• Title/Summary/Keyword: Classical Probability

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Augmentation of Hidden Markov Chain for Complex Sequential Data in Context

  • Sin, Bong-Kee
    • Journal of Multimedia Information System
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.31-34
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    • 2021
  • The classical HMM is defined by a parameter triple �� = (��, A, B), where each parameter represents a collection of probability distributions: initial state, state transition and output distributions in order. This paper proposes a new stationary parameter e = (e1, e2, …, eN) where N is the number of states and et = P(|xt = i, y) for describing how an input pattern y ends in state xt = i at time t followed by nothing. It is often said that all is well that ends well. We argue here that all should end well. The paper sets the framework for the theory and presents an efficient inference and training algorithms based on dynamic programming and expectation-maximization. The proposed model is applicable to analyzing any sequential data with two or more finite segmental patterns are concatenated, each forming a context to its neighbors. Experiments on online Hangul handwriting characters have proven the effect of the proposed augmentation in terms of highly intuitive segmentation as well as recognition performance and 13.2% error rate reduction.

A Simulation Study on Queueing Delay Performance of Slotted ALOHA under Time-Correlated Channels

  • Yoora Kim
    • International Journal of Internet, Broadcasting and Communication
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    • v.15 no.3
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    • pp.43-51
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    • 2023
  • Slotted ALOHA (S-ALOHA) is a classical medium access control protocol widely used in multiple access communication networks, supporting distributed random access without the need for a central controller. Although stability and delay have been extensively studied in existing works, most of these studies have assumed ideal channel conditions or independent fading, and the impact of time-correlated wireless channels has been less addressed. In this paper, we investigate the queueing delay performance in S-ALOHA networks under time-correlated channel conditions by utilizing a Gilbert-Elliott model. Through simulation studies, we demonstrate how temporal correlation in the wireless channel affects the queueing delay performance. We find that stronger temporal correlation leads to increased variability in queue length, a larger probability of having queue overflows, and higher congestion levels in the S-ALOHA network. Consequently, there is an increase in the average queueing delay, even under a light traffic load. With these findings, we provide valuable insights into the queueing delay performance of S-ALOHA networks, supplementing the existing understanding of delay in S-ALOHA networks.

Vibrational Relaxation and Bond Dissociation of Excited Methylpyrazine in the Collision with HF

  • Oh, Hee-Gyun;Ree, Jong-Baik;Lee, Sang-Kwon;Kim, Yoo-Hang
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.27 no.10
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    • pp.1641-1647
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    • 2006
  • Vibrational relaxation and competitive C-$H_{methyl}$ and C-$H_{ring}$ bond dissociations in vibrationally excited methylpyrazine in the collision with HF have been studied by use of classical trajectory procedures. The energy lost by the vibrationally excited methylpyrazine upon collision is not large and it increases slowly with increasing total vibrational energy content between 20,000 and 45,000 $cm^{-1}$. Above the energy content of 45,000 $cm^{-1}$, however, energy loss decreases. The temperature dependence of energy loss is negligible between 200 and 400 K, but above 45,000 $cm^{-1}$ the energy loss increases as the temperature is raised. Energy transfer to or from the excited methyl C-H bond occurs in strong collisions with HF, that is, relatively large amount of translational energy is transferred in a single step. On the other hand, energy transfer to the ring C-H bond occurs in a series of small steps. When the total energy content ET of methylpyrazine is sufficiently high, either or both C-H bonds can dissociate. The C-$H_{methyl}$ dissociation probability is higher than the C-$H_{ring}$ dissociation probability. The dissociation of the ring C-H bond is not the result of the direct intermolecular energy flow from the direct collision between the ring C-H and HF but the result of the intramolecular flow of energy from the methyl group to the ring C-H stretch.

