• Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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• v.101 no.1
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• pp.83-90
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• 2012

Forests as carbon sinks and sources, play an important role in mitigating global climate change. Nonpermanence problem of forest carbon offset projects should be addressed practically and properly for obtaining credible forest carbon credits. This study aims to analyze major non-permanence approaches and their applicability for Korean forest carbon offset projects. Introduction of the buffer system, one of the most generally used non-permanence approaches, should be considered first for domestic forest carbon offset schemes. From the research survey, experts preferred the buffer system to other approaches such as forest certification, conservation easement, and longer conservation period. Standard development including a buffer system with a risk assessment tool is required to assure project participation and permanence of carbon credits.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2015.05a
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• pp.469-469
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• 2015

산업혁명 이후 인간사회의 산업화 및 도시화의 가속으로 지구온난화는 기후변화를 야기해 왔으며, 이로 인한 각종 부정적인 영향과 심각성은 날로 커져가고 있는 현실이다. IPCC(Intergoverment Panel on Climate Change)는 기후변화의 주범인 온실가스를 감축할 지라도 기후의 탄성 때문에 앞으로 수세기 이상 계속 진행될 것으로 전망하였으며, 기후변화 영향의 근원적 방지는 불가능하기 때문에 결국 수자원 관리 측면에서도 기후변화에 적응하기 위한 각종 적응전략 개발의 필요성을 강조하였다(IPCC, 2007). 또한, 극한강수의 발현비율이 도시 및 비도시 지역의 구분 없이 과거 30년에 비해 크게 증가하고 있으며 이러한 추세는 수공구조물의 치수안전도 저하에 큰 영향을 준다. 우리나라는 그동안 하천, 유역 홍수저감 시설물과 댐 등 대형 수공구조물에 대한 안전성 평가를 주기적으로 수행해 왔으나 단순히 모니터링을 통하여 현재의 안전기준의 부합 여부만을 판단하는 수준에 그치고 있다. 장래 증가하는 홍수피해에 대처하기 위해서는 다양한 극한강우 및 극한홍수시나리오를 기반으로 시설물 설계기준별 홍수 위험도와 취약성을 평가하고, 극한홍수 방어기준을 재설정하여 현재 설계기준을 제고할 필요가 있으며, 시설물별 안전도 평가와 위험도 저감계획 및 경제성 평가를 종합적으로 고려한 실행프레임워크 개발이 시급한 실정이다. 따라서 본 연구에서는 도림천 유역에 대하여 최적화된 도시유출모형을 통하여 기후변화가 도시유역에 미치는 유출영향을 분석하였으며, MCS(Monte Carlo Simulation)을 통한 극치수문사상의 적용 및 유출분석을 통한 하천제방의 취약성 평가와 위험도 분석을 실시하여 도시하천의 기후변화 영향을 정량적으로 표현하고자 하였다. 또한 기후변화에 따른 도시하천의 수문특성 변화분석 결과를 바탕으로 향후 발생할 수 있는 극치 수문사상의 값을 반영한 설계기준 강화 수방시설 계획 등의 연구에 활용하며, 여러 가지 수문학적 불확실성에 의하여 가변 가능한 도시하천 유역의 취약성 평가 및 위험도 분석을 통한 기후변화 대응과 수공구조물 설계 및 수방전략 수립에 활용하고자 한다.

• Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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• 2021.06a
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• pp.35-35
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• 2021

최근 우리나라는 기후변화로 인한 이상기후 현상으로 호우 및 홍수 등에 의한 수재해를 예방하기 위한 설계빈도 적용방안 개발이 필요하다. 과거 지방하천의 일률적인 설계빈도의 적용 및 간접·주관적인 하천의 중요도와 지역특성에 대한 등급의 결정은 하천사업의 효율적 관리와 수행에 있어서 저해요소로 작용되어 왔다. 또한, 미래 기후변화 시나리오에 따라 하천의 중요도 및 계획 규모가 적절히 적용되어야 한다. 본 연구는 충청남도의 492개 지방하천에 대하여 유역특성(유역면적, 형상계수), 하천특성(하도경사, 수계 및 하천차수, 배수영향 구간), 이상강우 특성(이상강우 발생빈도, 시가화 침수면적)에 대한 현재 설계빈도에 대한 적절성을 평가하였다. 설계빈도에 대한 정량적 추정은 베이즈 이론을 활용하여 가중치를 산정한 후 최적분포형을 선정하였다. 최적분포형의 중앙값을 일반적인 지방하천의 설계빈도인 80년 빈도로 설정하고 상·하위 0.5%가 각각 100년, 50년 빈도로 가정하여 492개 지방하천을 평가하였다. 이상강우의 발생빈도와 시가화 침수면적에 따라 하천의 설계빈도가 높게 산정되는 것으로 분석되었다. 미래 기후변화 시나리오를 적용할 경우 현재 설계빈도(설계수명)에 대한 시나리오별 미래 재현기간을 산정하여 미래 설계빈도에 대한 위험도를 평가하였다. 13개 기후변화 시나리오의 대표농도경로 4.5와 8.5를 분석한 결과, 평균 3.2%, 12.8%의 위험도가 증가하는 것으로 분석되었다. 본 연구결과는 객관적인 지방하천의 적정 설계빈도 결정방안을 제시하였으며, 미래 계획홍수량 증가로 인하여 효율적인 토지이용이 제한될 것으로 예상됨에 따라 하천사업의 예산절감 및 우선순위 결정 등에 활용 가능할 것으로 판단된다.

