• Title/Summary/Keyword: Confidence Evaluation

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Evaluation of Regional Flowering Phenological Models in Niitaka Pear by Temperature Patterns (경과기온 양상에 따른 신고 배의 지역별 개화예측모델 평가)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Yun, Eun-jeong;Kim, Dae-jun;Kang, DaeGyoon;Seo, Bo Hun;Shim, Kyo-Moon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.22 no.4
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    • pp.268-278
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    • 2020
  • Flowering time has been put forward due to the recent abnormally warm winter, which often caused damages of flower buds by late frosts persistently. In the present study, cumulative chill unit and cumulative heat unit of Niitaka pear, which are required for releasing the endogenous dormancy and for flowering after breaking dormancy, respectively, were compared between flowering time prediction models used in South K orea. Observation weather data were collected at eight locations for the recent three years from 2018-2020. The dates of full bloom were also collected to determine the confidence level of models including DVR, mDVR and CD models. It was found that mDVR model tended to have smaller values (8.4%) of the coefficient of variation (cv) of chill units than any other models. The CD model tended to have a low value of cv (17.5%) for calculation of heat unit required to reach flowering after breaking dormancy. The mDVR model had the most accurate prediction of full bloom during the study period compared with the other models. The DVR model usually had poor skills in prediction of full bloom dates. In particular, the error of the DVR model was large especially in southern coastal areas (e.g., Ulju and Sacheon) where the temperature was warm. Our results indicated that the mDVR model had relatively consistent accuracy in prediction of full bloom dates over region and years of interest. When observation data for full bloom date are compiled for an extended period, the full bloom date can be predicted with greater accuracy improving the mDVR model further.

An Analysis of Education Implementation for the Improvement of Education for Sustainable Development (ESD) of Pre-service Science Teachers: Focusing on the Integration of Sustainable Happiness and Complexity Theory (예비과학교사들의 지속가능발전교육 전문성 향상을 위한 교육실행 분석: 지속가능한 행복과 복잡성 이론 접목을 중심으로)

  • Yeon-A, Son
    • Journal of the Korean Society of Earth Science Education
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.391-409
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    • 2022
  • In this study, class demonstrations conducted integrating science education and 'Education for Sustainable Development (ESD)' by pre-service science teachers were analyzed, focusing on the concept of 'sustainable happiness' and the main elements of 'complexity theory'. In addition, changes before and after participating in such education implementation were analyzed from various angles. Through this, pre-service science teachers tried to derive implications for developing multidimensional teacher professionalism in ESD. The main findings are as follows. First, as a result of peer evaluation of class materials and class demonstrations designed by pre-service science teachers, the average of the integration for 'sustainable happiness' was relatively high. Next, it was analyzed that the elements of 'sustainable happiness' and 'complexity theory' generally had a positive correlation with ESD. In addition, after participating in the study, pre-service science teachers considered individual and social behavioral patterns as important in the sense of ESD. Regarding the need to integrate science education and ESD, pre-service science teachers thought it was necessary to deal with the concept of 'sustainable happiness' in science education to understand a sustainable way of life. It was analyzed that the elements of 'sustainable happiness' and 'complexity theory' generally had a positive correlation with ESD. It was found that pre-service science teachers' confidence in incorporating ESD in science classes was significantly higher after participation in the study. In addition, it was analyzed that pre-service science teachers have come to think more about the role of teachers who can communicate with students and think about happy lives together than before. Overall, it is thought that pre-service science teachers have come to think of multidimensional science teacher professionalism by applying the perspective of the teaching and learning strategy of the new ESD, which integrates the concept of 'sustainable happiness' and elements of 'complexity theory'.

