• Title/Summary/Keyword: Changing point analysis

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A Probabilistic Estimation of Changing Points of Seoul Rainfall Using BH Bayesian Analysis (BH 베이지안 분석을 통한 서울지점 강우자료의 확률적 변화시점 추정)

  • Hwang, Seok-Hwan;Kim, Joong-Hoon;Yoo, Chul-Sang;Jung, Sung-Won
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.43 no.7
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    • pp.645-655
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    • 2010
  • In this study, occurrences of relative probabilistic changing points between Chukwooki rainfall data (CWK) and modern rain gage data (MRG) were analyzed using Barry and Hartigan (BH) Bayesian changing points estimation method which estimated the changing points by calculation of change probabilities at each point. Since any natural phenomenon cannot be simulated identically and perfectly, a statistical method which can not consider the sequential order has its limitation on prediction of a specific time of occurrence. In this respect, Homogeneity analysis between CWK and MRG was performed through the occurrence investigation of relative probabilistic changing points for four rainfall characteristics of data sets using BH bayesian model which estimate the change point by calculating the relative probabilities in each data points. The results show that statistical characteristics of CWK are not different significantly from MRG, even though considered that there may be little quantitative difference CWK and MRG caused from limitation of measurement accuracy of CWK.

A development of hierarchical bayesian model for changing point analysis at watershed scale (유역단위에서의 연강수량의 변동점 분석을 위한 계층적 Bayesian 분석기법 개발)

  • Kim, Jin-Guk;Kim, Jin-Young;Kim, Yoon-Hee;Kwon, Hyun-Han
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.50 no.2
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    • pp.75-87
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    • 2017
  • In recent decades, extreme events have been significantly increased over the Korean Peninsula due to climate variability and climate change. The potential changes in hydrologic cycle associated with the extreme events increase uncertainty in water resources planning and designing. For these reasons, a reliable changing point analysis is generally required to better understand regime changes in hydrologic time series at watershed scale. In this study, a hierarchical changing point analysis approach that can apply in a watershed scale is developed by combining the existing changing point analysis method and hierarchical Bayesian method. The proposed model was applied to the selected stations that have annual rainfall data longer than 40 years. The results showed that the proposed model can quantitatively detect the shift in precipitation in the middle of 1990s and identify the increase in annual precipitation compared to the several decades prior to the 1990s. Finally, we explored the changes in precipitation and sea level pressure in the context of large-scale climate anomalies using reanalysis data, for a given change point. It was concluded that the identified large-scale patterns were substantially different from each other.

The Changing Point Analysis of Annual Maximum Rainfall

  • Sung, Jang-Hyun;Kang, Hyun-Suk;Park, Su-Hee;Cho, Chun-Ho;Kim, Young-Oh
    • Proceedings of the Korea Water Resources Association Conference
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    • 2011.05a
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    • pp.22-22
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    • 2011
  • 기존의 빈도해석(frequency analysis) 방법은 자료의 정상성(stationarity)을 가정하고 있다. 즉, 자료 분포가 기상에 영향을 받는 정도가 통계적으로 유의하지 않다는 것을 의미하는데 최근의 관측값들은 주기를 나타내거나 증가, 감소하는 경향을 자주 보이고 있고 이는 정상성에 대한 가정이 더 이상 유효하지 않음을 의미한다. 본 연구는 최근 증가경향이 두드러지게 나타나고 있는 관측 연최대 일강우량을 대상으로 증가 변동점(changing point)을 탐색하였다. 이를 위하여 Barry and Hartigan이 1999년에 제안한 BCP (Bayesian Change Point) 방법을 우리나라 전체 강우 관측지점에 적용하였다. 적용 결과, 2000년대를 기준으로 이전의 관측값과 통계적 특성이 다른 관측값들이 많이 발생하는 것을 알 수 있었다. 향후, 매개변수와 시간의 회귀분석(regression analysis)으로 확률분포형의 미래 매개변수를 구하는 비정상성 빈도해석 방법 적용시, BCP 결과로 얻은 변동점을 바탕으로 회귀분석의 구간을 적절하게 선택한다면 계산된 결과의 신뢰성이 더욱 향상되리라 본다.

