• Title/Summary/Keyword: Confidence Value

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Evaluation of Allowable Bending Stress of Dimension Lumber; Confidence Levels and Size-adjustment

  • Pang, Sung-Jun;Lee, Jun-Jae;Oh, Jung-Kwon
    • Journal of the Korean Wood Science and Technology
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    • v.41 no.5
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    • pp.432-439
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    • 2013
  • The aim of this study was to investigate the processes for evaluating the allowable bending stress. The confidence levels and the size-adjustment in standards were reviewed with experimental data. The results show that, (1) KS F 2152 was more strict than others overseas standards due to the higher confidence level. The 5% NTL of bending strengths by a method in KS F 2152 were lower than the overseas standards and more specimens were required for evaluating the structural properties according to KS F 2152. (2) Due to the absence of size-adjustment method in domestic standards, the specified size and the exponential parameters on the size-adjustment equation were reviewed by size factors. The specified size (width: 286 mm, length: 6096 mm), and the exponential parameters (w: 0.29, l: 0.14) will be suitable for developing the allowable bending stress in domestic standard. (3) The size adjusted allowable bending stresses of No. 2 grade Korean pine were lower than the allowable stresses tabulated in KBC even though less strict method (75% confidence level) to calculate 5% value was used. The allowable stresses tabulated in KBC are needed to be reviewed by continuous experimental data.

Updated confidence intervals for the COVID-19 antibody retention rate in the Korean population

  • Kamruzzaman, Md.;Apio, Catherine;Park, Taesung
    • Genomics & Informatics
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.45.1-45.5
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    • 2020
  • With the ongoing rise of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic across the globe, interests in COVID-19 antibody testing, also known as a serology test has grown, as a way to measure how far the infection has spread in the population and to identify individuals who may be immune. Recently, many countries reported their population based antibody titer study results. South Korea recently reported their third antibody formation rate, where it divided the study between the general population and the young male youths in their early twenties. As previously stated, these simple point estimates may be misinterpreted without proper estimation of standard error and confidence intervals. In this article, we provide an updated 95% confidence intervals for COVID-19 antibody formation rate for the Korean population using asymptotic, exact and Bayesian statistical estimation methods. As before, we found that the Wald method gives the narrowest interval among all asymptotic methods whereas mid p-value gives the narrowest among all exact methods and Jeffrey's method gives the narrowest from Bayesian method. The most conservative 95% confidence interval estimation shows that as of 00:00 November 23, 2020, at least 69,524 people were infected but not confirmed. It also shows that more positive cases were found among the young male in their twenties (0.22%), three times that of the general public (0.051%). This thereby calls for the quarantine authorities' need to strengthen quarantine managements for the early twenties in order to find the hidden infected people in the population.

Effect of Tax-Related Information on Pre-Tax Income Forecast and Value Relevance

  • OH, Kwang-Wuk;KI, Eun-Sun
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.7 no.1
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    • pp.81-90
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    • 2020
  • We examine the effects of the complexity of tax-related information on the issuance of analyst's pre-tax income forecast and its value relevance. If analysts respond adequately to the needs of investors, they are more likely to provide a pre-tax income forecast. The provision of a pre-tax income forecast may indicate analysts' confidence in assessing the quality of earnings. Thus, investors, in turn, would be more confident in the analysts' pre-tax income forecasts if analysts provide both pre-tax and earnings forecasts than only the latter. Using a sample of Korean listed companies for 2005-2014, we find that analysts are likely to provide an implicit tax forecast when the volatility of the effective tax rate is low and the book-tax differences are small. We also find that when analysts provide pre-tax and after tax income forecasts, the value relevance for unexpected earnings increases. These results indicate that analysts are likely to be interested in corporate tax information and the complexity of tax-related information affects the availability of implicit tax forecasts. Furthermore, this study provides empirical evidence that when analysts provide both pre-tax and after tax income forecasts, investors have more confidence in analysts' earnings forecasts, which results in greater investors' responses.

Empirical Bayesian Multiple Comparisons with the Best

  • Kim, Woo-Chul;Hwang, Hyung-Tae
    • Journal of the Korean Statistical Society
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    • v.20 no.2
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    • pp.108-117
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    • 1991
  • A parametric empirical Bayes procedure is proposed and studied to compare treatments simultaneously with the best. Minimum Bayes risk lower bounds are derived for an additive loss function, and their relationship with Bayesian simultaneous confidence lower bounds is given. For the proposed empirical Bayes procedure, the nominal confidence level both in Bayesian sense and in frequentist's sense is shown to be controlled asymptotically. For practical implementation, a measure of significance similar to f-value is suggested with an illustrative example.

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Bootstrapping Logit Model

  • Kim, Dae-hak;Jeong, Hyeong-Chul
    • Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.281-289
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, we considered an application of the bootstrap method for logit model. Estimation of type I error probability, the bootstrap p-values and bootstrap confidence intervals of parameter were proposed. Small sample Monte Carlo simulation were conducted in order to compare proposed method with existing normal theory based asymptotic method.

