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http://dx.doi.org/10.5351/KJAS.2016.29.1.243

A study on composite precedence indices focusing on Jeju  

Kim, Kye Chul (Statistics Korea)
Kim, Myung Joon (Department of Business Statistics, Hannam University)
Kim, Yeong-Hwa (Department of Applied Statistics, Chung-Ang University)
Publication Information
The Korean Journal of Applied Statistics / v.29, no.1, 2016 , pp. 243-255 More about this Journal
Abstract
The developed composite index has limits to estimate and predict economic status due to economic pattern change and the response change of explanatory variables. A higher precedence individual indicators should be selected to predict the future accurately. In this study, effectiveness of Jeju Island precedence indicators consists of constituents in the area, the consumer price index, services production index, mining and manufacturing production index. The average temperature of Seogwipo and credit card purchase amount is reviewed as an economic turning point consideration and time lag correlation analysis with real data. In addition, we suggest the proper reference cycle in Jeju composite precedence index and evaluate the configuration in leading indicators for Jeju by comparing national economic indicators. Based on the derived results, the current problems of Jeju Island precedence indicators will be illustrated and the improvement methods to estimate a regional composite index will be suggested.
Keywords
precedence indicators; reference cycle; time lag correlation analysis;
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