• 대한전기학회논문지:전력기술부문A
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• 제52권7호
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• pp.363-370
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• 2003

This paper presents the analysis of the load transfer capacity and study of conductor size for variable contingencies in distribution systems. The operation capacity of feeders was changed to improve operation efficiency in KEPCO, considerations for contingencies are still based on the previous capacity. In order to cope with the changes such as operation capacity, it is necessary to study whether the present "contingency support criteria" is reasonable or not, also to confirm the whether the present criteria should be improved or not. We analyze the load transfer capacity and conductor size on a distribution system for contingency levels such as the substation-level, bank-level, feeder-level, and zone-level.one-level.

• 대한전기학회논문지
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• 제43권2호
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• pp.197-205
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• 1994

Security of a power system refers to its robustness relative to a set of imminent disturbances (contingencies) during operation. The socially optimal solution for the actuall level of generation/consumption has been well-known spot pricing at shot-run marginal cost. The main disadvantage of this approach arises because serious contingencies occur quite infrequently. Thus by establishing contractual obligations for contingency offering before an actual operation time through decision feedback we can obtain socially optimal level of system security. Under probabilistic precontract pricing the operating point is established at equal incremental cost of the expected short-run and collapse cost of each participant. Rates for power generation/consumption and for an offer to use during a contingency, as well as information on the probability distribution of contingency need for each participant, are derived so that individual optimization will lead to the socially optimal solution in which system security is optimized and the aggregate benefit is maxmized.

• 방사성폐기물학회지
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• 제20권4호
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• pp.541-550
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• 2022

When decommissioning nuclear power plant (NPP), the first task performed is cost estimation. This is an important task in terms of securing adequate decommissioning funds and managing the schedule. Therefore, many countries and institutions are conducting continuous research and also developing and using many programs for cost estimation. However, the cost estimated for decommissioning an NPP typically differs from the actual cost incurred in its decommissioning. This is caused by insufficient experience in decommissioning NPPs or lack of decommissioning cost data. This uncertainty in cost estimation can be in general compensated for by applying a contingency. However, reflecting an appropriate standard for the contingency is also difficult. Therefore, in this study, data analysis was conducted based on the contingency guideline suggested by each institution and the actual cost of decommissioning the NPP. Subsequently, TLG Service, Inc.'s process, which recently suggested specific decommissioning costs, was matched with ISDC (International Structure for Decommissioning Costing)'s work breakdown structure (WBS). Based on the matching result, the guideline for applying the contingency for ISDC's WBS Level 1 were presented. This study will be helpful in cost estimation by applying appropriate contingency guidelines in countries or institutions that have no experience in decommissioning NPPs.

• 한국건축시공학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국건축시공학회 2018년도 춘계 학술논문 발표대회
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• pp.72-73
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• 2018

The accuracy of contingency estimation plays an important role for dealing with the uncertainty of the financial success of construction project. Its' estimation may be used for various purposes such as schedule control, emergency resolve, and quality expense, etc. This paper presents a contingency estimation method which is schedule control specific. The method 1) implements stochastic EVMS, 2) detects a specific timing for schedule compression, 3) identifies an optimal strategy for shortening planned schedule, 4) finds a probability density function (PDF) of project cost overrun, and 5) estimates the optimal contingency cost based on the level of confidence. The method facilitates expeditious decisions involved in project budgeting. The validity of the method is confirmed by performing test case.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• 제15권3호
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• pp.403-409
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• 2008

In this paper we show that the peak of the type I error rate of the Oochran-Armitage trend test could be greater than the nominal level when $2\;{\times}\;C$ contingency tables obtained from two multinomial distributions are extremely unbalanced. This result justifies the use of the exact Cochran-Armitage trend test in extremely unbalanced $2\;{\times}\;C$ contingency tables.

• 국제학술발표논문집
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• The 5th International Conference on Construction Engineering and Project Management
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• pp.338-343
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• 2013

Integrated Project Delivery (IPD) as a delivery method fully capitalizes on an integrated project team that takes advantage of the knowledge of all team members to maximize project outcomes. IPD is currently the highest form of collaboration available because all three core project stakeholders, owner, designer and contractor, are aligned to the same purpose. Compared with traditional project delivery approaches such as Design-Bid-Build (DBB), Design-Build (DB), and CM at-Risk, IPD is distinguished in that it eliminates the adversarial nature of the business by encouraging transparency, open communication, honesty and collaboration among all project stakeholders. The team appropriately shares the project risk and reward. Sharing reward is easy, while it is hard to fairly share a failure. So the compensation structure and the contingency in IPD are very different from those in traditional delivery methods and they are expected to encourage motivation, inspiration and creativity of all project stakeholders to achieve project success. This paper investigates the compensation structure in IPD and provides a method to determine the proper level of contingency allocation to reduce the risk of cost overrun. It also proposes a method in which contingency could be used as a functional monetary incentive when established to produce the desired level of collaboration in IPD. Based on the compensation structure scenario discovered, a probabilistic contingency calculation model was created by evaluating the random nature of changes and various risk drivers. The model can be used by the IPD team to forecast the probability of the cost overrun and equip the IPD team with confidence to really enjoy the benefits of collaborative team work.

