• Title/Summary/Keyword: Collapse prediction

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INFLOWS IN MASSIVE STAR FORMATION REGIONS

  • WU, YUEFANG;LIU, TIE;QIN, SHENGLI
    • Publications of The Korean Astronomical Society
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    • v.30 no.2
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    • pp.93-97
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    • 2015
  • How high-mass stars form is currently unclear. Calculations suggest that the radiation pressure of a forming star can halt spherical infall, preventing further growth when it reaches $10M_{\odot}$. Two major theoretical models on the further growth of stellar mass have been proposed. One model suggests the merging of less massive stellar objects, and the other is through accretion, but with the help of a disk. Inflow motions are key evidence for how forming stars gain further mass to build up massive stars. Recent developments in technology have boosted the search for inflow motion. A number of high-mass collapse candidates were obtained with single dish observations, and mostly showed blue profiles. Infalling signatures seem to be more common in regions which have developed radiation pressure than in younger cores, which is the opposite of the theoretical prediction and is also very different from observations of low mass star formation. Interferometer studies so far confirm this tendency with more obvious blue profiles or inverse P Cygni profiles. Results seem to favor the accretion model. However, the evolution of the infall motion in massive star forming cores needs to be further explored. Direct evidence for monolithic or competitive collapse processes is still lacking. ALMA will enable us to probe more detail of the gravitional processes.

Estimation and Prediction of Financial Distress: Non-Financial Firms in Bursa Malaysia

  • HIONG, Hii King;JALIL, Muhammad Farhan;SENG, Andrew Tiong Hock
    • The Journal of Asian Finance, Economics and Business
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    • v.8 no.8
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    • pp.1-12
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    • 2021
  • Altman's Z-score is used to measure a company's financial health and to predict the probability that a company will collapse within 2 years. It is proven to be very accurate to forecast bankruptcy in a wide variety of contexts and markets. The goal of this study is to use Altman's Z-score model to forecast insolvency in non-financial publicly traded enterprises. Non-financial firms are a significant industry in Malaysia, and current trends of consolidation and long-term government subsidies make assessing the financial health of such businesses critical not just for the owners, but also for other stakeholders. The sample of this study includes 84 listed companies in the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange. Of the 84 companies, 52 are considered high risk, and 32 are considered low-risk companies. Secondary data for the analysis was gathered from chosen companies' financial reports. The findings of this study show that the Altman model may be used to forecast a company's financial collapse. It dispelled any reservations about the model's legitimacy and the utility of applying it to predict the likelihood of bankruptcy in a company. The findings of this study have significant consequences for investors, creditors, and corporate management. Portfolio managers may make better selections by not investing in companies that have proved to be in danger of failing if they understand the variables that contribute to corporate distress.

Probability-based prediction of residual displacement for SDOF using nonlinear static analysis

  • Feng, Zhibin;Gong, Jinxin
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.571-584
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    • 2022
  • The residual displacement ratio (RDRs) response spectra have been generally used as an important means to evaluate the post-earthquake repairability, and the ratios of residual to maximum inelastic displacement are considered to be more appropriate for development of the spectra. This methodology, however, assumes that the expected residual displacement can be computed as the product of the RDRs and maximum inelastic displacement, without considering the correlation between these two variables, which inevitably introduces potential systematic error. For providing an adequately accurate estimate of residual displacement, while accounting for the collapse resistance performance prior to the repairability evaluation, a probability-based procedure to estimate the residual displacement demands using the nonlinear static analysis (NSA) is developed for single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems. To this end, the energy-based equivalent damping ratio used for NSA is revised to obtain the maximum displacement coincident with the nonlinear time history analysis (NTHA) results in the mean sense. Then, the possible systematic error resulted from RDRs spectra methodology is examined based on the NTHA results of SDOF systems. Finally, the statistical relation between the residual displacement and the NSA-based maximum displacement is established. The results indicate that the energy-based equivalent damping ratio will underestimate the damping for short period ranges, and overestimate the damping for longer period ranges. The RDRs spectra methodology generally leads to the results being non-conservative, depending on post-yield stiffness. The proposed approach emphasizes that the repairability evaluation should be based on the premise of no collapse, which matches with the current performance-based seismic assessment procedure.