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Consideration to the Stability of FLC using The Circle Criterion (Circle Criterion을 이용한 FLC의 안정도에 대한 고찰)

  • Lee, Kyoung-Woong;Choi, Han-Soo
    • Journal of Institute of Control, Robotics and Systems
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.525-529
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    • 2009
  • Most of FLC received input data from error e and change-of-error e' with no relation with system complexity. Basic scheme follows typical PD and PI or PID Controller and that has been developed through fixed ME In this paper, We studied the relationship between MF and system response and system response through changing Fuzzy variable of consequence MF and propose the simple FLC using this relationship. The response of FLC is changed according to the width of Fuzzy variable of consequence MF. As changing the Fuzzy variable of consequence MF shows various nonlinear characteristic, we studied the relation between response and MF using analytical method. We designed the effective FLC using three-variable MF and nine rules and took simulation for verification. In this study, we propose the method to design system with FLC in stability point which is an impotent characteristic of designing system. The circle criterion which is adapted to analysis the nonlinear system is put to use for proposed method. Since SISO FLC has a time-invariant and odd characteristic we can use the critical point not disk which is generally used to determine the stability in the circle criterion, to determine the stability. Using this, we can get the maximum critical point plot of SISO FLC with changing the consequence fuzzy variables. The predetermined critical point plot of FLC can be used to decide the region of the system to be stable. This method is effectively used to design the SISO FLC.

The analysis of MPPT algorithms (최대전력추종제어기법 비교 분석)

  • Lee, Kyung-Soo;Jung, Young-Seck;So, Jung-Hoon;Yu, Gwon-Jong;Choi, Jae-Ho
    • Proceedings of the KIEE Conference
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    • 2004.04a
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    • pp.212-214
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    • 2004
  • As the maximum power operating point(MPOP) of photovoltaic(PV) power generation systems changes with changing atmospheric conditions such as solar radiation and temperature, an important consideration in the design of efficient PV system is to track the MPOP correctly. Many maximum power point tracking(MPPT) techniques have been considered in the past, however, techniques using microprocessors with appropriate MPPT algorithms are favored because of their flexibility and compatibility with different PV arrays. Although the efficiency of these MPPT algorithms is usually high, it drops noticeably in case of rapidly changing atmospheric conditions. This paper analysed and researched the characteristics of three MPPT algorithms; P&O, Inc&Cond, ImP&O and simulated them with irradiance changing.

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Performance Comparison of Phase Detectors for the Synchronization Analysis of Electroencephalographic Signal (뇌파신호의 동기해석을 위한 위상검출기의 성능비교)

  • Kim, HyeJin;Lee, JeeEun;Yoo, Sun K.
    • Journal of the Institute of Electronics and Information Engineers
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    • v.50 no.12
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    • pp.277-284
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    • 2013
  • The analysis of phase synchronization characteristics from EEG signals is important for the understanding of information processing functionality in the brain network. In this paper, wavelet transformation(WT), Hilbert tansformation (HT), complex demodulation (CD) methods having time localization characteristics were applied to real evoked potential data and noise added simulation data with center frequencies corresponding to EEG bands for the estimation performance analysis of phase offset, phase changing point, and interband crosstalk. The WT is the best both in ${\delta}$, ${\theta}$, and ${\alpha}$ band signal decomposition, and in analyzing phase synchronization performance. The CD can be efficiently used in changing point detection under tolerant noise condition because of its abrupt performance degradation over noise endurance level. From experimental observations, the WT is the most suitable in phase synchronization application of EEG signal, and the CD can be affordable in restricted application such as changing point detection for higher bands than ${\delta}$. Particularly, WT and CD can be used to detect the changing instant of brain function by indirectly estimating the phase changing point.

