• Title/Summary/Keyword: Case Prediction

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A Study on the Aircraft Mission Reliability Prediction (항공기 임무신뢰도 예측 방안 연구)

  • Lee Joon-Woo;Ju Hyun-Joon;Lee Min-Koo
    • Journal of Applied Reliability
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    • v.6 no.2
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    • pp.115-134
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    • 2006
  • This paper deals with OO aircraft mission reliability prediction. To demonstrate user-required mission reliability, it is calculated with use general formulae which are used in reliability engineering. The mission reliability of OO aircraft is calculated in considering conversion factor (CF) on the each subsystems' MTBF. The prediction results are explained only the state at present time. Because these data are not real data in operational environments. Therefore, in the case of OO aircraft, it has to be needed collecting the real and renewal data which are operational and empirical. After that, continuing the data upgrading, it is easily closed to the more exact reliability value.

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A Study on the Prediction Methods of Domestic e-Commerce Market Size (국내전자상거래 시장규모 예측방법에 관한 연구)

  • Choi, Kyo-Won
    • The Journal of Society for e-Business Studies
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    • v.9 no.4
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    • pp.1-17
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    • 2004
  • We guarantee the significance of the provided prediction model and predicted figures from the experts consulting group and we product the prediction figures of the domestic e-commerce market size in future by business subjects, BtoB, BtoG and BtoC. Besides, we do predict by the high raked 6 merchandises in the case of BtoC market size prediction. We use the KNSO(Korea National Statistical Office) BtoB, BtoG and BtoC data to ensure the significance of data.

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A Performance-Oriented Intra-Prediction Hardware Design for H.264/AVC

  • Jin, Xianzhe;Ryoo, Kwangki
    • Journal of information and communication convergence engineering
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    • v.11 no.1
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    • pp.50-55
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    • 2013
  • In this paper, we propose a parallel intra-operation unit and a memory architecture for improving the performance of intra-prediction, which utilizes spatial correlation in an image to predict the blocks and contains 17 prediction modes in total. The design is targeted for portable devices applying H.264/AVC decoders. For boosting the performance of the proposed design, we adopt a parallel intra-operation unit that can achieve the prediction of 16 neighboring pixels at the same time. In the best case, it can achieve the computation of one luma $16{\times}16$ block within 16 cycles. For one luma $4{\times}4$ block, a mere one cycle is needed to finish the process of computation. Compared with the previous designs, the average cycle reduction rate is 78.01%, and the gate count is slightly reduced. The design is synthesized with the MagnaChip $0.18{mu}m$ library and can run at 125 MHz.

Geostatistical Integration of Different Sources of Elevation and its Effect on Landslide Hazard Mapping

  • Park, No-Wook;Kyriakidis, Phaedon C.
    • Korean Journal of Remote Sensing
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    • v.24 no.5
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    • pp.453-462
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    • 2008
  • The objective of this paper is to compare the prediction performances of different landslide hazard maps based on topographic data stemming from different sources of elevation. The geostatistical framework of kriging, which can properly integrate spatial data with different accuracy, is applied for generating more reliable elevation estimates from both sparse elevation spot heights and exhaustive ASTER-based elevation values. A case study from Boeun, Korea illustrates that the integration of elevation and slope maps derived from different data yielded different prediction performances for landslide hazard mapping. The landslide hazard map constructed by using the elevation and the associated slope maps based on geostatistical integration of spot heights and ASTER-based elevation resulted in the best prediction performance. Landslide hazard mapping using elevation and slope maps derived from the interpolation of only sparse spot heights showed the worst prediction performance.

Analysis of delay compensation in real-time dynamic hybrid testing with large integration time-step

  • Zhu, Fei;Wang, Jin-Ting;Jin, Feng;Gui, Yao;Zhou, Meng-Xia
    • Smart Structures and Systems
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    • v.14 no.6
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    • pp.1269-1289
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    • 2014
  • With the sub-stepping technique, the numerical analysis in real-time dynamic hybrid testing is split into the response analysis and signal generation tasks. Two target computers that operate in real-time may be assigned to implement these two tasks, respectively, for fully extending the simulation scale of the numerical substructure. In this case, the integration time-step of solving the dynamic response of the numerical substructure can be dozens of times bigger than the sampling time-step of the controller. The time delay between the real and desired feedback forces becomes more striking, which challenges the well-developed delay compensation methods in real-time dynamic hybrid testing. This paper focuses on displacement prediction and force correction for delay compensation in the real-time dynamic hybrid testing with a large integration time-step. A new displacement prediction scheme is proposed based on recently-developed explicit integration algorithms and compared with several commonly-used prediction procedures. The evaluation of its prediction accuracy is carried out theoretically, numerically and experimentally. Results indicate that the accuracy and effectiveness of the proposed prediction method are of significance.