A Study on the Application of GFRP Rock Bolt Sensor through Field Experiment and Numerical Analysis (현장실험과 수치해석을 통한 GFRP 록볼트 센서의 적용성 연구)

  • Lee, Seungjoo;Chang, Suk-Hyun;Lee, Kang-Il;Kim, Bumjoo;Heo, Joon;Kim, Yong-Seong
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.18 no.4
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    • pp.129-138
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    • 2019
  • In this study, the rebar rock bolt sensor and GFRP rock bolt sensor, which can be monitored, were embedded in a large model slope, and the behavior of slopes occurred in the early stage of slope collapse was analyzed after performing the field failure test, numerical analysis of the individual element method and finite element method. By comparing and analyzing the field test and numerical analysis results, field applicability of rock slope collapse monitoring on the rebar rock bolt sensor and GFRP rock bolt sensor was investigated. Through this study, smart slope collapse prediction and warning system was developed, which can be used to induce effective evacuation of residents living in the collapsible area by detecting landslide and ground decay precursor information in advance.

A Study on Experimental Prediction of Landslide in Korea Granite Weathered Soil using Scaled-down Model Test (축소모형 실험을 통한 국내 화강암 풍화토의 산사태 예측 실험 연구)

  • Son, In-Hwan;Oh, Yong-Thak;Lee, Su-Gon
    • Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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    • v.20 no.6
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    • pp.439-447
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    • 2019
  • In this study, experiments were conducted to establish appropriate measures for slopes with high risk of collapse and to obtain results for minimizing slope collapse damage by detecting the micro-displacement of soil in advance by installing a laser sensor and a vibration sensor in the landslide reduction model experiment. Also, the behavior characteristics of the soil layer due to rainfall and moisture ratio changes such as pore water pressure and moisture were analyzed through a landslide reduction model experiment. The artificial slope was created using granite weathering soil, and the resulting water ratio(water pressure, water) changes were measured at different rainfall conditions of 200mm/hr and 400mm/hr. Laser sensors and vibration sensors were applied to analyze the surface displacement, and the displacement time were compared with each other by video analysis. Experiments have shown that higher rainfall intensity takes shorter time to reach the limit, and increase in the pore water pressure takes shorter time as well. Although the landslide model test does not fully reflect the site conditions, measurements of the time of detection of displacement generation using vibration sensors show that the timing of collapse is faster than the method using laser sensors. If ground displacement measurements using sensors are continuously carried out in preparation for landslides, it is considered highly likely to be utilized as basic data for predicting slope collapse, reducing damage, and activating the measurement industry.

Prediction of the Area Inundated by Lake Effluent According to Hypothetical Collapse Scenarios of Cheonji Ground at Mt. Baekdu (백두산 천지 붕괴 가상 시나리오 별 천지못 유출수의 피해영향범위 예측)

  • Suh, Jangwon;Yi, Huiuk;Kim, Sung-Min;Park, Hyeong-Dong
    • The Journal of Engineering Geology
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    • v.23 no.4
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    • pp.409-425
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    • 2013
  • This study presents a prediction of a time-series of the area inundated by effluent from Heavenly Lake caused by ground behavior prior to a volcanic eruption. A GIS-based hydrological algorithm that considers the multi-flow direction of effluent, the absorption and storage capacity of the ground soil, the storage volume of the basin or the depression terrain, was developed. To analyze the propagation pattern, four hypothetical collapse zones on the cheonji ground were set, considering the topographical characteristics and distributions of volcanic rocks at Mt. Baekdu. The results indicate that at 3 hours after collapse, for both scenarios 1 and 2 (collapses of the entire/southern boundary of cheonji), a flood hazard exists for villages in China, but not for those on the North Korean side of the mountain, due to the topographical characteristics of Mt. Baekdu. It is predicted that villages in both North Korea and China would be significantly damaged by flood inundation at 3 hours elapsed time for both scenarios 3 and 4 (collapses on the southern boundary of cheonji and on the southeastern-peak area).

Slope Failure Prediction through the Analysis of Surface Ground Deformation on Field Model Experiment (현장모형실험 기반 표층거동분석을 통한 사면붕괴 예측)

  • Park, Sung-Yong;Min, Yeon-Sik;Kang, Min-seo;Jung, Hee-Don;Sami, Ghazali-Flimban;Kim, Yong-Seong
    • Journal of the Korean Geosynthetics Society
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    • v.16 no.3
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    • pp.1-10
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    • 2017
  • Recently, one of the natural disasters, landslide is causing huge damage to people and properties. In order to minimize the damage caused by continuous landslide, a scientific management system is needed for technologies related to measurement and monitoring system. This study aims to establish a management system for landslide damage by prediction of slope failure. Ground behavior was predicted by surface ground deformation in case of slope failure, and the change in ground displacement was observed as slope surface. As a result, during the slope failure, the ground deformation has the collapse section, the after collapse precursor section, the acceleration section and the burst acceleration section. In all cases, increase in displacement with time was observed as a slope failure, and it is very important event of measurement and maintenance of risky slope. In the future, it can be used as basic data of slope management standard through continuous research. And it can contribute to reduction of landslide damage and activation of measurement industry.