Solar Comparative Analysis of Various MPPT Algorithms (태양광 최대전력추종 제어알고리즘 성능 비교 분석)

  • Shim, Jae-Hwe;Kang, San;Kim, Shin-Ah;Hong, Ki-Nam;Choi, Ju-Yeop
    • Proceedings of the KIPE Conference
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    • 2010.07a
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    • pp.77-78
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    • 2010
  • As the maximum power operating point(MPOP) of photovoltaic(PV) power systems alters with changing atmospheric conditions, the efficiency of maximum power point tracking(MPPT) is important in PV power systems. Moreover, grid-connected PV system occurs some problems such as voltage inequality and harmonics. Therefore, this paper presents the results of a grid-connected PV system modeling by PSIM simulator and investigates the influence on the grid-connected PV system from aspect of power quality, i.e. voltage drop. This paper includes four MPPT algorithms; Perturbation & Observation(P&O), Improved P&O, Increment Conductance(Incond), Hysterisis simulated with irradiation changing.

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Positive Solutions of Nonlinear Neumann Boundary Value Problems with Sign-Changing Green's Function

  • Elsanosi, Mohammed Elnagi M.
    • Kyungpook Mathematical Journal
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    • v.59 no.1
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    • pp.65-71
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    • 2019
  • This paper is concerned with the existence of positive solutions of the nonlinear Neumann boundary value problems $$\{u^{{\prime}{\prime}}+a(t)u={\lambda}b(t)f(u),\;t{\in}(0,1),\\u^{\prime}(0)=u^{\prime}(1)=0$$, where $a,b{\in}C[0,1]$ with $a(t)>0,\;b(t){\geq}0$ and the Green's function of the linear problem $$\{u^{{\prime}{\prime}}+a(t)u=0,\;t{\in}(0,1),\\u^{\prime}(0)=u^{\prime}(1)=0$$ may change its sign on $[0,1]{\times}[0,1]$. Our analysis relies on the Leray-Schauder fixed point theorem.

Optimal locations of point supports in laminated rectangular plates for maximum fundamental frequency

  • Wang, C.M.;Xiang, Y.;Kitipornchai, S.
    • Structural Engineering and Mechanics
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    • v.5 no.6
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    • pp.691-703
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    • 1997
  • This paper investigates the optimal locations of internal point supports in a symmetric crossply laminated rectangular plate for maximum fundamental frequency of vibration. The method used for solving this optimization problem involves the Rayleigh-Ritz method for the vibration analysis and the simplex method of Nelder and Mead for the iterative search of the optimum support locations. Being a continuum method, the Rayleigh-Ritz method allows easy handling of the changing point support locations during the optimization search. Rectangular plates of various boundary conditions, aspect ratios, composed of different numbers of layers, and with one, two and three internal point supports are analysed. The interesting results on the optimal locations of the point supports showed that (a) there are multiple solutions; (b) the locations are dependent on both the plate aspect ratios and the number of layers (c) the fundamental frequency may be raised significantly with appropriate positioning of the point supports.

Generalization of Point Feature in Digital Map through Point Pattern Analysis (점패턴분석을 이용한 수치지형도의 점사상 일반화)

  • 유근배
    • Spatial Information Research
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    • v.6 no.1
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    • pp.11-23
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    • 1998
  • Map generalization functions to visualize the spatial data or to change their scale by changing the level of details of data. Until recently, the studies on map generalization have concentrated more on line features than on point features. However, point features are one of the essential components of digital maps and cannnot be ignored because of the great amount of information they carry. This study, therefore, aimed to find out a detailed procedure of point features' generalization. Particularly, this work chose the distribution pattern of point features as the most important factor in the point generalization in investigating the geometric characteristics of source data. First, it attempted to find out the characteristics of distribution pattern of point features through quadrat analysis with Grieg-Smith method and nearest-neighbour analysis. It then generalized point features through the generalization threshold which did not alter the characteristics of distribution pattern and the removal of redudant point feautres. Therefore, the generalization procedure of point features provided by this work maintained the geometric characteristics as much as possible.

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