• Title/Summary/Keyword: Collapse Probability

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Failure Probability Estimation of Flaw in CANDU Pressure Tube Considering the Dimensional Change (가동중 중수로 압력관의 외경과 두꼐 변화를 고려한 결함의 파손확률 예측)

  • Kwak, Sang-Log;Lee, Joon-Seong;Kim, Young-Jin;Park, Youn-Won
    • Transactions of the Korean Society of Mechanical Engineers A
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    • v.26 no.11
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    • pp.2305-2311
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    • 2002
  • The pressure tube is a major component of the CANDU reactor, which supports nuclear fuel bundle and heavy water coolant. Pressure tubes are installed horizontally inside the reactor and only selected samples are periodically examined during in-service inspection. In this respect, a probabilistic safety assessment method is more appropriate fur the assessment of overall pressure tube safety. The failure behavior of CANDU pressure tubes, however, is governed by delayed hydride cracking which is the major difference from pipings and reactor pressure vessels. Since the delayed hydride cracking has more widely distributed governing parameters, it is impossible to apply a general PFM methodology directly. In this paper, a PFM methodology for the safety assessment of CANDU pressure tubes is introduced by applying Monte Carlo simulation in determining failure probability Initial hydrogen concentration, flaw shape and depth, axial and radial crack growth rate and fracture toughness were considered as probabilistic variables. Parametric study has been done under the base of pressure tube dimension and hydride precipitation temperature in calculating failure probability. Unstable fracture and plastic collapse are used for the failure assessment. The estimated failure probability showed about three-order difference with changing dimensions of pressure tube.

A New Methodology for the Rapid Calculation of System Reliability of Complex Structures

  • Park, Sooyong
    • Architectural research
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    • v.3 no.1
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    • pp.71-80
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    • 2001
  • It is quite difficult to calculate the collapse probability of a system such as statically indeterminate structure that has many possible modes or paths to complete failure and the problem has remained essentially unsolved. A structure is synthesized by several components or elements and its capacity to resist the given loads is a function of the capacity of the individual element. Thus it is reasonable to assess the probability of failure of the system based upon those of its elements. This paper proposes an efficient technique to directly assess the reliability of a complex structural system from the reliabilities of its components or elements. The theory for the calculation of the probability of a structural system is presented. The target requirements of the method and the fundamental assumptions governing the method are clearly stated. A portal frame and two trusses are selected to demonstrate the efficiency of the method by comparing the results obtained from the proposed method to those from the existing methods in the literature.

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Three-dimensional limit analysis of seismic stability of tunnel faces with quasi-static method

  • Zhang, B.;Wang, X.;Zhang, J.S.;Meng, F.
    • Geomechanics and Engineering
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    • v.13 no.2
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    • pp.301-318
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    • 2017
  • Based on the existing research results, a three-dimensional failure mechanism of tunnel face was constructed. The dynamic seismic effect was taken into account on the basis of quasi-static method, and the nonlinear Mohr-Coulomb failure criterion was introduced into the limit analysis by using the tangent technique. The collapse pressure along with the failure scope of tunnel face was obtained through nonlinear limit analysis. Results show that nonlinear coefficient and initial cohesion have a significant impact on the collapse pressure and failure zone. However, horizontal seismic coefficient and vertical seismic proportional coefficient merely affect the collapse pressure and the location of failure surface. And their influences on the volume and height of failure mechanism are not obvious. By virtue of reliability theory, the influences of horizontal and vertical seismic forces on supporting pressure were discussed. Meanwhile, safety factors and supporting pressures with respect to 3 different safety levels are also obtained, which may provide references to seismic design of tunnels.

