• Title/Summary/Keyword: Change prediction

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Recent Progress in Air Conditioning and Refrigeration Research - A Review of papers Published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering in 1998 and 1999 - (공기조화, 냉동 분야의 최근 연구 동향 - 1998년 1999년 학회지 논문에 대한 종합적 고찰 -)

  • 이재헌;김광우;김병주;이재효;김우승;조형희;김민수
    • Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigeration Engineering
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    • v.12 no.12
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    • pp.1098-1125
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    • 2000
  • A review on the papers published in the Korean Journal of Air-Conditioning and Refrigerating Engineering in 1998 and 1999 has been done. Focus has been put on current status of research in the aspect of heating, cooling, ventilation, sanitation and building environment. The conclusions are as follows. 1) A review of the recent studies on fluid flow, turbomachinery and pipe-network shows that many experimental investigations are conducted in applications of impingement jets. Researches on turbulent flows, pipe flows, pipe-networks are focused on analyses of practical systems and prediction of system performance. The results of noise reduction in the turbomachinery are also reported. 2) A review of the recent studies on heat transfer analysis and heat exchanger shows that there were many papers on the channel flow with the application to the design of heat exchanger in the heat transfer analysis. Various experimental and numerical papers on heat exchanger were also published, however, there were few papers available for the analysis of whole system including heat exchanger. 3) A review of the recent studies on heat pump system have focused on the multi-type system and the heat pump cycle to utilize treated sewage as the heat source. The defrosting and the frosting behaviors in the fin-tube heat exchanger is experimentally examined by several authors. Several papers on the ice storage cooling system are presented to show the dynamic simulation program and optimal operation conditions. The study on the micro heat pipes for the cooling of high power electronic components is carried out to examine the characteristics of heat and mass transfer processed. In addition to these, new type of separate thermosyphon is studied experimentally. 4) The recent studies on refrigeration/air conditioning system have focused on the system performance and efficiency for new alternative refrigerants. New systems operating with natural refrigerants are drawing lots of attention. In addition to these, evaporation and condensation heat transfer characteristics of traditional and new refrigerants are investigated for plain tubes and also for microfin tubes. Capillary tubes and orifice are main topics of research as expansion devices and studies on thermophysical properties of new refrigerants and refrigerant/oil mixtures are widely carried out. 5) A review of the recent studies on absorption cooling system shows that numerous experimental and analytical studies on the improvement of absorber performance have been presented. Dynamic analysis of compressor have been performed to understand its vibration characteristics. However research works on tow-phase flow and heat transfer, which could be encountered in the refrigeration system and various phase-change heat exchanger, were seemed to be insufficient. 6) A review of recent studies on duct system shows that the methods for circuit analysis, and flow balancing have been presented. Researches on ventilation are focused on the measurement of ventilation efficiency, and variation of ventilation efficiency with ventilation methods by numerous experimental and numerical studies. Furthermore, many studies have been conducted in real building in order to estimate indoor thermal environments. Many research works to get some information for cooling tower design have been performed but are insufficient. 7) A review on the recent studies on architectural thermal environment and building mechanical systems design shows that thermal comfort analysis is sitting environment, thermal performance analysis of Korean traditional building structures., and evaluation of building environmental load have been performed. However research works to improve the performance of mechanical system design and construction technology were seemed to be insufficient.

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Projection of Potential Cultivation Region of Satsuma Mandarin and 'Shiranuhi' Mandarin Hybrid Based on RCP 8.5 Emission Scenario (RCP 8.5 기후변화시나리오에 근거한 온주밀감과 '부지화'의 잠재적 재배지 변화 예측)

