attempts with unstructured data are being made to predict stock prices through online news by applying text mining to stock price forecasts. The stock price prediction methodology adopted in many papers is to forecast stock prices with the news of the target companies to be forecasted. However, according to previous research, not only news of a target company affects its stock price, but news of companies that are related to the company can also affect the stock price. However, finding a highly relevant company is not easy because of the market-wide impact and random signs. Thus, existing studies have found highly relevant companies based primarily on pre-determined international industry classification standards. However, according to recent research, global industry classification standard has different homogeneity within the sectors, and it leads to a limitation that forecasting stock prices by taking them all together without considering only relevant companies can adversely affect predictive performance. To overcome the limitation, we first used random matrix theory with text mining for stock prediction. Wherever the dimension of data is large, the classical limit theorems are no longer suitable, because the statistical efficiency will be reduced. Therefore, a simple correlation analysis in the financial market does not mean the true correlation. To solve the issue, we adopt random matrix theory, which is mainly used in econophysics, to remove market-wide effects and random signals and find a true correlation between companies. With the true correlation, we perform cluster analysis to find relevant companies. Also, based on the clustering analysis, we used multiple kernel learning algorithm, which is an ensemble of support vector machine to incorporate the effects of the target firm and its relevant firms simultaneously. Each kernel was assigned to predict stock prices with features of financial news of the target firm and its relevant firms. The results of this study are as follows. The results of this paper are as follows. (1) Following the existing research flow, we confirmed that it is an effective way to forecast stock prices using news from relevant companies. (2) When looking for a relevant company, looking for it in the wrong way can lower AI prediction performance. (3) The proposed approach with random matrix theory shows better performance than previous studies if cluster analysis is performed based on the true correlation by removing market-wide effects and random signals. The contribution of this study is as follows. First, this study shows that random matrix theory, which is used mainly in economic physics, can be combined with artificial intelligence to produce good methodologies. This suggests that it is important not only to develop AI algorithms but also to adopt physics theory. This extends the existing research that presented the methodology by integrating artificial intelligence with complex system theory through transfer entropy. Second, this study stressed that finding the right companies in the stock market is an important issue. This suggests that it is not only important to study artificial intelligence algorithms, but how to theoretically adjust the input values. Third, we confirmed that firms classified as Global Industrial Classification Standard (GICS) might have low relevance and suggested it is necessary to theoretically define the relevance rather than simply finding it in the GICS.

The food and nutrient intakes from daily processed food in Korean adults: based on the 6th Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey data (2013~2015) (한국 성인의 가공식품으로부터의 식품 및 영양소 섭취량 평가 : 제 6기 (2013~2015) 국민건강영양조사를 바탕으로)

  • Ha, Ae Wha;Kim, Woo Kyoung
    • Journal of Nutrition and Health
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    • v.52 no.5
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    • pp.422-434
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    • 2019
  • Purpose: The consumption of processed foods has recently been increasing due to changes in the living environment. The purpose of this study was to identify the contribution of processed food to the nutrient intake of adult Koreans. Methods: A total of 15,760 adult people in the $6^{th}$ National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (2013 ~ 2015) were included in this study. According to the Korea Food and Drug Administration's classification criteria for processed foods, the 24 hour dietary recall data of the subjects were classified as processed food or natural food. The processed food intake, nutrient intake and major processed food sources by food groups were analyzed. Results: Men consumed more processed foods than did the women. Consumption of processed foods decreased with age, but it increased with the education level and the income level. The total daily processed food intake accounted for 68.1% of the total food intake. The food groups with high processed food intake were beverage, vegetables, cereals and grain products, fruits, and milk and dairy products in this order. The top food source of each food groups were beer, kimchi, bread, processed apple products, and milk. After adjusting for age, gender, and energy intake, all the nutrient intakes and percentage of dietary reference intakes for Koreans, except carbohydrates, were significantly higher in processed foods than in natural foods. The sodium intake from the processed food was 96.3% of total daily sodium intake. The intakes of nutrients from processed foods, excluding vitamins C, dietary fiber, iron, and vitamin A, were higher in men than in women. The intake of sodium from processed foods was highest for people of 30 ~ 49 years of age, and the intake of sodium from processed foods decreased for people over 50. Conclusion: Korean adults consumed more processed food than the natural food, consuming more calories and most of the nutrients from the processed food overall total daily intakes. The intake of processed foods is expected to further increase in the future, and nutritional education and research on the ingestion and selection of healthy processed foods are necessary.

