• Title/Summary/Keyword: Consumption prediction

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A Study of Sales Increase and/or Decrease by Campaign Using a Differential Equation Model of the Growth Phenomenon

  • Horinouchi, Kunihito;Takabayashi, Naoki;Yamamoto, Hisashi;Ohba, Masaaki
    • Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
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    • v.13 no.3
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    • pp.289-296
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    • 2014
  • With society becoming more advanced and complex, the required management engineering makes essential the development of human resources that can propose solutions for problems of new phenomena from a different perspective. As an example of such phenomena, we note a consumer electronics 'Eco-point' system campaign in this study. To mitigate global warming, revitalize the economy, and encourage the adoption of terrestrial digital compatible TVs, the consumer electronics Eco-point system campaign was implemented in May 2009 in Japan. In this study, we note a model which is constant term with exponential curve with notion of the growth phenomenon (Nakagiri and Kurita, Journal of the Operations Research Society of Japan, 2002). In our study, we call this model the 'differential equation model of the growth phenomenon.' This model represents a phenomenon with a hierarchical structure for capturing the properties of n species. In this study, we propose a new model which can represent not only the impact of largescale campaigns but also seasonal factors. Accordingly, we understand the phenomenon of fluctuation of sales of some products caused by large-scale campaigns and predict the fluctuation of sales. The final goal of this study is to develop human resources that can propose provision and solution for pre-consumption and reactionary decline in demand by understanding the impact of large-scale campaigns. As the first step of this goal, our objective is to propose a new regression method with different conventional perspective that can describe the fluctuation of sales caused by large-scale campaigns and show the possibility of new management engineering education.

A Study on the Comparison of Transmission Error Prediction for a Helical Gear Pair (헬리컬기어의 전달오차예측 비교에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Lae-sung;Zhang, Qi;Choi, Chang;Liang, Longjun;Lyu, Sung-ki
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Manufacturing Process Engineers
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.14-18
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    • 2015
  • In recent years, world is faced with a transportation energy dilemma, and the transportation is almost dependent on a single fuel - petroleum. However, Hybrid Electric Vehicle (HEV) technology holds more advantages to reduce the demand for petroleum in the transportation by efficiency improvements of petroleum consumption. Therefore, there is a trend that lower gear noise levels are demanded in HEV for drivers to avoid annoyance and fatigue during operation. And meshing transmission error (T.E.) is the excitation that leads to the tonal noise known as gear whine, and radiated gear whine is also the dominant source of noise in the whole gearbox. In this paper, the analysis of gear tooth profile and lead modification is firstly presented, and then, the different transmission error of no mesh misalignment and mesh misalignment under one loaded torque for the 1st gear pair of HEV gearbox was investigated and compared. At last, the appropriate tooth modification was used to minimize and compare the transmission error of the gear pair with mesh misalignment under the loaded torque.

A Fairness and QoS Supporting MAC(FQSM) Protocol for Wireless Sensor Networks (무선 센서 네트워크에서 공평성과 QoS를 지원하는 MAC 프로토콜)

  • Kim, Seong-Cheol
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information and Communication Engineering
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    • v.16 no.1
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    • pp.191-197
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    • 2012
  • In this paper we propose the FQSM(Fairness and QoS Supporting MAC) protocol that supports fairness and Quality of Service(QoS). The received or measured data traffics will be assigned a priority level according to its transmission urgency in the FQSM. And the load prediction algorithm is used to support the fairness between different priority traffics. For this, the buffer length values of the nodes are continuously monitored for a some period. Based on the buffer length variations for this period, the order of transmission is determined. FQSM also adapts cross-layer concept to rearrange the data transmission order in each sensor node's buffer, saves energy consumption by allowing few nodes in data transmission, and prolongs the network lifetime.

Mathematical Simulation for the Prediction of the Shelf Life of Tofu Packaged in a Polyethylene Container (폴리에틸렌 필름으로 포장된 두부의 보관수명 예측을 위한 수치모사)

  • Kim, Jai Neung;Rim, Byung-O;Shon, Tae-Won;Chung, Gui-Yung
    • Applied Chemistry for Engineering
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    • v.9 no.6
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    • pp.889-893
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    • 1998
  • In this research, mathematical models for predicting the shelf life of packaged tofu in a polyethylene container were developed. Transfer of oxygen in air through the package and then diffusion of oxygen into the filled water and the tofu with the simultaneous oxygen consumption by micoorganisms were studied. The results of simulation showed that the increase of microorganisms in the filled water was more than that in tofu. As a result, it turns out that the shelf life of packaged tofu was not determined by the number of microorganisms in the tofu, but by that in the filled water. Additionally, the effects of physical properties of packaging material and packaged materials, such as the oxygen permeability of packaging material, oxygen diffusion coefficient and the initial oxygen concentration in filled water, and the depth of the filled water, on the shelf life of packaged tofu, were observed.

