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http://dx.doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2020.22.4.268

Evaluation of Regional Flowering Phenological Models in Niitaka Pear by Temperature Patterns  

Kim, Jin-Hee (National Center for Agro-Meteorology)
Yun, Eun-jeong (National Center for Agro-Meteorology)
Kim, Dae-jun (National Center for Agro-Meteorology)
Kang, DaeGyoon (National Center for Agro-Meteorology)
Seo, Bo Hun (Department of Plant Science, Seoul National University)
Shim, Kyo-Moon (Climate Change & Agroecology Division, National Institute of Agricultural Sciences, RDA)
Publication Information
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology / v.22, no.4, 2020 , pp. 268-278 More about this Journal
Abstract
Flowering time has been put forward due to the recent abnormally warm winter, which often caused damages of flower buds by late frosts persistently. In the present study, cumulative chill unit and cumulative heat unit of Niitaka pear, which are required for releasing the endogenous dormancy and for flowering after breaking dormancy, respectively, were compared between flowering time prediction models used in South K orea. Observation weather data were collected at eight locations for the recent three years from 2018-2020. The dates of full bloom were also collected to determine the confidence level of models including DVR, mDVR and CD models. It was found that mDVR model tended to have smaller values (8.4%) of the coefficient of variation (cv) of chill units than any other models. The CD model tended to have a low value of cv (17.5%) for calculation of heat unit required to reach flowering after breaking dormancy. The mDVR model had the most accurate prediction of full bloom during the study period compared with the other models. The DVR model usually had poor skills in prediction of full bloom dates. In particular, the error of the DVR model was large especially in southern coastal areas (e.g., Ulju and Sacheon) where the temperature was warm. Our results indicated that the mDVR model had relatively consistent accuracy in prediction of full bloom dates over region and years of interest. When observation data for full bloom date are compiled for an extended period, the full bloom date can be predicted with greater accuracy improving the mDVR model further.
Keywords
Pear; Chilling requirement; Heating requirement; Full bloom; Phenological model;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 8  (Citation Analysis)
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