Nuclear Weapons and Extended Deterrence in the U.S.-ROK Alliance (핵무기와 한·미 핵 확장억제 능력)

  • Huntley, Wade L.
    • Strategy21
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    • s.34
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    • pp.236-261
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    • 2014
  • The future role of nuclear extended deterrence in the security alliance between the United States and the Republic of Korea is currently a central concern. The gradually lessening role of reliance on nuclear weapons in US security policies broadly, combined with increasing North Korean nuclear capabilities and belligerence, raise fresh questions about the sufficiency of the "nuclear umbrella" as a pillar of the US-ROK defense posture. This article addresses the current and future role of nuclear extended deterrence in Korea in this dynamic context. The article reviews the longstanding trend toward reducing the overall size of the US nuclear arsenal, and assesses developments in US-ROK outlooks toward extended deterrence in response to the Obama administration's nuclear policies and North Korea's recent smaller-scale aggressions. The analysis finds that the challenges of deterrence credibility and allied reassurance are difficult and long-term. The analysis explains how these challenges emerge less from a shrinking US numerical arsenal size than from the sufficiency of specific nuclear and non-nuclear capabilities to meet emerging smaller-scale threats. The analysis also highlights the importance of broader strategic and political interaction in sustaining allied confidence in any joint security posture. The evaluation concludes that a strong US-ROK alliance relationship can be maintained while the size of the US nuclear arsenal continues to decline, in part because nuclear weapons in any deployment configuration are relatively ineffective means for deterring smaller-scale aggression. Nevertheless, continuing adjustment of the US-ROK extended deterrence posture to the evolving, complex and uncertain Korean peninsula security environment will remain an ongoing challenge. Finally, the article encourages further examination of the potential specific role ROK maritime forces might serve in enhancing deterrence of smaller-scale threats while minimizing risks of conflict escalation.

Immunogenicity and Safety of a Haemophilus influenzae Type b Polysaccharide-Tetanus Toxoid Conjugate Vaccine (PRP-T: HiberixTM) in Korean Infants (우리나라 영아에서 PRP-T(HiberixTM)백신의 면역원성 및 안전성에 대한 연구)

  • Chung, Eun Hee;Kim, Yae Jean;Kim, Yun Kyung;Kim, Dong Ho;Seo, Jeong Wan;Lee, Hoan Jong
    • Pediatric Infection and Vaccine
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    • v.10 no.1
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2003
  • Purpose : Four kinds of Haemophilus influenzae type b protein conjugate vaccines, PRPD, PRP-T, PRP-OMP and PRP-CRM197, have been developed, and PRP-T vaccines are currently produced by two manufacturer, $ActHib^{(R)}$ by Aventis and $Hiberix^{TM}$ by GlaxoSmith-Kline Biologicals. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the immunogenicity and safety of $Hiberix^{TM}$ in Korean infants. Methods : Seventy-three healthy infants(43 male infants) were recruited for this study after parental informed consent was obtained. Each infant was vaccinated at 2, 4 and 6 months of age with the study vaccine. At each visit, infants were also immunized with DTaP, trivalent oral polio vaccine and hepatitis B vaccine when indicated. The serum anti-PRP antibody was measured at prevaccination, 2 month later after the 2nd dose, and 1 month later after the 3rd dose by the ELISA method. The local and systemic adverse reactions of vaccination were monitored for 3 consecutive days after each immunization. Immunogenicity of vaccine was evaluated in infants who received all the scheduled immunization and the adverse reactions were evaluated for infants who received at least one dose of the study vaccine. Results : Among seventy three infants, enrolled in this study; sixty three(37 male infants) completed all the scheduled immunizations. The geometric mean titer(GMT) of anti-PRP antibodies at prevaccination was 0.17 ${\mu}g/mL$(95% confidence interval[CI]; 0.13~0.22). The GMT of anti-PRP antibodies increased to 4.14 ${\mu}g/mL$(95% CI; 2.65~6.48) at 2 month later after the 2nd dose of PRP-T and 14.65 ${\mu}g/mL$(95% CI; 10.83~19.81) at 1 month later after the 3rd dose. Anti-PRP antibody ${\geq}0.15$ ${\mu}g/mL$, was observed in 98.4%(95% CI; 91.8~100) after 2 doses and 100%(95% CI; 100~100) after 3 doses. Anti-PRP antibody ${\geq}1.0$ ${\mu}g/mL$, was obtained in 77.8%(95% CI; 67.5~88.0) after 2 doses, and 98.4%(95% CI; 95.3~100) after 3 doses. Most of the adverse reaction after vaccination were mild. Irritability, the most common systemic reaction, was observed in 45.5%, followed by drowsiness(30.5%), poor feeding(26.7%) and fever(5.6%). Among the local reactions tenderness was observed in 7.9%, redness(${\geq}5$ mm) in 2.8% and swelling(${\geq}5$ mm) in 1.8%. Conclusion : The PRP-T vaccine used in this study was highly immunogenic and safe in Korean young infants. The finding that high GMT and high frequency of infants with a protective titer achieved after 2 doses is consistent with the previous studies which were done with a PRP-T vaccine of other manufacturer. This study suggests that the immunization schedule of PRP-T vaccine for Korean infants may need re-evaluation.