A Study on the Effect of Coffee Shop Service Quality on Perceived Value and Behavioral Intention - Focusing on Busan-Area College Students - (커피전문점 서비스품질이 지각된 가치와 행동의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 - 부산지역 대학생을 중심으로 -)

  • Lee, Jong-Ho
    • Culinary science and hospitality research
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    • v.19 no.3
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    • pp.218-233
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    • 2013
  • This study used SPSSS 18.0 on 237 university students in Busan for frequency, factorial and reliability, correlation, and regression analyses to determine the effect relationship of coffee shop service quality on perceived value and behavioral intention. Multiple regression analysis for hypothesis testing showed that among the four service quality factors, confidence in employees and primary coffee quality had a non-significant effect on esthetic value, while menu characteristics besides coffee (${\beta}$=.293, p<.001) and physical environment (${\beta}$=.293, p<.001) were analyzed to be significant, partially supporting the study hypothesis. Regarding the effect of service quality on practical value, confidence in employees (${\beta}$=.264 p<.001), primary coffee quality (${\beta}$=.463, p<.001), menu characteristics besides coffee (${\beta}$=.139, p<.05) and physical environment (${\beta}$=.110, p<.05) were all significantly analyzed, supporting the study hypothesis. Regarding the effect of service quality on behavioral intention, confidence in employees (${\beta}$=.262 p<.001), primary coffee quality (${\beta}$=.411, p<.001), menu characteristics besides coffee (${\beta}$=.157, p<.01) and physical environment (${\beta}$=.137, p<.05) were all significantly analyzed, supporting the study hypothesis. In addition, regarding the effect of perceived value on behavioral intention, esthetic value (${\beta}$=.265, p<.001) and practical value (${\beta}$=.536, p<.001) were both significantly analyzed, showing a causal relationship with behavioral intention.

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Extended Trust Evaluation Mechanism Considered Confidence Value of Distributed Service in Mobile Ad-hoc Network (Mobile Ad-hoc Network 상에서 분산된 서비스에 대한 확신 값을 고려한 확장된 신뢰도 평가 기법)

  • Jang, Jong-Deok;Yoon, Chang-Pyo;Ryou, Hwang-Bin
    • Convergence Security Journal
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    • v.10 no.2
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    • pp.51-57
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    • 2010
  • This paper proposes extended trust evaluation mechanism which is able to become the standard of the node selection which provides a better service by using the basic transaction message which occurs from within the mobile Ad-hoc network and the additional transaction message and add confidence value. Furthermore, throughout the simulation shows the efficiency of the proposed trust evaluation mechanism.

Noise Evaluation Considering the Uncertainty Variation According to Frequency

  • Lee, Chulwon;Koo, SeungJun;Kong, Young Mo
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society for Noise and Vibration Engineering Conference
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    • 2014.04a
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    • pp.191-196
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    • 2014
  • In the evaluation of measured noise data, tolerance shall be decided based on the uncertainty. The uncertainty has frequency variations due to the different standard deviations at each frequency. Therefore, tolerance shall be differently decided for each frequency with the same confidence probability. In the report, the evaluation method considering the frequency variation of uncertainty will be introduced. From the approach, considering the actual noise distribution characteristics of the ships, the tolerance shall be decided for each frequency with the same probability, but the overall averaged value shall be kept to the value designated in each notation.

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Parameter Recovery for LIDAR Data Calibration Using Natural Surfaces

  • Lee Impyeong;Moon Jiyoung;Kim Kyoung-ok
    • Proceedings of the KSRS Conference
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    • 2004.10a
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    • pp.642-645
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    • 2004
  • This paper focuses on recovering systematic biases during LIDAR calibration, particularly using natural surfaces as control features. Many previous approaches have utilized all the points overlapping with the control features and often experienced with an inaccurate value converged with a poor rate due to wrong correspondence in pairing a point and the corresponding control features. To overcome these shortcomings, we establish a preventive scheme to select the pairs of high confidence, where the confidence value is based on the error budget associated with the point measurement and the linearity and roughness of the control feature. This approach was then applied to calibraring the LIDAR data simulated with the given systematic biases. The parameters were successfully recovered using the proposed approach with the accuracy and convergence rate superior to those using the previous approaches.

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An analysis of Mathematical Knowledge for Teaching of statistical estimation (통계적 추정을 가르치기 위한 수학적 지식(MKT)의 분석)

  • Choi, Min Jeong;Lee, Jong Hak;Kim, Won Kyung
    • The Mathematical Education
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    • v.55 no.3
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    • pp.317-334
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    • 2016
  • Knowledge and data interpretation on statistical estimation was important to have statistical literacy that current curriculum was said not to satisfy. The author investigated mathematics teachers' MKT on statistical estimation concerning interpretation of confidence interval by using questionnaire and interview. SMK of teachers' confidence was limited to the area of textbooks to be difficult to interpret data of real life context. Most of teachers wrongly understood SMK of interpretation of confidence interval to have influence upon PCK making correction of students' wrong concept. SMK of samples and sampling distribution that were basic concept of reliability and confidence interval cognized representation of samples rather exactly not to understand importance and value of not only variability but also size of the sample exactly, and not to cognize appropriateness and needs of each stage from sampling to confidence interval estimation to have great difficulty at proper teaching of statistical estimation. PCK that had teaching method had problem of a lot of misconception. MKT of sample and sampling distribution that interpreted confidence interval had almost no relation with teachers' experience to require opportunity for development of teacher professionalism. Therefore, teachers were asked to estimate statistic and to get confidence interval and to understand concept of the sample and think much of not only relationship of each concept but also validity of estimated values, and to have knowledge enough to interpret data of real life contexts, and to think and discuss students' concepts. So, textbooks should introduce actual concepts at real life context to make use of exact orthography and to let teachers be reeducated for development of professionalism.