• Title/Summary/Keyword: Choice Modeling

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Network Calibration and Validation of Dynamic Traffic Assignment with Nationwide Freeway Network Data of South Korea (고속도로 TCS 자료를 활용한 동적노선배정의 네트워크 정산과 검증)

  • Jeong, Sang-Mi;Kim, Ik-Ki
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.26 no.4
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    • pp.205-215
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    • 2008
  • As static traffic assignment has reached its limitation with ITS policy applications and due to the increase of interest in studies of ITS policies since the late 1980's, dynamic traffic assignment has been considered a tool to overcome such limitations. This study used the Dynameq program, which simulates route choice behavior by macroscopic modeling and dynamic network loading and traffic flow by microscopic modeling in consideration of the feasibility of the analysis of practical traffic policy. The essence of this study is to evaluate the feasibility for analysis in practical transportation policy of using the dynamic traffic assignment technique. The study involves the verification of the values estimated from the dynamic traffic assignment with South Korea's expressway network and dynamic O/D data by comparing results with observed link traffic volumes. This study used dynamic O/D data between each toll booth, which can be accurately obtained from the highway Toll Collection System. Then, as an example of its application, exclusive bus-lane policies were analyzed with the dynamic traffic assignment model while considering hourly variations.

Dynamic Model Considering the Biases in SP Panel data (SP 패널데이터의 Bias를 고려한 동적모델)

  • 남궁문;성수련;최기주;이백진
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.18 no.6
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    • pp.63-75
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    • 2000
  • Stated Preference (SP) data has been regarded as more useful than Revealed Preference (RP) data, because researchers can investigate the respondents\` Preference and attitude for a traffic condition or a new traffic system by using the SP data. However, the SP data has two bias: the first one is the bias inherent in SP data and the latter one is the attrition bias in SP panel data. If the biases do not corrected, the choice model using SP data may predict a erroneous future demand. In this Paper, six route choice models are constructed to deal with the SP biases, and. these six models are classified into cross-sectional models (model I∼IH) and dynamic models (model IV∼VI) From the six models. some remarkable results are obtained. The cross-sectional model that incorporate RP choice results of responders with SP cross-sectional model can correct the biases inherent in SP data, and also the dynamic models can consider the temporal variations of the effectiveness of state dependence in SP responses by assuming a simple exponential function of the state dependence. WESML method that use the estimated attrition probability is also adopted to correct the attrition bias in SP Panel data. The results can be contributed to the dynamic modeling of SP Panel data and also useful to predict more exact demand.

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Multinomial Logit Modeling: Focus on Regional Rail Trips (다항로짓모형을 이용한 지역간 철도통행 연구)

  • Kim, Gyeong-Tae;Lee, Jin-Seon
    • Journal of Korean Society of Transportation
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    • v.25 no.1 s.94
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    • pp.109-119
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    • 2007
  • Increasingly, the emphasis in regional Passenger rail Planning is finding ways to more efficiently use existing facilities, with particular attention being Paid to Policies designed to spread Peak-Period travel demand more evenly throughout the week with consideration of train classification. In this context the individual's choice of time to travel is of crucial significance. This paper investigates the use of multinomial logit analysis to model ridership by rail classification using data collected for travel from Seoul to Busan during the one week in October 2004. The Particular model form that was successfully calibrated was the multinomial logit (MNL) model : it describes the choice mechanism that will Permit rail systems and operations to be planned on a more reliable basis. The assumption of independently and identically distributed(IID) error terms in the MNL model leads to its infamous independence from irrelevant alternatives (IIA) property. Relaxation of the IID assumption has been undertaken along a number or isolated dimensions leading to the development of the MNL model. For business and related rail travel patterns, the most important variables of choice were time and frequency to the chosen destination. The calibrated model showed high agreement between observed and Predicted market shares. The model is expected to be of use to railroad authorities in Planning and determining business strategies in the Increasingly competitive environment or regional rail transport.

Modeling the Effect of Consideration Set-Based Reference Price: Empirical Bayes & Latent Class Approach (고려상품군을 반영한 준거가격효과의 모형화: Empirical Bayes & Latent Class Approach)

  • Chang, Kwangpil
    • Asia Marketing Journal
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    • v.8 no.1
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2006
  • A couple of previous studies have warned against the use of homogeneous choice models in assessing the effect of reference price since unaccounted for response heterogeneity may result in spurious reference price effects(Chang, Siddarth and Weinberg 1999; Bell and Lattin 2000). According to Meyer and Kahn(1991), not accounting for consideration set heterogeneity may also bias the effect parameters in the choice model. Therefore, failure to account for these two sources of bias, in fact, have cast doubt on the empirical support for reference price effects in general. In view of aforementioned potential sources of bias, the author investigates the robustness of loss aversion effect in the reference-dependent model after accounting for heterogeneity in response as well as consideration set. The proposed model defines individual household's consideration set based on the posterior distribution of preference obtained from the Empirical Bayes approach. In addition, the same posterior distribution is used to form household-specific reference prices. Response heterogeneity correction is carried out via the Latent Class approach. The proposed model outperforms the Reference-Dependent model that includes the reference price measure most often employed in the previous studies. This implies that as a way of simplifying decision task, consumers restrict their consideration set to a subset of available brands not only in making a brand choice but also in forming reference prices.

