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Corporate Bond Rating Using Various Multiclass Support Vector Machines (다양한 다분류 SVM을 적용한 기업채권평가)

  • Ahn, Hyun-Chul;Kim, Kyoung-Jae
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.19 no.2
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    • pp.157-178
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    • 2009
  • Corporate credit rating is a very important factor in the market for corporate debt. Information concerning corporate operations is often disseminated to market participants through the changes in credit ratings that are published by professional rating agencies, such as Standard and Poor's (S&P) and Moody's Investor Service. Since these agencies generally require a large fee for the service, and the periodically provided ratings sometimes do not reflect the default risk of the company at the time, it may be advantageous for bond-market participants to be able to classify credit ratings before the agencies actually publish them. As a result, it is very important for companies (especially, financial companies) to develop a proper model of credit rating. From a technical perspective, the credit rating constitutes a typical, multiclass, classification problem because rating agencies generally have ten or more categories of ratings. For example, S&P's ratings range from AAA for the highest-quality bonds to D for the lowest-quality bonds. The professional rating agencies emphasize the importance of analysts' subjective judgments in the determination of credit ratings. However, in practice, a mathematical model that uses the financial variables of companies plays an important role in determining credit ratings, since it is convenient to apply and cost efficient. These financial variables include the ratios that represent a company's leverage status, liquidity status, and profitability status. Several statistical and artificial intelligence (AI) techniques have been applied as tools for predicting credit ratings. Among them, artificial neural networks are most prevalent in the area of finance because of their broad applicability to many business problems and their preeminent ability to adapt. However, artificial neural networks also have many defects, including the difficulty in determining the values of the control parameters and the number of processing elements in the layer as well as the risk of over-fitting. Of late, because of their robustness and high accuracy, support vector machines (SVMs) have become popular as a solution for problems with generating accurate prediction. An SVM's solution may be globally optimal because SVMs seek to minimize structural risk. On the other hand, artificial neural network models may tend to find locally optimal solutions because they seek to minimize empirical risk. In addition, no parameters need to be tuned in SVMs, barring the upper bound for non-separable cases in linear SVMs. Since SVMs were originally devised for binary classification, however they are not intrinsically geared for multiclass classifications as in credit ratings. Thus, researchers have tried to extend the original SVM to multiclass classification. Hitherto, a variety of techniques to extend standard SVMs to multiclass SVMs (MSVMs) has been proposed in the literature Only a few types of MSVM are, however, tested using prior studies that apply MSVMs to credit ratings studies. In this study, we examined six different techniques of MSVMs: (1) One-Against-One, (2) One-Against-AIL (3) DAGSVM, (4) ECOC, (5) Method of Weston and Watkins, and (6) Method of Crammer and Singer. In addition, we examined the prediction accuracy of some modified version of conventional MSVM techniques. To find the most appropriate technique of MSVMs for corporate bond rating, we applied all the techniques of MSVMs to a real-world case of credit rating in Korea. The best application is in corporate bond rating, which is the most frequently studied area of credit rating for specific debt issues or other financial obligations. For our study the research data were collected from National Information and Credit Evaluation, Inc., a major bond-rating company in Korea. The data set is comprised of the bond-ratings for the year 2002 and various financial variables for 1,295 companies from the manufacturing industry in Korea. We compared the results of these techniques with one another, and with those of traditional methods for credit ratings, such as multiple discriminant analysis (MDA), multinomial logistic regression (MLOGIT), and artificial neural networks (ANNs). As a result, we found that DAGSVM with an ordered list was the best approach for the prediction of bond rating. In addition, we found that the modified version of ECOC approach can yield higher prediction accuracy for the cases showing clear patterns.

