• 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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• 제14권1호
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• pp.1-24
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• 2005

진술선호법 연구의 질을 좌우하는 결정적인 요소 중의 하나는 설문지 디자인이다. 본 연구는 Choice Experiments(속성가치선택법) 연구결과의 합리성을 제고함과 아울러 타당성을 검정하기 위한 기술적인 방법으로서 선택질문(choice questions)과 유사한 '예제'를 이용하는 방법에 관하여 논한다. 라돈(radon) 방사능 저감에 대한 지불의사 추정 사례를 이용하였다. 비합리적인 응답을 가려내기 위한 '예제' 디자인을 이용한 사례에서, 설문지 디자인에 관하여 논한 후 한다. 비합리적 응답의 색출 및 제거는 모형의 설명력 증대를 가져왔다. 한편 설문디자인의 영향을 직접적으로 받는 발산적(divergent) 타당성은 닻효과(anchoring effect) 검증을 중심으로 논하였다. 예제의 내용을 기술적으로 디자인하여 두 부차표본들을 만들고 이에 대한 추정모형들간의 동질성을 평가함으로써 닻효과를 검증하였다. 다양한 닻효과 검증 결과는 혼재되었다. 예제 디자인의 장단점에 대해서도 논하였다.

• 한국수자원학회논문집
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• 제41권1호
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• pp.101-113
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• 2008

본 연구는 안양천 유역의 물순환 건전화를 위한 최종 대안을 제시하기 위해 비용효과분석을 수행하였다. 이중 편익산정은 진술선호기법 중 하나인 실험선택법(Choice Experiments, CE)과 대안의 평가지수(Alternative Evaluation Index, AEI)를 결합하여 수행하였다. 실험선택법은 지역별로 다양한 속성을 보이는 안양천 유역을 잠재적 위험도와 지리적 특성을 바탕으로 6개 지역으로 나누어 설문과 분석을 수행하였다. NB > 0 이상인 대안들은 공학적, 경제적으로 매우 우수한 대안이므로 실행을 적극 검토할 필요가 있다.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제13권4호
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• pp.31-45
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• 1995

In recent year, especially in the mode choice analysis, it has been perceived that the importance of individual performance data using stated preference(SP) experiments as well as revealed preference data . Since SP experiments present respondent with various hypothetical alternatives, which are produced by a combination of a number of different attribute levels, and ask them to indicate a preference, it is possible to analyze travel behavior under a situation of potential environment change such as proposed alternative mode of transportation. The basic problems, however, remains that SP are not consistent with the actual travel behaviors and the research reports for stability of mode choice model using SP data has not been sufficient. Under this background, this study is to examine the characteristics of mode choice model using the SP data by the following items. $\circled1$ Analysis of factors affecting the mode choice behavior by the variance analysis of orthogonal-arrays-table $\circled2$ The reliability of SP data by transfer intention data $\circled3$ The stability of SP responses obtained from repetitive question by the comparison of model coefficient specified by each repetitive data. $\circled4$ The stability of ranking data in mode choice model For the analysis, we assumed subway operations in the Gwang-Ju , and set up a choice-set of hypothetical options based on Experimental Design Method.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제10권3호
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• pp.21-42
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• 1992

As for the travel demand analysis of the past, forcasting has been conducted by the use of revealed preference(RP) informations about actual or observed choices made by individuals. Forcasting method using RP data needs implicit assumptions that there will be no remarkable changes in existing transport conditions. However in case of occuring the great changes in existing conditions or adding a new choice-set of hypothetical options, it is very difficult to predict future travel demand. Fortunately in recent years, especially in the mode choice analysis, it has been perceived that the importance of individual performance data using stated preference(SP) experiments as well as RP data. But the research reports has not been reported sufficiently from models estimated using SP data. Under this background, we analyze the factors affecting the mode choice behavior as a fundamental study against the modelling task with SP choice data. For this analysis, we assumed subway operations in the secondary cities where there are no subway lines until now, and set up a choice-set of hypothetical options based on Experimental Design Method.