  • Moon, Young-Eel;Kang, Seok-Beom;Lee, Hyejin;Choi, Young-Hun;Son, In-Chang;Lee, Dong-Hoon;Kim, Sung-Ki;An, Moon-Il
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.19 no.4
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    • pp.215-222
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    • 2017
  • The potential change of the cultivation area of main citrus cultivars, satsuma mandarin (Citrus unshiu Marc.) and 'Shiranuhi' mandarin hybrid [(Citrus unshiu ${\times}$ C. sinensis) ${\times}$ C. reticulata] were determined with base year (1981 to 2010) to 2090. The meteorological data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and the digital agricultural climate map of 30m-solution based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 was used for projection of potential cultivation area. As a result, the potential suitable region of satsuma mandarin included almost Jeju region during base year. At the 2030s, the potential suitable region of satsuma mandarin increased and the cultivable region also increased focused on the coast region of Jeonnam province. From the 2060s, the suitable area spread out to mountain area of Jeju, Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, and the coast region of Kangwon, and the cultivable region expanded to the area of Gyeongbuk, Chungnam, and Jeonbuk. In the case of 'Shiranuhi' mandarin hybrid, the suitable region included only the partial coast area of Jeju, and cultivable area covered Jeju region and the partial southern coast of Jeonnam during the standard period. At the 2030s, the suitable region of 'Shiranuhi' included the current cultivation area of satsuma mandarin, and the cultivable region moved to northward by the partial southern coast region. At the 2090s, the slightly increased suitable region covered all Jeju regions, Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, and the coast area of Kangwon, and the cultivable region proceeded northward focusing on the coastline. In conclusion, the prediction of the potential land for citrus cultivation based on the RCP 8.5 showed that the suitable region of satsuma mandarin decreased, whereas that of cultivation of 'Shiranuhi' increased. Moreover, it was forecasted that citrus cultivation area would extend to Kangwon region at the end of the $21^{st}$ century.

Recent Changes in Bloom Dates of Robinia pseudoacacia and Bloom Date Predictions Using a Process-Based Model in South Korea (최근 12년간 아까시나무 만개일의 변화와 과정기반모형을 활용한 지역별 만개일 예측)

  • Kim, Sukyung;Kim, Tae Kyung;Yoon, Sukhee;Jang, Keunchang;Lim, Hyemin;Lee, Wi Young;Won, Myoungsoo;Lim, Jong-Hwan;Kim, Hyun Seok
    • Journal of Korean Society of Forest Science
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    • v.110 no.3
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    • pp.322-340
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    • 2021
  • Due to climate change and its consequential spring temperature rise, flowering time of Robinia pseudoacacia has advanced and a simultaneous blooming phenomenon occurred in different regions in South Korea. These changes in flowering time became a major crisis in the domestic beekeeping industry and the demand for accurate prediction of flowering time for R. pseudoacacia is increasing. In this study, we developed and compared performance of four different models predicting flowering time of R. pseudoacacia for the entire country: a Single Model for the country (SM), Modified Single Model (MSM) using correction factors derived from SM, Group Model (GM) estimating parameters for each region, and Local Model (LM) estimating parameters for each site. To achieve this goal, the bloom date data observed at 26 points across the country for the past 12 years (2006-2017) and daily temperature data were used. As a result, bloom dates for the north central region, where spring temperature increase was more than two-fold higher than southern regions, have advanced and the differences compared with the southwest region decreased by 0.7098 days per year (p-value=0.0417). Model comparisons showed MSM and LM performed better than the other models, as shown by 24% and 15% lower RMSE than SM, respectively. Furthermore, validation with 16 additional sites for 4 years revealed co-krigging of LM showed better performance than expansion of MSM for the entire nation (RMSE: p-value=0.0118, Bias: p-value=0.0471). This study improved predictions of bloom dates for R. pseudoacacia and proposed methods for reliable expansion to the entire nation.

Numerical Prediction for Fluidized Bed Chlorination Reaction of Ilmenite Ore (일메나이트광의 유동층 염화반응에 대한 수치적 예측)

