• 제목/요약/키워드: Causal Model Analysis

검색결과 725건 처리시간 0.027초

도시지역의 사회구조적 특성과 살인범죄와의 인과관계 : 서울시 행정동을 중심으로 (Causal Relationship between Structural Characteristics of Metropolitan Neighborhoods and Homicide)

  • 정진성;강욱
    • 한국콘텐츠학회논문지
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    • 제13권3호
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    • pp.152-161
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    • 2013
  • 본 연구는 도시지역의 사회구조적 특성이 범죄에 미치는 영향을 생태학적 범죄이론에 근거하여 검증하고자 했다. 이를 위해 서울시의 424개 행정동을 대상으로 살인범죄에 대한 음이항 회귀분석을 실시했다. 그 결과, 기초수급자비율이 높을수록, 세대당인구수가 적을수록, 숙박 음식업비율이 높을수록 살인범죄가 증가하는 것으로 드러났다. 이는 온전한 가족의 중요성을 다시 한 번 증명해보임과 동시에, 도시지역에서는 숙박 음식업비율과 기초수급자비율이 범죄유발요인으로 작용할 수 있음을 보여준 결과였다. 과거의 시군구 대상 연구들과 더불어 유추하면 지역 특성에 맞는 맞춤형 범죄예방책이 필요함을 알 수 있었다. 살인범죄에 국한되고 횡단적 연구설계가 이루어지는 등의 몇 가지 한계점들이 있었지만, 서울시의 전체 행정동을 분석단위로 한 최초의 범죄연구로서 향후 동 단위 연구의 활성화와 효과적인 범죄예방책 마련에 기여한 의미가 있다.

국내 제조업부문의 에너지소비, 생산, 수출간의 인과관계 분석 (Analysis of Causal Relationship between Energy Consumption, Production and Export in Domestic Manufacturing Sector)

  • 김수이
    • 자원ㆍ환경경제연구
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    • 제26권1호
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    • pp.37-56
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    • 2017
  • 본 연구에서는 우리나라의 제조업을 대상으로 에너지소비, 생산, 수출의 상호 인과관계를 분석하였다. 우리나라 제조업을 9개 산업으로 나누어 1991년부터 2013년까지 패널 데이터를 구축하여 VECM 방법론과 더불어 Demitrescu and Hurlin (2012)에 의해서 개발된 패널 Granger causality test 방법을 사용하였다. 분석결과에 의하면, 생산에서 에너지소비로, 수출에서 에너지소비로의 Granger Causality가 존재하였다. 하지만 그 역으로는 Granger Causality가 성립하지 않았다. 따라서 제조업부문의 에너지절약정책은 생산이나 수출에 역효과를 발생하지 않으면서 추진될 수 있다는 Qzturk (2010)의 보존가설을 지지하고 있다. 장기적으로는 생산, 에너지소비, 수출, 노동, 자본 간에 장기 공적분관계가 존재하며, 장기균형관계에서 에너지소비가 생산의 증가에 기여하는 것으로 나타났다.

글로벌 브랜드에서 소비자-브랜드 관계 변수들의 인과관계 및 조절변수들의 효과 (Causality of Consumer-Brand Relationship Variables in Global Brand and the Effects of Moderating Variables)

  • 김규배;김병구
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제15권2호
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    • pp.121-132
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    • 2017
  • Purpose - There are many variables related to consumer-brand relationship such as brand attitude, attachment, commitment and brand loyalty and we should manage these all variables successfully to achieve a strong brand loyalty. The objective of this research is to investigate the path from brand attitude and brand attachment to brand commitment and brand loyalty. Specially, this article focuses on the moderating effects of brand type and consumer innovativeness in the causal relationships between variables. Research design, data, and methodology - The seven hypotheses were proposed and tested empirically in this research. Three of seven hypotheses were the effects of brand attitude and brand attachment on the brand commitment and brand loyalty. Another two hypotheses presented the moderating effect of brand type and other two hypotheses expressed the moderating effect of consumer innovativeness in the causal relationships between variables. Research data were collected from the surveying of university students and the 282 samples were used to test the proposed hypotheses empirically. We utilized SPSS 20.0 and AMOS 20.0 for statistical analyses such as reliability test, validity test and path analysis. Results - The results show that brand attitude influences the brand loyalty and brand attachment influences the brand commitment positively. The brand attachment also influences the brand commitment positively. We found that there is a moderating effect of brand type in the causal relationship between brand attitude and loyalty though there is no significant moderating effect in the causality between brand attachment and commitment. We also fount that there is no significant moderating effect of consumer innovativeness in the causal relationships among brand attitude, brand attachment, brand commitment and brand loyalty. In Summary, 5 of 7 hypotheses in this study were supported and 2 hypotheses were not supported. Conclusions - There is a path model of consumer-brand relationship from brand attitude and brand attachment to brand commitment and brand loyalty. Companies should provide their consumers with effective marketing program in every phase of consumer-brand relationship to build brand loyalty. In addition, there are possibilities that the relationships among brand attitude, brand attachment, brand commitment and brand loyalty are moderated by brand type and consumer innovativeness. Companies should consider perceived brand type and innovativenss of their consumers in planning and executing their various marketing programs for their brand management.

