• Title/Summary/Keyword: Composite Indicators

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A Study on AI-based Composite Supplementary Index for Complementing the Composite Index of Business Indicators (경기종합지수 보완을 위한 AI기반의 합성보조지수 연구)

  • JUNG, NAK HYUN;Taeyeon Oh;Kim, Kang Hee
    • Journal of Korean Society for Quality Management
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    • v.51 no.3
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    • pp.363-379
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    • 2023
  • Purpose: The main objective of this research is to construct an AI-based Composite Supplementary Index (ACSI) model to achieve accurate predictions of the Composite Index of Business Indicators. By incorporating various economic indicators as independent variables, the ACSI model enables the prediction and analysis of both the leading index (CLI) and coincident index (CCI). Methods: This study proposes an AI-based Composite Supplementary Index (ACSI) model that leverages diverse economic indicators as independent variables to forecast leading and coincident economic indicators. To evaluate the model's performance, advanced machine learning techniques including MLP, RNN, LSTM, and GRU were employed. Furthermore, the study explores the potential of employing deep learning models to train the weights associated with the independent variables that constitute the composite supplementary index. Results: The experimental results demonstrate the superior accuracy of the proposed composite supple- mentary index model in predicting leading and coincident economic indicators. Consequently, this model proves to be highly effective in forecasting economic cycles. Conclusion: In conclusion, the developed AI-based Composite Supplementary Index (ACSI) model successfully predicts the Composite Index of Business Indicators. Apart from its utility in management, economics, and investment domains, this model serves as a valuable indicator supporting policy-making and decision-making processes related to the economy.

A study on composite precedence indices focusing on Jeju (제주지역 경기선행종합지수에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Kye Chul;Kim, Myung Joon;Kim, Yeong-Hwa
    • The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.243-255
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    • 2016
  • The developed composite index has limits to estimate and predict economic status due to economic pattern change and the response change of explanatory variables. A higher precedence individual indicators should be selected to predict the future accurately. In this study, effectiveness of Jeju Island precedence indicators consists of constituents in the area, the consumer price index, services production index, mining and manufacturing production index. The average temperature of Seogwipo and credit card purchase amount is reviewed as an economic turning point consideration and time lag correlation analysis with real data. In addition, we suggest the proper reference cycle in Jeju composite precedence index and evaluate the configuration in leading indicators for Jeju by comparing national economic indicators. Based on the derived results, the current problems of Jeju Island precedence indicators will be illustrated and the improvement methods to estimate a regional composite index will be suggested.

A diagnostic approach for concrete dam deformation monitoring

  • Hao Gu;Zihan Jiang;Meng Yang;Li Shi;Xi Lu;Wenhan Cao;Kun Zhou;Lei Tang
    • Steel and Composite Structures
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    • v.49 no.6
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    • pp.701-711
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    • 2023
  • In order to fully reflect variation characteristics of composite concrete dam health state, the monitoring data is applied to diagnose composite concrete dam health state. Composite concrete dam lesion development to wreckage is a precursor, and its health status can be judged. The monitoring data are generally non-linear and unsteady time series, which contain chaotic information that cannot be characterized. Thus, it could generate huge influence for the construction of monitoring models and the formulation of corresponding health diagnostic indicators. This multi-scale diagnosis process is from point to whole. Chaotic characteristics are often contained in the monitoring data. If chaotic characteristics could be extracted for reflecting concrete dam health state and the corresponding diagnostic indicators will be formulated, the theory and method of diagnosing concrete dam health state can be huge improved. Therefore, the chaotic characteristics of monitoring data are considered. And, the extracting method of the chaotic components is studied from monitoring data based on fuzzy dynamic cross-correlation factor method. Finally, a method is proposed for formulating composite concrete dam health state indicators. This method can effectively distinguish chaotic systems from deterministic systems and reflect the health state of concrete dam in service.

Comparative Analysis of the 2030 GHG Reduction Target for Eleven Major Countries and Its Implications (주요국의 2030 온실가스 감축목표에 대한 비교분석과 시사점)

  • Oh, Jin-Gyu
    • Journal of Climate Change Research
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.357-368
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    • 2018
  • The Paris Agreement, adopted in 2015, requires global mitigation actions by all countries, whether they are developed or developing countries. All member countries prepared and communicated a greenhouse gas reduction target, formally called the Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC). There has been some concern regarding whether the INDCs communicated are sufficient to achieve the emissions reduction needed to hold the increase in global temperature to $2^{\circ}C$ above pre-industrial levels. How to address this emissions gap in an equitable and fair manner remains controversial. Beginning in the year 2023, global stocktaking under the Paris Agreement will be performed by the Conference of the Parties to assess progress towards temperature goals. The present study, based on various composite indicators reflecting equity, fairness, ability and efficiency, analyzed the GHG reduction targets of eleven major countries and the ambitiousness of these targets. Employing share indicators and comparative ratio indicators (resulting in eight composite indicators), this study showed that when share indicators are applied, Korea's appropriate reduction requirement rate is relatively low at 1~2%. However, when comparative ratio indicators are applied, Korea's appropriate reduction requirement rate increases dramatically to 6~11%. In a similar vein, when share indicators are applied, Korea's 2030 target is very ambitious compared to other countries, while the opposite is seen with comparative ratio indicators. This strongly suggests that Korea needs to apply more share indicators than comparative ratio indicators when discussing the equitable and ambitious role of Korea in the climate debate.