  • Chung, Dong-Kyu;Jung, Eun-Jin;Lee, Mi Sun;Kim, Jinyoung;Song, Duk-Yong
    • Clean Technology
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    • v.25 no.2
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    • pp.107-113
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    • 2019
  • Numerical model that considered the shrinking core model and elutriation and degradation of particles was developed to predict selective chlorination of ilmenite and carbo-chlorination of $TiO_2$ in a two stage fluidized bed chlorination furnace. It is possible to analyze the fluidized bed chlorination reaction to be able to reflect particle distribution for mass balances and the chlorination reaction. The numerical model showed an accuracy with error less than 6% compared with fluidized bed experiments. The chlorination degree with particle size change was greater with a smaller particle size, and there was a 100 min difference to obtain a chlorination degree of 1 between $75{\mu}m$ and $275{\mu}m$. This was not shown to such a great extent with variation of temperature ($800{\sim}1000^{\circ}C$), and there was only a 10 min difference to obtain a chlorination degree of 0.9. In the first selective chlorination process, the mass reduction rate approached to the theoretical value of 0.4735 after 180 min, and chlorination changed the Fe component into $FeCl_2$ or $FeCl_3$ and showed nearly 1. In the second carbo-chlorination process, the chlorination degree of $TiO_2$ approached 0.98 and the mass fraction reached 0.02 with conversion into $TiCl_4$. In the first selective chlorination process, 98% of $TiO_2$ was produced at 180 min, and this was changed into 99% of $TiCl_4$ after an additional 90 min. Also the mass reduction rate of $TiO_2$ was reduced to 99% in the second continuous carbo-chlorination process.

A Long-term Variability of the Extent of East Asian Desert (동아시아 사막 면적의 경년변화분석)

  • Han, Hyeon-Gyeong;Lee, Eunkyung;Son, Sanghun;Choi, Sungwon;Lee, Kyeong-Sang;Seo, Minji;Jin, Donghyun;Kim, Honghee;Kwon, Chaeyoung;Lee, Darae;Han, Kyung-Soo
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.34 no.6_1
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    • pp.869-877
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    • 2018
  • The area of desert in East Asia is increasing every year, and it cause a great cost of social damage. Because desert is widely distributed and it is difficult to approach people, remote sensing using satellites is commonly used. But the study of desert area comparison is insufficient which is calculated by satellite sensor. It is important to recognize the characteristics of the desert area data that are calculated for each sensor because the desert area calculated according to the selection of the sensor may be different and may affect the climate prediction and desertification prevention measures. In this study, the desert area of Northeast Asia in 2001-2013 was calculated and compared using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and Vegetation. As a result of the comparison, the desert area of Vegetation increased by $3,020km^2/year$, while in the case of MODIS, it decreased by $20,911km^2/year$. We performed indirect validation because It is difficult to obtain actual data. We analyzed the correlation with the occurrence frequency of Asian dust affected by desert area change. As a result, MODIS showed a relatively low correlation with R = 0.2071 and Vegetation had a relatively high correlation with R = 0.4837. It is considered that Vegetation performed more accurate desert area calculation in Northeast Asian desert area.

Estimation of freeze damage risk according to developmental stage of fruit flower buds in spring (봄철 과수 꽃눈 발육 수준에 따른 저온해 위험도 산정)

  • Kim, Jin-Hee;Kim, Dae-jun;Kim, Soo-ock;Yun, Eun-jeong;Ju, Okjung;Park, Jong Sun;Shin, Yong Soon
    • Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology
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    • v.21 no.1
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    • pp.55-64
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    • 2019
  • The flowering seasons can be advanced due to climate change that would cause an abnormally warm winter. Such warm winter would increase the frequency of crop damages resulted from sudden occurrences of low temperature before and after the vegetative growth stages, e.g., the period from germination to flowering. The degree and pattern of freezing damage would differ by the development stage of each individual fruit tree even in an orchard. A critical temperature, e.g., killing temperature, has been used to predict freeze damage by low-temperature conditions under the assumption that such damage would be associated with the development stage of a fruit flower bud. However, it would be challenging to apply the critical temperature to a region where spatial variation in temperature would be considerably high. In the present study, a phenological model was used to estimate major bud development stages, which would be useful for prediction of regional risks for the freeze damages. We also derived a linear function to calculate a probabilistic freeze risk in spring, which can quantitatively evaluate the risk level based solely on forecasted weather data. We calculated the dates of freeze damage occurrences and spatial risk distribution according to main production areas by applying the spring freeze risk function to apple, peach, and pear crops in 2018. It was predicted that the most extensive low-temperature associated freeze damage could have occurred on April 8. It was also found that the risk function was useful to identify the main production areas where the greatest damage to a given crop could occur. These results suggest that the freezing damage associated with the occurrence of low-temperature events could decrease providing early warning for growers to respond abnormal weather conditions for their farm.