An Application of Data Mining Techniques in Electronic Commerce (전자상거래에서 지식탐사기법의 활용에 관한 연구)

  • Sung Tae-Kyung;Chu Seok-Chin;Kim Joong-Han;Hong Jun-Seok
    • The Journal of Information Systems
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    • v.14 no.2
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    • pp.277-292
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    • 2005
  • This paper uses a data mining approach to develop bankruptcy prediction models suitable for traditional (off-line) companies and electronic (on-line) companies. It observes the differences in the composition prediction models between these two types of companies and provides interpretation of bankruptcy classifications. The bankruptcy prediction models revealed the major variables in predicting bankruptcy to be 'cash flow to total assets' and 'gross value-added to net sales' for traditional off-line companies while 'cash flow to liabilities','gross value-added to net sales', and 'current ratio' for electronic companies. The accuracy rates of final prediction models for traditional off-line and electronic companies were found to be $84.7\%\;and\;82.4\%$, respectively. When the model for traditional off-line companies was applied for electronic companies, prediction accuracy dropped significantly in the case of bankruptcy classification (from $70.4\%\;to\;45.2\%$) at the level of a blind guess ($41.30\%$). Therefore, the need for different models for traditional off-line and electronic companies is justified.

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A Study on the Maximizing Coverage for Recommender System

  • Lee, Hee-Choon;Lee, Seok-Jun;Park, Ji-Won;Kim, Chul-Seoung
    • 한국데이터정보과학회:학술대회논문집
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    • 2006.11a
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    • pp.119-128
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    • 2006
  • The similarity weight, the pearson's correlation coefficient, which is used in the recommender system has a weak point that it cannot predict all of the prediction value. The similarity weight, the vector similarity, has a weak point of the high MAE although the prediction coverage using the vector similarity is higher than that using the pearson's correlation coefficient. The purpose of this study is to suggest how to raise the prediction coverage. Also, the MAE using the suggested method in this study was compared both with the MAE using the pearson's correlation coefficient and with the MAE using the vector similarity, so was the prediction coverage. As a result, it was found that the low of the MAE in the case of using the suggested method was higher than that using the pearson's correlation coefficient. However, it was also shown that it was lower than that using the vector similarity In terms of the prediction coverage, when the suggested method was compared with two similarity weights as I mentioned above, it was found that its prediction coverage was higher than that pearson's correlation coefficient as well as vector similarity.

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Chaotic Prediction Based Channel Sensing in CR System (CR 시스템에서 Chaotic 예측기반 채널 센싱기법)

  • Gao, Xiang;Lee, Juhyeon;Park, Hyung-Kun
    • The Transactions of The Korean Institute of Electrical Engineers
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    • v.62 no.1
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    • pp.140-142
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    • 2013
  • Cognitive radio (CR) has been recently proposed to dynamically access unused-spectrum. Since the spectrum availability for opportunistic access is determined by spectrum sensing, sensing control is identified as one of the most crucial issues of cognitive radio networks. Out-of-band sensing to find an available channels to sense. Sensing is also required in case of spectrum hand-off. Sensing process needs to be done very fast in order to enhance the quality of service (QoS) of the CR nodes, and transmission not to be cut for longer time. During the sensing, the PU(primary user) detection probability condition should be satisfied. We adopt a channel prediction method to find target channels. Proposed prediction method combines chaotic global method and chaotic local method for channel idle probability prediction. Global method focus on channel history information length and order number of prediction model. Local method focus on local prediction trend. Through making simulation, Proposed method can find an available channel with very high probability, total sensing time is minimized, detection probability of PU's are satisfied.

