• 제목/요약/키워드: Cash-Flow

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초고층 개발사업의 리스크 요인을 고려한 재무적 타당성 분석 (Financial Feasibility Study by Considering Risk Factors for High-Rise Development Project)

  • 전영준;조주현
    • 한국건설관리학회논문집
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    • 제18권4호
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    • pp.3-16
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    • 2017
  • 초고층 개발사업의 불확실한 리스크 요인을 고려한 재무타당성을 분석하기 위해 확률론적 접근방법을 통한 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 적용하기 위해서는 먼저 타당성 분석 시 고려되어야 하는 리스크 인자에 대한 식별이 이루어 져야 한다. 이 부분은 선행연구에서 식별된 초고층 개발사업의 단계별 리스크 요인들을 고려하고자 하며, 추출된 리스크 인자 중에서 개발사업의 수익을 저하시키는 리스크 인자들을 2차 식별하여 각 인자별 데이터의 특성을 잘 표현할 수 있는 확률분포를 추정하여 몬테카를로 시뮬레이션을 적용하였다. 이렇게 도출된 시뮬레이션 결과를 통하여 현실에서 사업타당성 검토 중인 여러 초고층 개발사업의 추후 운영 시 수익성을 예측하는 자료로 적용 가능한 대안을 찾아보고자 한다. 분석 결과, 아파트를 포함한 통합 현금흐름으로 추정한 초고층부의 평균 NPV와 IRR은 흑자 수익구조를 가지고 있다. 이는 아파트 분양수익으로 호텔 및 오피스에서 오는 적자를 상쇄시켜 주기 때문으로 보인다. 초고층부 시설 중 사업성에 미치는 영향력은 전망대 1차년도 매출액이 가장 크며, 다음으로 운영기간에 따른 오피스 공실률이 큰 영향을 미치고 있음을 알 수 있었다. 또한 초고층 개발사업의 수익성을 높이기 위한 최적의 포트폴리오 구성은 매우 중요함을 알 수 있다.

소유지배 괴리도가 주가급락위험에 미치는 영향 (The Effect of Control-Ownership Wedge on Stock Price Crash Risk)

  • 채수준;유혜영
    • 산경연구논집
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    • 제9권7호
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    • pp.53-59
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    • 2018
  • Purpose - This study examines the effect of control-ownership wedge on stock crash risk. In Korea, controlling shareholders have exclusive control rights compared to their cash flow rights. With increasing disparity, controlling shareholders abuse their power and extract private benefits at the expense of the minority shareholders. Managers who are controlling shareholders of the companies tend not to disclose critical information that would prevent them from pursuing private interests. They accumulate negative information in the firm. When the accumulated bad news crosses a tipping point, it will be suddenly released to the market at once, resulting in an abrupt decline in stock prices. We predict that stock price crash likelihood due to information opaqueness increases as the wedge increases. Research design, data, and methodology - 831 KOSPI-listed firm-year observations are from KisValue database from 2005 to 2011. Control-ownership wedge is measured as the ratio (UCO -UCF)/UCO where UCF(UCO) is the ultimate cash-flow(control) rights of the largest controlling shareholder. Dependent variable CRASH is a dummy variable that equals one if the firm has at least 1 crash week during a year, and zero otherwise. Logistic regression is used to examine the relationship between control-ownership wedge and stock price crash risk. Results - Using a sample of KOSPI-listed firms in KisValue database for the period 2005-2011, we find that stock price crash risk increases as the disparity increases. Specifically, we find that the coefficient of WEDGE is significantly positive, supporting our prediction. The result implies that as controlling shareholders' ownership increases, controlling shareholders tend to withhold bad news. Conclusions - Our results show that agency problems arising from the divergence between control rights and cash flow rights increase the opaqueness of accounting information. Eventually, the accumulated bad news is released all at once, leading to stock price crashes. It could be seen that companies with high control-ownership wedge are likely to experience future stock price crashes. Our study is related to a broader literature that examined the effect of the control-ownership wedge on stock markets. Our findings suggest that the disparity is a meaningful predictor for future stock price crash risk. The results are expected to provide useful implications for firms, regulators, and investors.