Neighborhood Park Design for Railroad Station in Uijeongbu City (의정부 역전 근린공원 설계)

  • Kwon, Jin-Wook
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Landscape Architecture
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    • v.38 no.4
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    • pp.64-74
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    • 2010
  • The study is based on an urban park design that is designed in consideration of the characteristics of Uijeongbu City, applied with adequate functions for the environment and showcasing the unique scenery in relation to the relocation of the US Air Force Camp Falling Water. The bases of the design are: the reasonable convergence of the square and park in consideration of the site characteristics; the application of an urban context as the park is located near a station; and the realization of an eco-friendly space. This study is based on foundation research regarding a review of urban square patterns, particular items in planning in relation to modern urban parks and the adaptability of the park in the future. Regarding space usage, the design is applied with notable ideas that allow the space to make its own characteristics through voluntary user activity in conjunction with the environment that will allow the park to cope with changes in the future, as opposed to a space that users experience through pre-determined programs. Below are the focal points of the design. First, the park is designed as an empty space which may accommodate the urban structural context of and usage patterns for being a field of the city ecology that changes and develops, beyond a passively-created square pattern. Such open spaces have a continuity which allows it to adapt to the development of the city. In addition, the design facilitates spontaneous processes through changes in usage pattern and time. Second, the design includes the message that the park and the city, natural things and artificial things, must communicate and network with each other. Hence the park shall not be an isolated green island within the city, but is an open space accommodating the demands for open area from nearby commercial, public and residential facilities; the park shall include a field that can accommodate a variety of programs. Third, the park is designed to encourage the effect of direct and indirect practical education by reflecting a physical plan as well as interesting experience design methods to lower carbon emissions and to create and maintain an eco-friendly space, the basis of a zero-emissions city.

A Study on Estimating Optimal Tonnage of Coastal Cargo Vessels in Korea (우리나라 연안화물선의 적정선복량 추정에 관한 연구)

  • 이청환;이철영
    • Journal of the Korean Institute of Navigation
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    • v.13 no.1
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    • pp.21-53
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    • 1989
  • In the past twenty years, there has been a rapid increase in the volume of traffic in Korea due to the Korean great growth of the Korean economy. Since transformation provides an infrastructure vital to economic growth, it becomes more and more an integral part of the Korea economy. The importance of coastal shipping stands out in particular, not only because of the expansion limit on the road network, but also because of saturation in the capacity of rail transportation. In spite of this increase and its importance, coastal shipping is falling behind partly because it is givenless emphasis than ocean-going shipping and other inland transportation systems and partly because of overcompetition due to excessive ship tonnage. Therefore, estimating and planning optimum ship tonnage is the first take to develop Korean coastal shipping. This paper aims to estimate the optimum coastal ship tonnage by computer simulation and finally to draw up plans for the ship tonnage balance according to supply and demand. The estimation of the optimum ship tonnage is peformed by the method of Origin -Destimation and time series analysis. The result are as follows : (1) The optimum ship tonnage in 1987 was 358, 680 DWT, which is 54% of the current ship tonnage (481 ships, 662, 664DWT) that is equal to the optimum ship tonnage in 1998. this overcapacity result is in excessive competition and financial difficulties in Korea coastal shipping. (2) The excessive ship tonnage can be broken down into ship types as follows : oil carrier 250, 926 DWT(350%), cement carrier 9, 977 DWT(119%), iron material/machinery carrier 25, 665 DWT(117%), general cargo carrier 17, 416DWT(112%). (3) the current total ship crew of 5, 079 is more than the verified optimally efficient figure of 3, 808 by 1271. (4) From the viewpoint of management strategy, it is necessary that excessive ship tonnage be reduced and uneconomic outdated vessels be broken up. And its found that the diversion into economically efficient fleets is urgently required in order to meet increasing annual rate in the amounts of cargo(23, 877DWT). (5) The plans for the ship tonnage balance according to supply and demand are as follows 1) The establishment of a legislative system for the arrangement of ship tonnage. This would involve; (a) The announcement of an optimum tonnage which guides the licensing of cargo vessels and ship tonnage supply. (b) The establishment of an organization that substantially arrangement tonnage in Korea coastal shipping. 2) The announcement of an optimum ship tonnage both per year and short-term that guides current tonnage supply plans. 3) The settlement of elastic tariffs resulting in the protect6ion of coastal shipping's share from other tonnage supply plans. 4) The settlement of elastic tariffs resulting in the protection of coastal shipping's share from other transportation systems. 4) Restriction of ocean-going vessels from participating in coastal shipping routes. 5) Business rationalization of coastal shipping company which reduces uneconomic outdated vessels and boosts the national economy. If we are to achieve these ends, the followings are prerequisites; I) Because many non-licensed vessels are actually operating and threatening the safe voyage of the others in Korea coastal routes, it is necessary that those ind of vessels be controlled and punished by the authorities. II) The supply of ship tonnage in Korean coastal routes should be predently monitored because most of the coastal vessels are to small to be diverted into ocean-going routes in case of excessive supply. III) Every ship type which is engaged in coastal shipping should be specialized according to the characteristics of its routes as soon possible.