Comparative assessment and uncertainty analysis of ensemble-based hydrologic data assimilation using airGRdatassim (airGRdatassim을 이용한 앙상블 기반 수문자료동화 기법의 비교 및 불확실성 평가)

  • Lee, Garim;Lee, Songhee;Kim, Bomi;Woo, Dong Kook;Noh, Seong Jin
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.55 no.10
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    • pp.761-774
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    • 2022
  • Accurate hydrologic prediction is essential to analyze the effects of drought, flood, and climate change on flow rates, water quality, and ecosystems. Disentangling the uncertainty of the hydrological model is one of the important issues in hydrology and water resources research. Hydrologic data assimilation (DA), a technique that updates the status or parameters of a hydrological model to produce the most likely estimates of the initial conditions of the model, is one of the ways to minimize uncertainty in hydrological simulations and improve predictive accuracy. In this study, the two ensemble-based sequential DA techniques, ensemble Kalman filter, and particle filter are comparatively analyzed for the daily discharge simulation at the Yongdam catchment using airGRdatassim. The results showed that the values of Kling-Gupta efficiency (KGE) were improved from 0.799 in the open loop simulation to 0.826 in the ensemble Kalman filter and to 0.933 in the particle filter. In addition, we analyzed the effects of hyper-parameters related to the data assimilation methods such as precipitation and potential evaporation forcing error parameters and selection of perturbed and updated states. For the case of forcing error conditions, the particle filter was superior to the ensemble in terms of the KGE index. The size of the optimal forcing noise was relatively smaller in the particle filter compared to the ensemble Kalman filter. In addition, with more state variables included in the updating step, performance of data assimilation improved, implicating that adequate selection of updating states can be considered as a hyper-parameter. The simulation experiments in this study implied that DA hyper-parameters needed to be carefully optimized to exploit the potential of DA methods.

A study on the derivation and evaluation of flow duration curve (FDC) using deep learning with a long short-term memory (LSTM) networks and soil water assessment tool (SWAT) (LSTM Networks 딥러닝 기법과 SWAT을 이용한 유량지속곡선 도출 및 평가)

  • Choi, Jung-Ryel;An, Sung-Wook;Choi, Jin-Young;Kim, Byung-Sik
    • Journal of Korea Water Resources Association
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    • v.54 no.spc1
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    • pp.1107-1118
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    • 2021
  • Climate change brought on by global warming increased the frequency of flood and drought on the Korean Peninsula, along with the casualties and physical damage resulting therefrom. Preparation and response to these water disasters requires national-level planning for water resource management. In addition, watershed-level management of water resources requires flow duration curves (FDC) derived from continuous data based on long-term observations. Traditionally, in water resource studies, physical rainfall-runoff models are widely used to generate duration curves. However, a number of recent studies explored the use of data-based deep learning techniques for runoff prediction. Physical models produce hydraulically and hydrologically reliable results. However, these models require a high level of understanding and may also take longer to operate. On the other hand, data-based deep-learning techniques offer the benefit if less input data requirement and shorter operation time. However, the relationship between input and output data is processed in a black box, making it impossible to consider hydraulic and hydrological characteristics. This study chose one from each category. For the physical model, this study calculated long-term data without missing data using parameter calibration of the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a physical model tested for its applicability in Korea and other countries. The data was used as training data for the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) data-based deep learning technique. An anlysis of the time-series data fond that, during the calibration period (2017-18), the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and the determinanation coefficient for fit comparison were high at 0.04 and 0.03, respectively, indicating that the SWAT results are superior to the LSTM results. In addition, the annual time-series data from the models were sorted in the descending order, and the resulting flow duration curves were compared with the duration curves based on the observed flow, and the NSE for the SWAT and the LSTM models were 0.95 and 0.91, respectively, and the determination coefficients were 0.96 and 0.92, respectively. The findings indicate that both models yield good performance. Even though the LSTM requires improved simulation accuracy in the low flow sections, the LSTM appears to be widely applicable to calculating flow duration curves for large basins that require longer time for model development and operation due to vast data input, and non-measured basins with insufficient input data.