Damage states of yielding and collapse for elevated water tanks supported on RC frame staging

  • Lakhade, Suraj O.;Kumar, Ratnesh;Jaiswal, mprakash R.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.67 no.6
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    • pp.587-601
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    • 2018
  • Elevated water tanks are inverted pendulum type structures where drift limit is an important criterion for seismic design and performance evaluation. Explicit drift criteria for elevated water tanks are not available in the literature. In this study, probabilistic approach is used to determine maximum drift limit for damage state of yielding and damage state of collapse for the elevated water tanks supported on RC frame staging. The two damage states are defined using results of incremental dynamic analysis wherein a total of 2160 nonlinear time history analyses are performed using twelve artificial spectrum compatible ground motions. Analytical fragility curves are developed using two-parameter lognormal distribution. The maximum allowable drifts corresponding to yield and collapse level requirements are estimated for different tank capacities. Finally, a single fragility curve is developed which provides maximum drift values for the different probability of damage. Further, for rational consideration of the uncertainties in design, three confidence levels are selected and corresponding drift limits for damage states of yielding and collapse are proposed. These values of maximum drift can be used in performance-based seismic design for a particular damage state depending on the level of confidence.

Determination of the Collapse Load of Elastic-Perfectly Plastic Frame Under the Probabilistic Load Incremental Method (확률특성을 고려한 탄성-완전소성 뼈대 구조물의 붕괴하중 산정)

  • 윤성수;장주흠;김한중;이정재
    • Magazine of the Korean Society of Agricultural Engineers
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    • v.40 no.2
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    • pp.140-147
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    • 1998
  • Since a structure carries out its given functions and purposes while it is always resisting against the external load, the capacity of the resistance in the structure within the range that will not collapse the structure itself becomes the important factor in the design of the structures. Therefore, many suggestions were proposed and noted for determining method of the collapse load. Some of the methods from the suggestions have been commonly used due to the considerations on their distinctive advantages such as the compactness of the conceptions and the convenience in the computation. However, in case when the variation becomes huge in the materials and load, the results would carry(have or contain) many uncertain elements. On the other hand, load incremental method which regards the characteristics of the probability must be more attainable method even though it might complicate the calculation. This study intends to develop a finite element model that uses the probabilistic load incremental method to estimate the collapse load, and also to compare the result of the analysis with the linear load incremental method and Turkstra's Rule.

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Probabilistic seismic performance evaluation of non-seismic RC frame buildings

  • Maniyar, M.M.;Khare, R.K.;Dhakal, R.P.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.33 no.6
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    • pp.725-745
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    • 2009
  • In this paper, probabilistic seismic performance assessment of a typical non-seismic RC frame building representative of a large inventory of existing buildings in developing countries is conducted. Nonlinear time-history analyses of the sample building are performed with 20 large-magnitude medium distance ground motions scaled to different levels of intensity represented by peak ground acceleration and 5% damped elastic spectral acceleration at the first mode period of the building. The hysteretic model used in the analyses accommodates stiffness degradation, ductility-based strength decay, hysteretic energy-based strength decay and pinching due to gap opening and closing. The maximum inter story drift ratios obtained from the time-history analyses are plotted against the ground motion intensities. A method is defined for obtaining the yielding and collapse capacity of the analyzed structure using these curves. The fragility curves for yielding and collapse damage levels are developed by statistically interpreting the results of the time-history analyses. Hazard-survival curves are generated by changing the horizontal axis of the fragility curves from ground motion intensities to their annual probability of exceedance using the log-log linear ground motion hazard model. The results express at a glance the probabilities of yielding and collapse against various levels of ground motion intensities.

Proposal of Strength-Based Design Procedure for Improving the Seismic Performance of Steel Ordinary Moment Frames (철골 보통모멘트골조의 내진성능 향상을 위한 강도기반 설계 절차 제안)

  • Kim, Taeo;Han, Sang Whan
    • Journal of the Earthquake Engineering Society of Korea
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    • v.28 no.1
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    • pp.11-20
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    • 2024
  • The ductility of the system based on the capacity of each structural member constituting the seismic force-resisting system is a significant factor determining the structure's seismic performance. This study aims to provide a procedure to supplement the current seismic design criteria to secure the system's ductility and improve the seismic performance of the steel ordinary moment frames. For the study, a nonlinear analysis was performed on the 9- and 15-story model buildings, and the formation of collapse mechanisms and damage distribution for dynamic loads were analyzed. As a result of analyzing the nonlinear response and damage distribution of the steel ordinary moment frame, local collapse due to the concentration of structural damage was observed in the case where the influence of the higher mode was dominant. In this study, a procedure to improve the seismic performance and avoid inferior dynamic response was proposed by limiting the strength ratio of the column. The proposed procedure effectively improved the seismic performance of steel ordinary moment frames by reducing the probability of local collapse.