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Characteristics of Pinewood Nematode Trapping by Nematophagous Arthrobotrys spp. (선충포획성 Arthrobotrys속균에 의한 소나무재선충 포획 특성)

  • Lee, Gak-Jung;Koo, Chang-Duck;Sung, Joo-Han
    • The Korean Journal of Mycology
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    • v.36 no.2
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    • pp.153-162
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    • 2008
  • Pinewood nematode (PWN) trapping by nematophagous fungi, Arthrobotrys conoides, A. dactyloides and A. oligospora and the fungal growth were characterized. The three Arthrobotrys species each was inoculated into the PWN cultured on Botrytis cinera fungal colony on potato dextrose agar (PDA). The effects of temperature, pH, PWN inoculation density and nutrients on the growth of the three Arthrobotrys spp were measured. A. conoides grew fast, 13.9 mm/day while A. dactyloides grew slow, 3 mm/day. PDA medium was the best for the fungal growth at $25^{\circ}C$ and pH 4.5. The Arthrobotrys spp growth was stimulated by 500 nematodes inoculation but not by 1000 inoculation. A. dactyloides did not grow below pH 4.5 and at high PWN density. A. conoides and A oligospora formed trapping organs with thick constricting hyphal network only when PWN present, while A. dactyloides formed the organ with circular hyphae constitutively. A. conoides formed trapping organs faster than A. oligospora did. The nematode trapping hyphae of the fungi penetrated into PNW inside to form many tiny infection bulbs and to digest the nematode. However, A. dactyloides formed a few trapping organs but no trapping was observed. Infection rate of PWN was 95% by A. conoides, 80% by A. oligospora and 92% by the combination inoculation of A. conoides and A. oligospora. In contrast A. dactyloides increased PWN density without infecton. There was no interaction effect in any combination inoculation of the three Arthrobotrys spp. A. conoides enhanced PWN infection rate by rapid hyphal growth and early trapping, while A. oligospora did it by increasing hyphal density. In conclusion A. conoides is the most effective in both hyphal growth and infection, and thus these characteristics can be utilized as a biological control of PWN.

A Study on Management Measures of Street Vendors in the Vicinity of Traditional Markets (전통시장 및 인접구역의 생계형 노점상 관리방안에 관한 연구)

  • Kim, Young-Ki
    • Journal of Distribution Research
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    • v.15 no.5
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    • pp.155-174
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    • 2010
  • In many cases, street vendors are means of living and/or a solution to unemployment for low income group. Street vendors have both of positive and negative effects on traditional market revitalization. This two-sided perspective of the vendors has produced different views of interests groups. In this study, the features of street vendors are examined to present related issues, and a survey result conducted on interests groups is presented to offer effective management measures. As traditional management about street vendors are focused on crackdown, relationship between street traders and government has been not very much mutually cooperative, and at times some traders organized groups who are against government policies. With the premise admitting street vendors as one element of distribution network, it is possible to access the management measures for street vendors in organizational, quantitative or qualitative perspectives. However, I believe it is not recommendable to enforce multi-perspective approach at a time. It is because street traders still have quite strong animosity against government policies. Therefore, serious misunderstanding and side-effects on our society could be brought if the government makes hasty and forcible attempts to legalize street vendors. In political position, overreaching actions of government could hardly produce positive results because policy making and its enforcement need each of timeliness. In a similar way, government's policies for street vendors need to come into effect gradually. Management measures for street vendors can come in short-, mid- and long-term. In short-term, government should try to reduce animosity of street traders along with minimizing institutional and political pressure on them. As a mid-term solution, plans to bring vendors over to institutional boundaries by improving them are required. Last but not least, in the long term, government should design policies which are to help street vendors settle down and maintain successfully in the boundaries. Besides, policies related to street vendors need to come in effect in a way that closely connected to interests groups and businesses because those policies would get involve many interests groups and businesses in diverse perspectives.