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A Study on Development of the Meteorological Data Preprocessing Program for Air Pollution Modeling (대기오염 모델링을 위한 기상자료 전처리 프로그램 개발에 관한 연구)

  • Lim, Ik-Hyun;Bae, Sung-Hwan
    • The Journal of the Korea institute of electronic communication sciences
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.47-54
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    • 2015
  • Recently, rapid urbanization and industrialization had increased the air pollution in major cities by increasing the fuel consumption. Air pollution models have been widely used for air quality management in many countries. Also, a lot of related studies have been conducted using air dispersion models. In this study, The meteorological preprocessing program was developed to convert the korea meteorological data to the U.S. meteorological data and to expand the usability of air dispersion models of U.S. EPA. In addition, the usability evaluation was carried out through a case study. In the results of the evaluation of the program, this program was accurately convert the Korea meteorological data to the U.S. meteorological data, and the prediction was carried out without a error in air quality modeling. Therefore, the program showed a high utilization as meteorological data pre-processing tool.

Current situation and future prospects for beef production in Europe - A review

  • Hocquette, Jean-Francois;Ellies-Oury, Marie-Pierre;Lherm, Michel;Pineau, Christele;Deblitz, Claus;Farmer, Linda
    • Asian-Australasian Journal of Animal Sciences
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    • v.31 no.7
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    • pp.1017-1035
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    • 2018
  • The European Union (EU) is the world's third largest producer of beef. This contributes to the economy, rural development, social life, culture and gastronomy of Europe. The diversity of breeds, animal types (cows, bulls, steers, heifers) and farming systems (intensive, extensive on permanent or temporary pastures, mixed, breeders, feeders, etc) is a strength, and a weakness as the industry is often fragmented and poorly connected. There are also societal concerns regarding animal welfare and environmental issues, despite some positive environmental impacts of farming systems. The EU is amongst the most efficient for beef production as demonstrated by a relative low production of greenhouse gases. Due to regional differences in terms of climate, pasture availability, livestock practices and farms characteristics, productivity and incomes of beef producers vary widely across regions, being among the lowest of the agricultural systems. The beef industry is facing unprecedented challenges related to animal welfare, environmental impact, origin, authenticity, nutritional benefits and eating quality of beef. These may affect the whole industry, especially its farmers. It is therefore essential to bring the beef industry together to spread best practice and better exploit research to maintain and develop an economically viable and sustainable beef industry. Meeting consumers' expectations may be achieved by a better prediction of beef palatability using a modelling approach, such as in Australia. There is a need for accurate information and dissemination on the benefits and issues of beef for human health and for environmental impact. A better objective description of goods and services derived from livestock farming is also required. Putting into practice "agroecology" and organic farming principles are other potential avenues for the future. Different future scenarios can be written depending on the major driving forces, notably meat consumption, climate change, environmental policies and future organization of the supply chain.

Investigation of Structural Reliability on Solder Joint According to Heater Set-point of the Lunar Lander (달 착륙선의 히터 작동온도 설정에 따른 솔더 접합부의 구조적 신뢰성 분석)

  • Jeon, Young-Hyeon;Park, Tae-Yong;Lee, Jang-Joon;Kim, Jung-Hoon;Oh, Hyun-Ung
    • Journal of the Korean Society for Aeronautical & Space Sciences
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    • v.46 no.2
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    • pp.167-174
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    • 2018
  • The heater is applied to the lunar lander for securing its survivability under severe lunar thermal environment during 14 days of night time. For this, the heater on/off set-points shall be determined to minimize the power consumption due to the limited power generation of lunar lander during night time. In addition, the temperature changes of the lander according to the heater set-point is also an important factor because it is related to thermo-mechanical reliability on solder joint of on-board electronics. In this study, we investigated thermo-mechanical reliability on solder joint according to the heater set-point by using commercial reliability and a life prediction tool of Sherlock based on the thermal analysis results of lunar lander that is a year of the mission lifetime.