Dynamic Equilibrium Position Prediction Model for the Confluence Area of Nakdong River (낙동강 합류부 삼각주의 동적 평형 위치 예측 모델: 감천-낙동강 합류점 중심 분석 연구)

  • Minsik Kim;Haein Shin;Wook-Hyun Nahm;Wonsuck Kim
    • Economic and Environmental Geology
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    • v.56 no.4
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    • pp.435-445
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    • 2023
  • A delta is a depositional landform that is formed when sediment transported by a river is deposited in a relatively low-energy environment, such as a lake, sea, or a main channel. Among these, a delta formed at the confluence of rivers has a great importance in river management and research because it has a significant impact on the hydraulic and sedimentological characteristics of the river. Recently, the equilibrium state of the confluence area has been disrupted by large-scale dredging and construction of levees in the Nakdong River. However, due to the natural recovery of the river, the confluence area is returning to its pre-dredging natural state through ongoing sedimentation. The time-series data show that the confluence delta has been steadily growing since the dredging, but once it reaches a certain size, it repeats growth and retreat, and the overall size does not change significantly. In this study, we developed a model to explain the sedimentation-erosion processes in the confluence area based on the assumption that the confluence delta reaches a dynamic equilibrium. The model is based on two fundamental principles: sedimentation due to supply from the tributary and erosion due to the main channel. The erosion coefficient that represents the Nakdong River confluence areas, was obtained using data from the tributaries of the Nakdong River. Sensitivity analyses were conducted using the developed model to understand how the confluence delta responds to changes in the sediment and water discharges of the tributary and the main channel, respectively. We then used annual average discharge of the Nakdong River's tributaries to predict the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas. Finally, we conducted a simulation experiment on the development of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta using recorded daily discharge. The results showed that even though it is a simple model, it accurately predicted the dynamic equilibrium positions of the confluence deltas in the Nakdong River, including the areas where the delta had not formed, and those where the delta had already formed and predicted the trend of the response of the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta. However, the actual retreat in the Gamcheon-Nakdong River delta was not captured fully due to errors and limitations in the simplification process. The insights through this study provide basic information on the sediment supply of the Nakdong River through the confluence areas, which can be implemented as a basic model for river maintenance and management.

Utilization of Smart Farms in Open-field Agriculture Based on Digital Twin (디지털 트윈 기반 노지스마트팜 활용방안)

  • Kim, Sukgu
    • Proceedings of the Korean Society of Crop Science Conference
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    • 2023.04a
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    • pp.7-7
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    • 2023
  • Currently, the main technologies of various fourth industries are big data, the Internet of Things, artificial intelligence, blockchain, mixed reality (MR), and drones. In particular, "digital twin," which has recently become a global technological trend, is a concept of a virtual model that is expressed equally in physical objects and computers. By creating and simulating a Digital twin of software-virtualized assets instead of real physical assets, accurate information about the characteristics of real farming (current state, agricultural productivity, agricultural work scenarios, etc.) can be obtained. This study aims to streamline agricultural work through automatic water management, remote growth forecasting, drone control, and pest forecasting through the operation of an integrated control system by constructing digital twin data on the main production area of the nojinot industry and designing and building a smart farm complex. In addition, it aims to distribute digital environmental control agriculture in Korea that can reduce labor and improve crop productivity by minimizing environmental load through the use of appropriate amounts of fertilizers and pesticides through big data analysis. These open-field agricultural technologies can reduce labor through digital farming and cultivation management, optimize water use and prevent soil pollution in preparation for climate change, and quantitative growth management of open-field crops by securing digital data for the national cultivation environment. It is also a way to directly implement carbon-neutral RED++ activities by improving agricultural productivity. The analysis and prediction of growth status through the acquisition of the acquired high-precision and high-definition image-based crop growth data are very effective in digital farming work management. The Southern Crop Department of the National Institute of Food Science conducted research and development on various types of open-field agricultural smart farms such as underground point and underground drainage. In particular, from this year, commercialization is underway in earnest through the establishment of smart farm facilities and technology distribution for agricultural technology complexes across the country. In this study, we would like to describe the case of establishing the agricultural field that combines digital twin technology and open-field agricultural smart farm technology and future utilization plans.

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