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The Future of Radio and its Role in the Era of Smart Media (스마트미디어 시대 속 라디오의 미래와 역할 고찰)

  • KWON, Youngsung;SONG, Haeryong
    • Trans-
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    • v.1
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    • pp.117-139
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    • 2016
  • Radio, the first broadcasting medium in history, is also the first mobile medium that meets the currently mobile ecology based on mobile communications network. As a result, it is easily approachable to consumers, can easily engage individual consumers, and its program contents have a huge appealing power to individual listeners, allowing it to form intimacy with audiences at the closest distance. However, the listening rating of radio has decreased greatly because it has experienced various changes by many other competitive media such as TV and internet and it has been influenced by relative constant hypothesis. Also, radio now faces a bigger competition due to the emergence of smartphone. In this circumstance, radio showed movements to evolve into a digital radio that presents improved sound, strengthened reception power, and increased number of channels, but it suddenly changed to DMB and portable multimedia DMB is having huge problems in its marketability due to smartphone. Yet, the listening rating of analogue radio broadcasting that remained unchanged was 13.99% in 2014, an increase by 47% from 2011, and the percentage of listeners under the age of 18 increased by 2.4 times from 2011 to 2014, which was a unique and interesting phenomenon. Accordingly, this paper compared the characteristics of internet and radio that have the traits of daily life, information, individuality, participatory, adventurousness, alternative media, expertise, and sound media. The paper then examined the listening method of radio, in which the direct groundwave antenna reception through a vehicular device is the most common form during the use of transportation means. Finally, it sought to investigate the future of radio based on the understanding of the increase in radio listening ratings, especially by comparing it to the characteristics of smart generation that focus on smartphone and the internet The study results demonstrated that entertainment and amusements are attempting at changes while they used to be obtained selectively by the smart generation from fragmentary information. In addition, radio is expected to become an influential medium in the future through its advantages of 'selected information' and reliability. However, considering such possibilities, radio needs to build the expertise and reliability of broadcasting contents much more at the same time as its digitalization, and it will be able to have its own competitiveness by focusing on various experiences and cultural exposures.

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Evaluation on Removal Efficiency of Methylene Blue Using Nano-ZnO/Laponite/PVA Photocatalyzed Adsorption Ball (Nano-ZnO/Laponite/PVA 광촉매 흡착볼의 메틸렌블루 제거효율 평가)

  • Oh, Ju Hyun;Ahn, Hosang;Jang, Dae Gyu;Ahn, Chang Hyuk;Lee, Saeromi;Joo, Jin Chul
    • Journal of Korean Society of Environmental Engineers
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    • v.35 no.9
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    • pp.636-642
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    • 2013
  • In order to overcome drawbacks (i.e., filtration and recovery) of conventional powder type photocatalysts, nano-ZnO/Laponite/PVA (ZLP) photocatalyzed adsorption balls were developed by using in situ mixing of nanoscale ZnO as a photocatalyst, and Laponite as both adsorbent and supporting media in deionized water, followed by the poly vinyl alcohol polymerization with boric acid. The optimum mixing ratio of nano-ZnO:Laponite:PVA:deionized water was found to be 3:1:1:16 (by weight), and the mesh and film produced by PVA polymerization with boric acid might inhibit both swelling of Laponite and detachment of nanoscale ZnO from ZLP balls. Drying ZLP balls with microwave (600 watt) was found to produce ZLP balls with stable structure in water, and various sizes (55~500 ${\mu}m$) of pore were found to be distributed based on SEM and TEM results. In the initial period of reaction (i. e., 40 min), adsorption through ionic interaction between methylene blue and Laponite was the main removal mechanism. After the saturation of methylene blue to available adsorption sites for Laponite, the photocatalytic degradation of methylene blue occurred. The effective removal of methylene blue was attributed to adsorption and photocatalytic degradation. Based on the results from this study, synthesized ZLP photocatalyzed adsorption balls were expected to remove recalcitrant organic compounds effectively through both adsorption and photocatalytic degradation, and the risks of environmental receptors caused by detachment of nanoscale photocatalysts can be reduced.