고등학생의 가출에 영향을 미치는 위험요인 (Risk Factors Influencing High School Students to Runaway)

  • 김경희;김지수
    • Child Health Nursing Research
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    • 제13권3호
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    • pp.338-348
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    • 2007
  • Purpose: This study was done to identify risk factors influencing high school students to runaway from home. A comprehensive analysis of individual, family and social environment-related factors was done. Method: The participants in this descriptive survey on causal relations were 974 students enrolled in high school who were selected by convenience sampling. The data collected in June and July, 2003 were put in to logistic regression analysis to build a prediction model. Results: 1) Individual-related factors for running away in high school students were experience with smoking and sexual intercourse. 2) Family-related factors for running away in high school students were economic status and physically ill-treatment of the types of ill-treatment. 3) social environment-related factors for running away in high school students were number of delinquent friends. Conclusions and Recommendations: Running away from home among Korean high school students was associated not only with individual factors, but also with family and social environmental factors. The findings of study suggest that board intervention programs should be provided to prevent running away form home by adolescent. It is also recommended that a program be developed that can help control the variables identified in this study along with follow up study to verify the model.

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이러닝의 특성과 유용성이 지속적 이용의도에 미치는 영향에 관한 연구 (A Study on the Influential Factors of Intention to Continued Use of e-Learning)

  • 권순동;윤숙자
    • Journal of Information Technology Applications and Management
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    • 제17권1호
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    • pp.35-54
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    • 2010
  • Why does e-Learning service for individuals remain in the early development stage? To find the answers of this question, we adopted usefulness and intention to continued use as dependent variables based on technology acceptance model and inferred convenience, cost-effectiveness, social presence, interactivity, concentration, and procrastination as independent variables based on literature review and interview with e-Learning users. Convenience and cost-effectiveness of e-Learning tend to enhance usefulness and/or intention to continued use, while lack of social presence, interactivity, and concentration of e-Learning and academic procrastination tend to hinder usefulness and/or intention to continued use. To prove this research model, we used a data set collected from the survey. The respondents of survey were the undergraduate students who used voluntarily e-Learning. Data analysis was conducted using 275 respondents by partial least square. The analysis result of causal relation indicated that convenience and cost-effectiveness influenced both usefulness and intention to continued use, and that cost-effectiveness and concentration influenced only intention to continued use. But, interactivity and procrastination did not influence usefulness and intention to continued use.

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소방대원의 이차 외상성 스트레스, 소진 및 신체적 증상의 영향요인 분석 (Analysis of Factors Influencing Secondary Traumatic Stress, Burnout, and Physical Symptoms in Firefighters)

  • 오진환;임난영
    • 기본간호학회지
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.96-106
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    • 2006
  • Purpose: This study was dont: to evaluate the factors that influence secondary traumatic stress, burnout, and physical symptoms experienced by firefighters. In addition, a hypothetical model was developed. Method: The data were collected using self-reported questionnaires from 410 field service firefighters. Data analysis was done with the SPSSWIN 10.0 program for descriptive statistics and Windows LISREL program to determine the causal relationship between the measurement variables. Results: The hypothetical model which was developed fits well with actual data(${\chi}^2$=3.16, p=0.99, GFI=1.00, AGFI=0.99, NFI=0.99, and NNFI=1.06). The variable, personality type, social support, and impact mobilization frequency had a significant effect and accounted for 7% of the secondary traumatic stress in firefighters. The variables, career, social support, and secondary traumatic stress had a significant effect and accounted for 24% of the burnout in firefighters. Social support, impact mobilization frequency, and secondary traumatic stress were important variables and accounted for 31% of the physical symptoms in firefighters. Conclusion: It is necessary for firefighters to manage themselves according to their personality types. Strategies that can increase the firefighters' social support and decrease their perceived secondary traumatic stress also need to be developed to minimize or prevent a negative effect on their health.

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남자 중학생의 흡연 경험 예측요인에 관한 연구 (A Study of Predictors of Smoking in Middle School Boys')

  • 김경희
    • 기본간호학회지
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    • 제13권1호
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    • pp.107-118
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    • 2006
  • Purpose: This study was done to identify the predictors of smoking in middle school boys'. A comprehensive analysis of individual, family and social environment-related factors was done. Method: The participants in this descriptive survey on causal relations were 318 students enrolled in middle schools who were selected by convenience sampling. The data collected from June to July 2003 were put in to logistic regression analysis to build a prediction model. Results: 1) Individual-related factors for smoking in middle school boys' were participation in drinking and deliilquent behavior 2) Family-related factors were ill-treatment physically of the types of ill-treatment and mother being unemployed. 3) Social environment/peer-related factors were friends' attitudes towards delinquency. Conclusion and Recommendations: The experience of smoking among Korean middle school boys was associated not only with individual factors, but also with family and social environmental factors. The findings of this study suggest that broad intervention program should be provided to prevent adolescent smoking. It is also recommended that a program be developed that can help control the variables identified in this study along with a follow up study to verify the model.