Estimation of Economics thorough Prediction of Methane Generation using IPCC Guideline from C Sanitary Landfill (IPCC가이드라인을 이용한 중소도시 C위생매립장의 메탄가스 발생량 예측을 통한 경제성 평가)

  • Lee, Sang-Woo;Park, Seo-Yun;Chang, In-Soo;Kang, Byung-Wook;Park, Sang-Chan;Yeon, Ik-Jun
    • 한국신재생에너지학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.189.1-189.1
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    • 2011
  • Global warming effect was intensified due to rapid growth of fossil fuel consumption caused by urbanization and industrialization. Various efforts was being done to solve the problems leading to anomaly climate such as flood, downpour, heavy snow. As a results of international efforts for management of global warming, Kyoto Protocol, which was passed in Kyoto, Japan in 1997, designated $CO_2$, $CH_4$, $N_2O$, HFCs, PFCs, $SF_6$ as a global warming gases. And IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) suggested IPCC guideline for systematic establishment of national greenhouse gas inventory. Among five categories in IPCC guideline, the representative emission source of waste category is SWDS(solid waste disposal site). The concentrative research should progress for effective management of greenhouse gas related with waste. In this study, Tier1 and Tier2 methods which was suggested by 2006 IPCC(Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) guideline, was used to predict methane generation from C sanitary landfill located in Chungju area. To predict methane generation from C sanitary landfill, all factors were defaults values that were provided by 2006 IPCC guideline and Korea emission factors for Tier1 and Tier2 method. And economics of generated methane was estimated. From the predicted result using IPCC guideline, the methane generation was persistingly increased over a 9-year period(2000 ~ 2008). Aggregated amount of methane generation was about 3,017ton and 3,170ton predicted by Tier1 and Tier2, respectively. From the results of estimated economic value gained by generated methane from the C sanitary landfill for ten years from now(2010 ~ 2020), the profit was about 2.39 ~ 2.76 hundred million won.

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Performance Simulation of a Turboprop Engine for Basic Trainer

  • Kong, Changduk;Ki, Jayoung;Chung, Sukchoo
    • Journal of Mechanical Science and Technology
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    • v.16 no.6
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    • pp.839-850
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    • 2002
  • A performance simulation program for the turboprop engine (PT6A-62), which is the power plant of the first Korean indigenous basic trainer KT-1, was developed for performance prediction, development of an EHMS (Engine Health Monitoring System) and the flight simulator. Characteristics of components including compressors, turbines, power turbines and the constant speed propeller were required for the steady state and transient performance analysis with on and off design point analysis. In most cases, these were substituted for what scaled from similar engine components'characteristics with the scaling law. The developed program was evaluated with the performance data provided by the engine manufacturer and with analysis results of GASTURB program, which is well known for the performance simulation of gas turbines. Performance parameters such as mass flow rate, compressor pressure ratio, fuel flow rate, specific fuel consumption and turbine inlet temperature were discussed to evaluate validity of the developed program at various cases. The first case was the sea level static standard condition and other cases were considered with various altitudes, flight velocities and part loads with the range between idle and 105% rotational speed of the gas generator. In the transient analysis, the Continuity of Mass Flow Method was utilized under the condition that mass stored between components is ignored and the flow compatibility is satisfied, and the Modified Euler Method was used for integration of the surplus torque. The transient performance analysis for various fuel schedules was performed. When the fuel step increase was considered, the overshoot of the turbine inlet temperature occurred. However, in case of ramp increase of the fuel longer than step increase of the fuel, the overshoot of the turbine inlet temperature was effectively reduced.

Factors Affecting Microbial Respiration (MR) by Rapid Oxygen Uptake Rate (OUR) Monitoring (급속 OUR 모니터링을 이용한 Microbial Respiration (MR) 영향인자 평가)

  • Park, Se-Yong;Mo, Kyung;Kim, Youn-Kwon;Kim, Moon-Il
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.33 no.9
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    • pp.630-635
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    • 2011
  • As this study was estimation of factors of rapid OUR (Oxygen Uptake Rate) monitoring method. Experiment for estimating factors of optimal microorganism activity was carried out in this study. In addition to comparison and estimation of SCOD variation by OUR variation using real wastewaters. In consequence OUR value was highest when F/M ratio, pH and temperature were 0.03~0.05, 6.0~8.5 and $20{\sim}30^{\circ}C$ respectively. Oxygen consumption by nitrification was incomplete. OUR variation of SCOD was recognizable difference of degradable rate at before and after of inflection point OUR. This study used an experimental method for real time prediction of the influent of the sewage treatment plant for optimal operation is expected to be able to do.