A Study for Factors Influencing the Usage Increase and Decrease of Mobile Data Service: Based on The Two Factor Theory (모바일 데이터 서비스 사용량 증감에 영향을 미치는 요인들에 관한 연구: 이요인 이론(Two Factor Theory)을 바탕으로)

  • Lee, Sang-Hoon;Kim, Il-Kyung;Lee, Ho-Geun;Park, Hyun-Jee
    • Asia pacific journal of information systems
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    • v.17 no.2
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    • pp.97-122
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    • 2007
  • Conventional networking and telecommunications infrastructure characterized by wires, fixed location, and inflexibility is giving way to mobile technologies. Numerous research reports point to the ultimate domination of wireless communication. With the increasing prevalence of advanced cell-phones, various mobile data services (hereafter MDS) are gaining popularity. Although cellular networks were originally introduced for voice communications, statistics indicate that data services are replacing the matured voice service as the growth engine for telecom service providers. For example, SK Telecom, the Korea's largest mobile service provider, reported that 25.6% of revenue and 28.5% of profit came from MDS in 2006 and the share is growing. Statistics also indicate that, in 2006, the average revenue per user (ARPU) for voice didn't change but MDS grew seven percents from the previous year, further highlighting its growth potential. MDS is defined "as an assortment of digital data services that can be accessed using a mobile device over a wide geographic area." A variety of MDS have been deployed, with a few reaching the status of killer applications. Many of them need to access the Internet through the cellular-phone infrastructure. In the past, when the cellular network didn't have acceptable bandwidth for data services, SMS (short messaging service) dominated MDS. Now, Internet-ready, next-generation cell-phones are driving rich digital data services into the fabric of everyday life, These include news on various topics, Internet search, mapping and location-based information, mobile banking and gaming, downloading (i.e., screen savers), multimedia streaming, and various communication services (i.e., email, short messaging, messenger, and chaffing). The huge economic stake MDS has on its stakeholders warrants focused research to understand associated dynamics behind its adoption. Lyytinen and Yoo(2002) pointed out the limitation of traditional adoption models in explaining the rapid diffusion of innovations such as P2P or mobile services. Also, despite the increasing popularity of MDS, unexpected drop in its usage is observed among some people. Intrigued by these observations, an exploratory study was conducted to examine decision factors of MDS usage. Data analysis revealed that the increase and decrease of MDS use was influenced by different forces. The findings of the exploratory study triggered our confirmatory research effort to validate the uni-directionality of studied factors in affecting MDS usage. This differs from extant studies of IS/IT adoption that are largely grounded on the assumption of bi-directionality of explanatory variables in determining the level of dependent variables (i.e., user satisfaction, service usage). The research goal is, therefore, to examine if increase and decrease in the usage of MDS are explained by two separate groups of variables pertaining to information quality and system quality. For this, we investigate following research questions: (1) Does the information quality of MDS increase service usage?; (2) Does the system quality of MDS decrease service usage?; and (3) Does user motivation for subscribing MDS moderate the effect information and system quality have on service usage? The research questions and subsequent analysis are grounded on the two factor theory pioneered by Hertzberg et al(1959). To answer the research questions, in the first, an exploratory study based on 378 survey responses was conducted to learn about important decision factors of MDS usage. It revealed discrepancy between the influencing forces of usage increase and those of usage decrease. Based on the findings from the exploratory study and the two-factor theory, we postulated information quality as the motivator and system quality as the de-motivator (or hygiene) of MDS. Then, a confirmative study was undertaken on their respective role in encouraging and discouraging the usage of mobile data service.