• 한국건설관리학회논문집
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• 제20권5호
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• pp.125-136
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• 2019

본 연구는 국내 대형 건설 기업이 수행한 124건의 해외사업에 대해 입찰 전 예측 리스크, 수주 후 실제 리스크, 예비비 반영률, 원가 상승률 등을 조사하였다. 이를 기반으로 플랜트, 건축, 토목 공종별 예측 리스크 수준, 실제 리스크 수준, 입찰 전 예측 리스크와 예비비 간 관계, 실제 리스크와 원가 상승률의 상관성을 분석하여 다음과 같은 결론을 얻었다. 첫째, 플랜트와 토목 사업은 건축 사업에 비해 예측 리스크와 실제 리스크 수준이 높았다. 특히, 플랜트와 토목 사업에서는 국가 리스크가 가장 높았으나 건축사업에서는 프로젝트 리스크가 가장 높았던 것으로 나타났다. 둘째, 플랜트와 토목 사업이 건축 사업보다 예비비를 많이 설정하였으나 입찰 전 예측 리스크 수준과는 상관성이 없었다. 이는 우리 기업의 예비비 산정에 문제가 있음을 내포하고 있다. 셋째, 세 개 공종 모두 실제 리스크 발생 수준과 원가 상승률 사이에 유의미한 상관성이 존재하는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 리스크 관리가 실행원가 관리에 중요한 요소임을 보여준다. 본 연구에서 도출된 결과는 국내 기업들의 공종별로 차별화된 보다 실전적인 리스크 관리를 지원할 것으로 기대된다.

• 대한전기학회논문지
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• 제36권5호
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• pp.309-318
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• 1987

In the on-line security analysis of power system, Automatic Contingency Selection (ACS) is commonly used to reduce the number of contingency cases which will be evaluated in detail. This paper describes a fast and reliable ACS method which adopts DC load flow in conjunction with compensation theorem to improve execution time, and applies severity performance index, divided on each limit level for considering overload rate, to make reliable contingency ranking. The method has been tested in IEEE 25 bus system and KEPCO 130 bus actual power system. The results of these tests verify its superiority to both the execution time and reliability, and illustrate its effectiveness for the practical use.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회/대한산업공학회 2005년도 춘계공동학술대회 발표논문
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• pp.1072-1082
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• 2005

This study develops a contingency fit between client IT capability and vendor competence in IS outsourcing relationship by integrating both the contingency theory in organization and the relationship theory in IS outsourcing. By adopting a fit as a moderation, the relationship intensity of IS outsourcing is hypothesized to be influenced by the fit between client IT capability and vendor competence, thereby leading to the success of outsourcing. The testing data was obtained from 20 IS outsourcing projects from both clients and vendors in Korea. The research model proposed in this study was then tested using the structural equation model (SEM). As expected, the result shows that when there is a fit between client IT capability and vendor competence, higher level of relationship intensity and outsourcing success exhibits. The findings have significant impactions for further research and practice.

• The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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• 제7권12호
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• pp.761-771
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• 2020

This study discusses the role of Board Monitoring Effectiveness (BME) on managers' decisions regarding the business strategies that fit the external business environmental conditions by using a contingency analysis approach. Furthermore, this study will examine how fit strategies affect Sustainability Reporting (SR) of listed companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange (IDX) from 2014 to 2017. This study uses Conditional Mixed Process (CMP) technique. This CMP method is claimed to be more efficient in analyzing the TSL models. This study found that in highly uncertain conditions, BME had a positive influence on the probability of managers to choose prospector and defender strategies rather than analyzers. These results indicate that BME shows positive impact on the contingency fit between business strategies and environmental uncertainty. In addition, the study documents that only prospectors have a positive impact on SR, however this study failed to document that defenders have positive impact on SR. Meanwhile the unexpected result is analyzers have a significantly positive effect on SR. This study is the first study to investigate the role of BME in contingency fit between business strategies and environmental uncertainties and how it produces effects up to the level of SR.