Nonlinear stochastic optimal control strategy of hysteretic structures

  • Li, Jie;Peng, Yong-Bo;Chen, Jian-Bing
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.38 no.1
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    • pp.39-63
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    • 2011
  • Referring to the formulation of physical stochastic optimal control of structures and the scheme of optimal polynomial control, a nonlinear stochastic optimal control strategy is developed for a class of structural systems with hysteretic behaviors in the present paper. This control strategy provides an amenable approach to the classical stochastic optimal control strategies, bypasses the dilemma involved in It$\hat{o}$-type stochastic differential equations and is applicable to the dynamical systems driven by practical non-stationary and non-white random excitations, such as earthquake ground motions, strong winds and sea waves. The newly developed generalized optimal control policy is integrated in the nonlinear stochastic optimal control scheme so as to logically distribute the controllers and design their parameters associated with control gains. For illustrative purposes, the stochastic optimal controls of two base-excited multi-degree-of-freedom structural systems with hysteretic behavior in Clough bilinear model and Bouc-Wen differential model, respectively, are investigated. Numerical results reveal that a linear control with the 1st-order controller suffices even for the hysteretic structural systems when a control criterion in exceedance probability performance function for designing the weighting matrices is employed. This is practically meaningful due to the nonlinear controllers which may be associated with dynamical instabilities being saved. It is also noted that using the generalized optimal control policy, the maximum control effectiveness with the few number of control devices can be achieved, allowing for a desirable structural performance. It is remarked, meanwhile, that the response process and energy-dissipation behavior of the hysteretic structures are controlled to a certain extent.

The Reliability-Based Probabilistic Structural Analysis for the Composite Tail Plane Structures (복합재 미익 구조의 신뢰성 기반 확률론적 구조해석)

  • Lee, Seok-Je;Kim, In-Gul
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Military Science and Technology
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    • v.15 no.1
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    • pp.93-100
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    • 2012
  • In this paper, the deterministic optimal design for the tail plane made of composite materials is conducted under the deterministic loading condition and compared with that of the metallic materials. Next, the reliability analysis with five random variables such as loading and material properties of unidirectional prepreg is conducted to examine the probability of failure for the deterministic optimal design results. The MATLAB programing is used for reliability analysis combined with FEA S/W(COMSOL) for structural analysis. The laminated composite is assumed to the equivalent orthotropic material using classical laminated plate theory. The response surface methodology and importance sampling technique are adopted to reduce computational cost with satisfying the accuracy in reliability analysis. As a result, structural weight of composite materials is lighter than that of metals in deterministic optimal design. However, the probability of failure for the deterministic optimal design of the tail plane structures is too high to be neglected. The sensitivity of each variable is also estimated using probabilistic sensitivity analysis to figure out which variables are sensitive to failure. The computational cost is considerably reduced when response surface methodology and importance sampling technique are used. The study of the computationally inexpensive method for reliability-based design optimization will be necessary in further work.

Advance Probabilistic Design and Reliability-Based Design Optimization for Composite Sandwich Structure (복합재 샌드위치 구조의 개선된 확률론적 설계 및 신뢰성 기반 최적설계)

  • Lee, Seokje;Kim, In-Gul;Cho, Wooje;Shul, Changwon
    • Composites Research
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    • v.26 no.1
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    • pp.29-35
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    • 2013
  • Composite sandwich structure can improve the specific bending stiffness significantly and save the weight nearly 30 percent compared with the composite laminates. However, it has more inherent uncertainties of the material property caused by manufacturing process than metals. Therefore, the reliability-based probabilistic design approach is required. In this paper, the PMS(Probabilistic Margin of Safety) is calculated for the simplified fuselage structure made of composite sandwich to provide the probabilistic reasonable evidence that the classical design method based on the safety factor cannot ensure the structural safety. In this phase, the probability density function estimated by CMCS(Crude Monte-Carlo Simulation) is used. Furthermore, the RBDO(Reliability-Based Design Optimization) under the probabilistic constraint are performed, and the RBDO-MPDF(RBDO by Moving Probability Density Function) is proposed for an efficient computation. The examined results in this paper can be helpful for advanced design techniques to ensure the reliability of structures under the uncertainty and computationally inexpensive RBDO methods.

