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http://dx.doi.org/10.5532/KJAFM.2017.19.4.215

Projection of Potential Cultivation Region of Satsuma Mandarin and 'Shiranuhi' Mandarin Hybrid Based on RCP 8.5 Emission Scenario  

Moon, Young-Eel (Citrus Research Institute, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science, RDA)
Kang, Seok-Beom (Citrus Research Institute, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science, RDA)
Lee, Hyejin (Citrus Research Institute, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science, RDA)
Choi, Young-Hun (Citrus Research Institute, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science, RDA)
Son, In-Chang (Planning and Coordination Division, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science, RDA)
Lee, Dong-Hoon (Planning and Coordination Division, National Institute of Horticultural & Herbal Science, RDA)
Kim, Sung-Ki (Epinet Corporation)
An, Moon-Il (Epinet Corporation)
Publication Information
Korean Journal of Agricultural and Forest Meteorology / v.19, no.4, 2017 , pp. 215-222 More about this Journal
Abstract
The potential change of the cultivation area of main citrus cultivars, satsuma mandarin (Citrus unshiu Marc.) and 'Shiranuhi' mandarin hybrid [(Citrus unshiu ${\times}$ C. sinensis) ${\times}$ C. reticulata] were determined with base year (1981 to 2010) to 2090. The meteorological data provided by the Korea Meteorological Administration (KMA), and the digital agricultural climate map of 30m-solution based on the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) 8.5 was used for projection of potential cultivation area. As a result, the potential suitable region of satsuma mandarin included almost Jeju region during base year. At the 2030s, the potential suitable region of satsuma mandarin increased and the cultivable region also increased focused on the coast region of Jeonnam province. From the 2060s, the suitable area spread out to mountain area of Jeju, Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, and the coast region of Kangwon, and the cultivable region expanded to the area of Gyeongbuk, Chungnam, and Jeonbuk. In the case of 'Shiranuhi' mandarin hybrid, the suitable region included only the partial coast area of Jeju, and cultivable area covered Jeju region and the partial southern coast of Jeonnam during the standard period. At the 2030s, the suitable region of 'Shiranuhi' included the current cultivation area of satsuma mandarin, and the cultivable region moved to northward by the partial southern coast region. At the 2090s, the slightly increased suitable region covered all Jeju regions, Jeonnam, Gyeongnam, and the coast area of Kangwon, and the cultivable region proceeded northward focusing on the coastline. In conclusion, the prediction of the potential land for citrus cultivation based on the RCP 8.5 showed that the suitable region of satsuma mandarin decreased, whereas that of cultivation of 'Shiranuhi' increased. Moreover, it was forecasted that citrus cultivation area would extend to Kangwon region at the end of the $21^{st}$ century.
Keywords
Digital climate map; Freezing; Peel coloring; Acid content;
Citations & Related Records
Times Cited By KSCI : 4  (Citation Analysis)
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