청년창업기업의 창업초기 생존전략 : 중진공 청년전용자금 활용기업 사례 (Youth Startup Firms: A Case Study on the Survival Strategy for Creating Business Performance)

  • 이승창;임원호;서응교
    • 유통과학연구
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    • 제12권6호
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    • pp.81-88
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    • 2014
  • Purpose - Entrepreneurship promotion is emerging as an important economic growth agenda. However, in Korea, entrepreneurship has weakened because of the collapse of the venture bubbles of the 2000s and the global economic recession in 2008, which have induced the business community to choose stability over risk. The Korean government has been implementing several support projects to inspire and promote youth entrepreneurship through various means including financial assistance; however, the perpetuation rate of young entrepreneurship is still low as compared to advanced economies such as the US and EU. This case study focuses on the Youth Start-Up Business Support Program of the Small & Medium Business Corporation, and explores practical alternatives. Further, it aims to suggest managerial factors and a conceptual model for change management factors affecting the business performance creation of a startup company, based on the Small and medium Business Corporation's young venture startup fund. Research design, data, and methodology - Many studies examine the current progress and issues of startup firms, for example, a lack of systematic cultivation of entrepreneurship and startup business training, lack of commercialization funding for youth startup businesses, lack of mentoring, and inadequate infrastructure. From prior research, we address four factors, namely, personal managerial capabilities, innovative business model, sufficient cash flow, and social network, affecting startup companies' business performance. This study involved a sample survey of 200 young entrepreneurs to investigate casual relations between the four factors and business performance. A regression analysis was used to verify the hypotheses. Results - First, in relation to differences in the founder's personal characteristics, age, sales amount, and number of employees significantly impact business performance. Second, regarding the causal relation between the four factors for creating business performance, an innovative business model and social networking have supported the hypotheses, revealing that the more that a start-up founder has an innovative business model and social networking, the more the start-up firms are likely to have better performance (e.g., sales volume, employment, ROE, ROI, etc.). Although the founder's competency and sufficient cash flow have no significant relationship with business performance, the mean value was higher performance for high founder's competency and sufficient cash flow. Conclusions - This study provides basic data on policy support strategies of the Small and Medium Business Corporation, to help young entrepreneurs achieve their start-up business goals. It shows that young entrepreneurship startup firms should strive to explore ideas to satisfy customers' needs, and that changes in customer value and the continuous innovation of business model differentiation are required to actively respond to change management. Moreover, at the infant startup stage, they should activate social network programs to share information, thereby offsetting resource scarcity and managing business risk. Further, the establishment of a long-term vision and the implementation of training programs in related specific fields should be supported to strengthen founders' personal capabilities.

회계이익 구성요소의 추가적 정보가치가 주식수익률에 미치는 영향 (The incremental information content of accruals components of earnings for stock return: Discretionary accruals and non-discretionary accruals)