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The Determination of Trust in Franchisor-Franchisee Relationships in China (중국 프랜차이즈 시스템에서의 본부와 가맹점간 신뢰의 영향요인)

  • Shin, Geon-Cheol;Ma, Yaokun
    • Journal of Global Scholars of Marketing Science
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    • v.18 no.2
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    • pp.65-88
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    • 2008
  • Since the implementation of economic reforms in 1978, the Chinese economy grows rapidly at an average annul growth rate of 9% over the post two decades. Franchising has been widely recognized as an important source of entrepreneurial activity. Trust is important in that it facilitates relational exchanges by permits partners to transcend short-run inequities or risks to concentrate on long-term profits or gains. In the relationship between the franchisors and franchisees, trust has been described as an important source of competitive advantage. However, little research has been done on the factors affecting trust in Chinese franchisor-franchisee relationships. The purpose of this study is to investigate what factors affect the trust in the franchise system in China, and to provide guidelines and insights to franchisors which enter Chinese market. In this study, according to Morgan and Hunt (1994), trust is defined as the extending when one party has confidence in an exchange partner's reliability and integrity. We offered a conceptual model of the empirical study. The model shows that the factors affecting the trust include franchisor's supports, communication, satisfaction with previous outcome and conflict. We also suggested the franchisor's supports and communication like to enhance the franchisee's satisfaction with previous outcome, and the franchisor's supports, communication and he franchisee's satisfaction with previous outcome tend to decrease conflict. Before the formal study, a pretest involving exploratory interviews with owners from three franchisees was conducted to make sure the questionnaire was relevant and clear to the respondents. The data were collected using trained interviewers to carry out personal interviews with the aid of an unidentified, muti-page, structured questionnaire. The respondents comprised of owners, managers, and owner managers of franchisee-owned food service franchises located in Beijing, China. Even though a total of 256 potential franchises were initially contacted, the finally usable sample consisted of 125 respondents. As expected, the sampling method was successful in soliciting respondents with waried personal and firm characteristics. Self-administrated questionnaires were used for all measures. And established scales were used to measure the latent constructs in this study. The measures tapped the franchisees' perceptions of the relationship with the referent franchisor. Five-point Likert-type scales ranging from "strongly disagree" (=1) to "strongly agree" (=7) were used throughout the constructs (trust, eight items; support, five items; communication, four items; satisfaction, six items; conflict, three items). The reliability measurements traditionally employed, such as the Cronbach's alpha, were used. All the reliabilities were greater than.80. The proposed measurement model was estimated using SPSS 12.0 and AMOS 5.0 analysis package. We conducted A series of exploratory factor analyses and confirmatory factor analyses to assess the convergent validity, discriminant validity, and reliability. The results indicate reasonable overall fits between the model and the observed data. The overall fit of measurement model were $X^2$= 159.699, p=0.004, d.f. = 116, GFI =.879, NFI =.898, CFI =.969, IFI =.970, TLI =.959, RMR =.058. The results demonstrated that the data reasonably fitted the model. We also examined construct reliability and reliability and average variance extracted (AVE). The construct reliability of each construct was greater than.80 and the AVE of each construct was greater than.50. According to the analysis of Structure Equation Modeling (SEM), the results of path model indicated an adequate fit of the model: $X^2$= 142.126, p = 0.044, d.f. = 115, GFI =.892, NFI =.909, CFI =.981, IFI =.981, TLI =.974, RMR =.057. As hypothesized, the results showed that it is strategically important to establish trust in a franchise system, and the franchisor's supports, communication and satisfaction with previous outcome tend to reinforce franchisee's trust. The results also showed trust seems to decrease as the experience of conflict episodes increases. And we also noticed that franchisor's supports and communication tend to enhance the franchisee's satisfaction with previous outcome, and communication tend to decrease conflict. If the trust between the franchisor and franchisee can be established in a franchise system, franchising offers many benefits and reduces many costs. To manage a mutual trust of relationship with their franchisees, franchisor's should provide support effectively to their franchisees. Effective assistant services have direct effect on franchisees' satisfaction with previous outcome and trust in franchisor. Especially, franchise sales process, orientation, and training in the start-up period are key elements for success of the franchise system. Franchisor's support is an accumulated separate satisfaction evaluation with different kind of service provided by the franchisor. And providing support definitely can improve the trustworthy image of the franchisor. In the franchise system, conflicts of interests and exertions of different power sources are very common. The experience of conflict episodes seems to negatively relate to trust. Therefore, it is important to reduce the negative side of the relationship conflicts. Communication actually plays a broader role in reducing conflict and establish mutual trust in franchisor-franchisee relationship. And effective communication between franchisors and franchisees can improve franchisees' satisfaction toward the franchise system. As the diversification of Chinese markets, both franchisors and franchisees must keep the relevant, timely, and reliable communication. And it is very important to improve the quality of communication. Satisfaction with precious outcomes seems to positively relate to trust. Franchisors and franchisees that are highly satisfied with the previous outcomes that flow from their relationship will perceive their partner as advancing their goal achievement. Therefore, it is necessary for both franchisor and their franchisees to make the welfare of partner with effort. Little literature has focused on what factors affect the trust between franchisors and their franchisees in China. This study developed the hypotheses regarding the factors affecting trust in the transaction relationship. The results of data analysis supported the hypotheses strongly. There are certain limitations in this study. First, we may point out that some other factors missed in this study could be significantly important. Second, the context of this study, food service industry, limits its potential generalizability for all franchise systems. More studies in different categories of franchise system are needed to broaden its generalizability. Third, the model was tested empirically in a sample in Beijing, more empirical tests of the proposed model in other Chinese areas are needed. Finally, the analysis in this study was solely based on the perception of franchisees and the opinions of franchisors were not included.