Proposal of Construction System to prevent Dongbari Collapse by applying IT Convergence Technology (IT 융합기술을 적용한 동바리 붕괴사고 방지를 위한 건설공사 시스템 제안)

  • Jeon, Kyong-Deck;Shin, Seung-Jung
    • The Journal of the Institute of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.20 no.5
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    • pp.113-120
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    • 2020
  • Safety accidents, called industrial accidents in construction work, are causing a lot of casualties, property damage and social controversy in the event of an accident, causing the construction to lose public confidence. The risk of safety accidents at construction sites may continue to increase as the construction of high-rise, large-scale, and multi-purpose complex buildings has increased in recent years. In particular, the most frequently constructed apartment construction among reinforced concrete buildings is designed and constructed with a wall-like structure with no beams for each floor, while the lower floors are made of lamen with columns and beams. As a result, the transfer beam or transfer slab to withstand the upper load is installed on the upper part of the Ramen structure, so the system Dongbari, which is installed as a temporary material during concrete laying construction, may collapse at any time during plowing and curing. The purpose of this study is to apply IT convergence technology to prevent the collapse of the system Dongbari during concrete installation, and to apply many of the variables that may occur during construction on a case-by-case basis to check the stability of the system Dongbari and to propose a model of the anti-conducting prediction system.

A Study on the Nonlinear Structural Analysis for Spent Nuclear Fuel Disposal Container and Bentonite Buffer (고준위폐기물 처분장치와 이를 감싸고 있는 벤토나이트 버퍼에 대한 비선형 구조해석)

  • 권영주;최석호
    • Proceedings of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute Conference
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    • 2002.04a
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    • pp.19-26
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    • 2002
  • In this paper, the nonlinear structural analysis for the composite structure of the spent nuclear fuel disposal container and the 50cm thick bentonite buffer is carried out to predict the collapse of the container while the sudden rock movement of 10cm is applied on the composite structure. This sudden rock movement is anticipated by the earthquake etc. at a deep underground. Horizontal symmetric rock movement is assumed in this structural analysis. Elastoplastic material model is adopted. Drucker-Prager yield criterion is used for the material yield prediction of the bentonite buffer and von-Mises yield criterion is used for the material yield prediction of the container(cast iron insert, copper outer shell and lid and bottom). Analysis results show that even though very large deformations occur beyond the yield point in the bentonite buffer, the container structure still endures elastic small strains and stresses below the yield strength. Hence, the 50cm thick bentonite buffer can protect the container safely against the 10cm sudden rock movement by earthquake etc.. Analysis results also show that bending deformations occur in the container structure due to the shear deformation of the bentonite buffer. The elastoplastic nonlinear structural analysis for the composite structure of the container and the bentonite buffer is performed using the finite element analysis code, NISA.

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An Elastoplastic Analysis for Spent Nuclear Fuel Disposal Container and Its Bentonite Buffer: Asymmetric Rock Movement (고준위폐기물 처분장치 및 완충장치에 대한 탄소성해석 : 비대칭 암반력)

  • 권영주;최석호
    • Transactions of Materials Processing
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    • v.12 no.5
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    • pp.479-486
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    • 2003
  • This paper presents an elastoplastic analysis for spent nuclear fuel disposal container and its 50 cm thick bentonite buffer to predict the collapse of the container while the horizontal asymmetric sudden rock movement of 10 cm is applied on the composite structure. This sudden rock movement is anticipated by the earthquake etc. at a deep underground. Elastoplastic material model is adopted. Drucker-Prager yield criterion is used for the material yield prediction of the bentonite buffer and von-Mises yield criterion is used for the material yield prediction of the container. Analysis results show that even though very large deformations occur beyond the yield point in the bentonite buffer, the container structure still endures elastic small strains and stresses below the yield strength. Hence, the asymmetric 50 cm thick bentonite buffer can protect the container safely against the 10 cm sudden rock movement by earthquake etc.. Analysis results also show that bending deformations occur in the container structure due to the shear deformation of the bentonite buffer. The finite element analysis code, NISA, is used for the analysis.