Intramolecular Energy Flow and Bond Dissociation in the Collision between Vibrationally Excited Toluene and HF

  • Ree, Jong-baik;Kim, Sung-Hee;Lee, Taeck-Hong;Kim, Yu-Hang
    • Bulletin of the Korean Chemical Society
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    • v.27 no.4
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    • pp.495-502
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    • 2006
  • Intramolecular energy flow and C-$H_{methyl}$ and C-$H_{ring}$ bond dissociations in vibrationally excited toluene in the collision with HF have been studied by use of classical trajectory procedures. The energy lost by the vibrationally excited toluene upon collision is not large and it increases slowly with increasing total vibrational energy content between 20,000 and 45,000 $cm ^{-1}$. Above the energy content of 45,000 $cm ^{-1}$, however, energy loss decreases. Furthermore, in the highly excited toluene, toluene gains energy from incident HF. The temperature dependence of energy loss is negligible between 200 and 400 K. Energy transfer to or from the excited methyl C-H bond occurs in strong collisions with HF transferring relatively large amount of its translational energy (>> $k_BT$) in a single step, whereas energy transfer to the ring C-H bond occurs in a series of small steps. When the total energy content $E_T$ of toluene is sufficiently high, either C-H bond can dissociate. The C-$H_{methyl}$ dissociation probability is higher than the C-$H_{ring}$ dissociation probability. The dissociation of the ring C-H bond is not the result of the intermolecular energy flow from the direct collision between the ring C-H and HF but the intramolecular flow of energy from the methyl group to the ring C-H stretch. The C-$H_{ring}$${\cdot}{\cdot}{\cdot}$HF interaction is not important in transferring energy and in turn bond dissociation.

Ship Structural Reliability Analysis by Probabilistic Finite Element Method (확률 유한요소법에 의한 선체 구조 신뢰성해석)

  • S.J. Yim;Y.S. Yang;J.H. Kim
    • Journal of the Society of Naval Architects of Korea
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    • v.28 no.2
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    • pp.241-250
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    • 1991
  • The reliability analysis for web frame of tanker is carried out by the probabilistic finite element method combined with the classical reliability method such as MVFOSM and AFOSM which can be used for calculating the probability of failure for the complicated structures in which the limit state equation is implicitly expressed. As random variables external load, elastic modulus, sectional moment of inertia and field stress are chosen and Parkinson's iteration algorithm in AFOSM is used for reliability analysis. By adding only the covariance data of the random variables to the input data set required for conventional finite element method, the present method can easily calculate the probability of failure at every element end as well as the covariances of structural reponses such as displacements at every element end and member forces at every element, even for the complicated ship structure.

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Effect of Guessing on the Correct Answer in a Multiple Choice (객관식 선다형문항에서 추측이 정답에 미치는 영향)

  • Kwon, Boseob
    • The Journal of Korean Association of Computer Education
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    • v.23 no.1
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    • pp.29-36
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    • 2020
  • Various items were used as evaluation tools that identify the student's abilities accurately to confirm the completion of learning. Among them, the multiple choice item has the advantages of high objectivity and reliability in scoring, but it cannot remove the factor of guessing. In this paper, the multiple choice items are classified into two types according to the relationship between the questionnaire and the choices. One is the type used in the classical test theory with the probability of guessing 1/k for k choices and the other is the novel proposed type which introduces the concept of partial knowledge. In the proposed type, the probability of guessing when the number of knowledge i is (i+1)/k for k choices. Based on the assumptions of the previous theories about multiple choice items, we derive the guessing parameter about the proposed type. And we analyzed the effect of the guess on the correct answer in the existing type and the proposed type. This shows that the proposed type has more question guessing than the existing type.

Analysis of Gohr's Neural Distinguisher on Speck32/64 and its Application to Simon32/64 (Gohr의 Speck32/64 신경망 구분자에 대한 분석과 Simon32/64에의 응용)

  • Seong, Hyoeun;Yoo, Hyeondo;Yeom, Yongjin;Kang, Ju-Sung
    • Journal of the Korea Institute of Information Security & Cryptology
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    • v.32 no.2
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    • pp.391-404
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    • 2022
  • Aron Gohr proposed a cryptanalysis method based on deep learning technology for the lightweight block cipher Speck. This is a method that enables a chosen plaintext attack with higher accuracy than the classical differential cryptanalysis. In this paper, by using the probability distribution, we analyze the mechanism of such deep learning based cryptanalysis and propose the results applied to the lightweight block cipher Simon. In addition, we examine that the probability distributions of the predicted values of the neural networks within the cryptanalysis working processes are different depending upon the characteristics of round functions of Speck and Simon, and suggest a direction to improve the efficiency of the neural distinguisher which is the core technology of Aron Gohr's cryptanalysis.