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Primary Solution Evaluations for Interpreting Electromagnetic Data (전자탐사 자료 해석을 위한 1차장 계산)

  • Kim, Hee-Joon;Choi, Ji-Hyang;Han, Nu-Ree;Song, Yoon-Ho;Lee, Ki-Ha
    • Geophysics and Geophysical Exploration
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    • v.12 no.4
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    • pp.361-366
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    • 2009
  • Layered-earth Green's functions in electormagnetic (EM) surveys play a key role in modeling the response of exploration targets. They are computed through the Hankel transforms of analytic kernels. Computational precision depends upon the choice of algebraically equivalent forms by which these kemels are expressed. Since three-dimensional (3D) modeling can require a huge number of Green's function evaluations, total computational time can be influenced by computational time for the Hankel transform evaluations. Linear digital filters have proven to be a fast and accurate method of computing these Hankel transforms. In EM modeling for 3D inversion, electric fields are generally evaluated by the secondary field formulation to avoid the singularity problem. In this study, three components of electric fields for five different sources on the surface of homogeneous half-space were derived as primary field solutions. Moreover, reflection coefficients in TE and TM modes were produced to calculate EM responses accurately for a two-layered model having a sea layer. Accurate primary fields should substantially improve accuracy and decrease computation times for Green's function-based problems like MT problems and marine EM surveys.

Analysis of Trends in Science Gifted Education Using Topic Modeling (토픽 모델링을 활용한 과학영재교육 연구동향 분석)

  • Kim, Hye Won;Jhun, Youngseok
    • Journal of Korean Elementary Science Education
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    • v.40 no.3
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    • pp.283-294
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    • 2021
  • The purpose of this study is to examine the trends of science gifted education-related research for the last 5 years using LDA topic modeling. To achieve the purpose of the study, 2,404 keywords of 292 domestic academic papers were analyzed using RISS, KISS, and DBpia. The main results were as follows. First, the number of researches in science gifted education has been decreasing since 2019. In the science gifted education research, the top 10 keywords were 'students', 'program', 'elementary school', 'class', 'creativity', 'gifted education', 'awareness', 'teacher', 'education', and 'activity'. Second, as a result of topic modeling analysis, 10 topics were derived. Research topics mainly conducted in science gifted education for the past five years are 'Affective characteristics of science gifted students', 'Characteristics of science gifted students in middle school', 'Development and application of science gifted education programs', 'Education programs of science gifted high school', 'Cognitive characteristics of science gifted students', 'Policy of science gifted education', 'Science gifted students and creativity', 'Research conducting education by science gifted students', 'Academic and career choice of science gifted students', 'Science concept of science gifted Students'. In the past, the proportion of specific topics was relatively high, but the proportion between topics does not differ significantly as 2019 approaches. Therefore, it can be confirmed that the more recent it comes, the more research is being conducted evenly without being biased toward one subject.

Optimal Design of Fuzzy-Neural Networkd Structure Using HCM and Hybrid Identification Algorithm (HCM과 하이브리드 동정 알고리즘을 이용한 퍼지-뉴럴 네트워크 구조의 최적 설계)

  • Oh, Sung-Kwun;Park, Ho-Sung;Kim, Hyun-Ki
    • The Transactions of the Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers D
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    • v.50 no.7
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    • pp.339-349
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    • 2001
  • This paper suggests an optimal identification method for complex and nonlinear system modeling that is based on Fuzzy-Neural Networks(FNN). The proposed Hybrid Identification Algorithm is based on Yamakawa's FNN and uses the simplified inference as fuzzy inference method and Error Back Propagation Algorithm as learning rule. In this paper, the FNN modeling implements parameter identification using HCM algorithm and hybrid structure combined with two types of optimization theories for nonlinear systems. We use a HCM(Hard C-Means) clustering algorithm to find initial apexes of membership function. The parameters such as apexes of membership functions, learning rates, and momentum coefficients are adjusted using hybrid algorithm. The proposed hybrid identification algorithm is carried out using both a genetic algorithm and the improved complex method. Also, an aggregated objective function(performance index) with weighting factor is introduced to achieve a sound balance between approximation and generalization abilities of the model. According to the selection and adjustment of a weighting factor of an aggregate objective function which depends on the number of data and a certain degree of nonlinearity(distribution of I/O data), we show that it is available and effective to design an optimal FNN model structure with mutual balance and dependency between approximation and generalization abilities. To evaluate the performance of the proposed model, we use the time series data for gas furnace, the data of sewage treatment process and traffic route choice process.