Comparison of Measurement Methods and Prediction Models for Drying Shrinkage of Concrete (콘크리트 건조수축 측정 방법 및 예측 모델에 대한 비교)

  • Yang, Eun-Ik;Kim, Il-Sun;Yi, Seong-Tae;Lee, Kwang-Myong
    • Journal of the Korea Concrete Institute
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    • v.22 no.1
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    • pp.85-91
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    • 2010
  • In this study, the drying shrinkage strains were compared of 24~60 MPa concrete specimens subjected to various curing conditions and measurement methods were compared. And, the applicability of the test and prediction methods were investigated. According to the results, drying shrinkage was significantly reduced in 28 day curing condition. In the sealed curing case, drying shrinkage strain from demolding time was identical to the one of the standard curing case for low strength concrete, however, drying shrinkage strain was greatly increased than the standard case for high strength case because of the effect of autogenous shrinkage. The efficient measurement was possible using the embedded gage for concrete drying shrinkage, but, the measured value by contact gage was lower than the one by the embedded gage. The test results agreed with EC2 model better than the other.

Pecking Order Prediction of Debt Changes and Its Implication for the Retail Firm (부채변화에 대한 순서이론 예측력 검정 및 유통기업의 함의)

  • Lee, Jeong-Hwan;Liu, Won-Suk
    • Journal of Distribution Science
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    • v.13 no.10
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    • pp.73-82
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    • 2015
  • Purpose - This paper aims to investigate whether information asymmetry could explain capital structures in Korean corporations. According to Myers (1984), firms prefer internal funding to external financing due to the costs associated with information asymmetry. When external financing is necessary, firms prefer to issue debt rather than equity by the same reasoning. Since Shyam-Sunder and Myers (1999), numerous studies continue to debate the validity of the theory. In this paper, we show how the theory depends on assumptions and incorporated variables. We hope our investigation can provide helpful implications regarding capital structure, information asymmetry, and other firm characteristics. Specifically, our empirical results are complementary to the analysis of Son and Lee's (2015), a recent study that examines the pecking order theory prediction for Korean retail firms. Research design, data, and methodology - We test empirical models that are some variants of model used in Shyam-Sunder and Myers (1999). The financial and accounting data are provided by WISEfn for the firms listed on the KOSPI during 1990 to 2013. Bond ratings are supplied by the Korea Investor Service (KIS). We take into account the heterogeneity in debt capacity; a firm's debt capacity is measured by using the method of Lemmon and Zender (2010) based on its bond ratings. Finally, we estimate empirical models suggested by Shyam-Sunder and Myers (1999), Frank and Goyal (2003), and Lemmon and Zender (2010). Results - First, we find that Shyam-Sunder and Myers' (1999) prediction fails to explain total debt changes of Korean firms. Second, we find a non-monotonic relationship between total debt changes and financial deficits with respect to debt capacity. This contradicts the prediction of Lemmon and Zender (2010) that argues the pecking order theory survives with a monotonically increasing relationship. Third, we estimate a negative correlation coefficient between financial deficit and current debt changes. The result is the complete opposite of the prediction of Lemmon and Zender (2010). Finally, we also confirm the non-monotonic relationship between non-current debt changes and financial deficits with respect to debt capacity. Yet, the slope of coefficient is smaller than that of total debt change case. Indeed, the results are, to some extent, consistent with the prediction of pecking order theory, if we exclude the mid-debt capacity firms. Conclusions - Our empirical results complementary to the analysis of Son and Lee (2015), a recent study focusing on capital structure in Korean retail firms; their paper suggests interesting topics regarding capital structure, information asymmetry, and other firm characteristics in Korean corporations. Contrary to Son and Lee (2015), our results show that total debt changes and current debt changes are inconsistent with the prediction of Shyam-Sunder and Myers (1999). However, similar to Son and Lee (2015), non-current debt changes are consistent with the pecking order prediction, in the case of excluding the mid-level debt capacity firms. This contrast allows us to infer that industry characteristics significantly affect the validity of the pecking order prediction. Further studies are needed to analyze the economics behind this phenomenon, which is beyond the scope of our paper. In addition, the estimation bias potentially matters regarding the firm-level debt capacity calculation. We also reserve this topic for future research.