• Journal of the Korean Geotechnical Society
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• v.39 no.10
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• pp.27-39
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• 2023

To effectively manage flood risk, it is crucial to assess the stability of flood defense structures like levees under extreme flood conditions. This study focuses on the time-dependent probabilistic assessment of embankment slope stability when subjected to rapid water level drops. We integrate seepage analysis results from finite element analysis with slope stability analysis and employ Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the time-dependent behavior of the slope during rapid drawdown. The resulting probability of failure is used to develop fragility curves for the levee slope. Notably, the probability of slope failure remains low up to a specific water level, sharply increasing beyond that threshold. Furthermore, the fragility curves are strongly influenced by the rate of drawdown, which is determined through hydraulic analysis based on flood scenarios. Climate change has a significant impact on the stability of the water-side slope of the embankment due to water level fluctuations.

• Journal of Wetlands Research
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• v.22 no.4
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• pp.302-311
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• 2020

There are limitations to cope with flood damage by structural strategies alone because both frequency and intensity of floods are increasing due to climate change. Therefore, it is one of the necessary factors in the nonstructural countermeasures to collect and analyze historical flood damage records for the future flood damage assessments. In order to estimate flood damage costs in Gyeongsangbuk-do where severe flood damage occurs frequently due to geographical and climatic effects, this paper has performed the regression analysis on flood damage records over the past 20 years (1999-2018) by rainfall characteristics, which is one of the major causes of flood damage. This paper has then examined the relationship between the terrain features and rainfall characteristics in the regional regression functions, and also estimated the flood damage risk for 100-year rainfall by using the regional regression functions presented for the 22 administrative districts in Gyeongsangbuk-do excluding Ulleung-gun. The flood damage assessment shows that the relatively high damage risk is estimated for county areas adjacent to the eastern coast in Gyeongsangbuk-do. The regional damage estimate functions in this paper are expected to be used as one of the nonstructural countermeasures to estimate flood damage risk for the design or forecasting rainfall data.

• Journal of the Korea Academia-Industrial cooperation Society
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• v.21 no.1
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• pp.760-767
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• 2020

Sustainable growth of hydroelectric power plants is expected in consideration of climate change and energy security. However, hydroelectric power plants always have a risk of water hammer damage, and safety assurance is very important. The water hammer phenomenon commonly occurs during operations such as rapid opening and closing of the valves and pump/turbine shutdown in pipe systems, which is more common in cases of emergency shutdown. In this study, a computational numerical model was developed using the MOC-FDM scheme to reflect the mechanism of water hammer occurrence. The proposed model was implemented in boundary conditions such as reservoir, pipeline, valve, and pump/turbine conditions and then applied to simulate hypothetical case studies. The analysis results of the model were verified using the analysis results at the main points of the pipe systems. The model produced reasonably good performance and was validated by comparison with the results of the SIMSEN package model. The model could be used as an efficient tool for the safety assessment of hydroelectric power plants based on accurate prediction of transient behavior in the operation of hydropower facilities.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.17 no.2
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• pp.153-165
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• 2014

Carbon dioxide capture and storage (CCS) technology is recognizing one of method responding the climate change with reduction of carbon dioxide in atmosphere. In Korea, due to its geological characteristics, sub-seabed geological $CO_2$ storage is regarded as more practical approach than on-land storage under the goal of its deployment. However, concerns on potential $CO_2$ leakage and relevant acidification issue in the marine environment can be an important subject in recently increasing sub-seabed geological $CO_2$ storage sites. In the present study effect data from literatures were collected in order to conduct an effect assessment of elevated $CO_2$ levels in marine environments using a species sensitivity distribution (SSD) various marine organisms such as microbe, crustacean, echinoderm, mollusc and fish. Results from literatures using domestic species were compared to those from foreign literatures to evaluate the reliability of the effect levels of each biological group and end-point. Ecological effect guidelines through estimating level of pH variation (${\delta}pH$) to adversely affect 5 and 50% of tested organisms, HC5 and HC50, were determined using SSD of marine organisms exposed to the $CO_2$-induced acidification. Estimated HC5 as ${\delta}pH$ of 0.137 can be used as only interim quality guideline possibly with adequate assessment factor. In the future, the current interim guideline as HC5 of ${\delta}pH$ in this study will look forward to compensate with supplement of ecotoxicological data reflecting various trophic levels and indigenous species.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.29 no.7
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• pp.802-811
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• 2023