• 한국항해항만학회지
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• 제28권9호
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• pp.809-813
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• 2004

Experiments revealed that green water phenomena resemble dam-break, in which flow over deck edge forms a vertical wall of water and suddenly falls down into deck. In this paper the dam breaking problems were formulated using Glimm's algorithm, so-rolled, Random Choice method and, several validations were presented.

• 한국경영과학회지
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• 제34권3호
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• pp.29-41
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• 2009

The purpose of this paper is to develop a new classification method for predicting consumer choice based on genetic algorithm, and to validate Its prediction power over existing methods. To serve this purpose, we propose a hybrid model, and discuss Its methodological characteristics in comparison with other existing classification methods. Also, we conduct a series of experiments employing survey data of consumer choices of MP3 players to assess the prediction power of the model. The results show that the suggested model in this paper is statistically superior to the existing methods such as logistic regression model, artificial neural network model and decision tree model in terms of prediction accuracy. The model is also shown to have an advantage of providing several strategic information of practical use for consumer choice.

• 한국경영과학회:학술대회논문집
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• 한국경영과학회 2008년도 추계학술대회 및 정기총회
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• pp.1-7
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• 2008

The purpose of this paper is to develop a new classification method for predicting consumer choice based on genetic algorithm, and to validate its prediction power over existing methods. To serve this purpose, we propose a hybrid model, and discuss its methodological characteristics in comparison with other existing classification methods. Also, to assess the prediction power of the model, we conduct a series of experiments employing survey data of consumer choices of MP3 players. The results show that the suggested model in this paper is statistically superior to the existing methods such as logistic regression model, artificial neural network model and decision tree model in terms of prediction accuracy. The model is also shown to have an advantage of providing several strategic information of practical use for consumer choice.

• 대한기계학회:학술대회논문집
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• 대한기계학회 2004년도 추계학술대회
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• pp.840-845
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• 2004

The reliability analysis for nonnormal distributions using the three level DOE(design of experiments) method was developed by Seo and Kwak in 2002. Although this method estimates only up to the first four moments(mean, standard deviation, skewness, and kurtosis) of the system response function, the result and the type of probability distribution determined by using the Pearson system are shown very good. However the accuracy is low in case of nonlinear performance function and sometimes, the level calculated is outside of the region in which the random variable is defined. In this article we suggest a modified three level DOE method to overcome these weaknesses and to obtain optimum choice for 3 levels and weights to handle nonnormal distributions. Furthermore we extend it to finding the optimum choice for 5 levels and weights to increase the accuracy in case of nonlinear performance function. A systematic procedure for reliability analysis is then proposed by using the Pearson system.

• 대한교통학회지
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• 제26권3호
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• pp.211-221
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• 2008

본 논문에서는 교통사고로 인해 사고 피해자 및 그 가족이나 친지, 주변사람들이 느끼는 정신적 고통을 사회적비용으로 환산한 심리적비용에 대해 고찰하여 보았다. 선택실험방법, 직접질문법, 양분선택형방법 등 3가지 방법을 사용하여 설문설계를 하였으며 이들 설문 설계방법별로 각각의 모형을 구축하였다. 모형 구축 시에는 확률선택모형에서 가장 일반적으로 사용되는 로짓모형을 이용하였으며 직접질문법은 토빗모형을 이용하였다. 이들 모형을 검증한 결과 모형에 따라 차이는 있었으나 대부분 모형의 적합도 및 각 계수의 신뢰도가 95% 신뢰수준에서 유의한 것으로 나타났다. 심리적비용 산정모형으로 산출된 국내 도로교통사고의 심리적비용은 사상자 1인당 1,563만원으로 총 5조 1천억 원이며, 전체 교통사고비용의 37.1%를 점유하는 것으로 분석되었다.

• 경영과학
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• 제30권1호
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• pp.1-14
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• 2013

We conduct the future studies suggested by Park and Seo [3]. They considered a seat inventory control problem in which flights depart sequentially during a similar time-interval and passengers purchase available seats depending on individual customer choice behavior. Customer choice behavior can lead to one among a horizontal shift, a diversion-up, and a booking loss when a desired fare class is unavailable. We investigate how seat availability calculation method, booking limit control mechanism, seat inventory capacity, number of booking class, type of seat demand influence on revenues in an airline industry through thorough computer simulation experiments.