• 한국시뮬레이션학회논문지
• /
• 제29권4호
• /
• pp.55-64
• /
• 2020

2011년 한-EU 자유무역협정 발효 이후, 한국 자동차 시장은 급성장하였으며 시장 내 기업 간 경쟁 양상은 심화되고 있다. 유럽산 자동차 기업은 가격 경쟁력을 보유하게 되었고, 이로 인해 한국 자동차 기업과의 경쟁이 격화되었다. 이와 같은 상황 속에서 한국 자동차 시장에 관한 다양한 연구가 수행되어왔으나, 시장 영향요인 분석과 소비자 분석 등의 연구가 주를 이루었고 시장 내 경쟁 다이나믹스 분석에 관한 연구는 전무한 상황이다. 본 연구에서는 한국 자동차 시장 내 주요 기업인 현대자동차, 기아자동차, 메르세데스-벤츠, BMW의 경쟁 다이나믹스를 분석하였다. Lotka-Volterra(LV) 모형을 사용하여 주요 기업들의 경쟁 관계를 모델링하였고, Moving Window 기법을 적용하여 시간의 흐름에 따른 기업 간 경쟁 다이나믹스를 분석하고 이를 정량적으로 도출하였다. 효과적인 해석을 위해, 도출된 경쟁 다이나믹스는 다양한 영향요인을 바탕으로 세분화되어 분석하였다.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제7권2호
• /
• pp.121-132
• /
• 2006

A container terminal should concentrate on efficient terminal operation in the long view and analyze an effect through introduction of hi-technology, automated equipments and intelligent information system, when they want to improve their reliability and competitive power in intense global competition. To do this, first this study finds out factors which affect competitive power of a container terminal, and relation between them. And then we used System Dynamics method to analyze an effect according to a value fluctuation of the factors in the long term.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제1권1호
• /
• pp.103-131
• /
• 2000

If a system such as a port has a large boundary and complexity, and the system's substance is considered as a black box, forecast accuracy will be very low. Futhermore various components in a port exert significant influence on each other. To copy with these problem the form of structure models were introduced by using SD method. The Competitive Ports Model had several sub-systems consisting of each Unit Port models, and each Unit Port model was made by quantitative, qualitative factors and their feedback loops. The fact that all components of one port have influence on the components of the other ports should be taken into account to construct Competitive Port Models. However, with the current approach that is impossible, and in this paper therefore, models were simplified by HFP adapted to integrate level variables of unit port models. Although many studies on modelling of port competitive situation have been conducted, both theoretical frame and methodology are still very weak. In this study, a new algorithm called ESD(Extensional System Dynamics) for the evaluation of port competition was presented, and applied to simulate port systems in northeast asia.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제3권1호
• /
• pp.43-60
• /
• 2002

This paper describes the forecast of wholesale price in competitive Korean electricity market using the system dynamics approach. The system dynamics concepts have been implemented with the Ithink software. This software facilitates the development of stock and flow model with information feedback. Using this model, the future wholesale electricity price can be computed hour by hour, quarterly, and yearly. This model also gives the energy planner the opportunity to create different scenarios for the future of deregulated wholesale markets in Korea. Also It will lead to increased understanding of competitive wholesale market as a complex, dynamic system. Research results show that the plant construction appeared in waves of boom and bust in Korean electricity market like real estate construction. That is, the Korea wholesale market's new power plants and the market price will appear the Boom and Bust cycle. It is very similar behavior as real estate industry. In case of consideration of DSM program, The DSM savings lead to a somewhat different timing of the booms in construction and of price spikes. But the DSM programs do not eliminated the fundamental dynamics of the boom and bust. And the wholesale price is maintained at the lower level compared to the case of without DSM program. However, the unexpected result is found that due to the lower market price, Investor make significantly less investment in new CCs, which leads to the higher wholesale price after 2010. It suggests that the DSM Policy must be implemented with the dynamics of competitive Electricity Market.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 1999년도 창립학술대회발표논문집
• /
• pp.105-132
• /
• 1999

If a system such as a port has a large boundary and complexity, and the system's substance is considered as a black box, forecast accuracy will be very low. Furthermore various components in a port exert significant influence on each other. To copy with these problem the form of structure models were introduced by using SD method. The Competitive Ports Model had several sub-systems consisting of each Unit Port models, and each Unit Port model was made by quantitative, qualitative factors and their feedback loops. The fact that all components of one port have influence on the components of the other ports should be taken into account to construct Competitive Port Models. However, with the current approach that is impossible, and in this paper, therefore, models were simplified by HFP adapted to integrate level variables of unit port models. Although many studies on modelling of port competitive situation have been conducted, both theoretical frame and methodology are still very weak. In this study, a new algorithm called ESD(Extensional System Dynamics) for the evaluation of port competition was presented, and applied to simulate port systems in northeast Asia.