  • 신현대
    • 정보학연구
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    • 제7권3호
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    • pp.19-36
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    • 2004
  • 본 연구에서는 회계이익을 구성요소별로 분리시켜 회계이익과 주가수익률간의 관계에서 영업현금흐름, 재량적 발생액, 비재량적 발생액, 및 비재량적 이익이 회계이익에 대해 추가적 정보효과를 제공하는지 여부를 한국자본시장의 자료를 이용하여 실증적으로 검증하였다. 이를 위해 회계이익을 영업현금흐름과 총발생액으로 구분하고, 다시 총발생액을 재량적 발생액과 비재량적 발생액으로 분리시켜, 종속변수를 초과수익률로 하고 독립변수에 각 회계이익의 구성요소들을 포함시키는 회귀분석방법으로 검증하였다. 표본기업은 1991년부터 2003년까지 연속된 자료를 이용할 수 있는 156개 기업을 대상으로 하였고, 1991년부터 2001년(10년간 통합된 1,580개 자료)까지는 비재량적 발생액의 추정기간으로 삼아 Jones모형(1991)을 이용한 산업-연도별 횡단면 회귀분석모형으로 추정한 다음에 2002, 2003년(2년간 통합된 316개 자료)을 검증기간으로 하여 총발생액을 재량적 발생액과 비재량적 발생액으로 분리시키는 방법을 사용하였다. 연구결과에 의하면, 회계이익의 구성요소들을 독립변수로 하고 주가수익률을 종속변수로 하는 다중회귀분석에서는 회계이익에 대해 영업현금흐름과 재량적 발생액은 추가적 정보가치가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 이는 재량적 발생액이 기업성과측정가설과 일치하는 것으로 해석할 수 있다. 또한 회계이익에 대해 비재량적 이익과 재량적 발생액도 추가적 정보가치가 있는 것으로 나타났다. 그리고 추가분석결과에서는 비재량적 발생액의 절대값의 크기가 큰 집단에서 유의한 양의 더미변수가 검증되었는데, 이는 비재량적 발생액의 절대적 크기가 클수록, 회계이익과 영업현금흐름에 대해서 순기능적인 추가 정보력을 제공하는 것을 나타낸다.

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생산투자수익률 계산방법에 대한 연구 (A Study on the Calculation of Productive Rate of Return)

  • 김진욱;김건우;김석곤
    • 산업경영시스템학회지
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    • 제38권3호
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    • pp.95-99
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    • 2015
  • The IRR(internal rate of return) is often used by investors for the evaluation of engineering projects. Unfortunately, it has serial flaws: (1) multiple real-valued IRRs may arise; (2) complex-valued IRRs may arise; (3) the IRR is, in special cases, incompatible with the net present value (NPV) in accept/reject decisions. The efforts of management scientists and economists in providing a reliable project rate of return have generated over the decades an immense amount of contributions aiming to solve these shortcomings. Especially, multiple internal rate of returns (IRRs) have a fatal flaw when we decide to accep it or not. To solve it, some researchers came up with external rate of returns (ERRs) such as ARR (Average Rate of Return) or MIRR (MIRR, Modified Internal Rate of Return). ARR or MIRR. will also always yield the same decision for a engineering project consistent with the NPV criterion. The ERRs are to modify the procedure for computing the rate of return by making explicit and consistent assumptions about the interest rate at which intermediate receipts from projects may be invested. This reinvestment could be either in other projects or in the outside market. However, when we use traditional ERRs, a volume of capital investment is still unclear. Alternatively, the productive rate of return (PRR) can settle these problems. Generally, a rate of return is a profit on an investment over a period of time, expressed as a proportion of the original investment. The time period is typically the life of a project. The PRR is based on the full life of the engineering project. but has been annualised to project one year. And the PRR uses the effective investment instead of the original investment. This method requires that the cash flow of an engineering project must be separated into 'investment' and 'loss' to calculate the PRR value. In this paper, we proposed a tabulated form for easy calculation of the PRR by modifing the profit and loss statement, and the cash flow statement.

기술 도입이 기업가치에 미치는 영향 (The Effect of Technology Outsourcing on Firm's Value)

  • 정진호
    • 기술혁신연구
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    • 제12권1호
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    • pp.49-65
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    • 2004
  • This study investigates the effect of technology outsourcing on the value of the firm in Korea. The result shows that the technology outsourcing in the high growth industries gives positive effects on the value of the firm. The results supports the investment opportunity hypothesis. With respect to the free cash flow hypothesis, this study finds no supporting evidences. The paper concludes that growth is the dominant factor for determining the effect of technology outsourcing on the value of the firm.

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기술 및 투자 가치평가를 위한 실무형 실물옵션 (Real Options for Practitioners on the Valuation of Technology and Investment)

  • 설성수;유창석
    • 기술혁신학회지
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    • 제5권1호
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    • pp.44-58
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    • 2002
  • There have been many solutions to overcome theoretical problems of the Discounted Cash Flow Methods, especially on the valuation of technology. Real Options are thought as a solution. There, however, are another problems in applying Real Options for the valuation of technology; diversity and complexity of models. This Paper recommends 5 models for the valuation of technology, especially for practitioners.