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A Study of Statistical Analysis of Rock Joint Directional Data (암반 절리 방향성 자료의 통계적 분석 기법에 관한 연구)

  • 류동우;김영민;이희근
    • Tunnel and Underground Space
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    • v.12 no.1
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    • pp.19-30
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    • 2002
  • Rock joint orientation is one of important geometric attributes that have an influence on the stability of rock structures such as rock slopes and tunnels. Especially, statistical models of the geometric attributes of rock joints can provide a probabilistic approach of rock engineering problems. The result from probabilistic modeling relies on the choice of statistical model. Therefore, it is critical to define a representative statistical model for joint orientation data as well as joint size and intensity and build up a series of modeling procedure including analytical validation. In this paper, we have examined a theoretical methodology for the statistical estimate and hypothesis analysis based upon Fisher distribution and bivariate normal distribution. In addition, we have proposed the algorithms of random number generator which is applied to the simulation of rock joint networks and risk analysis.

Interest-based Customer Segmentation Methodology Using Topic Modeling (토픽 분석을 활용한 관심 기반 고객 세분화 방법론)

  • Hyun, Yoonjin;Kim, Namgyu;Cho, Yoonho
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.77-93
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    • 2015
  • As the range of the customer choice becomes more diverse, the average life span of companies' products and services is becoming shorter. Most companies are striving to maximize the revenue by understanding the customer's needs and providing customized products and services. However, companies had to bear a significant burden, in terms of the time and cost involved in the process of determining each individual customer's needs. Therefore, an alternative method is employed that involves grouping the customers into different categories based on certain criteria and establishing a marketing strategy tailored for each group. In this way, customer segmentation and customer clustering are performed using demographic information and behavioral information. Demographic information included sex, age, income level, and etc., while behavioral information was usually identified indirectly through customers' purchase history and search history. However, there is a limitation regarding companies' customer behavioral information, because the information is usually obtained through the limited data provided by a customer on a company's website. This is because the pattern indicated when a customer accesses a particular site might not be representative of the general tendency of that customer. Therefore, in this study, rather than the pattern indicated through a particular site, a customer's interest is identified using that customer's access record pertaining to external news. Hence, by utilizing this method, we proposed a methodology to perform customer segmentation. In addition, by extracting the main issues through a topic analysis covering approximately 3,000 Internet news articles, the actual experiment applying customer segmentation is performed and the applicability of the proposed methodology is analyzed.

Multiagent Enabled Modeling and Implementation of SCM (멀티에이전트 기반 SCM 모델링 및 구현)

  • Kim Tae Woon;Yang Seong Min;Seo Dae Hee
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.12 no.2
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    • pp.57-72
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    • 2003
  • The purpose of this paper is to propose the modeling of multiagent based SCM and implement the prototype in the Internet environment. SCM process follows the supply chain operations reference (SCOR) model which has been suggested by Supply Chain Counsil. SCOR model has been positioned to become the industry standard for describing and improving operational process in SCM. Five basic processes, plan, source, matte, deliver and return are defined in the SCOR model, through which a company establishes its supply chain competitive objectives. A supply chain is a world wide network of suppliers, factories, warehouses, distribution centers and retailers through which raw materials are acquired, transformed or manufactured and delivered to customers by autonomous or semiautonomous process. With the pressure from the higher standard of customer compliance, a frequent model change, product complexity and globalization, the combination of supply chain process with an advanced infrastructure in terms of multiagent systems have been highly required. Since SCM is fundamentally concerned with coherence among multiple decision makers, a multiagent framework based on explicit communication between constituent agents such as suppliers, manufacturers, and distributors is a natural choice. Multiagent framework is defined to perform different activities within a supply chain. Dynamic and changing functions of supply chain can be dealt with multi-agent by cooperating with other agents. In the areas of inventory management, remote diagnostics, communications with field workers, order fulfillment including tracking and monitoring, stock visibility, real-time shop floor data collection, asset tracking and warehousing, customer-centric supply chain can be applied and implemented utilizing multiagent. In this paper, for the order processing event between the buyer and seller relationship, multiagent were defined corresponding to the SCOR process. A prototype system was developed and implemented on the actual TCP/IP environment for the purchase order processing event. The implementation result assures that multiagent based SCM enhances the speed, visibility, proactiveness and responsiveness of activities in the supply chain.

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