• 전자공학회논문지C
• /
• 제34C권7호
• /
• pp.82-91
• /
• 1997

In this paper, we analyze the dynamics of langevine competitive learning neural network based on its fokker-plank equation. From the viewpont of the stochastic differential equation (SDE), langevine competitive learning equation is one of langevine stochastic differential equation and has the diffusin equation on the topological space (.ohm., F, P) with probability measure. We derive the fokker-plank equation from the proposed algorithm and prove by introducing a infinitestimal operator for markov semigroups, that the weight vector in the particular simplex can converge to the globally optimal point under the condition of some convex or pseudo-convex performance measure function. Experimental resutls for pattern recognition of the remote sensing data indicate the superiority of langevine competitive learning neural network in comparison to the conventional competitive learning neural network.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국시스템다이내믹스학회 2006년도 추계학술대회 발표논문집
• /
• pp.93-105
• /
• 2006

A container terminal should concentrate on efficient terminal operation in the long view and analyze an effect through introduction of hi-technology, automated equipments and intelligent information system, when they want to improve their reliability and competitive power in intense global competition. To do this, first this study finds out factors which affect competitive power of a container terminal, and relation between them. And then we used System Dynamics method to analyze an effect according to a value fluctuation of the factors in the long term.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제2권2호
• /
• pp.25-40
• /
• 2001

This paper describes the forecast of power plant construction in a competitive korean electricity market. In Korea, KEPCO (Korea Electric Power Corporation, fully controlled by government) was responsible for from the production of the electricity to the sale of electricity to customer. However, the generation part is separated from KEPCO and six generation companies were established for whole sale competition from April 1st, 2001. The generation companies consist of five fossil power companies and one nuclear power company in Korea at present time. Fossil power companies are scheduled to be sold to private companies including foreign investors. Nuclear power company is owned and controlled by government. The competition in generation market will start from 2003. ISO (Independence System Operator will purchase the electricity from the power exchange market. The market price is determined by the SMP(System Marginal Price) which is decided by the balance between demand and supply of electricity in power exchange market. Under this uncertain circumstance, the energy policy planners such as government are interested to the construction of the power plant in the future. These interests are accelerated due to the recent shortage of electricity supply in California. In the competitive market, investors are no longer interested in the investment for the capital intensive, long lead time generating technologies such as nuclear and coal plants. Large unclear and coal plants were no longer the top choices. Instead, investors in the competitive market are interested in smaller, more efficient, cheaper, cleaner technologies such as CCGT(Combined Cycle Gas Turbine). Electricity is treated as commodity in the competitive market. The investors behavior in the commodity market shows that the new investment decision is made when the market price exceeds the sum of capital cost and variable cost of the new facility and the existing facility utilization depends on the marginal cost of the facility. This investors behavior can be applied to the new investments for the power plant. Under these postulations, there is the potential for power plant construction to appear in waves causing alternating periods of over and under supply of electricity like commodity production or real estate production. A computer model was developed to sturdy the possibility that construction will appear in waves of boom and bust in Korean electricity market. This model was constructed using System Dynamics method pioneered by Forrester(MIT, 1961) and explained in recent text by Sternman (Business Dynamics, MIT, 2000) and the recent work by Andrew Ford(Energy Policy, 1999). This model was designed based on the Energy Policy results(Ford, 1999) with parameters for loads and resources in Korea. This Korea Market Model was developed and tested in a small scale project to demonstrate the usefulness of the System Dynamics approach. Korea electricity market is isolated and not allowed to import electricity from outsides. In this model, the base load such as unclear and large coal power plant are assumed to be user specified investment and only CCGT is selected for new investment by investors in the market. This model may be used to learn if government investment in new unclear plants could compensate for the unstable actions of private developers. This model can be used to test the policy focused on the role of unclear investments over time. This model also can be used to test whether the future power plant construction can meet the government targets for the mix of generating resources and to test whether to maintain stable price in the spot market.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
• /
• 한국경영과학회 2004년도 추계학술대회 및 정기총회
• /
• pp.17-20
• /
• 2004

This research is focusing on industry dynamics of Korean Mobile Telecommunications Industry. Industry data from 1997 to April 2004 are used to analyze industry dynamics through variety use of case study and system dynamics modeling. As results, we found the importance of initial endowment, firm reputation, and handset subsidy strategy. Along with these player-based characteristics, government impacts on dynamics of competition are also investigated.

• 한국시스템다이내믹스연구
• /
• 제7권2호
• /
• pp.35-56
• /
• 2006

Korea is implementing strong regulatory derives such as Feed in Tariff to provide incentives for renewable energy developers. But if the government is planning to increase the renewable capacity with only "Price policy" not considering the investors behavior in the competitive electricity market, the policy would be failed. It is necessary system thinking and simulation model analysis to decide government's incentive goal. This study is focusing on the assesment of the competitiveness of renewable energy with the current Feed in Tariff incentives compared to the traditional energy source, specially coal and gas. The simulation results show that the market penetration of renewable energy with the current Feed-in-Tariff level is about 60-70% of the government goal under condition that the solar energy and fuel cell are assumed to provide the whole capacity set in the governmental goal. If the contribution from solar and fuel cell is lower than planned, the total penetration of renewable energy will be dropped more. Notably, Wind power turned out to be proved only 10% of government goal because of its low availability.