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여자 중학생의 흡연경험에 영향을 미치는 예측요인에 관한 연구 (A Study on Factors Affecting Experience of Smokingin Middle School Girls)

  • 김경희;정혜경
    • Child Health Nursing Research
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    • 제11권1호
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    • pp.14-22
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    • 2005
  • Purpose: This study was designed to identify the factors affecting the experience of smoking in middle school girls. A comprehensive analysis of individual and family factors was used. Method: The students in this descriptive survey on causal relations were 433 girls enrolled in middle schools selected by convenience sampling. The data were collected in November-December 2003 and logistic regression analysis was used to build a forecast model. Findings: The findings showed the following, 1) Individual factors such as grade, alcohol consumption, sexual experience and the frequency of exposure to pornographic materials, and 2) family factors such as parental living arrangement were significant factors. Conclusion and Recommendation: The experience of smoking among Korean middle school girls was associated not only with individual factors, but also with family factors, which exert a strong influence on health behavior. There is therefore a need for school-based smoking prevention programs, which deal comprehensively with these factors that influence smoking. It is recommended that a program be developed that will help to control the variables identified in this study along with follow?up study to verify the model.

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노인 우울에 영향을 미치는 요인: 건강요인과 가족요인의 상대적 영향력을 중심으로 (Relative Effects of Health and Family Factors on Geriatric Depression)

  • 이미애
    • 한국지역사회생활과학회지
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    • 제22권4호
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    • pp.623-635
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    • 2011
  • Over the past few decades, the proportion of elderly people with depression in Korea has been rapidly increasing. The purpose of this study is to explore relative effects of health and family factors on geriatric depression. The data sources are from Korean Longitudinal Study of Aging(2008). The Analysis sample consists of 4,040 cases. Analysis results show that there is a significant variability in geriatric depression according to sociodemographic characteristics, health characteristics, and family characteristics. Hierarchical logistic regression analyses are employed to assess the causal relationship between health characteristics and geriatric depression. Model II showed that ADL(exp(B)=1.732), having difficulties due to sight deterioration(exp(B)=1.398), having difficulties due to masticatory force deterioration(exp(B)=1.414), having difficulties due to pain(exp(B)=2.435), and subjective health status(exp(B)=2.010) are reported as predictors of geriatric depression. Namely, the probability of having geriatric depression of the above predictors has been 1.7 times, 1.4 times, 1.4 times, 2.4 times. 2.0 times higher than normal figures. Among health characteristics, pain is the most prevalent factor. Model III showed that as for family characteristics, coresiding with children(exp(B)=1.312) and frequency of contacting with children by phones, letters, or emails(exp(B)=1.477) are reported as predictors of geriatric depression. Key findings are that health factors have larger effects than family factors on geriatric depression.

Dynamic Interaction between Conditional Stock Market Volatility and Macroeconomic Uncertainty of Bangladesh

  • ALI, Mostafa;CHOWDHURY, Md. Ali Arshad
    • Asian Journal of Business Environment
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    • 제11권4호
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    • pp.17-29
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    • 2021
  • Purpose: The aim of this study is to explore the dynamic linkage between conditional stock market volatility and macroeconomic uncertainty of Bangladesh. Research design, data, and methodology: This study uses monthly data covering the time period from January 2005 to December 2018. A comprehensive set of macroeconomic variables, namely industrial production index (IP), consumer price index (CPI), broad money supply (M2), 91-day treasury bill rate (TB), treasury bond yield (GB), exchange rate (EX), inflow of foreign remittance (RT) and stock market index of DSEX are used for analysis. Symmetric and asymmetric univariate GARCH family of models and multivariate VAR model, along with block exogeneity and impulse response functions, are implemented on conditional volatility series to discover the possible interactions and causal relations between macroeconomic forces and stock return. Results: The analysis of the study exhibits time-varying volatility and volatility persistence in all the variables of interest. Moreover, the asymmetric effect is found significant in the stock return and most of the growth series of macroeconomic fundamentals. Results from the multivariate VAR model indicate that only short-term interest rate significantly influence the stock market volatility, while conditional stock return volatility is significant in explaining the volatility of industrial production, inflation, and treasury bill rate. Conclusion: The findings suggest an increasing interdependence between the money market and equity market as well as the macroeconomic fundamentals of Bangladesh.