Seismic Performance Evaluation of Steel Intermediate Moment Frames with Different Heights (다양한 높이를 가진 철골 중간모멘트골조의 내진성능평가)

  • Kim, Dong Hwi;Park, Yu Jin;Han, Sang Whan
    • Journal of the Computational Structural Engineering Institute of Korea
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.215-222
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    • 2014
  • The objective of this research is to evaluate the seismic performance of steel intermediate moment frames(IMFs) with different heights. The seimic performance is conducted according to ATC-63. Three-, six, nine- and twelve-story IMFs are designed according to KBC 2009. The connection is modeled to have a drift capacity of 0.02rad, which is required for IMF connections. This study shows that the probability of collapse increases with an increase in the height of the frame. Nine- and twelve-story frames did not satisfy the requirement specified in ATC-63.

Probability-based prediction of residual displacement for SDOF using nonlinear static analysis

  • Feng, Zhibin;Gong, Jinxin
    • Earthquakes and Structures
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    • v.22 no.6
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    • pp.571-584
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    • 2022
  • The residual displacement ratio (RDRs) response spectra have been generally used as an important means to evaluate the post-earthquake repairability, and the ratios of residual to maximum inelastic displacement are considered to be more appropriate for development of the spectra. This methodology, however, assumes that the expected residual displacement can be computed as the product of the RDRs and maximum inelastic displacement, without considering the correlation between these two variables, which inevitably introduces potential systematic error. For providing an adequately accurate estimate of residual displacement, while accounting for the collapse resistance performance prior to the repairability evaluation, a probability-based procedure to estimate the residual displacement demands using the nonlinear static analysis (NSA) is developed for single-degree-of-freedom (SDOF) systems. To this end, the energy-based equivalent damping ratio used for NSA is revised to obtain the maximum displacement coincident with the nonlinear time history analysis (NTHA) results in the mean sense. Then, the possible systematic error resulted from RDRs spectra methodology is examined based on the NTHA results of SDOF systems. Finally, the statistical relation between the residual displacement and the NSA-based maximum displacement is established. The results indicate that the energy-based equivalent damping ratio will underestimate the damping for short period ranges, and overestimate the damping for longer period ranges. The RDRs spectra methodology generally leads to the results being non-conservative, depending on post-yield stiffness. The proposed approach emphasizes that the repairability evaluation should be based on the premise of no collapse, which matches with the current performance-based seismic assessment procedure.

A methodology to evaluate corroded RC structures using a probabilistic damage approach

  • Coelho, Karolinne O.;Leonel, Edson D.;Florez-Lopez, Julio
    • Computers and Concrete
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    • v.29 no.1
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    • pp.1-14
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    • 2022
  • Several aspects influence corrosive processes in reinforced concrete (RC) structures such as environmental conditions, structural geometry and mechanical properties. Since these aspects present large randomnesses, probabilistic models allow a more accurate description of the corrosive phenomena. Besides, the definition of limit states in the reliability assessment requires a proper mechanical model. In this context, this study proposes a straightforward methodology for the mechanical-probabilistic modelling of RC structures subjected to reinforcements' corrosion. An improved damage approach is proposed to define the limit states for the probabilistic modelling, considering three main degradation phenomena: concrete cracking, rebar yielding and rebar corrosion caused either by chloride or carbonation mechanisms. The stochastic analysis is evaluated by the Monte Carlo simulation method due to the computational efficiency of the Lumped Damage Model for Corrosion (LDMC). The proposed mechanical-probabilistic methodology is implemented in a computational framework and applied to the analysis of a simply supported RC beam and a 2D RC frame. Curves illustrate the probability of failure evolution over a service life of 50 years. Moreover, the proposed model allows drawing the probability of failure map and then identifying the critical failure path for progressive collapse analysis. Collapse path changes caused by the corrosion phenomena are observed.