A Study on the Development of National Composite S&T Indices and Their Application (국가종합과학기술지수의 도출과 적용: 종합지수를 통한 주요 선진국과의 국가과학기술활동 비교)

  • Mun, Hye-Seon;Lee, Jeong-Dong
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.55-71
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    • 2005
  • We attempt to make three composite Science and Technology (S&T) indices for overall understanding of national S&T by aggregation of various S&T indicators using fuzzy set theory and then use these Indices to compare the S&T activities of Korea with those of five developed countries (France, Germany, Japan, the U.K., the U.S.). The overall results suggest that although the S&T indices of Korea still lag behind those of developed countries, they have grown rapidly and continuously and, as a result, the S&T gaps between Korea and developed countries have narrowed. However, the capability of Korea to transform its R&D input into final economic output has not yet matched that of developed countries.

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A Constructing the Composite Index using Unobserved Component Model and its Application (비관측요인모형을 이용한 종합지표 작성 및 적용)

  • Kang, Gi-Choon;Kim, Myung-Jig
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.220-227
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    • 2014
  • This paper introduces and applies the World Bank's methodology for constructing composite index or aggregating indicators. After recalculating the world competitiveness index of IMD using Unobserved Component Model(UCM) we compare it with the existing index and try to find some implications. We also try to construct the composite index for measuring the performance of local finance. We employ the Principal Component Analysis(PCA) for validating the appropriateness of selected indicators used in making the composite index. We found that the UCM and PCA are very useful and will be used widely in various evaluations such as regional development, local finance, local competitiveness and public enterprise, etc.

Statistical bias indicators for the long-term displacement of steel-concrete composite beams

  • Moreno, Julian A.;Tamayo, Jorge L.P.;Morsch, Inacio B.;Miranda, Marcela P.;Reginato, Lucas H.
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.24 no.4
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    • pp.379-397
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    • 2019
  • Steel-concrete composite beams are widely employed in constructions and their performance at the serviceability stage is of concern among practitioners and design regulations. In this context, an accurate evaluation of long-term deflections via various rheological concrete models is needed. In this work, the performance and predict capability of some concrete creep and shrinkage models ACI, CEB, B3, FIB and GL2000 are ascertained, and compared by using statistical bias indicators. Ten steel-concrete composite beams with existing experimental and numerical results are then modeled for this purpose. The proposed modeling technique uses the finite element method, where the concrete slab and steel beam are modeled with shell finite elements. Concrete is considered as an aging viscoelastic material and cracking is treated with the common smeared approach. The results show that when the experimental ultimate shrinkage strain is used for calibration, all studied rheological models predict nearly similar deflections, which agree with the experimental data. In contrast, significance differences are encountered for some models, when none calibration is made prior to. A value between twenty and thirty times the cracking strain is recommended for the ultimate tensile strain in the tension stiffening model. Also, increasing the relative humidity and decreasing the ambient temperature can lead to a substantial reduction of slab cracking for beams under negative flexure. Finally, there is not a unique rheological model that clearly excels in all scenarios.

Weighting of Acute Myocardial Infarction Quality Indicators using Delphi Method (델파이기법을 이용한 급성심근경색증 질 평가지표 가중치 부여)

  • Kim, Hyung Seon;Cho, Yeon Hee
    • Journal of Korean Public Health Nursing
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    • v.28 no.3
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    • pp.565-573
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    • 2014
  • Purpose: Health Insurance Review & Assessment Service (HIRA) launched an Acute Myocardial Infarction(AMI) assessment for the Payment For Performance(Quality Incentives) Pilot Project from July 2007. Assessment measures of AMI were composed of five process measures and one outcome measure, and each measure was incorporated into one composite quality score to Pay for Performance. Method: For calculation of composite quality score, we considered weighting for the measures using the Delphi method. The questionnaire was composed of three measure groups, 'Reperfusion rate'(Fibrolytic therapy received within 60 minutes of hospital arrival, Primary Percutaneous Coronary Intervention within 120 minutes of hospital arrival), 'Medication prescription rate'(Aspirin at arrival, Aspirin prescribed at discharge, Beta-blocker prescribed at discharge) and 'Survival Index'(30-day mortality rate). Result: A panel composed of 18 and completed a questionnaire by allocation of 10 scores to the three above mentioned measure groups. The Delphi was carried out until three rounds of surveys. In conclusion, each measure group was weighted differently and the 10 scores were allocated as 4.5 to 'Reperfusion rate', 2.5 to 'Medication prescription rate', and 3.0 to 'Survival Index'. Conclusion: The results of this study proposed the calculation method for weighting of Acute Myocardial Infarction quality indicators.

A Study on the Development of National Technology Commercialization Indicators (국가기술사업화지표 개발 방안 연구)

  • Choi Sung-Ho;Moon Hye-Seon
    • Journal of Korea Technology Innovation Society
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    • v.9 no.1
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    • pp.26-51
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    • 2006
  • Recently technology commercialization has been the focus of technology Promotion Policy in Korea. This paper tries to develop a composite indicator for measuring trends and prospects of national technology commercialization through integrating large amount of information into easily understood formats. The indicator is composed of five sector indicators including activity, cooperation or networking, performance, environment, and psychology indicators, each of which aggregates five individual variables. The statistical method of standardizing and weighting variables in the aggregation process are also mentioned. This indicator is expected to be a useful monitoring and policy tool for the Korean technology market.

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과학기술 발전특성에 근거한 국가군 분류

  • 권철신;박준호
    • Journal of Technology Innovation
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    • v.9 no.2
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    • pp.98-119
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    • 2001
  • The purpose of this study is to classify the world countries into several cluste on the basis of the characteristics of the scientific and technological development, and analyse the main factors of development in each cluster. Major contributions of this study can be summarized as follows: (1) In the process of producing the composite indicators, individual indicators were adopted only if they met the condition which were logically compliable for the given time periods. Hence this thesis supports the reliability in comparing results of analysis in each period of years. (2) Could clearly capture the development characteristics and its changing process in each country.

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