• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.20 no.5
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• pp.377-385
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• 2013

We consider a compound Poisson risk model in which the premium rate changes when the surplus exceeds a threshold. The explicit form of the ruin probability for the risk model is obtained by deriving and using the overflow probability of the workload process in the corresponding M/G/1 queueing model.

• Journal of applied mathematics & informatics
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• v.26 no.1_2
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• pp.191-201
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• 2008

In this paper, we consider an insurance risk model governed by a compound Binomial arrival claim process and by a compound Binomial arrival premium process. Some formulas for the probabilities of ruin and the distribution of ruin time are given, we also prove the integral equation of the ultimate ruin probability and obtain the Lundberg inequality by the discrete martingale approach.

• Journal of the Korean Data and Information Science Society
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• v.23 no.6
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• pp.1289-1297
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• 2012

We consider a general compound Poisson risk model in which the premium rate is surplus dependent. We analyze the joint distribution of the surplus immediately before ruin, the deffcit at ruin and the time of ruin by solving the integro-differential equation for the Gerber-Shiu discounted penalty function.

• Communications for Statistical Applications and Methods
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• v.18 no.4
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• pp.433-443
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• 2011

We consider a compound Poisson risk model in which the premiums may depend on the state of the surplus process. By using the overflow probability of the workload process in the corresponding M/G/1 queueing model, we obtain the probability that the ruin occurs before the surplus reaches a given large value in the risk model. We also examplify the ruin probability in case of exponential claims.

• Toxicological Research
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• v.17
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• pp.17-24
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• 2001

Risk assessment is useful tool making good decisions on the risks of certain hazardous com-pound and suggests safe margin through scientific process using toxicological data, statistical tool, exposure value and relevant variants. The goal of risk management is to protect the public health from hazardous compound based on result of risk assessment having reality. For the suggestion of exact man-aging information, risk assessment must be designed to represent a "plausible estimate" of the exposure to the individuals and to minimize uncertainty. Risk assessment methodology and knowledge are expected to change more rapidly than before and up-to-date methodology should be applied in regulatory aspects through the Agency. For the useful application of risk assessment, the communication between the risk assessor and the risk manager is needed before the initiation of the risk assessment and upon its completion. Generally, the risk assessment itself as a practical tool in the regulatory decision making process would be regarded with social economic impact.ic impact.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2023.05a
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• pp.166-166
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• 2023

Compound hazards (CHs) are two or more extreme climate events combined which occur simultaneously in the same region at the same time. Compared to individual hazards, the combination of hazards that cause CHs can result in greater economic losses and deaths. While several extreme climate events have been recorded across Asia for the past decades, many studies have only focused on a single hazard. In this study, we assess the spatiotemporal pattern of dry compound hazards which includes drought, heatwave, fire and wind across Asia for the last 42 years (1980-2021) using the historical data from ERA5 Reanalysis dataset. We utilize a daily spatial data of each climate event to assess the occurrence of such compound hazards on a daily basis. Heatwave, fire and wind hazard occurrences are analyzed using daily percentile-based thresholds while a pre-defined threshold for SPI is applied for drought occurrence. Then, the occurrence of each type of compound hazard is taken from overlapping the map of daily occurrences of a single hazard. Lastly, a multivariate assessment are conducted to quantify the occurrence frequency, hotspots and trends of each type of compound hazard across Asia. By conducting a multivariate analysis of the occurrence of these compound hazards, we identify the relationships and interactions in dry compound hazards including droughts, heatwaves, fires, and winds, ultimately leading to better-informed decisions and strategies in the natural risk management.

• International Journal of Highway Engineering
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• v.19 no.6
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• pp.183-190
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• 2017

PURPOSES : The objective of this study is to establish the traffic volume-based warrants of right-turn lanes at unsignalized intersections and to introduce a risk probability methodology based on the warrants. METHODS : In this study, a risk probability of a potential rear-end collision is applied between a right-turn vehicle and the immediately following through vehicle. Using the shifted negative exponential model and the compound probability theorem, the risk probability can be expressed as the function of directional volumes and the percentage of right-turns for a two-lane and four-lane highway, respectively. RESULTS : Based on the risk probablity, guidelines for installing right-turn lanes on two-lane and four-lane highways were developed. The risk probability also showed rationality by comparing with right-turn same-direction conflicts observed in-situ. CONCLUSIONS : The results of our study define the total approaching volumes to encourage a right-turn lane as a function of operating speed, percentage of right-turn, and number of lanes.

• Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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• v.50 no.4
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• pp.277-288
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• 2017

A probabilistic risk analysis of levee system estimates the overall level of flood risk associated with the levee system, according to a series of possible flood scenarios. It requires the uncertainty analysis of all the risk components, including hydrological, hydraulic and geotechnical parts computed by employing MCMC (Markov Chain Monte Carlo), MCS (Monte Carlo Simulation) and FOSM (First-Order Second Moment), presents a joint probability combined each probability. The methodology was applied to a 12.5 km reach from upstream to downstream of the Gangjeong-Goryeong weir, including 6 levee reaches, in Nakdong river. Overtopping risks were estimated by computing flood stage corresponding to 100/200 year high quantile (97.5%) design flood causing levee overflow. Geotechnical risks were evaluated by considering seepage, slope stability, and rapid drawdown along the levee reach without overflow. A probability-based compound risk will contribute to rising effect of safety and economic aspects for levee design, then expect to use the index for riverside structure design in the future.

• Journal of Korean Institute of Industrial Engineers
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• v.40 no.2
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• pp.195-204
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• 2014

The transition from fossil to renewable energy is inevitable due to fossil depletion. So, Renewable energy is very important for energy security and economic growth although it's R&D is long-term and high risky project. We propose new valuation method which combined system dynamics and compound real option method for long-term and high risk projects such as renewable energy. This method can show dynamic valuation results for the complex causal interaction and be easy for Monte-Carlo simulation to estimate volatility. And it can reflect the value of flexible decision for uncertainty. We applied the empirical analysis for Korea's photovoltaic industry by using this method. As results by empirical analysis, photovoltaic's R&D has high valuation using this method compared by traditional valuation methods such as DCF.

• Molecular & Cellular Toxicology
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• v.4 no.3
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• pp.260-266
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• 2008

Recently, there has been scientific discussion on the utility of -omics techniques such as genomics, proteomics, and metabolomics within toxicological research and mechanism-based risk assessment. Toxicogenomics is a novel approach integrating the expression analysis of genes (genomic) or proteins (proteomic) with traditional toxicological methods. Since 1999, the toxicogenomic approach has been extensively applied for regulatory purposes in order to understand the potential toxic mechanisms that result from chemical compound exposures. Therefore, this article's purpose was to consider the utility of toxicogenomic profiles for improved risk assessment, explore the current limitations in applying toxicogenomics to regulation, and finally, to rationalize possible avenues to resolve some of the major challenges. Based on many recent works, the significant impact toxicogenomic techniques would have on human health risk assessment is better identification of toxicity pathways or mode-of-actions (MOAs). In addition, the application of toxicogenomics in risk assessment and regulation has proven to be cost effective in terms of screening unknown toxicants prior to more extensive and costly experimental evaluation. However, to maximize the utility of these techniques in regulation, researchers and regulators must resolve many parallel challenges with regard to data collection, integration, and interpretation. Furthermore, standard guidance has to be prepared for researchers and assessors on the scientifically appropriate use of toxicogenomic profiles in risk assessment. The National Institute of Toxicological Research (NITR) looks forward to an ongoing role as leader in addressing the challenges associated with the scientifically sound use of toxicogenomics data in risk assessment.