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경량전철 민자사업성분석을 위한 프로그램개발 (Development of Light Rail Transit Financial Analysis System for Private Sector)

  • 민재홍;이호
    • 한국철도학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 한국철도학회 2002년도 추계학술대회 논문집(I)
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    • pp.300-306
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    • 2002
  • To construct ligh rail transit, many local autonomous entities investigate the feasibility of project. Especially, many studies attempt to find the probability of private inducement and the method. The purpose of this paper is to develop the light rail transit financial analysis system for private sector, based on the procedure and the method of the financial analysis. This system consistes of the income and cost module. As a result, provide the cash flow, income statement and financial profit statement for the result. We hope that it is contributed to analyze the feasibility of the finance conveniently.

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프로젝트견적(見積)과 한계분석(限界分析) (Project Estimating and Marginal Analysis)

  • 박상민
    • 품질경영학회지
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    • 제14권2호
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    • pp.40-46
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    • 1986
  • The decision maker has the job of torecasting capital investments and operating expenses to aid the decision making in choosing and evaluating present and future alternatives. The estimating function eventually analysis, evaluates and choose the alternatives. The analysis stemmed originally from a preliminary design of some sort, and eventually plans are started to investigate investment possibilites. This study provide the descounted cash flow and the present worth method. Despite any choice of an analytical method, there remains the problem of predicting certain future events. Therefore, these models dealing with optimum plant sizing, equipment replacement, and lease or buy will be discussed.

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운전자본의 고정자산투자 스무딩효과의 실증적 분석 (An Empirical Analysis of Fixed Asset Investment Smoothing Effects of Working Capital)

  • 신민식;김수은;김공영
    • 재무관리연구
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    • 제25권4호
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    • pp.25-51
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    • 2008
  • 본 연구는 1986년 1월 1일부터 2007년 12월 31일까지 한국증권선물거래소의 유가증권시장에 상장된 기업을 대상으로 운전자본의 고정자산투자 스무딩효과를 실증분석 하였으며, 주요한 분석결과는 다음과 같다. 재무적 제약기업은 운전자본을 이용하여 고정자산투자를 스무딩할 수 있다. 외부에서 음(-)의 현금흐름 충격이 발생하면, 운전자본의 감소를 통해 고정자산투자를 스무딩하고, 양(+)의 현금흐름 충격이 발생하면, 운전자본의 증가를 통해 잉여현금흐름을 보관한다. 따라서 재무적 제약기업의 경우에, 운전자본은 고정자산투자에 유의한 음(-)의 영향을 미치며, 재무적 제약이 클수록 음(-)의 영향력은 더 커진다. 제무적 제약 정도는 배당지급 수준과 자본시장 접근성을 기준으로 측정할 수 있다. 저배당기업은 고배당기업보다 재무적 제약이 크며, 자본시장 비접근 기업은 접근기업보다 재무적 제약이 크다. 또한, 운전자본과 고정자산투자간의 내생성을 고려하더라도 운전자본의 고정자산투자 스무딩효과는 여전히 존재한다. 따라서 운전자본의 고정자산투자 스무딩효과는 통계적으로나 경제적으로 중요한 의미를 갖는다고 할 수 있다. 결론적으로, 한국증권선물거래소의 유가증권시장에 상장된 기업들은 비대칭정보 하에서 재무적제약을 받을 경우에, 운전자본을 사용하여 고정자산투자를 스무딩한다고 할 수 있다. 특히, 배당지급이 적은 저배당기업이나 자본시장에 접근이 용이하지 않은 비접근기업은 재무적 제약이 더 많기 때문에, 운전자본을 사용하여 고정자산투자를 스무딩 할 가능성이 많다. 따라서 기업 경영자들은 이러한 운전자본의 고정자산투자 스무딩효과를 고려하여 운전자본관리를 실천함으로써 기업가치를 극대화시킬 수 있다고 생각한다.

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