A Study on the Development of Assessment Index for Catastrophic Incident Warning Sign at Refinery and Pertrochemical Plants (정유 및 석유화학플랜트 중대사고 전조신호 평가지표 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Yun, Yong Jin;Park, Dal Jae
    • Korean Chemical Engineering Research
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    • v.57 no.5
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    • pp.637-651
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    • 2019
  • In the event of a major accident such as an explosion in a refinery or a petrochemical plant, it has caused a serious loss of life and property and has had a great impact on the insurance market. In the case of catastrophic incidents occurring in process industries such as refinery and petrochemical plants, only the proximate causes of loss have been drawn and studied from inspectors or claims adjustors responsible for claims of property insurers, incident cause investigators, and national forensic service workers. However, it has not been done well for conducting root cause analysis (RCA) and identifying the factors that contributed to the failure and establishing preventive measures before leading to chemical plant's catastrophic incidents. In this study, the criteria of warning signs on CCPS catastrophic incident waning sign self-assessment tool which was derived through the RCA method and the contribution factor analysis method using the swiss cheese model principle has been reviewed first. Secondly, in order to determine the major incident warning signs in an actual chemical plant, 614 recommendations which have been issued during last the 17 years by loss control engineers of global reinsurers were analyzed. Finally, in order to facilitate the assessment index for catastrophic incident warning signs, the criteria for the catastrophic incident warning sign index at chemical plants were grouped by type and classified into upper category and lower category. Then, a catastrophic incident warning sign index for a chemical plant was developed using the weighted values of each category derived by applying the analytic hierarchy process (pairwise comparison method) through a questionnaire answered by relevant experts of the chemical plant. It is expected that the final 'assessment index for catastrophic incident warning signs' can be utilized by the refinery and petrochemical plant's internal as well as external auditors to assess vulnerability levels related to incident warning signs, and identify the elements of incident warning signs that need to be tracked and managed to prevent the occurrence of serious incidents in the future.

A Study on a Paradigm Shift to Archives of everyday life (일상 아카이브(Archives of everyday life)로의 패러다임 전환을 위한 소론)

  • Kwak, Kun-Hong
    • The Korean Journal of Archival Studies
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    • no.29
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    • pp.3-33
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    • 2011
  • No one can deny the harsh reality that archival culture has not yet been permeated extensively into all the spheres of our society. Only fragmented records in fixed areas are in the custody of archives. Records to build a living memory for the history of our present are hard to find or remain minimal, if anywhere. Above all, there are few records in archives concerned with the everyday life of common people. No consideration has not been made about the reason for being of archives, not to mention of the strategy for establishing the archival culture. Accordingly, a paradigm shift is required for archives directly connected with the everyday life of common people. Archives of everyday life means one which interprets the behaviour and experiences of individuals(groups) within the context of society through categorizing everyday life of common people into the lesser fields. And archives of everyday life also means an organization or facility/place which documents the everyday life of individuals(groups), and collect, appraise, select and preserve the records from the view point of humanities for the reconstruction of history from the bottom. Archives of everyday life is an attempt to reconstruct memory and records on behaviour by and torment of the common people in the modern history of Korea, on the basis of which we can seek out the oppressive structure in the daily life of capitalism. Archival community should discuss about what is the meaning of records in the age of democracy unlike that of authoritarian era. We also need to have definite direction on the what kinds of records are to be created and appraised from the standpoint of common people. We are to make it possible to create Zeitgeist in the tackle of records and archives' content. on this kind of attempt archival community could make a practical contribution forward a more advanced democracy, resulted in having an opportunity to change the essence of archives.

A Study on Interpreting People's Enjoyment under Cherry Blossom in Modern Times (벚꽃을 통해 본 근대 행락문화의 해석)

  • Kim, Hai Gyoung
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Traditional Landscape Architecture
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    • v.29 no.4
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    • pp.124-136
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    • 2011
  • In landscape architecture, plants play an important role in realizing the intention of the architect and user- behavior as well as an ecology and appearance of the space for them. However, it is true that many researches have focused on ecological characteristics of plants, their cultivation environment and symbolic meanings in traditional terms, while relatively few for the analysis of the aspects of each period through plants. For this, cherry trees that we often see around are selected and their introduction, propagation, development and symbolism from the view of chronicle are studied and the results are followings; Firstly, three-year seedlings of 1,500 pieces of cherry tree from Osaka and Tokyo were planted for the first time in Oieseongdae, Namsan Park, Seoul. Since then, they had been widely planted at traditional sites, modern parks, newly-constructed roads for street trees, and for this, the Japanese Government-General of Chosun had actively supported by its direct cultivation and selling of cherry trees. The spread of cherry trees planted raised the question of whether or not Prunus yedoensis is originated from Jeju Island. Secondly, such massive and artificial planting of them had become attractions over the time and mass media at that time also had actively promoted it. And such trend made the day and night picnic under the cherry blossoms one of the most representative cultures of enjoying spring in Seoul. Thirdly, although general people enjoyed cherry blossoms, but they had dual view and attitude for cherry trees, which were well expressed in their use of them: for example, cherry blossoms, aeng and sakura were used altogether for same meaning, but night aeng or night picnic under cherry blossoms were especially used instead of yojakura when mentioning just pleasure, which meant some saw night enjoying cherry blossoms a low culture. Fourth, symbolic space of Chosun had been transformed into the space for enjoyment and consumption. Anyone who paid entrance fee could enjoy performance of revugirl, cinema and entertainment along with enjoying cherry blossoms. The still-existing strict differentiation of enjoyment culture by social status, class and ethnicity was dismantled from that trend and brought about a kind of disorder. From this, we could find that cherry blossoms had made a great contribution to the change of traditional enjoyment culture over the Japanese colonial period and become a popular spring enjoyment.