Marine spatial planning (MSP) is a crucial element for rational allocation and sustainable use of marine areas. Particularly, Fishing Activity Protected Areas constitute essential zones accounting for 45.6% designated for sustainable fishing activities. However, the current assessment of these zones does not adequately consider future demands and potential values, necessitating appropriate evaluation methods and predictive tools for long-term planning. In this study, we selected key fish species (Scomber japonicus, Trichiurus lepturus, Engraulis japonicus, and Larimichthys polyactis) within the Fishing Activity Protected Area to predict their distribution and compare it with the current designated zones for evaluating the ability of the prediction tool. Employing the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 6th Assessment Report scenarios (SSP1-2.6 and SSP5-8.5), we used species distribution models (such as MaxEnt) to assess the movement and distribution changes of these species owing to future variations. The results indicated a 30-50% increase in the distribution area of S. japonicus, T. lepturus, and L. polyactis, whereas the distribution area of E. japonicus decreased by approximately 6-11%. Based on these results, a species richness map for the four key species was created. Within the marine spatial planning boundaries, the overlap between areas rated "high" in species richness and the Fishing Activity Protected Area was approximately 15%, increasing to 21% under the RCP 2.6 scenario and 34% under the RCP 8.5 scenario. These findings can serve as scientific evidence for future evaluations of use zones or changes in reserve areas. The current and predicted distributions of species owing to climate change can address the limitations of current use zone evaluations and contribute to the development of plans for sustainable and beneficial use of marine resources.

• Journal of the Korean Society of Marine Environment & Safety
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• v.27 no.5
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• pp.691-699
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• 2021

The global surface temperature has risen critically over the past century and according to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report 2014, existing risks in natural and human systems will worsen. Coastal erosion is mostly caused by climate change and among all the coastal areas at risk, Benin, which is part of the Gulf of Guinea, has been ranked very highly as a vulnerable region. Therefore, in this review, we focus on the evolution of coastline change in Cotonou of Benin, summarizing its resultant impacts and applied measures around the coast area by reviewing previous studies. Signs of coastal erosion in Cotonou appeared in 1963. After 39 years, the east shoreline of Cotonou has retreated by 885 m, resulting in the disappearance of more than 800 houses. To solve this problem, Benin authorities built seven groynes in 2013, and have increased the number of the structure as a way to interrupt water flow and limit the movement of sediment. Over the region, shorelines appeared preserved accordingly. In contrast, areas located further east, where groynes were not installed, have suf ered from intensive erosion at a rate of 49 m/yr. In the future, as a next step, the effectiveness of groynes should be studied with local and broader perspectives.

• Journal of the Korean Society for Marine Environment & Energy
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• v.15 no.3
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• pp.263-272
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• 2012

Carbon dioxide, emitted by human activities since the industrial revolution, is regarded as a major contributor of global warming. There are many efforts to mitigate climate change, and carbon dioxide capture and geological storage (CCS) is recognized as one of key technologies because it can reduce carbon dioxide emissions from large point sources such as a power station or other industrial installation. The inclusion of CCS as clean development mechanism (CDM) project activities has been considered at UNFCCC as financial incentive mechanisms for those developing countries that may wish to deploy the CCS. Although the Conference of the Parties serving as the Meeting of the Parties to the UNFCCC's Kyoto Protocol (CMP), at Cancun in December 2010, decided that CCS is eligible as CDM project activities, the issues identified in decision 2/CMP.5 should be addressed and resolved in a satisfactory manner. Major issues regarding modalities and procedure are 1) Site selection, 2) Monitoring, 3) Modeling, 4) Boundaries, 5) Seepage Measuring and Accounting, 6) Trans-Boundary Effects, 7) Accounting of Associated Project Emissions (Leakage), 8) Risk and Safety Assessment, and 9) Liability Under the CDM Scheme. The CMP, by its decision 7/CMP.6, invited Parties to submit their views to the secretariat of Subsidiary Body for Scientific and Technological Advice (SBSTA), SBSTA prepared a draft modalities and procedure by exchanging views of Parties through workshop held in Abu Dhabi, UAE (September 2011). The 7th CMP (Durban, December 2011) finally adopted the modalities and procedures for CCS as CDM project activities (CMP[2011], Decision-/CMP.7). The inclusion of CCS as CDM project activities means that CCS is officially accredited as one of $CO_2$ reducing technologies in global carbon market. Consequently, it will affect relevant technologies and industry as well as law and policy in Korea and aboard countries. This paper presents a progress made on discussion and challenges regarding the issue, and aims to suggest some considerations to policy makers in Korea in order to demonstrate and deploy the CCS project in the near future. According to the adopted modalities and procedures for CCS as CDM project activities, it is possible to implement relevant CCS projects in Non-Annex I countries, including Korea, as long as legal and regulatory frameworks are established. Though Korea enacted 'Framework Act on Low Carbon, Green Growth', the details are too inadequate to content the requirements of modalities and procedures for CCS as CDM project. Therefore, it is required not only to amend the existing laws related with capture, transport, and storage of $CO_2$ for paving the way of an prompt deployment of CCS CDM activities in Korea as a short-term approach, but also to establish the united framework as a long-term approach.