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Edge to Edge Model and Delay Performance Evaluation for Autonomous Driving (자율 주행을 위한 Edge to Edge 모델 및 지연 성능 평가)

  • Cho, Moon Ki;Bae, Kyoung Yul
    • Journal of Intelligence and Information Systems
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    • v.27 no.1
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    • pp.191-207
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    • 2021
  • Up to this day, mobile communications have evolved rapidly over the decades, mainly focusing on speed-up to meet the growing data demands of 2G to 5G. And with the start of the 5G era, efforts are being made to provide such various services to customers, as IoT, V2X, robots, artificial intelligence, augmented virtual reality, and smart cities, which are expected to change the environment of our lives and industries as a whole. In a bid to provide those services, on top of high speed data, reduced latency and reliability are critical for real-time services. Thus, 5G has paved the way for service delivery through maximum speed of 20Gbps, a delay of 1ms, and a connecting device of 106/㎢ In particular, in intelligent traffic control systems and services using various vehicle-based Vehicle to X (V2X), such as traffic control, in addition to high-speed data speed, reduction of delay and reliability for real-time services are very important. 5G communication uses high frequencies of 3.5Ghz and 28Ghz. These high-frequency waves can go with high-speed thanks to their straightness while their short wavelength and small diffraction angle limit their reach to distance and prevent them from penetrating walls, causing restrictions on their use indoors. Therefore, under existing networks it's difficult to overcome these constraints. The underlying centralized SDN also has a limited capability in offering delay-sensitive services because communication with many nodes creates overload in its processing. Basically, SDN, which means a structure that separates signals from the control plane from packets in the data plane, requires control of the delay-related tree structure available in the event of an emergency during autonomous driving. In these scenarios, the network architecture that handles in-vehicle information is a major variable of delay. Since SDNs in general centralized structures are difficult to meet the desired delay level, studies on the optimal size of SDNs for information processing should be conducted. Thus, SDNs need to be separated on a certain scale and construct a new type of network, which can efficiently respond to dynamically changing traffic and provide high-quality, flexible services. Moreover, the structure of these networks is closely related to ultra-low latency, high confidence, and hyper-connectivity and should be based on a new form of split SDN rather than an existing centralized SDN structure, even in the case of the worst condition. And in these SDN structural networks, where automobiles pass through small 5G cells very quickly, the information change cycle, round trip delay (RTD), and the data processing time of SDN are highly correlated with the delay. Of these, RDT is not a significant factor because it has sufficient speed and less than 1 ms of delay, but the information change cycle and data processing time of SDN are factors that greatly affect the delay. Especially, in an emergency of self-driving environment linked to an ITS(Intelligent Traffic System) that requires low latency and high reliability, information should be transmitted and processed very quickly. That is a case in point where delay plays a very sensitive role. In this paper, we study the SDN architecture in emergencies during autonomous driving and conduct analysis through simulation of the correlation with the cell layer in which the vehicle should request relevant information according to the information flow. For simulation: As the Data Rate of 5G is high enough, we can assume the information for neighbor vehicle support to the car without errors. Furthermore, we assumed 5G small cells within 50 ~ 250 m in cell radius, and the maximum speed of the vehicle was considered as a 30km ~ 200 km/hour in order to examine the network architecture to minimize the delay.