A Study on the Component-based GIS Development Methodology using UML (UML을 활용한 컴포넌트 기반의 GIS 개발방법론에 관한 연구)

  • Park, Tae-Og;Kim, Kye-Hyun
    • Journal of Korea Spatial Information System Society
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    • v.3 no.2 s.6
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    • pp.21-43
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    • 2001
  • The environment to development information system including a GIS has been drastically changed in recent years in the perspectives of the complexity and diversity of the software, and the distributed processing and network computing, etc. This leads the paradigm of the software development to the CBD(Component Based Development) based object-oriented technology. As an effort to support these movements, OGC has released the abstract and implementation standards to enable approaching to the service for heterogeneous geographic information processing. It is also common trend in domestic field to develop the GIS application based on the component technology for municipal governments. Therefore, it is imperative to adopt the component technology considering current movements, yet related research works have not been made. This research is to propose a component-based GIS development methodology-ATOM(Advanced Technology Of Methodology)-and to verify its adoptability through the case study. ATOM can be used as a methodology to develop component itself and enterprise GIS supporting the whole procedure for the software development life cycle based on conventional reusable component. ATOM defines stepwise development process comprising activities and work units of each process. Also, it provides input and output, standardized items and specs for the documentation, detailed instructions for the easy understanding of the development methodology. The major characteristics of ATOM would be the component-based development methodology considering numerous features of the GIS domain to generate a component with a simple function, the smallest size, and the maximum reusability. The case study to validate the adoptability of the ATOM showed that it proves to be a efficient tool for generating a component providing relatively systematic and detailed guidelines for the component development. Therefore, ATOM would lead to the promotion of the quality and the productivity for developing application GIS software and eventually contribute to the automatic production of the GIS software, the our final goal.

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Effectiveness Analysis and Application of Phosphorescent Pavement Markings for Improving Visibility (축광노면표시 시인성 개선에 따른 경제성 분석 및 적용방안)

  • Yi, Yongju;Lee, Kyujin;Kim, Sangtae;Choi, Keechoo
    • KSCE Journal of Civil and Environmental Engineering Research
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    • v.37 no.5
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    • pp.815-825
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    • 2017
  • Visibility of lane marking is impaired at night or in the rain, which thereby threatens traffic safety. Recently, various studies and technologies have been developed to improve lane marking visibility, such as the extension of lane marking life expectancy (up to 1.5 times), improvement of lane marking equipment productivity, improvement of lane marking visibility by applying phosphorescent material mixed paint. Cost-benefit analysis was performed with considering various benefit items that can be expected. About 45% of traffic accidents would be prevented by improving lane marking visibility. Additionally, accident reduction benefit and traffic congestion reduction benefit were calculated as much as 246 billion KRW per year and 12 billion KRW per year, respectively, by reducing repaint cycle due to enhanced durability. 45 billion KRW per year is expected to reduced with improved lane detection performance of autonomous vehicle. Meanwhile, total increased cost when introducing phosphorescent material mixed paint to 91,195km of nationwide road is identified as 1922 billion KRW per year. However, economic feasibility could not be secured with 0.16 of cost-benefit ratio when applied to the road network as a whole. In case of "Accident Hot Spot" analyzing section window (400m), one or more fatality or two or more injured (one or more injured in case of less than 2 lanes per direction) per year were caused by pavement marking related accident, economic feasibility was secured. In detail, 3.91 of cost-benefit ratio is estimated with comparison of the installation cost for 5,697 of accident hot spot and accident reduction benefit. Some limitations and future research agenda have also been discussed.