Evaluating the usefulness of BinkieRTTM (oral positioning stent) for Head and Neck Radiotherapy (두경부암 환자 방사선 치료 시 BinkieRTTM(구강용 고정장치)에 대한 유용성 평가)

  • GyeongJin Lee;SangJun Son;GyeongDal Lim;ChanYong Kim;JeHee Lee
    • The Journal of Korean Society for Radiation Therapy
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    • v.34
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    • pp.21-30
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    • 2022
  • Purpose: The purpose of this study is to evaluate the effectiveness of oral positioning stent, the BinkieRTTM in radiation treatment for head and neck cancer patients in terms of tongue positions reproducibility, tongue doses and material properties. Materials and Methods: 24 cases using BinkieRTTM during radiation treatments were enrolled. The tongue was contoured on planning CT and CBCT images taken every 3 days during treatment, and then the DSC and center of tongue shift values were analyzed to evaluate the reproducibility of the tongue. The tongue dose was compared in terms of dose distribution when using BinkieRTTM and different type of oral stents (mouthpiece, paraffin wax). Randomly selected respective 10 patients were measured tongue doses of initial treatment plan for nasal cavity and unilateral parotid cancer. Finally, In terms of material evaluation, HU and relative electron density were identified in RTPS. Results: As a result of DSC analysis, it was 0.8 ± 0.07, skewness -0.8, kurtosis 0.61, and 95% CI was 0.79~0.82. To analyze the deviation of the central tongue shift during the treatment period, a 95% confidence interval for shift in the LR, SI, and AP directions were indicated, and a one-sample t-test for 0, which is an ideal value in the deviation(n=144). As a result of the t-test, the mean and SD in the LR and SI directions were 0.01 ± 0.14 cm (p→.05), 0.03 ± 0.25 cm (p→.05), and -0.08 ± 0.25 cm (p ←.05) in the AP direction. In the case of unilateral parotid cancer patients, the Dmean to the tongue of patients using BinkieRTTM was 16.92% ± 3.58% compared to the prescribed dose, and 23.99% ± 10.86% of patients with Paraffin Wax, indicating that the tongue dose was relatively lower when using BinkieRTTM (p←.05). On the other hand, among nasal cavity cancer patients, the Dmean of tongue dose for patients who used BinkieRTTM was 4.4% ± 5.6%, and for those who used mouthpiece, 5.9% ± 6.8%, but it was not statistically significant (p→.05). The relative electron density of Paraffin Wax, BinkieRTTM and Putty is 0.94, 0.99, 1.26 and the mass density is 0.95, 0.99 and 1.32 (g/cc), Transmission Factor is 0.99, 0.98, 0.96 respectively. Conclusion: The result of the tongue DSC analysis over the treatment period was about 0.8 and Deviation of the center of tongue shifts were within 0.2 cm, the reproducibility was more likely excellent. In the case of unilateral head and neck cancer patients, it was found that the use of BinkieRTTM rather than Paraffin Wax or Putty can reduce the unnecessary dose irradiated to the tongue. This study might be useful to understand of BinkieRTTM's properties and advantages. And also it could be another considered option as oral stent to keep the reproducibility of tongue and reducing dose during head and neck radiation treatments.